What to look for in the 2015 nominees

When this past year’s inductees were announced, I did an analysis about it overall, explaining why it was so hard to make good picks.  There were so many trends in voting and it was impossible to satisfy all of them without a class of at least nine Performer inductees, which of course did not happen.  We face the same conundrum again this year.  A lot of factors one would expect to coalesce a certain way can’t all coalesce together.  In short, it’s time to explain why it’s difficult for some of us to solidify our final predictions for this year.

The first big trend is that of the newly eligible shoo-in.  This year that definitely seems to be Green Day… at first glance.  The truth is, what made Guns N’ Roses, Public Enemy, and Nirvana shoo-ins were that they all finished strongly as highly deserving artists, especially compared with the rest of their respective ballots.  That surprisingly has not been the case this year with Green Day.  Everyone seems to agree that Green Day is most likely going to get in this year, yet most people don’t even rank Green Day among the top five deserving artists, though some do.  Most folks place Green Day somewhere in the middle, or exactly in the middle as I did.  Meanwhile, the also-newly-eligible underdog that most feel has no chance of getting in this time has captured the fan vote and is generally considered more deserving.  Could Nine Inch Nails pull off the upset?  Or could the unthinkable happen and both make it?  Unlikely, but that’s one trend we’re dealing with.

Another one is that of recent death.  This favors Lou Reed, as does the Hall’s general enjoyment of having multiple-time inductees, which in addition to Lou Reed also favors Sting, and maybe even War, depending on where they’ll fall on the Eric Burdon issue.  The blues influence supports both the Paul Butterfield Blues Band and Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble.  The guitar god trend supports Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble even more, but also to a lesser extent Green Day, Nine Inch Nails, the Smiths, and Joan Jett And The Blackhearts.  We also see that since Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five got inducted, the Hall doesn’t let a dry spell happen of three years without a rap inductee.  That bodes well for N.W.A., as does the fact they’re the only rap act on the ballot.  And let’s not forget the love of singer/songwriters, which is good news for Bill Withers, or Lou Reed or Sting to a lesser extent.  As the Digital Dream Door site noted, the Hall also almost never goes a year without a ‘60s act, which most strongly favors the Marvelettes, but also the Paul Butterfield Blues Band and partially the Spinners (though they were more prominent in the ‘70s).

So those are some trends that favor induction, but what about those that don’t?  For starters, it has become increasingly difficult for any form of R&B that isn’t guitar-driven to get in the Hall lately.  This is a problem for Bill Withers, the Marvelettes, the Spinners, N.W.A., and most of all, Chic.  Also bad news for Chic is the struggle for any kind of dance or disco music to get recognition, which also negatively affects Kraftwerk.  80’s alternative has been snubbed in the past with the Cure and the Replacements getting shut out.  The Smiths’ chances don’t look as good when you consider that. 

Probably the most important trends to look at, though, are three that we’re seeing in the most recent years: the move to modern music, the populist push, and the need for names.  The move to modern music most notably acknowledges the move away from the ‘50s and ‘60s in recent years.  The ‘70s, however, are still pretty en vogue with the Hall, though more so for 70’s acts that stayed strong in the ‘80s.  The biggest benefactors of this trend would be Green Day, Nine Inch Nails, N.W.A., the Smiths, Joan Jett And The Blackhearts, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, and Sting.

The populist push, most closely tied to commercial success and chart presence, was perhaps most prominent last year with Daryl Hall And John Oates, KISS, and Linda Ronstadt all making the grade, those three names being the top three names in commercial success for both singles and albums, though the orders differed.  The year before that saw singles juggernaut Donna Summer, albums ultraheavyweight Rush, and perfect mix between the two Heart all get in.  If this trend continues, the smart money will be on the Spinners for singles, War for albums, and possibly both Sting and Green Day as acts who ride high in both columns.

Lastly, the need for names.  This one’s closely tied to the populist push, but doesn’t necessitate sales.  The Hall wants their museum packed with tourists and their broadcasts to get big ratings, so big names are needed.  Sting is the clear frontrunner on this one, Green Day, Lou Reed, and maybe also the Smiths trailing not too far behind.  Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble will also have some clout in this category as well.

Those three trends seem to have been the biggest driving forces in the Rock Hall’s selection processes the past few years.  If they continue to dominate, the strongest possibilities will be Sting, Green Day, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, the Spinners, War, and possibly the Smiths as a sixth.  Is that an official prediction on my part?  It could be, but not yet.  Heck, even I don’t know yet.  As I said in the first paragraph, this entry is partially an explanation as to why I haven’t made up my freggin’ mind and cast an official prediction yet.

