The Monsters Inside

 Merry Christmas, first of all.

By now, we've all watched the induction special, and have had our say about that. I have nothing further to add about what we watched, but two of the inductions certainly raised eyebrows regarding the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame's credibility. Those two are of course those of Jon Landau and Irving Azoff, the Non-Performer inductees. On a fairly recent episode of "Who Cares About The Rock Hall," Kristen Studard called it, "The ladder inducting itself," an analogy I'd never heard before, and though I get what it means, I'm curious about the etymology of it. Why a ladder? Not important, I suppose. But even at its initial announcement, it was chided with other metaphors, such as "insider baseball." One might even call it, "The tower inducting the ivory."

To some degree, it makes sense. Who are generally the most knowledgeable AND financially capable of establishing the institution in the first place? The industry insiders who helped elevate the music as part of the cultural zeitgeist, right? So, wouldn't it make sense to include some of them for what they did as part of the movement? By that logic, yeah.

Problem is, as we all know, it came with a metric tonne of strings attached: genres of music ignored for the longest time, specific artists blacklisted, others plain blackballed for crossing those in power in past business dealings, criminal atrocities by those in power whitewashed or just plain omitted in the telling of the story, favors becoming currency, political moves, etc. The inductions of Azoff and especially Landau demonstrate a digging in of the heels by the Foundation, with regards to its clique mentality.

I've previously expressed skepticism at inducting managers, period, but what is even more infuriating is that there are people who deserve induction in this category way more than these two, who haven't been inducted because they are not and were not part of the power players at the Foundation: Estelle Axton, Wolfman Jack, Bob Crewe, Hilly Kristal, Sylvia Robinson, Don Cornelius, just to name a few. Maybe Azoff and Landau deserve induction, but the Hall could've avoided some flak had they also inducted some people who aren't cozy with the Foundation. The Hall has gotten a little more populist with the Performer category, and they call it progress. But looking at who and when they induct Non-Performers is also incredibly telling, often prominently and proudly displaying a sense of elitism.

When stories are told of the early induction ceremonies, in terms of both how it was done and how it was recorded for posterity, it tends to get described as being for "the people in the room." And that's primarily what it still is. There is still an attitude simmering that, despite having a museum for the public to visit (pandemic notwithstanding), looks at our making this institution a hobby and retorts, "Why do you care so much about it? This belongs to us!" They built an ivory tower of sorts and told us all to behold; they wanted our praise and admiration, not our input. And perhaps nowhere is this more prominent than in the gender disparity in the Hall. In the past couple years, this has been brought to the forefront by Evelyn McDonnell, the Who Cares About The Rock Hall podcast, the Hall Watchers podcast, Future Rock Legends, and various members of the Hall watching community. It seems to have only gotten worse, though. John Sykes is promising change for the better, and we all need to be watching for it.

And watching ourselves, as I've recently been reminded. After a grave bout with foot-in-mouth disease, I lie here riddled with my own guilt and shame. I thought I was helping to smash the patriarchy, but instead, I shattered a friendship with my biases, inability to listen, and general narcissism. I demonstrated indifference in a moment of devil's advocacy where none was needed or wanted, inadvertently defended a sexual assailant, unwittingly maintained a double standard, and dismissed other people's musical journeys and insights outright--in short, many things we're trying to hold the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame accountable for. I don't say this to avoid reckoning, at least not entirely. When the hammer falls, I deserve to be under it, too ashamed to even utter words of apology, and not expecting to be believed anyway, though I am truly sorry to the point of depression. Since dining on shoe leather, I've done a lot of self-loathing and finally some soul-searching. I have problems, and I've at least been able to identify some personal moments that may have caused some of them. My conscious mind knows, believes, and cares; and dammit, I'll drag the ego with me, kicking and screaming if necessary. Call it hypocrisy, cognitive dissonance, being full of shit, or whatever; but the same stubbornness that makes me a fence post to talk to sometimes is the same thing that won't let me give up on trying to improve myself. Thankfully, I've got visible examples, from this year alone, in my personal life outside this hobby to look to for encouragement. I've used my voice for good before, and I will again. If I can first learn to listen more.

Hopefully, the Rock Hall will too.

Day Is Done

As I type this, we are still in a state of quarantine, as the pandemic of COVID19 continues to be the dominant force on this planet.  The number of lives already lost to this disease is mind-boggling, and among the lives lost was a man nominated for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame's Class Of 2019, but was not inducted.  I am of course referring to John Prine. 

While Prine didn't make it in that year, and is still not in, his nomination certainly did raise an awareness for his music that wasn't previously there.  When the nominees were announced in mid-to-late 2018 for the Class Of 2019, I remember one member of the Hall-watching community said something along the lines of, "I remember the first time I heard a John Prine song.  It was five minutes after he was announced as a nominee."  And I have to admit, I was pretty much in the same boat.  But I was willing to listen, to delve into his catalog, and see if I could understand his nomination.  And even though I ranked him way down on the Merits' ranking list, I understood the nomination.  His songwriting genius is undeniable.  His melodies are pleasant and unpretentious, the wit of his lyrics is sharp yet gentle when he wanted, or in your face if he wanted it that way, and the overall experience is refreshing and edifying.

