And then there were six....more

Earlier this week, we were treated to the news that there are in fact going to be six more Performer inductees this year in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  First off, I wanna give big props to Tom Lane for getting the scoop on it.  And for the cajones he writes with in his two unapologetic, post de facto blog entries.  Indeed it was a big thing.  Not just because they were inductees, but also because of who they are and what their inductions represent.  It represents the Hall's commitment to doing it right, which is always getting called into question whether it's because they don't nominate the acts that the people want most to see inducted, or because they induct a Performer nominee as an Early Influence, or because of the secretive process.  With these inductions, the Hall shows the integrity to both admit their mistakes and correct them.  It also means the curing of Front Man Fever, which I pointed out in great length (but maybe not enough, as I also forgot to mention the Rae-letts and Them), and maybe we'll see more of these in the future.  It's tough to tell sometimes.  We already saw one case being cured with the induction of the (Small) Faces, but the additions of these are certainly welcome.

But onto the actual good news of who's finally getting their dues: the Blue Caps, the Comets, the Crickets, the Famous Flames, the Midnighters, and the Miracles.  In an article about these six getting inducted, the author called it "the Rock Hall doing the right thing the wrong way."  I have to admit, that was my gut reaction to it, too.  But upon further reflection, is it really the wrong way to go about it? 

First, let's consider how they're getting inducted: as Performers.  Not Sidemen or Award For Musical Excellence, but Performers.  With the possible exception of the Famous Flames (and maybe the Blue Caps), this is absolutely the right call.  These were bands and groups that should have been included with the lead man's induction.  Second, the special committee version rather than the regular ballot.  Was it the right call?  With the possible exception of the Miracles, I would have to say absolutely yes again.  Putting these acts on the ballot next year would most likely result in dismal failure.  With the leads already inducted, there would undoubtedly be voters who felt the music and possibly the act overall already represented, perhaps symbolically with the lead, and thus didn't necessitate the rest of the group being inducted.  And since they should have been inducted with the lead in the first place, it was definitely the right decision, since putting them on a future ballot would only further serve to justify the original separations in the first place.  Lastly, it's because of who the inductees are.  Take a look:

-The Blue Caps: Gene Vincent was such a powerful frontman on the records that we can symapthize with the Hall inducting only him in 1998, but the backing rhythm section and backing vocals from the Blue Caps, added to the fact that they were always credited on the records, helped make Vincent the innovative name in rockabilly and rock'n'roll that he was.

-The Comets: Do I really need to elaborate on this one?  Just in case, YES.  Haley was a pioneer in terms of blending R&B and country together to make the sound of rock'n'roll, but in order to fine-tune that marriage, you need a band behind you to help make the sound a reality.  And with songs like "Rudy's Rock", and "The Saints Rock 'N' Roll" where Haley gives accolades to his band, there's no doubt how it should've been.  If Haley had been alive when he was inducted, I'm sure he'd have dedicated his induction to his band members, particularly to his sax player and longtime friend, Rudy Pompilli.

-The Crickets: File this one under forgivable, too.  The story of Buddy Holly's success as a rock'n'roll pioneer cannot be told without backing it against the context of his struggles with his record labels, Coral and Brunswick.  While the story varies, there's at least one telling that the Crickets only really came about because Holly couldn't have released "That'll Be The Day" under his own name via the label he wanted without landing in legal hot water, and Holly needed a band together to justify it, hence the formation of the Crickets.  Whatever the real story is, however, the Crickets were there through the thick of the heyday, and more importantly, on the majority of those records that make Holly's legacy live on.  If anything, this should have been the original joint nomination.  So a big yes for them getting in this way.

-The Famous Flames: Admittedly, I'm actually kind of on the fence with this one.  James Brown was the Godfather of Soul, not the Famous Flames as the Godfathers of Soul.  The Famous Flames were the backing vocal group, not the instrument players on the records, and since many of those records credited to James Brown and the Famous Flames didn't have any background vocals on them whatsoever, it makes their merit a little less impressive in my book.  They were there at the very beginning and helped Brown's career take off on important records like "Please, Please, Please" and "Try Me", so they probably should be in.  I would have chosen them as Award For Musical Excellence recipients, but either way, they're in, so it's a good thing.

-The Midnighters: For crying out loud, they were known as just "The Midnighters" before they were known as "Hank Ballard And The Midnighters."  Their presence was always there, Ballard's solo career is really more of a footnote of the group's legacy.  Unequivocally, yes to their inclusion.

-The Miracles: A thorny spot.  Unlike the other lead men (except Brown), the solo career of Smokey Robinson is very distinct in both terms of sound and duration.  Smokey's solo career has been a great success in its own right, and so, inducting him as a soloist isn't a bad call in itself.  It's only a bad call of sorts given that he hadn't really been performing as a soloist for 25 years before he was nominated and inducted.  His induction was pretty much based on his career as a Miracle, who were one the major powerhouse acts of Motown.  Of all six of the groups here, the Miracles are the only one I would have had go through the regular nominating process to secure their own induction.  And I think they'd have been a cinch to clinch, too.  Still, they're getting in.  So yay all around.

Which now brings us to other groups still not in with their lead.  I've pointed out how I feel about these six.  So what about others?  Should they get the special committee Performer induction?  Or something else?  For brevity's sake, I'm just going to break it up into categories and list which groups I believe belong in each, without going into excessive detail.

Since Early Influences are chosen by special committee, there's no scandal if a special committe inducts them
the Tympany Five, the Drifting Cowboys, the Hot Five/Seven, the Blue Grass Boys, the Weavers, the Benny Goodman Orchestra, the Blues Jumpers, Jelly Roll Morton's Red Hot Peppers, King Cole Trio, Charles Brown Trio, Teddy Wilson Orchestra, Billie Holiday's Orchestra

Performers who should get in via special committee
The Wailers, Miles Davis' Quintet

Performers that should go through the ballot process
The Belmonts (with Dion getting in a second time), Big Brother And The Holding Company (ditto for Joplin), the Valentinos (ditto with Womack), Them (second time for Morrison) the Blossoms (ditto with Love, but with special caveat that I'll address in a future blog)

Those that should be inducted in Sideman/Award For Musical Excellence
The Jordanaires, the Gliders, Crazy Horse, the Mothers Of Invention, the E Street Band, Wings, the Revolution, the New Power Generation, the Silver Bullet Band, Patti Smith's Group, Jeff Beck's Group, the Rae-letts/Cookies, DJ Hurricane (for the work with the Beastie Boys), the Tennessee Two

Not necessary to get around to at all
The Teen-Kings, Mary Ford, the Rhythmakers, the Broomdusters, the Flying Machine, the Plastic Ono Band


Just my thoughts on who goes where.  Lastly, I just want to say congratulations to all the groups finally getting in, and thank-you to the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame people for correcting these injustices.

Oh, and P.S., I suspect that these six groups will be inducted with one speech like the songwriters were in 2010.  Since Vincent, Haley, Holly, Brown, and Ballard are all deceased, there's only one man I can think of who could rightly do the honors.  How about it Smokey?