Why we vote how we vote.

After having devised the pecking orders for the 2015 nominees, it stands to reason that we could accurately peg how one (in this case I) would vote if given a ballot, or in their (my) contribution to the fan ballot on the Rock Hall website.

On paper, it seems fairly simple: some hybrid of the merits and tastes.  And for the most part, it does indeed work that way.  Looking at my lists of both merits and personal taste, I see that both the Smiths and Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble make the top five in both categories.  Naturally, both of those go on my ballot.  The Marvelettes just missed the Top 5 on one and just made the Top 5 on the other, so they’d probably get my vote as well.  Despite being in the bottom half of merit, they ran second in taste, so the Spinners have an average that’s tied with the Marvelettes, and would get the vote from me as well.  The fifth highest average of merit and preference is N.W.A, who despite being in the bottom five for personal enjoyment, are a solid second in terms of deserving induction.  So, reasonably, I should be casting my ballot for Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, the Smiths, the Marvelettes, the Spinners, and N.W.A.

Pretty simple, right?  And if that were the class that was inducted, I’d be pretty happy.  I’d also shit bricks because there’s no way this class is happening, but that’s for another entry.  Just like probably everyone else who reads this, I’ve submitted a fan ballot several times on the Rock Hall’s website, and every time, four of those five names have indeed been checked off.  However, instead of N.W.A. getting the fifth, I’ve been waffling mostly between Bill Withers and War.  Sometimes Bill Withers who finished sixth in averages, and sometimes War, who despite being tied for ninth in averages, was seventh in personal taste.  Sometimes I did vote for N.W.A., too, though.  In short, it seems that if I were a member of the voting bloc, it’s clear where four of my votes would go, while the fifth would take some time to figure out.  And I gotta say that’s pretty accurate.  For me.

But I’m giving equal weight to personal preferences as to merits.  Others have a different weight scale.  Like my fiancé for example, who admittedly is only doing this because I hamper her about it.  Sorry honey.  Anyway, if she applied my logic and went with the averages of her taste and how she feels they stack up objectively, her ballot would be cast for Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, Bill Withers, Green Day, the Marvelettes, and Sting.  Sixth place, by the way, went to Joan Jett And The Blackhearts.  Yet, she’s not as attached to the artists on this ballot for personal enjoyment, Green Day being the only one she really loves, with the top five being filled out with Bill Withers, Sting, Joan Jett And The Blackhearts, and Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble (sixth place: the Marvelettes).  However, she’s admitted that when it comes to actually casting a ballot, she’d stick strictly to her merits ranking.  Her top five by her definitions of merits sees it going Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, the Smiths, the Marvelettes, N.W.A., and Bill Withers, with Sting being the sixth optional (don’t ask me, it’s her merits).

Similarly, consider the opinion of PopeCharming/AlexVoltaire, whose Northumbrian blog was kind enough to plug mine a few times, and for which, thank you.  His top six for merits were Kraftwerk, N.W.A., Green Day, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, Nine Inch Nails, and Bill Withers.  His personal preferences saw the top six ranked as Bill Withers, the Spinners, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, Sting, War, and Green Day.  When you take both ranks of all fifteen nominees, his top five are Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, Bill Withers, Kraftwerk, Green Day, and the Spinners, with a near miss by War in sixth place.  At the end of that entry, where he said for whom he’d cast his vote, he did indeed choose the first four, but instead of the Spinners for number five, he selected N.W.A., stating that if he had a sixth and seventh choice, then he’d cast for the Spinners and War (N.W.A. tied for seventh on his averages, tied with Chic).

Another perspective comes from Tom Lane, who didn’t rank them by merits or taste per se, but simply put the nominees in a pecking order by likelihood to vote for them.  However, reading his rationale behind each pecking point, it’s fairly clear that he was swayed much more by personal taste than by whom he felt deserved the honors more.    His top five were the Spinners, Chic, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, the Smiths, and War.