It's just amazing how many of his songs I've found myself humming and thinking of in response to what was going on around me.  The political sphere of this country frequently has me thinking of "Your Flag Decal Won't Get You Into Heaven Anymore."  The day-to-day ridiculous in the immediate world around us will sometimes remind me "Egg & Daughter Nite, Lincoln, Nebraska 1967 (Crazy Bone)."  As someone with extremely low self-esteem, I find "Day Is Done" to have a sweet sadness that lets me know it's okay to feel down for a little bit, but not too long.  His duets are wonderful and at times profound.

John Prine died before he could be voted in to become inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, but his nomination helped his music gain wider exposure.  This is something that the Hall does right.  I remember once reading an article about how being announced as a nominee helped increase an artist's sales for a short burst of time.  Same with being announced as an inductee.  And the actual ceremony.  The Hall increases exposure for the artists it nominates, which is necessary when the sole criterion is the passage of at least twenty-five years since an artist's debut release.  For those of us who follow the Hall as a hobby, "left field" picks like Prine will often give us a chance to check out artists we may not have known, or think we knew, or knew of, but didn't really know.  In the case of John Prine, I found an artist I really liked.  I also learned that I'm really not into grunge, not even a legendary act like Soundgarden.  I've gotten to know the music of T. Rex much more deeply, to delve deeper into R&B acts like Little Willie John, and even to buy music again, artists ranging from Ruth Brown and LaVern Baker to N.W.A. and 2Pac. 

It's easy to criticize the Hall, and we all do it from time to time.  But with the passing of John Prine, rather than be upset that he didn't get inducted while alive, I'm choosing to remember that the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame is how I first learned of the music of John Prine.  The Hall's mission is to enshrine and perpetuate incredible music that is part of the rock and roll diaspora, and when they introduce a great artist to people's ears for the first time, they are doing their job correctly.  This is why we care about the Hall, because they do things like this that are fantastic, and it's why we try to hold them accountable as much as we can, because when they get off track, it can be pretty egregious.  We care about the music itself, we ultimately believe in the Hall, and thus it galls us to find out about their surreptitious shenanigans.  But for tonight, it's about what they've done right.  In this case, introducing John Prine's brilliance to a new audience.

Thank you, Rock Hall.  Rest In Peace John Prine.

Delayed reactions. The Class Of 2020

I'd held off on commenting about the Class Of 2020 for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame for some time because, well, everyone else was saying what I was thinking.  It didn't really seem necessary.  Nevertheless, as a blogger of this hobby, it's expected that I say a few words about this class, what's missing, etc.

So first off, I did terrible in my predictions.  Everyone said this was a tough ballot to predict from, but I don't think anyone did worse than me.  I do take a little consolation in the fact that my 7 and 8 seeds, two acts that were tough calls to eliminate, got in.  I nearly got four.  I don't feel bad about missing on Depeche Mode.  If Kraftwerk can't get in, why should I believe Depeche Mode would?  Okay, they had more hits in America, that's why.  And Nine Inch Nails... I mean, there wasn't going to be more than one "rock" band from the '90's, and the Dave Matthews Band were leading the fan poll.  Ah well, the world is still turning, and these are all deserving Performers being inducted.  All the same, I think this was my worst year of predicting, ever.

I'm actually thrilled that Whitney's getting in.  It continues the trend of first place finishers in my personal taste list getting in.  You have to go back to 2014 and the Spinners for the last time an act that topped my personal preferences list but didn't get in.  And she finished second in merits, so it's pretty awesome overall.  T. Rex making it isn't a bad thing either.  They're a little saccharine for me to binge-listen to all that often, but they're fun, a good choice when you need a little cheering up.  More importantly, it's important to induct more acts that were massively popular on a more global perspective, even if not in America.    Biggie and the Doobies?  Called them.  Yay, I got two.

The fact I only got two though also shows some big changes.  As has been noted, this was the first year in quite a long time that rock and roll, vis-a-vis the Hall's inductions, is not being primarily defined as guitar music.  We still have that perspective with T. Rex and the Doobie Brothers as inductees, but the rest?  Hip-hop, industrial, pop/soul, and synth dance music.  It's truly something to behold.  Is this something that's going to continue?  A lot of that will depend on who the Nominating Committee puts on the ballot of course.  For now, though, it's a phenomenon to take notice of.

However, perhaps one of the reasons that this class shaped up the way it did is divisions in the ballot.  Did Motorhead, Judas Priest, and Thin Lizzy divide the ballot against each other?  How did Soundgarden and the MC5 factor in?  Did Kraftwerk get drowned out by Depeche Mode alone, or was it a one-two combo with Nine Inch Nails?  Whitney Houston was clearly strong enough to stop Rufus with Chaka Khan.  Is Trent Reznor enough of a production wizard to have detracted votes away from Todd Rundgren?