If the joint nom's a-rockin' Part 1 of 2

This year’s Hall Of Fame class shows many different possible trends. With half of the inductees having been eligible for less than five years, we see the possibility of future classes being comprised of recently eligible artists only, which is bad news for the KISS army and the Rush faithful. With Tom Dowd, Cosimo Matassa, and Glyn Johns being inducted in the Award For Musical Excellence (formerly known as Sideman) category rather than the Ahmet Ertegun Award category (formerly known as Non-Performer), we see that either the Hall Of Fame people consider engineers to be musicians, with the control board their musical instrument; or the Award For Musical Excellence really is more than just a renaming of the Sideman category, and we’ll see different things done in the future than they’ve been doing now. Worst of all, the induction of Freddie King as an Early Influence shows that the Hall Of Fame is neither apologetic about their mistakes (such as inducting Wanda Jackson as an Early Influence in 2009), nor any longer concerned about how they define concepts.

But a close second to King’s miscasting as an Early Influence for the honor of being the darkest cloud on the horizon is what is fondly referred to as the “joint nomination” of the Small Faces and Faces, or “Small Faces/Faces” as they were printed on the ballot. This was one of the most heated debates, if not the most heated, during the time between the announcements of the nominees and of the inductees. In a two-part effort, I’m going to dissect both sides of this issue, dealing primarily this time with the issue of Small Faces/Faces, and how the Hall nearly got it completely right this time.

It’s not an entirely foreign concept, mind you. The induction of “the Drifters” stood for both the Clyde McPhatter-era and the era that began as a renaming of the Five Crowns. The induction of Ricky Nelson also included the years billed as “Rick Nelson”, which admittedly is an incredibly fine hair to split. The induction of “Genesis” included both the years with and without Peter Gabriel. Van Halen’s induction included the post-Roth years derisively referred to by Diamond Dave devotees as “Van Hagar.” No one had a second thought about inducting the funk outfit under the joint moniker of “Parliament/Funkadelic”. We wouldn’t see the necessity of separate inductions for the Young Rascals and the Rascals, and perhaps most germane to the topic, there’s been a certain amount of ambiguity as to whether or not the induction of Jefferson Airplane also hailed the accomplishments of the Jefferson-less Starship era.

For the record, I supported the joint nomination. Like the Hall, I agree that it’s always been one band. As one NomCom member put it, the band could best be defined as “[Ian McLagan], Ronnie [Lane], and Kenney [Jones] working with...whomever they work with.” That definition has the diehard Small Faces fans foaming at the mouth, incensed. For some of them, Steve Marriott WAS the Small Faces, or at the very least the Small Faces couldn’t and didn’t exist without him, similar to how some would say the Beatles weren’t really the Beatles with Pete Best on the sticks, or Sammy Hagar was never really a member of Van Halen. For them, if any joint nomination should have taken place, it should have been “Small Faces/Humble Pie”, but they wouldn’t have done that, because they feel Marriott deserves induction at least twice.

The problem with this train of thought is that it all but sides with every case of Front Man Fever out there, and even pushes it to further extremes. If Steve Marriott was the Small Faces, then not only was Smokey Robinson the entire worth of the Miracles, Hank Ballard of the Midnighters, Paul McCartney of Wings, and so on, but then also Barry Gibb was the BeeGees, Diana Ross was the Supremes, Felix Caveliere was the Rascals, Steven Tyler was Aerosmith, etc. Put simply, this train of thought pretty much misses the entire concept of a group or band, and while there are occasionally members that hold the group together, it also usually takes a group consensus of dissolution for a group or band to be broken up. That isn’t what happened here. Steve left, Rod Stewart and Ron Wood came in, and the group continued.

There’s one other big and one lesser argument that are also used to argue against the joint nomination (and upcoming induction) of the Small Faces/Faces. The big one that still gets pulled out quite frequently is that their sound and style were much different in the Rod Stewart era than it was in the Steve Marriott era. Well, it’s easy to say that “Stay With Me” is much different than “Sha La La La Lee”, but it’d be sheer ignorance to say that the sound jumped from point A to point B without having ever evolved. The main piece of evidence I would like to submit at this point would be First Step, the first album released with Rod Stewart and Ron Wood as part of the band. If you listen critically, you’ll find that tracks like “Stone” and “Devotion” still emulate much of the same elements from the later songs of the Marriott days, like “Autumn Stone” and “Afterglow (Of Your Love).” Is it exactly like “Autumn Stone” or “Afterglow (Of Your Love)”? No, but then again, it wouldn’t be an evolution if it sounded exactly like those songs. Plus, it’d be unfair to expect Stewart to just impersonate Marriott without bringing anything new to the table himself, and Wood to be pretty much nothing at all in the band. Then there are songs like “Around The Plynth” and their cover of “Wicked Messenger” that point to the eventual direction of songs like “Ooh La La.” This album is a critical step in the evolution of the sound of the band.

Furthermore, it’s also worth noting that First Step is credited to “Small Faces”, not “Faces.” That means that Rod Stewart and Ron Wood were officially members of the Small Faces before the named got whittled down by a word. Steve Marriott was replaced, the group continued, and THEN the word “Small” was removed from the name. It would be technically correct to induct all six members under the moniker “Small Faces” and leave it at that, or “(Small) Faces” would work as well to better indicate the continuity of the history.

Which comes to the more minor argument some use to discredit that album by saying that they didn’t want to be called “Small Faces” or “Faces”, but the record company forced them to go with the familiar name. The proper response to this argument is “Boo-de-freakin’-hoo.” The Five Crowns were forced by the execs at Atlantic to adopt the name “the Drifters” to get their career going. Paul Revere And The Raiders wanted to keep the fact that one of the members was in fact named Paul Revere on the QT, but the record company insisted on capitalizing on it as much as possible, which even led to the Revolutionary War outfits. The corporate brass of White Whale Records forced the Turtles to spell their name correctly, rather than replacing the “u” with a “e,” “i,” or “y” like they had wanted. Let’s also keep in mind that many performers in music, movies, and television have to adopt stage names to make their act more memorable and more pronounceable. So yeah, the argument holds no water. Whatever the reason, whosever decision it was, the group was still known as the Small Faces at the time, and then later chose to call themselves the Faces.

In conclusion, the joint nomination of the Small Faces/Faces may be unpopular, but it is pretty defensible, and ultimately, imo, the right call to make. My main concern with it at this point is the potential for abuse this has down the line, which will be addressed in part two.

When the fifteen nominees for this year’s class were announced, I proceeded to rank those fifteen nominees in as objective a fashion as possible.  While I expected a lot of criticism for my rankings, the feedback was actually pretty encouraging, as most applauded my objective take.  Now, I try to take on a bigger task.  This time, I intend to rank all the past nominees who have yet to be inducted.  To date, there are thirty-five nominees who have not been inducted.  I am not including the five nominees who were later inducted in other categories (including this year’s Early Influence, Freddie King).  As I did last time, I tried once again to give innovation, influence, and impact (including commercial success) as equal footing as possible; I also tried to show no favoritism towards any particular genre or sub-genre of rock ‘n’ roll, meaning punk, doo-wop, hip-hop—all for the most part treated as equally (there was some discounting of country) as possible.  Remember, these are acts that have actually been nominated.  Not ones that should have, and this isn't a list of biggest snubs. 