These are all important because as much as they might try to deny it, members of the voting bloc are also humans and likewise afflicted by the need to reconcile personal tastes with how seminal an artist really is.  And with some of them, artists especially, personal relationships with the nominees are a factor too.  It’s generally accepted by those of us on the outside that the only reason Chic has ever been nominated is because of the ties between Nile Rodgers and current NomCom members.  Cronyism seems to be a big factor.  Cronyism is also what is usually referred to when nay-sayers claim that “it’s all political,” but what about literal politics?  Political activism that resonates with the political beliefs of voters probably played a factor in the decision to vote in people like Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne so quickly, while differing politics may have been a factor in what kept an act like Alice Cooper off the ballot for so long, and continues to keep others like Ted Nugent or Pat Boone eternally out of the Hall.  Even if not on the politically opposite end of the spectrum, being a neutral can be enough to rub them the wrong way, i.e. whoever’s not with us is against us.  It could even be a factor in determining why Tom Morello from Rage Against The Machine is a NomCom member and not Alice Cooper, nee Vincent Furnier, or Lars Ulrich.  In all fairness, we laypeople aren’t entirely immune from the influence of politics either, but we are less inclined to consider it seriously as a factor when deciding who deserves enshrinement and who doesn’t, possibly because we don’t get to anyway.

But for now we still have the fan ballot, and as infinitesimal as our individual, repeatedly cast vote is to the total ballot and the entire vote overall, it’s still something that we owe it to ourselves to be conscientious of why we choose those that we do.  It’ll also give our future gripes with the Hall more credence among each other, but that’s just a fringe benefit.  With the growth of the impact of grassroots campaigns to get artists inducted, knowing ourselves first will help us more effectively reach out to them.

In closing, I’m going to include the full list of my fiancé’s lists, both merits and personal taste, since I put her through this every year, it’s not fair to her to not publish her lists.  Enjoy.

Her Merit Rank

1. Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble
2. The Smiths
3. The Marvelettes
4. N.W.A.
5. Bill Withers
6. Sting
7. Green Day
8. Chic
9. Nine Inch Nails
10. Lou Reed
11. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts
12. The Spinners
13. War
14. Kraftwerk
15. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band

Her Personal Taste Rank

1. Green Day
2. Bill Withers
3. Sting
4. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts
5. Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble
6. The Marvelettes
7. The Spinners
8. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band
9. Nine Inch Nails
10. Lou Reed
11. War
12. Chic
13. N.W.A.
14. Kraftwerk
15. The Smiths

 

To iPod or not to iPod: the 2015 nominees

In the last entry, the fifteen nominees for this year’s class were ranked by hopefully objective merits.  All attempts were made to remove personal bias from the entry, even to the point of removing as many personal pronouns as possible.  Now, however, the other side of the coin is revealed: personal tastes.  As stated in the past, considering personal tastes is not entirely unfair.  For starters, the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame states “unquestionable musical excellence” as pretty much the only criterion outside of the twenty-five year rule.  However, there has never really been any clear cut guidelines on what constitutes “unquestionable musical excellence,” yet the discussion of music between people on an everyday level sees the word “excellent” thrown about almost solely in the context of personal taste (unless someone is begrudgingly acknowledging the musical proficiency of an act he or she doesn’t personally care for).  So, it is not unreasonable to infer that when the people behind the Hall employ the phrase “unquestionable musical excellence,” that those people are likewise influenced by their personal tastes.  So including a pecking order of preference is perfectly appropriate to a discussion that forces one to choose five out of fifteen.  Additionally, as I’ve said in years past, I’m honest enough with myself to know that I wouldn’t vote solely on objective merit.  What I like is going to come into play, but it doesn’t rule all either.  There are acts I love that I wouldn’t vote for simply because I don’t feel they’re worthy (some on this ballot).  So for the sake of honesty, it’s time for me to disclose how much I personally like or dislike this year’s nominees.

1. Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble: I won’t lie: I didn’t dare to hope that they would be nominated, and I was so ecstatic when I found out that Stevie was, and even more so when they tacked on the rest of the band.  Nip that problem in the bud.  Well done.  I love their exhilarating brand of blues-rock.  Fantastic, life-affirming, raw.  To recap, I called them the most deserving candidate too.

Average of the two ranks: 1

2. The Spinners: Another act I just didn’t dare hope would be nominated.  I love Philly soul, and I’m so happy they’re back.  I really hope they make it, not just because I love them, but because the Hall needs some soul acts again, and soon.  But they only ranked ninth in merits.

Average of the two ranks: 5.5

3. The Smiths: Those who know me are probably very surprised to see the Smiths ranked this high.  To a degree it is surprising, but I can’t deny it.  Between Johnny Marr’s magical guitar playing and Morrissey’s almost hypnotic vocals, the Smiths are just wonderful music all around.  They ranked fourth in the merits.