Of course, the biggest question seems to be, how the hell did Pat Benatar miss?  Collectively, the hobbyist community figured her as big a shoo-in as the Doobie Brothers, maybe even bigger.  Her missing out is as perplexing as Todd Rundgren's last year, Radiohead's the year before, as well as other inexplicable anomalies like Queen and AC/DC missing out their first times on the ballot.  I really hope she's back next year.  It's impossible to tell at this point, but it'll be great if she is.

Which brings us to the case of the Dave Matthews Band.  For the record, I never had an issue with their nomination.  Back in 2006, shortly before I made my observations on the 2007 ballot on a robotic combat forum, I started a thread about upcoming acts that the Hall was going to have to deal with at some point, and the Dave Matthews Band were on that list, for exactly the reasons I said, elevating the live tour back to an artform, while still being immensely popular.  I never had a problem with the band's nomination.  It was the arrogance of the fan base on Twitter that was irritating, treating their loyalty and online presence as a clinching factor, especially after they pushed the band over one million votes in the fan poll, demanding that they be glorified for their efforts as well as the Dave Matthews Band themselves.  That was annoying, but as annoyed as I was with the fans, it did not bring me any joy when the Dave Matthews Band did not get named as an inductee for 2020.  In the days before the announcement, I was coming up with some jokes to post on Twitter about DMB not getting the nod, should they miss out.  They weren't meant to be hurtful, just some good-natured ribbing meant in the style and manner of the Comedy Central Roasts.  However, when I saw the dismay and outrage of the fans on Twitter following the disappointing announcements, I just didn't have the heart to make those jokes.  I knew they wouldn't be taken in the manner I would have intended them.  Best to just let them have their outrage, lick their wounds, and let them be upset for a time.

Well, Dave Matthews Band fans, welcome to the world of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  One of the long-time criticisms of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame is that it's a private boys' club.  They don't have a whole lot of concern over what the general public cares about or thinks is important.  And it isn't just demonstrated with the Dave Matthews Band, though this is the first time that the first-place finisher in the fan vote has not ended up inducted as part of that class.  Only one of the five acts on the official fan ballot ended up getting inducted.  In all fairness, the Hall always made it clear that the fan poll would constitute one and only one official ballot (until the latest comments saying the fan vote counts as two), that the millions of fan votes on the fan ballot were only as meaningful as the combined votes from the surviving Ronettes.  It's one of the few times the Hall has ever been transparent.  There's a high amount of disconnect from the general public with this class, after a string of years that showed relative synchronization of thoughts, but it's just a further reminder that it's still their house, and they'll do as they please.  They never actually promised anything but as HallWatchers said on Twitter: "Whether we agree if the band belongs is besides the point. If they're going to lather people up about the kiosk/fan vote, only to yank their chains about bands they love and mean something to them, it's going to cause confusion and anger no matter how you slice it."  And later, HallWatchers also said, "And the thing is, I don't hate it as an idea. Have them in the museum as a fun, interactive thing to do. But when you start promoting it every time someone complains about a band not getting in, you're implying that kiosk is a solution to their complaint."  So maybe the Hall implied things they didn't mean to.  Those of us who follow the Hall knew this wasn't going to be meaningful, but the average person doesn't know that.  So yeah, it's disenchanting for them.  Still, I think their anger will be transient enough because in a year's time they'll no longer remember or care, unless DMB gets nominated again next year.  And even then, the anger will be subside if they make it next time.  I don't think the anger will last.  Will there be any further fallout?  It's hard to say; the Hall has so much shadiness surrounding them, you can pretty much take your pick on what will be remembered as their most grievous offense, and it won't be any one thing, but everything, and yet still the one thing.  Does that make sense?  I don't know, but it makes sense in my head.

But speaking of shady things surrounding the Hall, let's also get into the Ahmet Ertegun Award recipients for Non-Performers.  This year, we're honoring Irving Azoff and Jon Landau, two men with very high positions in the Foundation itself.  Landau chairs the Nominating Committee, while Azoff is on the board for the entire Foundation.  Once you know that, it already makes their inductions feel icky and self-congratulatory.  It gets worse when you recall that the last Non-Performer inductee was Bert Berns, in 2016, which happened right about the time that Little Steven was producing a play about Bert Berns.  The whole thing is too openly cronyistic to even be called "shady" anymore; it's right out there in broad daylight.