The number rankings aren’t completely hard and set.  It’s more of a general area of where I place them.  Give or take about three places, or so.  Parenthetical numbers are the number of nominations so far.  Enough with the jibber-jabber.  Time to give you all something to complain about.

35. Conway Twitty (1):  He was a teen idol in his early days and a country superstar later on, neither of which tend to bode that well with getting an act inducted.  Additionally, not much influence.

34. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts (1): Despite the resounding party rock anthem of “I Love Rock ‘N Roll”, she has very little to her credit that goes beyond her mere riot girl image

33. Steve Winwood (1):  As a reminder, we’re only talking about his solo career, which has some cool breeze kinds of songs, but didn’t really break any new ground. 

32. Cat Stevens (1):  As far as singer/songwriters of the ‘70s go, his hardness of rocking places him somewhere between Gordon Lightfoot and Don McLean, with lyrics that were occasionally the wrong (read: TMI) kind of “personal.”

31. Randy Newman (1):  His greatest asset, his turn-of-phrase cleverness, is also his greatest liability.  He makes well-crafted songs that tend to come off as novelty.  He has a certain amount of influence, but it’s mostly of bourgeois appeal and doesn’t travel as far as it should.

30. Esther Phillips (2):  Her pre-‘60s (and arguably pre-rock era) hits were almost exclusively as the chanteuse for whatever name Johnny Otis’s band went by on any given record, and so inducting her as a soloist based on those is not entirely fitting.  Her ‘60s-and-later hits were sporadic and primarily covers, which doesn’t garner much accolades.

29. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band (1):  Despite a small handful of classics, even the fact that his band was interracial didn’t really fuel a blues revival during the height of the British Invasion.  Call it bad timing: had he broken out in the early ‘80s before his death in 1987, he could have had a good run of hits on the newly created “Top [[Album] Rock] Tracks” chart, a chart that helped spread the name, music, and reputation of another great blues revival outfit: Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble.

28. Johnny Ace (2):  A promising career cut short by folly.  Still, he had some good accomplishments as an R&B singer leading up to that.

27. The Sir Douglas Quintet (1):  They were innovative and influential in helping to create a new sub-genre; however, Tex-Mex is still a pretty niche style of music, and not all that pertinent to represent in the Hall Of Fame.

26. Gram Parsons (3):  Another powerful one-two combo of innovation and influence; however, alt-country pioneering really merits induction into the Country Music Hall Of Fame, not the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, however strongly alt-country and its pioneers are linked to the folk-rock and the ever-changing music scenes of the late-‘60’s. 

25. The Chantels (2):  Broke out at the same time as the Shirelles, but never reached the same heights.  Still, “Maybe” and “Look In My Eyes” are excellent records and foundational to the girl group sound.

24. The Meters (1): Moderately influential in the realms of funk and soul, but not a lot of name recognition, and the songs are only somewhat well known.

23. Rufus with Chaka Khan (1): They had a solid string of R&B hits, dispersed intermittently with Chaka’s solo career, but as a group, the Pop crossover was not so immense, and they ended up standing in the shadows of bigger acts of the time.

22. Mary Wells (2):  Despite an enviable run of both R&B and Pop chart success, her chief accomplishment was really done by the Marvelettes first, even if it was on “Tamla” rather than the titular mother company “Motown.”  However, she also did help bring a Latin flavor to the R&B scene, which is something in itself, as many danceable rap songs nowadays are danceable because they’re infused with danceable Latin rhythmic schemes. 

21. The “5” Royales (2):  With an impressive string of six Top Ten R&B chart hits in the early-to-mid-‘50s, this vocal R&B group would make a fine representative of doo-wop.

20. Chuck Willis (6): Another career cut way too short, his legacy as the “Stroll King” or “Sheik Of The Blues” culminates nicely to get him six nominations so far.  The man who helped bring dancing to rock ‘n’ roll music, he’d be undisputed royalty if he’d lived and recorded through the ‘50s.

19. The J. Geils Band (3): Solid blues-influenced rock ‘n’ roll band with a solid run of hits and classics, but not regarded as being all that influential or innovative, and some even claim cronyism for their three nominations to date.

18. Afrika Bambaataa (1): Recognized as one of the founding fathers of hip-hop, but having never gotten big beyond the New York scene, and without the Soul Sonic Force as part of his nomination, he doesn’t merit any higher on the list.

17. Joe Tex (4): An impressive string of R&B and Pop chart hits, and considered by some to help influence rap’s style of vocal delivery, but he wasn’t the only one doing that (see also: Johnnie Taylor), and a lot of his songs are variations on the same theme.

16. The New York Dolls (1): Surprisingly influential in both the worlds of punk and of glam.  No real chart success, and arrived a few years after a couple of the other proto-punk acts.

15. Lou Reed (2): Probably unpopular call to put him this low, but the “godfather of punk” is too closely tied to his former group to earn his solo career the serious individual merit it may or may not deserve.  Plus, limited commercial success.  Still, he’s in the upper half of this list.

14. War (2): Funky Latin rock music.  They crossed a lot of barriers with memorable songs, despite not being very innovative.

13. Bon Jovi (1): Though not hugely innovative, they are a household name with a huge amount of commercial success and arguably epitomize an entire decade or generation.

12. Chic (6): “Good Times” is an extremely important record, plus their musical proficiency and production wizardry, it stands to reason that they’re going to get in eventually.

11. Heart (1): A powerhouse rock act whose songs have had staying power, and successfully spanned two somewhat different mini-epochs in rock ‘n’ roll history.

10. Eric B. And Rakim (1): Extremely well-crafted and flawlessly executed hip-hop music that took it to new levels, bridging two ages of hip-hop.

9. The MC5 (1): The proto-punk act that pioneered distortion as a musical gimmick, and helped influence a lot of bands, plus the title alone of their only hit, “Kick Out The Jams” seems to sum up the movement they helped create..

8. Ben E. King (3): Another solo artist that had some trouble distinguishing himself from his former group, this man had more commercial success than Reed, plus two songs that are absolute milestones of 60’s R&B, one of which contains the arguably most important and famous bass line in all of rock ‘n’ roll.

7. The Spinners (1): Among the groups that facilitated the transition from smooth soul to disco and beyond, they were one of the best.  A long string of R&B and Pop hits make them an eventuality now that they’ve finally been nominated.

6. The Dominoes (1): A full dozen Top 10 R&B hits in the formative days of rock ‘n’ roll, managing to cross over twice to the mainstream audience despite the for-the-time raunchy nature of “Sixty-Minute Man”, helped knock down the racial barriers, a seminal group of the pre-Elvis rock ‘n’ roll years.

5. Donna Summer (4): The Queen Of Disco helped influence a future generation of R&B and dance music stars, plus a superstar of the Pop, R&B and disco scene in her own right.

4. Kraftwerk (1): A Krautrock act that evolved greatly and is basically responsible for electronica music becoming what it is today.

3. The Cure (1): They’re the group that struck the alternative scene in its epicenter and sent it spiraling in many different directions.  A fair amount of commercial success to go with it, too.

2. LL Cool J (2): One of rap’s first superstars, not only did he help rap transition from an outfit form to a solo MC’s game, he also helped segue R&B into its smoother form during the mid-‘90s.  Much of mainstream pop music today is still built somewhat upon plans he helped lay.

