Since the announcements will be made Sunday, and this is my only day off until then, let's quickly seed the nominees. In this case, it simply means ranking them in order of likelihood to be inducted, in my humble opinion. My percentages are pulled completely out of thin air, they will not add up to what statistical analysts would say the numbers should all add up to, and are really more about showing how close the margins are between nominees in my mental wrestling. Hopefully, one day I'll be able to do the full write-ups again. It's a tough ballot to predict, and I easily see myself going two for seven as well as five for seven.
Between trading favors for those who've shown up in the past couple years, the undeniable icons, and other trends that we have seen recently seen in past years, there are really only about five that I feel comfortable saying aren't going to make it, and ten that are jockeying to be the top seven seeds. And hey, maybe one of those five will make a fool of me. I'll freely admit to not having the expertise to assess where people will draw lines. It's time to put it down for posterity.
1. Cher
Between the legendary status, and the resentment toward the Hall that is weirdly catnip for voters at times, I think she has the strongest chance. Only real liability is people assuming everyone else will vote for her, and voting elsewhere, thus causing her to turn up short. But I ultimately don't think that will come to pass.
Odds: 90%
2. Kool And The Gang
I still refuse to use the ampersand, but they appeal to nearly everybody for different reasons. And that's the beauty of it: regardless of the reason you vote for them, you're still voting for them. I think that will carry them over the top.
Odds: 80%
3. Foreigner
Classic rock still performs well on the ballot for any group not named the J. Geils Band, and with the campaign Mark Ronson and Mick Jones have going, it's become a bandwagon for voters to jump on. When Paul McCartney is joining the effort to get you in, that will almost certainly get you in. Even if not this time, by the second or third nomination.
Odds: 70%
4. Peter Frampton
Again, classic rock. The "while he's still with us" contingent may come out for him, as well, especially after showing up and playing with Sheryl Crow last year. That likely pushed him to the forefront of the hearts and minds of voters, particularly those who are thinking of the optics of the ceremony. He's almost gift-wrapped to be ceremony-perfect.
Odds: 65%
5. Lenny Kravitz
Speaking of Sheryl Crow, who's the nominee from the 1990s with a fun and popular, but not boundary-pushing, catalog who's got more connections than an AT&T switchboard during the 1970s? His discography is not quite as extensive as Sheryl Crow's, but that simply may not matter.
Odds: 60%
6. A Tribe Called Quest
The lucky three-in-a-row trend may come to a sudden halt with this group, but this is apparently the hill the Hall will die on when it comes to hip-hop. The main problem is if people assume Eric B. & Rakim will just be a Musical Excellence induction, and that will be all the requisite hip-hop representation needed. Still, until it's broken, rely on it.
Odds: 55%
7. Sinead O'Connor
Usually the sympathy vote is a very strong one to bank on. But between her middle-finger ethos to everything that was organizational, people knowing her more for controversy than her music, people only knowing one song of hers, and people appropriating her spirit for more than what she was actually standing against... her candidacy just feels like the center of gravity shifts in your hands and you just can't seem to handle it securely. I'm just not sure, but I'm willing to seed her here, mainly because her induction will be a quick one that'll let the Hall clear that part of the backlog with minimal screen time. This year's Kate Bush, if you will.
Odds: 50%
8. Ozzy Osbourne
He might miss out just because the voters can't be kind to heavy metal unless it's Metallica, but he has the iconic status and image that could carry him over and through. I'd like it, but I'm nervous.
Odds: 49%
9. Mariah Carey
Another one I'm worried might miss out, but would love to be wrong about. She's an icon with the hits, and she would sell tickets to Cleveland. But she's seemingly polarizing and underappreciated for the breadth of her talents. I think she will take one or two more nominations, but please let me be wrong.
Odds: 45%
10. The Dave Matthews Band
The last of the ten, this could be an induction of trading favors. After showing up for Willie Nelson last year and just being so oh-willikers charming, this could be his best chance. Hard call to make, but I still don't think enough voters have warmed up to the catalog at the end of the day.
Odds: 40%
11. Oasis
Some want the drama, some really don't. I think if they got the votes, it'd be a Dire Straits or Radiohead situation, where the members who show up are the ones who aren't related. But not this time.
Odds: 30%
12. Jane's Addiction
I ultimately think they're the Gen X, L.A.-based version of the New York Dolls. They were inventive, original, never reached their fullest potential... and you had to be there to get them, apparently. That's the rub, and in this case, the rub of the eraser.
Odds: 25%
13. Sade
Never completely rule them out, but this is a group that stands a strong chance of just getting lost in the shuffle this time.
Odds: 20%
14. Mary J. Blige
Between the other iconic women and the other hip-hop acts on the ballot, she'll probably also get lost in the shuffle.
Odds: 15%
15. Eric B. And Rakim
Despite having seven choices this year, I think many voters will still "vote strategically," and pick Tribe over them, or they'll just assume the Hall will induct them in Musical Excellence and save their votes for someone else. For getting voted in, not this time, but hopefully eventually.
Odds: 10%
And with that, we wrap up another prediction. Short and sweet. I haven't kept track to see whose predictions I line up with the most, but there you have it. How far was I off? We'll find out Sunday. Do I have any predictions for the other three categories? No. No I don't. I do think if they induct Eric B. And Rakim by fiat, it'll be in Musical Excellence rather than Musical Influence, but I'm not even banking on that to happen this time around. I fizzled out on my #EveryDayWithCarolKaye tweets, and I truly feel guilty and sad about that. I don't know if I could have made a difference if I kept it up, but the overall point is that you could put a different hit record on that she played on every day, and it would last for over a year... just the hits, even. I hope Carol Kaye is announced for induction. I also hope that for Estelle Axton. I'd also like to see backing vocalists start getting recognized too, most preferably the Jordanaires. Just no more lawyers or agents, please. And no critics either. See ya Sunday; it'll be the first time I intentionally tune in to "American Idol."
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