The cronyism of it all just derails the whole conversation to the point where we don't even ask "Do they deserve it?"  And I have to profess, it's not the best the Hall could've done.  I'm not opposed to inducting managers outright, mind you.  But this category is supposed to honor those who in their own non-performing ways helped perpetuate and evolve rock and roll music.  The Hall has only inducted two other managers: Andrew Loog Oldham and Brian Epstein, both in 2014.  These are two managers that played a very hands-on role in grooming their landmark acts, the Rolling Stones and the Beatles.  Epstein managed the Beatles and made them clean up their act, meaning their stage antics and their look.  He groomed them into a band that was palatable enough to appear on the Ed Sullivan Show, and in a sense, made Beatlemania happen.  Oldham intentionally marketed the Rolling Stones as a rougher band, an alternative to the Beatles.  He helped solidify their "bad boy" image, which in turn helped their stylistic direction.  Compare those two men to Azoff and Landau.  Azoff's most famous acts are Eagles and Steely Dan.  Now, Azoff's empire has gone on to manage and represent a multitude of acts, many big ones, such as Fleetwood Mac, the Doobie Brothers, Bon Jovi, just to name a few.  But did his management really do anything to shape or form the sound of any one particular artist?  I suppose it's a situation where you have to acknowledge that art never truly happens in a vacuum and that the music business is still a business.  Perhaps by handling all the tedious legalese and fine print, Irving Azoff frees up artists to be more creative without the stress of red tape weighing heavily on them, but it's really more of an indirect contribution to the creative process.  He doesn't so much inspire artists as he does clear obstacles that would stifle inspiration and creativity.  Should that be enough?  Well, with enough major artists under his wing and a large enough empire, maybe the testimony is deafeningly whispered and hiding in plain sight.

With Jon Landau, though, I'm having a harder time.  Irving Azoff has at least the quantity of artists whose careers he's bolstered, some quite significantly.  Landau really only has one: Bruce Springsteen.  If you're going to be Hall-worthy for managing one artist, that artist had better be in the rafters of the absolute top tier.  I'm talking Aretha Franklin, James Brown, Elvis Presley, the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, and maybe a handful of others.  I love Bruce Springsteen's music, but if we're being honest, he isn't on the same plateau as those names in terms of importance to the story and history of rock and roll music.  He falls just a wee bit shy of that mark.  And even if Springsteen is that important, Landau didn't shape, mold, and groom the man we now know as "the Boss" the way that Epstein did the Beatles or Oldham, the Stones.  Even with Azoff, a management empire that big, the probabilities support the likelihood that there are at least a couple artists that Azoff personally had a hand in shaping their image, and thereby their musical direction.  With Landau, though, he's the diver who found a great pearl and gave up everything he had to have that pearl.  He claimed he saw the future of music, and it was named Bruce Springsteen.  Bruce pretty much already had his style and image in place by the time Landau came on board.  And yes, Landau produced several albums by the Boss and his band, but again, unless that artist is on the same level as Chuck Berry, you need more than one artist on your resume.  Yes, he produced an MC5 album, but the MC5 are having serious trouble getting their own due recognition.  He's also done some stuff for Shania Twain, but the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame currently has a tepid relationship with the world of country music.  Relatively modern mainstream country, the kind of country my friends refer to as "Nashville pop," is not esteemed by this institution we all find so riveting.  But wait, wasn't he also a critic at Rolling Stone?  Yes, but here's the thing: I don't think music critics should be inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, not when it's their primary or sole contribution to the industry.  Paul Ackerman is an exception, because he broke ground by breaking through the pretentious and possibly racist blithe dismissal of an entirely new style of music.  But those journalists are few and far between.  Music critics in general, don't add much to the perpetuation and evolution of rock and roll, and if they do, it's in an opposition kind of way--that is, if a particular critic hates it, you know that you'll love it.  In the long run, music critics have been wrong so many times so often about musical works that history has smiled favorably upon (or raved about works that have been all but forgotten), they make weather forecasters feel like veteran bookies in Las Vegas.  I may be in the minority here, but I have yet to be convinced that music critics are worthy of the Ahmet Ertegun Award for their work as critics.  So, any and all merits that bolster the argument for Jon Landau as an inductee hinge entirely on his work with Bruce Springsteen And The E Street Band, and I don't think it's enough.  That's just me personally, and it won't change a thing.  Landau will be inducted, and he will get a Song Of Proof to represent him in The Great Playlist.  However, there are far too many candidates who are much worthier of enshrinement in this category, so many that there is no excuse for pulling these kinds of shenanigans.

So, that's the wrap-up on my long overdue thoughts about this class.  Late to the party, probably too late to even get a party favor or even half a glass of punch, but my thoughts nevertheless.  Still not ready to start thinking about 2021, though, at least not seriously.  Like everyone else, I'm looking forward to what this ceremony will be like when it's live on HBO, and I'll be sure to weigh in on that too, hopefully not as late though.

Predicting the inductees for 2020

After much procrastination, and a boatload of work hours, I'm starting to type up this post on Christmas Eve.  Time to finally put together a final prediction for the 2020 Class for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  It's been a tough one.  Hard to nail down the final predictions, as everyone has said, so here's my stab at predicting the Class.  No telling how many times I'll change my mind before I publish.  Enjoy.  P.S. Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukkah, and Happy New Year.