1. KISS (1): While Nirvana may have ended KISS’s reign of influence (or maybe not), those years were an incredibly fruitful era, with many young guitarists influenced by KISS.  Their commercial success is extensive though seldom ever top of the heap.  Nonetheless, they’re cultural icons transcending more than just their genre, they transcended their industry.

So there you go, the thirty-five nominated-but-not-in acts.  It’s not definitive, but it’s an attempt.  Feel free to tear it apart.

P.S.  Welcome to 2012.

It ain't un-Rock to celebrate.

I love Christmas music.  Just about any kind.  Not every, but just about.  There are some songs out there that should truly never be played again.  But overall, I look forward to breaking out my catalog of Christmas music and making my way through as much of it as I can.

So I find it a little disheartening that more people don't enjoy it.  Especially in the rock circles.  Whether they think it's hokey, or they got inundated with it as children that it now makes them sick, or they hate all organized religion so vehemently, or just Christianity in general, that Christmas music is just anathema.  But one that is actually more funny than not is the argument that rock music is about being anti-establishment and there is nothing more "establishment" than the music of both a religious and federal holiday.

Well, to put it simply, the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame disagrees with you.  And all you need to do is look at their inductees.

First off, some of my favorite albums are Christmas albums by Hall Of Famers: Booker T. & The M.G.'s, the Ventures, the Four Seasons, the Beach Boys, Elvis Presley, Fats Domino, and the legendary album from Non-Performer Phil Spector (which featured Hall Of Famers the Ronettes, Darlene Love, and session players Hal Blaine and Leon Russell).  

And let's not forget Motown either.  Classic renditions of Christmas songs from the family built by Berry Gordy, Jr. including the Temptations, the Supremes, Gladys Knight And The Pips, the Jackson Five, plus original gems from Stevie Wonder  (which would also include James Jamerson and Benny Benjamin as Sidemen).  And not just Motown, but other soul greats that have chipped in at Christmastime include James Brown, the O'Jays, Aretha Franklin, Solomon Burke and Otis Redding.

The founding fathers of rock'n'roll were kind to Christmas too.  Already mentioned James Brown, Fats Domino, and Elvis, but let's not forget Chuck Berry, Bill Haley, Ray Charles, Roy Orbison, Ricky Nelson, the Drifters (both eras), etc.  We also can add Bobby Darin and Dion to that list as well.

Want it to be more modern?  We can go with Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers' "Christmas All Over Again", U2's versions of "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" and "Ave Maria".  Past nominee Bon Jovi has also had a couple Christmas songs.  Run-D.M.C.'s "Christmas Is" and the slightly embarrassing "Christmas In Hollis" bring rap to the scene.  Love her or hate her, Madonna's a part of both the Hall and the holidays with her rendition of "Santa Baby."  Bob Seger in the early days had "Sock It To Me Santa" and in later years had a version of "The Little Drummer Boy."  Police frontman Sting gave us the ethereal "Gabriel's Message" and former Fleetwood Mac member Stevie Nicks had a somber and sincere rendition of "Silent Night".  The leading sisters of past ballot nominee Heart aso took part in the festivities.  And even though they haven't been considered yet, new-wave devotees will note the amazing "Thanks For Christmas" performed by XTC under the pseudonym of "Three Wise Men."

Even the Beatles would put out annual Christmas records for members of their fan club (produced by George Martin), including "Christmastime Is Here Again."  Paul McCartney of course went on to put out "Wonderful Christmastime" backed with the interesting "Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reggae."  And while satirical at the time, we play John Lennon's "Happy Xmas (War Is Over)" with all sincerity and hope.  Though not as blatantly holiday related, I was pleased to ring in the New Year with George Harrison's "Ding Dong; Ding Dong."

And of course there's Darlene Love and Brenda Lee, two Hall Of Famers remembered best for their Christmas material.  Or Elton John with his perennial classic "Step Into Christmas".  2011 inductee Neil Diamond also has his "You Make It Feel Like Christmas."

And how about Early Influences?  Louis Jordan and Charles Brown for instance, and hopefully soon Sister Rosetta Tharpe or Amos Milburn?

The point is, there is nothing un-Rock about Christmas.  Even the likes of future possibilities Jethro Tull and Twisted Sister have found a way to be part of the celebration.  Christmas is for all music, all genres, and all people, whether you're the people who actually celebrate the Christian aspect, those who simply love seeing the glow on children's faces when they get that new toy they wanted, those who believe in goodwill towards mankind as helping establish world peace... Christmas has something for everyone. 

And to quote the song made famous by Early Influence inductee Nat "King" Cole: Although it's been said many times, many ways: Merry Christmas to you.

2012 Inductee thoughts

Well, the 2012 inductees have been announced, and it's now the time for everyone who pays attention to give their opinion. 

My first thought was, "Crap, they leaked early again?!"

Second thought: No Spinners?  Rats.

Third thought: Just what WILL it take to get Sister Rosetta Tharpe inducted as an Early Influence?

On that last point, there's an article on Future Rock Legends about why inducting Freddie King as an Early Influence is a bad idea.  I highly recommend reading it.  The only thing I can add to it for now, though I feel a separate entry about the subject brewing up inside my fingers waiting to be typed out, is that the Rock Hall has always been irregular about which blues players get in as a Performer, and which go in as an Early Influence, especially those blues players that were around at the dawn of rock and roll.  B.B. King, Buddy Guy, Ruth Brown, John Lee Hooker and Muddy Waters are all Performer inductees, while Howlin' Wolf, Elmore James, and Willie Dixon get the Early Influence inductions.  What makes Freddie King so unique is that he had no releases before 1955 and never made any Billboard chart entry until 1960, so calling him "Early" by any stretch of the imagination just doesn't hold up.

None of that really addresses Sister Rosetta Tharpe, though.  Simply put, after being featured in the Museum's "Women Who Rock" exhibit, Tharpe seemed like a lock.  And we were ultimately disappointed. 

Also disappointing, at least for me, was no Spinners.  That's more just me.  I love their music, I feel they're really deserving, but like Tom Lane said on his blog, they're bound to be back.  You don't "one and done" a truly phenomenal soul group.

Don Kirshner getting the Ahmet Ertegun Award... I never would have guessed it.  I figured his chances were about the same as bubblegum music magnates Jerry Kasenetz and Jeff Katz.  Very pleasantly surprised.

It's worth noting that all three of the Musical Excellence Award recipients were primarily studio engineers, which strikes me as fascinating since we were unsure just WHAT was going to be done with this category.  When it was announced last year, the Foundation said it opened the door for new possibilities that weren't there before.  Honestly, I'm not seeing it so far.  Why couldn't these three have been Non-Performer inductees as well as Kirshner?  Is the mixing board enough like a musical instrument that these engineers are best placed in the category that used to be called Side-Man?  Well, if nothing else, it seems more than likely that "Musical Excellence" is not just a more politically correct version of  saying "Side-Man".  And all three deserve it, especially Tom Dowd, but congratulations to Glyn Johns and Cosimo Matassa as well.