Average of the two ranks: 3.5

4. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts: As I said two years ago, the reason they have a chance of getting in any given year is because of their fun-time rock and roll, with party jams like “I Love Rock ‘N’ Roll” and “I Hate Myself For Loving You,” that most people can and do enjoy.  Unfortunately for them, most people understand and many even agree with the rank of fourteenth in merits.

Average of the two ranks: 9

5. The Marvelettes: As I also said two years ago when the Marvelettes were last nominated, I’m not a huge fan.  But their stuff has grown on me a bit more recently, and I do enjoy the fun of early Motown.  Sixth for merit, as a reminder.

Average of the two ranks: 5.5

6. Lou Reed: Much like Morrissey of the Smiths, there’s a calming quality to the man’s voice that is unsettling in songs like “Walk On The Wild Side,” but hopeful in “Perfect Day,” and some mix of the two in songs like “Satellite Of Love.”  Recapping, he placed twelfth for merits.

Average of the two ranks: 9

7. War: Cool songs like “Low Rider,” the fun of “Why Can’t We Be Friends,” the funk of “The World Is A Ghetto,” “The Cisco Kid,” and much else of their catalog all serve to place them squarely near the middle of the candidates, but they ranked eleventh in merits.

Average of the two ranks: 9

8. Bill Withers: Makes sense for funk to be on the heels of funk, right?  Alright then.  He’s best known for his smoother songs like “Lean On Me” and “Ain’t No Sunshine,” and actually if those were more typical of his style, he’d rank higher.  “Grandma’s Hands,” “Use Me,” “Make Love To Your Mind,” “Heartbreak Road,” etc. are also fine songs, I just like the atypical stuff better.  Very close to his merit rank, which was seventh.

Average of the two ranks: 7.5

9. Green Day: Not a huge fan of modern alternative, but they are rather fun.  “Minority” is probably my favorite song, though I also enjoy “Warning” and “Basket Case,” and yes, as a teen of the mid-to-late ‘90’s, my high school’s class song that year was indeed “Good Riddance (Time Of Your Life).”  Like Bill Withers just above, they fall one lower in taste than their merit rank, this time eighth.

Average of the two ranks: 8.5

10. Chic: ”Good Times” and “I Want Your Love” were the only two songs I actually kind of liked the first times I heard them.  “Le Freak” had to grow on me, though it hasn’t fully.  I still don’t like “Dance, Dance, Dance (Yowzah, Yowzah, Yowzah).”  Unlike the two artists above, they landed exactly the same spot as they did on merits.

Average of the two ranks: 10

11. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band: As much as I love Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, you’d think I’d love the Paul Butterfield Blues Band almost as much, but strangely not so, though I like “East-West” and their version of “Walkin’ Blues” (though I like Hot Tuna’s better).  Dwindling dangerously near the bottom this year both times, they were thirteenth in merit.

Average of the two ranks: 12

12. N.W.A.: They have a few songs I love, a few I think are okay, and several that are kind of monotonous in their profanity and themes.  And with the limited catalog they have, not much room for that.  Fortunately, they’re second in merits.

Average of the two ranks: 7

13. Nine Inch Nails: I have some bad memories of my college radio days, and Nine Inch Nails kind of reminds me of them.  Still, attempting to distance myself from the memories, it wasn’t too bad.  Unsurprisingly, I like the later, more commercial stuff better.  Also unsurprisingly, not an act one should research when encumbered with a splitting headache.  They ranked fifth in merits.

Average of the two ranks: 9

14. Kraftwerk: Three of the top five deserving acts rank in the bottom five for taste.  I should either be applauded for being able to at least recognize the worth of acts I don’t care for, or chastised that I can’t align the two universes better.  Still, I like much of the music that followed in their wake.  And I do like a few songs, such as “Neonlichten,” an English-language cover of which is done by U2, as well as the later remix of “Autobahn.”  Third in merits.

Average of the two ranks: 8.5

15. Sting: I fell asleep the first time I tried to immerse myself in his solo efforts more.  His music bores me.  I’m not a big fan of the Police either, which alienates me from my eldest brother.  I did worry that my personal taste was influencing the merits rank too much, but the circulating opinions on Future Rock Legends makes me feel comfortable that ranking him dead last that time as well was indeed the right call.

Average of the two ranks: 15

So there’s an honest confession about which artists would make my iPod and which ones wouldn’t.  Coming soon, a look at how these ranks would influence my vote (and how others feel about the nominees as well).