1. PAT BENATAR
Rock and roll solo performer, though nominated with her husband and lead guitarist, Neil Giraldo.  First-time nominee.
Why she might make it:  She appeals to those who want more women in the Hall, as well as those with a myopic definition of rock and roll that follows the traditions of acts like the Beatles and Led Zeppelin.
Why she might not:  Those with the aforementioned myopic definition sometimes want to limit it to full band units, i.e. those with at least a drummer and bassist, too.  Solo performers need not apply, in their opinion.
Whom she'd pave the way for:  All-female bands such as the Go-Go's and the Bangles could follow her lead.  It's also a bit of a stretch, but it could also lead to Suzi Quatro.
Biggest threats:  Honestly, I don't see her so much in the "female lane."  To me, it's more that this is a hard- and classic rock lovers' ballot; so Motorhead, Judas Priest, T. Rex, Thin Lizzy, the Doobie Brothers, and even Todd Rundgren could block her.
In the end:  I think she's the best bet from keeping this class from being a total sausage fest.  Odds of induction: 80%

2. THIN LIZZY
Hard-rock band from Ireland.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  For some reason, having dual lead guitars is seen as the most important innovation in rock and roll since Lennon-McCartney filled an entire album with their own compositions, and Thin Lizzy is the band people point to for that.  Since the announcement of the nominees, most every guest on "Who Cares About The Rock Hall?" has said this is a band they'd vote for, including an actual member of the voting bloc.  They've got potential.
Why they might not:  They had a limited impact here in the United States, and the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame still remains a "rather American" institution.  Perception shaping reality, they may not be viewed by enough voters as important enough.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Thin Lizzy could open the door wider for acts from the British Isles that didn't quite cross the pond so successfully, such as Humble Pie and Mott The Hoople.
Biggest threats:  Judas Priest and T. Rex are the most direct competition, but even the hard rock of Soundgarden could be a threat, as well as Pat Benatar.
In the end:  After the announcement of the nominees, I said that if the trend of the lowest common denominator act winning the fan ballot continued, Thin Lizzy would be a lock.  And while they aren't winning the fan ballot, they appear to be catnip to the people whom the Hall would like to give a ballot.  Odds of induction: 75%

3. THE NOTORIOUS B.I.G.
East coast rapper.  Newly eligible.
Why he might make it:  Even from the grave, he's a highly influential rapper, regarded by some as the greatest rapper ever.
Why he might not:  With a fairly limited catalog, his nomination has also drawn criticism of chronology from within the rap community
Whom he'd pave the way for:  Jay-Z is on deck, Puff Daddy has got to be on the way as well.
Biggest threats:  There are no other rap acts, but Rufus featuring Chaka Khan and Whitney Houston could steal R&B votes, not to mention Soundgarden, Nine Inch Nails, and the Dave Matthews Band are competition for the votes for '90's acts.
In the end:  Eric from "Hall Watchers" talked about 'induction by fiat," particularly in the case of the Paul Butterfield Blues Band.  But if "induction by fiat" was that certain of a possibility, why was Chic never inducted this way?  Still, the legacies of 2Pac and the Notorious B.I.G. are forever intertwined, and if 2Pac got in right away, I have to believe Mr. Wallace will follow suit.  Odds of induction: 70%

4. THE DOOBIE BROTHERS
Rock and roll group often considered "blue-eyed soul."  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  They are responsible for a long train running of well-known rock and roll songs during the '70's.  They had two successful eras of different lead singers.  From a "playing the game" perspective, the hiring of Irving Azoff is considered a smart move toward getting in the Hall.  Lastly, the forthcoming tour seems to be designed to kick off in Cleveland at the induction ceremony.
Why tbey might not:  A tour that kicks off with a Hall Of Fame induction in 2020, could just as well conclude with a Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame induction in 2021.  Plus, the moniker of "yacht rock" isn't necessarily meant as a pejorative, but it does almost gaslight their legacy as being a band that one only likes "ironically."  The Hall doesn't appear to appreciate irony.  Acts that should have been bigger than they were, yes; irony, not so much.  Plus, on a ballot full of hard rock favorites, the Doobies may not be regarded as high a priority.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  If the Doobie Brothers are the current classic rock staple that the Hall has their collective mind on, it'll have to be them before we get to Foreigner, Styx, or Jimmy Buffett.  On the other hand, having the members of this band as future voters could help renew the push for the J. Geils Band.
Biggest threats:  Pat Benatar is about the biggest hitmaker of the classic rock format after the Doobie Brothers and could split the vote with them.  Let's also not ignore the metal of Motorhead or Judas Priest, or the likes of Thin Lizzy or even Todd Rundgren.
In the end:  The Hall still favors "dad rock" pretty heavily, and with the possible exception of Judas Priest, no act on the ballot stands for dad rock better than this outfit.  Odds of induction: 60%