And now for the Performers who did make the grade.  One thing that I feel absolutely must be pointed out is that this is the first time since 2006 that the repeat nominees constitute the majority of the inductees, four to two (three if you count King), which is two-thirds of the Performer inductees AND two-thirds of the repeat nominees getting in; the first-time nominees make up one-third of the Performer inductees and one-third of the first-time nominees are getting inducted.  Also, with Guns N' Roses, Donovan, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, the Small Faces/the Faces, and even the Beastie Boys and the spirit of Laura Nyro in the room too, we're sure to have one hell of an all-star jam at the end of the ceremonies (maybe one of Nyro's songs?  Doubt it), if egos and old wounds don't interfere.  Onto the class.
 
Guns N' Roses...everybody and their Aunt Ruthie called that one correctly.  And I'm proud that I'm one of the very few who correctly predicted  Laura Nyro as well.  Unfortunately, that's the extent of my correct guesses.  Still I can't be too sad.  I love the Beastie Boys and Donovan, so I'm glad they're in.  In a past entry, I wrote how I loathe the music of the Red Hot Chili Peppers, but in the entry before that one, I also admitted that they were probably the most objectively deserving act on the ballot.  It's like when a referee or umpire makes the possibly tough and probably unpopular, but ultimately right call that ends up hurting your team (Suh, you don't kick another player, dangit).  They deserve to be in.  These three are also loads off my mind in terms of wrenching my predictions in the past.  Both of the Beastie Boys' previous nominations and the lone previous nominations of both Donovan and the Red Hot Chili Peppers saw me place them as pretty strong locks.  Now the year I don't pick them, all three make it.  But as I said in my recap on the Chili Peppers, I have no idea how they missed out in 2010 either.  I won't question why now and not then, just glad that it's over for those three, all deserving members.

Which brings us to The Small Faces/The Faces.  I have to phrase it gingerly, to make sure I'm not misunderstood.  Their joint nomination has been wildly unpopular, especially with member of both incarnations Ian McLagan.  And with them getting inducted like this, it's bound to spur further joint nominations, an idea to which many of us Monitors are not particularly receptive.  Add to that the fact that they were the last band to be leaked out.  Early reports only mentioned the other five, and that was all we expected, since that's all they've inducted for the past six years, and voters only got to vote for up to five.  The fact that The Small Faces/The Faces were excluded initially by the leaks leads me to believe that they finished sixth in the voting and would normally have been left out.  Naturally I don't know for fact.  I can only speculate.  Maybe the votes ran so close and they decided not to shaft the close contender.  Maybe there was tie for fifth,  and rather than cast a tie-breaker, Jann S. Wenner decided to allow six Performer inductees this time.

Whatever the circumstances, however the votes totaled, we have six Performer inductees.  To which I say, good.  Ultimately, one of the chief complaints about the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, after the usual who's not in complaints, is that they simply don't induct enough acts each year.  Maybe we can get them to push this number back up to seven, or higher.

Just induct them in the right categories.

Plug those leaks

For the Class of 2007, it was David Lee Roth of Van Halen
For the Class of 2008, it was John Cougar Mellencamp (and to a lesser extent Bob Bogle of the Ventures)
For the Class of 2009, it was Wanda Jackson
For the Class of 2010, nobody did it (that I know of).
For 2012, the safe money says if anyone, it's Axl Rose of Guns N' Roses, should they make it.

Of course, this is referring to the premature revelation of being elected for Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame induction, leaking the news that they've been selected before the official announcement can be made by the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame Foundation.  And for awhile, it was fun.  One act leaking it out that they've made it gives us a sneak preview.  It's like the trailers in the movies: you get a glimpse of the plot and who the major characters are, but it only heightens the anticipation and desire to actually go and see the whole movie.  It was much the same for the Rock Hall.  Knowing who one inductee would be made you all the more interested to see who got the other four seats, now that one chair has been filled.  In the case of Wanda Jackson, it was even more interesting, because it hadn't been revealed that she was an Early Influence inductee. 

But after what happened with the Class of 2011, I'm officially declaring that leaks are NOT welcome anymore.  For those who don't know, the entire Class of 2011 was leaked before the official announcement.  At first, they announced the five Performer inductees.  When I read  it, I was foremost glad that Darlene Love finally got her proper respect, but also kind of bummed that there was almost no surprise left.  Then I remembered that we still had the other categories to go.  Any Side-Men?  Early Influences?  Non-Performers?  Well, that could be our surprise.

No such luck.  That too was leaked out in short order.  There we were, we had the entire class before it could be announced.  And it felt like a letdown.  A bummer really.  The official announcement was a mere formality.  Someone joked about wikileaks ruining the surprise, but it still didn't make up for the fact that it actually kinda sucked to know before they could announce it.  It was like knowing all the major category winners from the Oscars before they could open the envelopes and announce them.

What made it worse is that NONE of the news came from the actual inductees themselves.  Alice Cooper was finally hounded into confirming the rumors, but only after the whole thing had been blown.  When an inductee lets on they're going to be inducted, you get their joy, flowing over the brim at the news, showing through even in print form.  When it comes from someone inside the Foundation, it's not the same.  Plus, that inductee only knows about THEM, not everyone else.

This year, the deadline for the votes is December 5th, this coming Monday, with the announcement slated for the 15th, roughly a week and a half later.  So, if there's any way we can spread the message around to eventually get back to whoever does it, make the message clear: DON'T LEAK THE NEWS!  Why?

1. If you're not one of the inductees yourself, you don't have the same elan they would have in announcing the news.  You're the guy who gets their jollies by wrecking the end of movies for others.

2. It's ultimately classless.

3. For us, this is like the Oscars, and we enjoy the anticipation leading up to the moment because it allows for spirited discussion as the deadline nears.  Don't take that away from us either.

4. After succesfully leaking the ENTIRE Class of 2011, there's nowhere else to go.  You've climbed Mount Everest.  No taller peak than that.  Now that we know it can be done, we realize that it's no fun, and there's no way to improve upon it further or outdo it.  Doing it again doesn't outdo it, it just makes it redundant.

So please, unless you're one of the inductees, keep your freggin' trap shut.  And once one inductee has been leaked, other inductees please don't ruin the surprise for us.  We want the elation to build up for your induction announcement so we can share your joy.  It can't build up to its proper apex if leaked early.

Thank-you very much.

Predicting the Final Five.

Did I say Thanksgiving?  Guess I meant Halloween..Now we come to the main event, trying to predict who the five inductees will be out of the fifteen nominees on the ballot.  No easy feat.  Looking at them all and trying to figure out one way or the other, trying to predict how Hall Of Fame voters will vote, trying to keep personal feelings out of it, it’s all a tough mix.  In a previous entry, I mentally slow-roasted the merits of each candidate with the seasoning of personal taste, and got what I figured would be my actual ballot if I were a voting member: Guns N’ Roses, the Cure, the Spinners, the Beastie Boys, and Donna Summer.  But how realistic would this vote be against what’s likely to happen?  Well, as tough as it is, I’ll now try to sort them out   Again, this is just my opinion regarding the likelihood that they’ll be in the Class of 2012.  The top five ranked acts are my actual prediction.  The next three or four are the ones I seriously considered but had to cut the selection down; they’re the ones that I figure are most likely to upset my prediction.  The rest are the ones I don’t figure as too strong as contenders for this ballot.  Onto the predictions.

1. Guns N’ Roses

Hard-rock band featuring famed guitarist Slash, and celebrated frontman Axl Rose.  Newly eligible, thus first-time nominee.

Why they might make it: Hugely successful band whose songs are still known today, and even received new life due to inclusions in the “Rock Band” and “Guitar Hero” video games series.  One of the most artistically respected bands of the ‘80s hard rock scene.  They’re also a very recognizable image in the rock world.

Why they might not: The ‘80s hard rock scene is not very artistically respected overall, negatively referred to as “hair metal.”  Also, Axl Rose’s persona of late has been much like that of Public Enemy hype-man Flavor Flav: the more exposure he gets alone, without the rest of the group, the more embarrassing he looks, which in turn reflects marginally poorly on the rest of the group.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The once-nominated-but-missed bands KISS and Bon Jovi might get another nomination once these guys are in.  They also may make it more possible for acts like Pantera and Slayer to get some recognition as well.

Their biggest threats:  This ballot is full of self-divisions.  In this case, the Red Hot Chili Peppers are the most obvious, but so are the likes of the Cure, Heart, and even Joan Jett And The Blackhearts.

In the end: For every embarrassment Axl brings about, Slash counters, letting his axe do the talking, reminding us why we loved their music.  Also, if the artistic respect for their brand of rock is laid out on a spectrum, Guns N’ Roses are closer to Van Halen than KISS.  Van Halen’s in.  I think Guns N’ Roses are an obvious choice.  And Axl’s the obvious candidate to leak the news of their selection before the official announcement.  Induction chances:  98%

2. The Cure

New-wave band that really helped ignite and fuel the independent label and underground music scenes.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: They’re artistically revered, with songs like “Lovesong” and “Friday, I’m In Love,” and they had just enough commercial success to gain a nod of approval from the mainstream crowd.  They’re considered hugely influential, and pretty innovative, too.

Why they might not:  There’s a hesitance to recognize bands with revolving-door lineups.  Plus, new-wave music is pretty sparse with recognition, only having Blondie in so far to help represent the style.  There may also be resentment that Sonic Youth or the Smiths aren’t representing this scene this year, though I think that’s less the opinion of those who vote and represents only those who really want to see the Smiths and Sonic Youth inducted.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The Smiths and Sonic Youth.  Plus, a number of influential indie scene rock acts.  Plus, possibly for more new-wave acts as well.

Their biggest threats: Both Guns N’ Roses and the Red Hot Chili Peppers are obvious threats, but so also is War, a band with a reputation of coolness that the Cure also has.

In the end: It seems very akin to 2007: a hair-band and an ‘80s alternative-scene band are the obvious choices.  Instead of Van Halen and R.E.M. though, it’s now Guns N’ Roses and the Cure.  And I think both will make it this time, too.  Induction chances:  95%.

3. The Spinners

Superstar Philly-soul vocal group from Detroit, Michigan.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: The Hall loves to recognize soul groups, and since the induction of the O’Jays, people have been wondering when the Spinners would get their turn.  They had a string of incredible soul classics in the ‘70s.  Also, having been discovered by Harvey Fuqua, of the Hall Of Fame group the Moonglows, there’s a hint of right people in the right places.

Why they might not: Even the O’Jays missed out their first nomination.  Also, with so many sub-genres on the ballot vying for some recognition, they could end up getting begrudgingly cut from some voters’ ballots.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Classic soul is getting thinner and thinner, so maybe they’ll go for the few-hit, but highly-respected soul outfit Harold Melvin And The Bluenotes, or just lead singer Teddy Pendergrass.  Lou Rawls is another possibility..  Or they may go back to New Orleans and go for the Neville Brothers..  Though still a couple years away, a Spinners induction could point to the possibility of Boyz II Men getting in eventually, as well.  And let’s add Billy Preston as well.

Their biggest threats: The combined appearances of Donna Summer and Rufus With Chaka Khan stand in their way, representing ‘70s R&B, and soul also has Laura Nyro on the ballot as well.

In the end:  The O’Jays may have missed in 2000, but that was against inductees Earth, Wind, And Fire, and the Moonglows.  The Spinners aren’t quite against those odds, and since the O’Jays, Joe Tex is the only non-blue-eyed soul nominee that hasn’t been inducted with due promptness, and I think it’ll stay that way.  Induction chances:  75%.

4. Freddie King

Blues musician from the early ‘60s.  First-time nominee, though the earliest recording artist on the ballot.

Why he might make it: Much like soul, the Hall loves the blues, recognizing it as one of the most, if not the single most, fundamental piece in the formation of rock ‘n’ roll music.  King was a true blues musician, and since they haven’t inducted a blues musician since Buddy Guy in 2005, we’re about due for another blues induction.  Also, he’s about the only candidate against whom there doesn’t appear to be any ballot division. 

Why he might not: Rather bluntly, he’s dead.  Those voters who are thinking about the ceremonies know that tribute performances aren’t as magical as seeing the genuine article perform themselves.  Also, very few R&B or pop chart hits, and only one hit album on the Top 200.  Not as much name recognition as the other nominees.

Whom he’d pave the way for: His induction could mean a nod for Albert King, or possibly a second look at the Paul Butterfield Blues Band.  It may even spark the momentum for Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble.

His biggest threats: On the surface none.  His own obscurity, perhaps, but there’s also the fact that he’s a guitar god, which can mean Guns N’ Roses, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and the Cure; and also R&B, which could mean the Spinners, Rufus With Chaka Khan, Donna Summer, Eric B. And Rakim, the Beastie Boys, and even War are threats.  Strangely, they’re all threats, but none of them are.

In the end: In horse racing terminology, something keeps telling me he’s the longshot you bet on when the money is divided between the favorites, and with as many divisions going on with this ballot, it makes his path clearer.  Induction chances:  66.7%.

5. Laura Nyro

A blue-eyed-soul singer/songwriter who has had her compositions recorded by many artists.  Third-time nominee, I seeded her #7 in 2010, and dead last (#15) in 2011.

Why she might make it: She’s been widely covered by many artists, and is well respected as a songwriter.  Also, good blue-eyed soul artists usually get in eventually.  There’s another interesting factor to note:  lately the Hall Of Fame has a trend of inducting industry secrets and criminally overlooked artists of the past.  Nyro fits both of those.  And last year’s inductees include a few contemporaries and admirers of her who might vote for her.  

Why she might not: She had very few, very minor hits.  Almost none of the artists who had the hit versions of her songs are in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame either.  Lastly, she’s better known as a songwriter, so there’s the claim that she’d be a better fit for the Non-Performer category.

Whom she’d pave the way for: There are only a few serious blue-eyed soul candidates left such as Mitch Ryder And The Detroit Wheels, and Daryl Hall And John Oates, so they could follow after her.  She might also open the door for artists that made hits out of her songs, like Three Dog Night, the Fifth Dimension, or Blood, Sweat, And Tears.  And maybe even another ignored singer/songwriter like Buffy Saint-Marie.