5. JUDAS PRIEST
Heavy metal band.  Second-time nominee.  Seeded #5 for 2018.
Why they might make it:  They're one of the most important heavy metal acts of all time, let alone those not yet in the Hall.  Innovative, influential in both sound and image, they've got the resume for induction.
Why they might not:  The Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame has been less than on the ball when it comes to inducting heavy metal acts.  Additionally, on a cursory, Americentric level, this band is usually considered a one-trick pony.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  With Motorhead also on the ballot, other possibilities to follow include UFO and Uriah Heep.
Biggest threats:  Motorhead and Thin Lizzy are the most direct competition, but Pat Benatar, Soundgarden, Nine Inch Nails, and T. Rex could split the vote.
In the end:  Since the charter class, the Hall has had only one class where all Performer inductees were first-time nominees, and even then, the Early Influence inductee was a repeat nominee for the Performer category... even on that year's ballot.  History indicates that there will be at least one repeat nominee inducted.  Of the repeat nominees, this is the one I think that has the best chance.. at least in the Performer category.  Odds of induction: 55%

6. THE DAVE MATTHEWS BAND
Jam band most popular during the '90's.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  They are currently leading the fan vote, and the history has always favored the top-finisher of the fan vote.  Additionally, they were, and still are, a massively popular act in terms of album sales.
Why they might not:  Leading the fan poll is really the only major thing going for them as far as "the game" goes.  They don't seem to be garnering a lot of appreciation from the voting bloc, that we can tell.  And while the first-place finishers in the fan vote have all gotten in to date, this is the first time where the first-place winner in the fan vote WON'T be an artist with some regularity in "classic rock" programming.  The Dave Matthews Band are too modern for classic rock stations, and that may be the distinguishing factor that has always coincided with past first-place finishers.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Members of the Foundation have already called the Dave Matthews Band the litmus test for Phish in the future.  They'll probably also be the gate for other '90's rock acts ranging from Beck to No Doubt.
Biggest threats:  Soundgarden and Nine Inch Nails seem to be likely competition, as well as the Notorious B.I.G. when it comes to '90's acts.
In the end:  Litmus test indeed.  Literally only predicting them to make it if they go with six.  If they weren't leading the fan vote, they be seeded #12 or so.  Right now, going with the correlative trend for its own sake.  Odds of induction: 50%

7. T. REX
Glam rock band from the United Kingdom.  First-time nominee
Why they might make it:  They're recognized as pioneers of glam rock and also very influential to British punk and post-punk bands.  They're expected to be a huge draw for British members of the voting bloc.
Why they might not:  The Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame still has a largely American bias, and even though that started to turn around last year, there's no guarantee for how long that kind of run will last.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Glam rock doesn't have a whole lot of promising acts that could follow suit.  Maybe the Sweet could follow through.  Or maybe some British post-punk act like the Smiths could get another look once this band is in.
Biggest threats:  British rockers Judas Priest and Motorhead, not to mention Irish rock band Thin Lizzy, are pretty immediate threats.  There's also some threat from classic rockers like the Doobie Brothers, Pat Benatar, and Todd Rundgren.  And if it's influential to punk you want, don't ignore the MC5, either.
In the end:  They were originally going to make the final cut.  With my mind constantly changing and things getting moved around, it's a solid enough reason to make them the upset special.  Odds of induction: 49%

8. WHITNEY HOUSTON
R&B diva.  First-time nominee
Why she might make it:  She's a commercial juggernaut, one of the biggest-selling acts of the entire twentieth century, let alone not in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame yet.  She's got the respect of members of the hard-rock community too, depiste being a R&B and adult contemporary diva.
Why she might not:  In addition to being deceased, dance music doesn't usually get into the Hall Of Fame very easily, nor does adult contemporary ballads, both of which were in Whitney's wheelhouse.
Whom she'd pave the way for: Um ... Bobby Brown?   Ow!  Ow!  Stop hitting me!  Ow!  I was kidding!  I meant Mariah Carey!  Or Gloria Estefan And The Miami Sound Machine!  Ow!
Biggest threats:  Rufus featuring Chaka Khan are the immediate competition.  Kraftwerk and Depeche Mode also have claims on the dance music, while the Notorious B.I.G. has serious R&B credibility to steal votes away from Whitney.
In the end:  I really want to believe that Whitney Houston will get in this year; I also really want to believe that eating a five-cheese pizza every weekend is good for your heart.  This ballot's just too crowded for me to think she'll squeeze in over most of those seeded above her.  But it could happen.  Odds of induction: 45%