Her biggest threats: The Spinners are another kind of soul, and the other women-driven acts on the ballot—Donna Summer, Heart, Joan Jett And The Blackhearts, and Rufus with Chaka Khan—all may eat away at her chances.  And don’t rule out fellow artsy singer/songwriter Donovan either.

In the end: She might be one of those names that there’ll always be at least five other names more popular than, and as such, will always have a struggle getting in; nonetheless, they’ll want at least one female act inducted, and Laura is the female act with the least sharp divisions against her on the ballot, and I think that gives her the edge.  Induction chances:  51%

6. Donna Summer

One of the key figures of disco during the 70’s and early 80’s.  Fourth-time nominee.  I seeded her dead last (#9) in 2008, and #6 in both 2010 and 2011. 

Why she might get in: She’s royalty… the “Queen Of Disco.”  She’s got the longest list of hit singles than any of the artists on the ballot.  Very influential female singer, influencing the already-inducted Madonna, as well as other starlets of dance music.  There’s also an affirmative action side to consider, as there’s usually an effort to induct at least one racial minority, and one woman.  She fits both bills nicely and conveniently.

Why she might not: Don’t kid yourself, there’s a bias against disco, with the Bee Gees, ABBA, and Earth, Wind, And Fire representing the style—and even then some would claim ABBA and Earth, Wind, And Fire aren’t really all that disco either.  She’s missed out on tighter ballots before, too, ones that had fewer nominees.

Whom she’d pave the way for: The biggest and most obvious choice is Janet Jackson, Whitney Houston running a relatively close second

Her biggest threats: Rufus with Chaka Khan is the clearest and most present danger.  The Spinners’ style of soul and run of success in the ‘70s also stands to impede her chances.

In the end: She stands a real chance, but may fall short.  If there were more than five inductees a year, she’d have been in two years ago, I believe.  Things being what they are though, she’s a threat and while I don’t think she’ll make it, she’s my pick again for the upset special this year, but 1997 was the first and only year when any fourth-time nominee has been inducted (Buffalo Springfield, the Jackson Five, and the Rascals), and I think it’ll stay that way.  Induction chances:  49%

7. The Beastie Boys

Trio of white rappers that combined hip-hop with punk rock.  Third-time nominee, seeded #2 in 2008 and #4 in 2011.

Why they might make it: They introduced hip-hop to the suburban audience, which paved the way for the triumph of rap as the dominant style of music on the Billboard Hot 100.  Also, by blending punk rock with hip-hop, it’s pretty much impossible to say they aren’t rock and roll, even if you believe rap is not a part of rock and roll (it is).  On that note, the Nominating Committee keeps pushing for more rap artists.  They got one inducted in 2007, another in 2009, so we might be due for one this year.

Why they might not:  The other times they were nominated, there was a second hip-hop act on the ballot, and they cancelled each other out, both failing to get in.  There’s a second rap act on this year’s ballot too.  Additionally, after not making the cut first time out, one member was heard to say, “We really don’t care if we get in or not.”  While that isn’t the most scathing dismissal of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame (see Daryl Hall And John Oates, Toto, Steve Miller), it may just sway voters to cast their ballot for an act that would actually appreciate the honor just a bit more.

Whom they’d pave the way for: They could be the group that gets in so that other rap groups like Public Enemy, N.W.A., and the Sugarhill Gang can get in.

Their biggest threats: Eric B. And Rakim constitute the other rap act on this list, and they’re the favorite of somewhat vocal Nominating Committee member Toure.  Other hard rockers like Guns N’ Roses and the Red Hot Chili Peppers are threats, too.

In the end: They seem like good picks every time they’re nominated, but having lost out twice on them, I’m not throwing good predictions after bad ones.  If they make it, it’ll be the third and last time they threw a monkey wrench into my predictions, but I’m not holding out hope this time.  Induction chances: 45%

8. Heart

Rock band from the late ‘70s and early ‘80s led by sisters Ann and Nancy Wilson.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: They’ve got significant name recognition and a string of hit records that still get played on classic rock and retro-music stations.  They also fall very neatly into the “classic rock” category that public outcry claims gets significantly snubbed.

Why they might not:  Their later material consists strongly of power ballads, which doesn’t strongly favor them.  It’s hard to say: the value of power ballads is relatively untested waters, but all current indicators point toward liability status.  Also, the stadium-rocker kind of candidate has mixed success getting inducted.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  Pat Benatar is someone who might get consideration in the wake of their induction, but you could also go for stadium-rock acts with lighter later works like Foreigner, Styx, and Journey.

Their biggest threats: Joan Jett And The Blackhearts are the biggest threat, but Guns N’ Roses and the Red Hot Chili Peppers are also candidates to hurt their chances.

In the end: John Q. Public is going to go into overtime, raging against their missing out.  It took Black Sabbath eight tries, and Lynyrd Skynyrd seven.  Heart will need at least two.  Induction chances: 40%

9. The Small Faces / Faces

Joint nomination of the mod-rock and blues-rock band/s from England.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: The Small Faces have the solid respect of the British voters.  Members of the Clash and Led Zeppelin have lauded their status.  Faces are the version known best in the Yankee part of the equation, with solid blues-rock material.  Also, Rod Stewart and Ronnie Wood are two of only three people on the entire ballot who’d get in a second time if selected, and having a multiple inductee is usually a safe bet.  Plus, the Hall loves Rod.

Why they might not: Ever since the news of the joint nomination, the part of the blogosphere that pays attention to this kind of thing has erupted and is still clattering and chattering about whether or not this was good call.  Most notably, band members themselves, such as Ian McLagan and Kenney Jones, don’t seem to be in favor of this, saying that the Small Faces and Faces were two separate bands with two very different styles and kinds of appeal, and thus should be recognized differently.  Even NomCom members don’t necessarily see this as an act of identifying unity.  In an email, one member said they view the Small Faces and Faces as “two bands with a somehow continuous history.”  And this is just about the most glowing recommendation of the joint nomination out there.  (For the record, though, this NomCom member does support the joint nomination.)   All that aside, between all incarnations, they don’t have the number of hits (U.S. and U.K. combined) that other acts like the Spinners, Donna Summer, or even the Cure have in the various Billboard charts, and only a couple of those are still remembered and regarded as seminal.

Whom they’d pave the wave for: Getting the Small Faces some level of recognition, even in joint form with the Stewart-era band, might open the door for more acts that were MUCH bigger in the United Kingdom than in the United States, such as Cliff Richard And The Shadows, Status Quo, the Jam, and even Steve Marriott’s other major band, Humble Pie.  Getting Faces inducted might open the gate for more raucous blues-rock bands, and again, I’m hoping and pining for Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble.

Their biggest threats: Donovan, another British Invasion rocker, is the clear ballot-division against these guys, but honestly, the controversy regarding the joint nomination is also a major threat.  And let’s add the Cure, another British band that made more waves in England than America, but still had an impressive American showing as well.

In the end: The controversy regarding the joint nomination will either make or break their induction chances.  Really, I should have them ranked higher, but I feel that it will break their chances this year, and improve them in later years, if they do nominate them separately.  Induction chances:  35%

10. Donovan

British folk troubadour whose music included psychedelic tones.  Second-time nominee, seeded #1 last year.

Why he might make it: He’s a clever singer/songwriter with an impressive string of commercially successful hits, some of which are still known today.  Embracing both the lighter and darker sides of folk, he’s considered a pretty artsy artist overall.

Why he might not: Despite first charting in 1965, he’s considered something of a latecomer to the folk-rock game and the British Invasion scene.  As well as not really considered all that influential or innovative, he’s always been seen as middling: there, but seldom really rising to the top of the heap.  Also, from the very beginning, he has frequently been compared to Bob Dylan, which is always going to be a losing battle unless your name is Smokey Robinson.  Despite his efforts to break away from that, he keeps getting rated side-by-side with Dylan. 

Whom he’d pave the way for: He represents both the British Invasion and folk rock.  So he could open the door for other 60’s British acts not in yet, like the Moody Blues, Herman’s Hermits, Manfred Mann, and Procol Harum; as well as other folk stars, like Joan Baez, Judy Collins, the Kingston Trio, and Peter, Paul, And Mary.

His biggest threats:  The Small Faces / Faces jointly are the fellow ‘60s and ‘70s British Invasion act on the ballot.  Laura Nyro is another singer/songwriter with increasing traction each year.

In the end: After picking him as the surest bet on the ballot last year (though my rough draft only had him at #3, which is still Top Five), I’m gun-shy to call him surefire.  Especially with all the other big names of some long awaited acts present.  Induction chances:  33.3%

11. The Red Hot Chili Peppers

Funk-rock band still recording and touring today.  Second-time nominee, seeded #2 in 2010.

Why they might make it:  The only act on here that might be more influential to rock'n'roll music than the Cure. Maybe. Major force in the 90s, big in both the mainstream and underground circles. Also, with Flea giving the speech for Metallica in 2009, they’re in good graces with some of the powers-that-be.  Also, having a current album and tour going confirms their legendary status.

Why they might not:  Too soon? They didn't break through the mainstream scene until the '90s, so that may play in.  They missed out in 2010, amidst a flood of other popular names, so it’s hard to tell.

Whom they paved the way for:  Maybe the future inductions of bands like Blur.  They could even point to slow, deliberate delivery types of artists.  Ray LaMontagne when he’s eligible?  Who knows?

Their biggest threats: Guns N’ Roses are the biggest name on the ballot, and are their stiffest competition, with the Cure not too far behind.

In the end: I’m not sure why they didn’t get in in 2010, but whatever it was, I’m sure there’s more of it on this year’s ballot.  Not going for them.  Induction chances:  30%

12. War

Latin-funk band from the ‘70s.  Second-time nominee, seeded #7 in 2009.

Why they might make it: Cool funk. Memorable classics like "Low Rider," "The Cisco Kid," and "Why Can't We Be Friends" are all pleasers that make them likely candidates.  Also, Eric Burdon would be a multiple inductee, and the Hall loves to have multiple inductees.

Why they might not: Santana's already in. Can another Latin group make it? Also, innovation and influence are considered somewhat questionable. Plus, in comparison to other artists, and the politics of the Hall, they may just get lost in the shuffle.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  The only Latin act that might garner some attention following the induction of War would be Gloria Estefan/the Miami Sound Machine, who I believe become eligible next year.  Classic rock acts with that indescribable, yet identifiable intangible quality of coolness might benefit as well, and I’m thinking mainly Steppenwolf.

Their biggest threats: Rufus with Chaka Khan and the Spinners are probably their biggest threats.  The Cure also, since they also have that “cool” quality about them..

In the end:  I want to see them make it, but it may not happen. Like Donovan, they look to be lost in the shuffle.  Induction chances:  25%

13. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts

Harder-rock-but-not-quite-metal band from the ‘80s.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  When an artist has an anthemic rock and roll song,, the artist has a tendency to get recognized, and if they have a few hits aside of that, so much the better.

Why they might not:  They made very little waves besides their one major hit, “I Love Rock ‘N Roll”, and what they did have was largely covers (including said major hit).  The Hall Of Fame usually prefers to honor originality.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  As well as the obvious Pat Benatar, they might also clear the path for more classic rock acts with just a few, but well-remembered songs.  Maybe Thin Lizzy or Blue Oyster Cult?  And it’s way too soon, but Jett may quite be the precedent for a future induction of P!nk.  Or even Jett’s previous band, the Runaways.

Their biggest threats: The most obvious one is Heart, but don’t overlook Guns N’ Roses’ role either.

In the end:  People who were upset over Percy Sledge’s induction in 2005 will really go nuts if this band makes it.  I don’t think that’ll happen though.  Induction chances:  20%

14. Eric B. And Rakim

Hip-hop duo consisting of one turntable deejay and one rapper.  Newly eligible, and thus first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They’re widely recognized as a highly influential rap outfit, with at least two, up to four albums that are required listening for hip-hop aficionados.

Why they might not:  Rap is still not having an easy time getting represented in the Hall Of Fame.  Additionally, Eric B. And Rakim never really crossed over beyond the R&B scene, and even then, they were never really superstars at any given point.  Their biggest hit, in fact, was as parenthetically credited co-artists on Jody Watley’s hit “Friends.”

Whom they’d pave the way for:  Rakim’s vocal stylings are the more influential part of the duo, and so, they’d pave the way for future inductions of rap superstars like Jay-Z and Sean Combs (whatever title they induct him under).

Their biggest threats:  The Beastie Boys are the obvious threat, as fellow rappers, but voters might not want to vote for more than one newly eligible artist, either, which makes Guns N’ Roses a threat too.

In the end:  We have yet to see a rap act get in when there are two on the ballot.  And much as was the case with Afrika Bambaataa, if an artist doesn’t transcend their genre, they’ll have a tough time getting in.  Induction chances:  15%

15. Rufus with Chaka Khan

Joint nomination of the ‘70s-‘80s funk group and the solo disco career of its lead singer.

Why they might make it:  Chaka Khan is a major name disco figure and Rufus as a group had a decent number of funky hits with some crossover success.

Why they might not:  Once again, we have a joint nomination, but this one isn’t quite as bad for the simple fact that a good number of their hits were billed as “Rufus And Chaka Khan.”  Plus there’s just too much competition against them: Donna Summer was a bigger disco diva, and War was a bigger funk band.  Also, once again, disco just isn’t too popular with the voting bloc.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  R&B-funk acts like the GAP Band are waiting in the wings, maybe also the Average White Band.  If the joint nomination thing catches on, it may even lead to a nomination for “Shalamar with Jody Watley.”

Their biggest threats:  As noted above, Donna Summer and War are the major threats, and maybe also the Red Hot Chili Peppers.

In the end:  Those who think voting for Rufus will help get Chaka Khan inducted solo at a later date probably don’t realize that this is a joint induction, and this will include her solo efforts too.  One big joint induction.  I don’t think it’ll matter though.  I think they’re too far below the radar to reappear on anyone’s screens this year.  Induction chances:  10%

So there you have it.  My predictions.  In full disclosure, my track record since I started predicting, which was for the Class of 2007 is as follows..  2007: 5/5; 2008: 4/5; 2009: 3/5; 2010: 2/5; 2011: 2/5.  And hey, those that I’ve seeded last have gotten in before.  We’ll see how I do.  Here’s hoping I do pretty well.