9. SOUNDGARDEN
Grunge band, rose to prominence in the '90's.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  They've already given Chris Cornell a tribute at an induction ceremony.  This is someone the Hall clearly loves, and they don't want to wait on getting this band inducted.
Why they might not:  While grunge has a pretty steady track record so far, the Hall hasn't really tried going outside the obvious names.  Soundgarden isn't obscure, but they're not the first name one thinks of when grunge is mentioned.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Alice In Chains is the next name in grunge if Soundgarden gets in this year.  Other '90's rock acts that have been nominated could be nominated again, such as Jane's Addiction.
Biggest threats:  Nine Inch Nails and the Dave Matthews Band are the most direct threats, while metal acts Judas Priest and Motorhead also could draw votes away.
In the end:  The classic rock contingency just has too strong a grip on the voting bloc to think that the younger acts are going to dominate the class.  Odds of induction: 40%

10. NINE INCH NAILS
Industrial rock act that is essentially one man, Trent Reznor.  Third-time nominee.  Seeded #9 for 2015 and #10 for 2016.
Why he/they might make it:  Nine Inch Nails is the act that really helped make industrial mainstream, bringing it to a wider audience.  This act even made Rolling Stone's list of immortals, which could very strongly signal eventual induction.  Additionally, with 2020's induction ceremony being in Cleveland, they'd love to have a relatively close "hometown hero" to have as an inductee.
Why he/they might not:  Industrial is still a pretty niche genre, and may not have a wide enough circulation to resonate with enough of the voting bloc.
Whom he'd/they'd pave the way for:  Despite being influential, Nine Inch Nails doesn't really open any obvious tributaries.  Maybe Ministry?
Biggest threats:  Soundgarden and the Dave Matthews Band are the other '90's "rock" acts that stand most directly in the way.  Hard rock like Judas Priest, Motorhead, and Thin Lizzy could also divert some votes away.
In the end:  There are really strong arguments for all three '90's "rock" acts to make it in this year, but in order for that to happen, at least two of the following three things have to happen: one, Biggie doesn't get in; two, no women are inducted; three, the classic rock contingency gets "Okay, Boomer"ed--hard.  Maybe one of those three can happen, but not two, and certainly not all three, and I think Nine Inch Nails will fall the shortest of those three acts.  Odds of induction: 37.5%

11. MOTORHEAD
British heavy metal group.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  Frontman Lemmy Kilmister is among the upper echelons of well-known, charismatic rock frontmen who embody the rock and roll lifestyle.
Why they might not:  The mythos of Motorhead travels further than the actual musical legacy.  For their respectable run of charted albums, people really don't know too many of their songs, especially outside of "Ace Of Spades."
Whom they'd pave the way for:  The big heavy metal acts of the '80's that aren't in yet, such as Pantera, Anthrax, and Megadeth could get some attention.
Biggest threats: Judas Priest, Thin Lizzy, Soundgarden, T. Rex, and Pat Benatar could all be viable alternatives to voting for Motorhead.
In the end:  It's just too crowded a ballot for them this time around.  But it's good to see them get nominated.  It's a step in the right direction.  Better luck next time.  Odds of induction: 35%

12. DEPECHE MODE
Synth-rock outfit from England.  Third time nominated.  Seeded #11 for 2017 and #12 for 2018.
Why they might make it:  They're recognized as one of the biggest outfits in their particular sub-genre of the rock and roll diaspora, proving both innovative and influential.
Why they might not:  They represent a piece of the rock and roll diaspora that just doesn't get a lot of respect, particularly from the Hall itself.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Even though their biggest successes came in the late '80's and '90's, they'd probably open the door backwards for synth-pop groups of the '80's like Simple Minds, Tears For Fears, and the Thompson Twins.
Biggest threats:  Kraftwerk, Rufus featuring Chaka Khan, and Whitney Houston are all part of the dance music scene and could stand in the way.
In the end:  They deserve to be in, but the classic rock fatigue is nowhere close to setting in.  Not this year.  Odds of induction: 33.3%

13. TODD RUNDGREN
Musical utility-player and producer extraordinaire.  Second-time nominee, seeded #3 last year.
Why he might make it:  Todd is well connected in the industry, with strong ties that reach pretty far.  He sings, plays instruments, writes, produces, and even innovates listening opportunities.
Why he might not:  Voters might try to divest Todd's production and writing credits from his records where he's the primary, or even sole artist.  That mental compartmentalization may keep him from being seen as worthy.
Whom he'd pave the way for:  He doesn't open up too many tributaries, but maybe others that are well-loved within the industry have a shot, like Big Star, or a second nomination for John Prine down the line.
Biggest threats:  The entire classic rock pantheon on this ballot, including Pat Benatar, the Doobie Brothers, T. Rex, Thin Lizzy, and even Judas Priest, and Motorhead.
In the end:  He was in the top five of the fan vote last year, but is not this year, simply beause there's more classic rock to choose from.  That'll carry over to the voting bloc, too, most likely.  Odds of induction: 30%

14. KRAFTWERK
Pioneering electronica act.  This is their sixth nomination: their first nomination for the Class of 2003 predates my seeding system, seeded #9 in 2013, #13 in 2015, #10 in both 2017 and 2019.
Why they might make it:  Anyone with even a hair more music knowledge than John Q. Public says this act belongs in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.
Why they might not:  With limited success and name recognition in the United States, it really will depend on the voting body becoming more and more British before continental European acts can become a bigger presence in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  Additionally, some of the powers-that-be have hinted that an act like Kraftwerk might soon be inducted as an "Early Influence" inductee, promoting a possible "sliding scale" of historical impact and importance.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  If Kraftwerk can get in, that could clear the lane for a second nomination of Devo.  It could also help dance music acts like Daft Punk or Moby get a look.  Also, European acts like Can, Cliff Richard And The Shadows, and Johnny Hallyday might finally break onto the ballot.
Biggest threats:  Depeche Mode is probably the most direct competition, but don't neglect Whitney Houston or Rufus featuring Chaka Khan.  They could steal votes from the Germans as well.
In the end:  When the powers-that-be tip their hand like that, it almost spells certain doom for proper induction in the Performer category.  I won't weigh in on their odds of being inducted as an Early Influence, mainly because I find the idea itself to be reprehensible with a pungent stench.  I'll just say that this time won't see them as a Performer inductee.  Odds of induction: 25%

15. THE MC5
Hard-rockin' proto-punk band from Michigan.  Fifth nomination.  Their first nomination for 2003 predates my seeding system, seeded #12 in 2017, and #14 for both 2018 and 2019.
Why they might make it:  They're an extremely innovative and influential band, helping to give rise to punk rock as a sub-genre of rock and roll.  With the induction ceremony in Cleveland this year, it'd be great to have the nearby neighbor of Detroit included in the festivities.
Why they might not:  They just don't have the name recognition.  They're not well-known enough to stand out above some of the other names.  Also, if Kraftwerk is being seen as a viable Early Influence inductee, how much more so the MC5, who are the earliest act on this ballot.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  They could help get the New York Dolls nominated a second time.  Getting the MC5 in could also clear up the logjam hindering Rage Against The Machine getting in as well.
Biggest threats:  T. Rex, Judas Priest, Motorhead, Thin Lizzy, Pat Benatar, and even Soundgarden could be seen as alternatives.
In the end:  The whole science of taxonomy, and much of science itself, is predicated on the idea that one key way we demonstrate an understanding of a subject matter is by naming and categorizing it.  And while this is more about art than science, much of that principle carries over.  Inducting Todd Rundgren as a Non-Performer would be forgivable, as he certainly has the credibility there, while an Award For Musical Excellence induction would be a little less forgivable, but still understandable.  However, the Hall violating their own established parameters and just being willy-nilly about the way they induct artists as a means to address the backlog might appease an artist and their fans because said artist is now a "Hall Of Fame inductee," but the Foundation's obligation to historial veracity is compromised every time they do it, and demonstrates either a critical lack of understanding of the subject matter, or lackidaisical commitment to the same.  As for the MC5, maybe one year they'll pull a Stooges and get in over a huge name guitar band (the Stooges beat out both KISS and Red Hot Chili Peppers in 2010), but it's never a smart bet.  Odds of induction: 20%

16. RUFUS FEATURING CHAKA KHAN
Funk-rock group from the '70's and early '80's.  As a group, this is their fourth nomination, seeded #15 for 2012, #16 for 2018, #13 for 2019.
Why they might make it:  They were stylistically diverse, dabbling in funk, roots, disco, ballads and more.  Additionally, Chaka Khan is a name that is known.
Why they might not:  R&B is struggling to get in the Hall right now.  Especially if it's related to disco in any way.  Additionally, Small Hall thinkers want to induct Chaka Khan as a soloist and shuck the rest of the group.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  The Pointer Sisters would benefit greatly by Rufus's induction.  So would Sade, and funk groups like the GAP Band.
Biggest threats:  Whitney Houston is the diva that could be a Chaka-blocker.  Kraftwerk and Depeche Mode also have connections to the dance music scene that could hinder the group as well.  The Notorious B.I.G. is also a big name in R&B to prevent this outfit from getting enshrined.
In the end:  There's no talk of inducting this group in any other category, though the possibility of Chaka getting an Award For Musical Excellence induction for both her group and solo efforts is a scary thought that Small Hallers would gleefully rub their palms for.  Suck rocks, Small Hallers.  Not a chance for this group this year, though.  Odds of induction: 15%


My seeds are planted in their appropriate rows, as I see them.  This is a very difficult ballot to predict a class from, given that the Hall will induct fewer than half of them.  It'd be great to just see the entire ballot inducted.  THAT'S how you address and clear the backlog: just induct more artists.  Seeing as how the Hall just digs their heels in deeper and harder every time someone raises a critique like this, there's no way any real changes are coming this year.  So that's how I'm calling it this year.  We'll find out soon.  It's New Year's Day as I wrap up my prediction post.  We'll know this month who's getting in.  Happy New Year.