Rock Hall Monitors
Where we keep an eye on the goings-on in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame Foundation: what is, what isn't, what could be, what should be, what oughtn't be, etc.
Wednesday, February 12, 2025
And then there were 14: the Ballot of 2025
Monday, January 20, 2025
Predicting the 2025 Ballot
Time to play some parlor games. Time to predict the ballot for the Class Of 2025 for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.
To be honest, I really debate posting this at all. I really don't see myself having any unique bent on how the ballot will shape up that hasn't already been shared by other bloggers including Tom Lane and Michelle Bourg, or by others on Facebook, or on the Rock In Retrospect episode drafting this class. Also, big shout out to both the Hall Watchers podcast and Michelle Bourg for their commentary on the shadier side of this past ceremony. I was mostly zeroed on trying to understand their rationale, but not actually concluding whether or not that point of view is justifiable or valid. I failed tremendously on that front, whereas Eric, Mary, and Michelle came through. I cared more about actually acknowledging the symbolism, and also saying how awful some of the performances sounded and maybe why. That's really on me.
Either way, this post feels like one of those cooking competition shows, where we're all trying to make the tastiest dishes, even though we're all being forced to use mostly the same ingredients. So here is my presentation of Turducken Flambe. And in my defense, the recipe said to first "clean the birds," and the oven I was using had a "clean" button on it. Shut up, that's why.
First, let's recognize those who played ball with the Hall. That absolute shill of a segment of the ceremony advertising the museum has to mean a return to the ballot for Cyndi Lauper. Not just the segment itself, but the very fact that it made it to the ABC broadcast of the ceremony. We can't show Tom Morello's speech for the MC5 or give any dignity to Suzanne DePasse's induction on ABC, but we have to have this commercial... sorry, promotion. If it's relatively in-house, it's a promotion. But given how much of DePasse's career was in television and especially music-based television specials, her segment being clipped out entirely feels somewhat ironic.
Also playing ball was Billy Idol, performing a very British version of "No More Tears" during the Ozzy Osbourne segment. And despite the lack of heavy hitters from the Golden Age of MTV in this past class, I think there'll be at least two. The tribute to A Tribe Called Quest offered at least two eligible and feasible possibilities. But unfortunately, I don't see Queen Latifah getting nominated for two reasons: one, the Hall still has a problem with recognizing induction-worthy women in many aspects of the rock and roll diaspora; two, the other possibility has at least been Previously Considered, and she hasn't. That other possibility is De La Soul, who is more similar to A Tribe Called Quest in style and approach. I'm predicting them to make the ballot, but a lot of depends on how well Eric B. & Rakim fared on this past ballot.
On the tails of A Tribe Called Quest though, we also may see Outkast finally get nominated, and since the NomComm has no problem putting two hip-hop acts on the ballot, I think we could see those two together. The fact that both members have been part of the past couple ceremonies, one way or another, doesn't hurt either, as Andre 3000 was in a video package this last time. Speaking of '90s acts that have been involved in video packages, I have to confess my befuddlement regarding the hold up in nominating No Doubt to the ballot. This one may be my Iron Maiden or Devo, where I keep predicting them every year until they finally make it. They might be a little lower in the order of consideration for various members of the committee, but I have to imagine that if they were actually submitted, there'd be some nodding along by others in the room as a distinct possibility of getting supported. And speaking of Iron Maiden and Devo, there's always a chance that one of those two could show up, even though the hobbyist community has widely agreed that neither one of them is getting in via the ballot.
Looking at the list of newly eligible artists, there are several that I think have a shot at getting inducted: P!nk, Nelly, Linkin Park, Joe Bonamassa, Gorillaz, and maybe Regina Spektor. Ryan Adams might have been feasible if he hadn't gotten canceled. But none of those are going to be high priority. Nelly might have been if Tribe could've gotten in on their first nomination. P!nk has played ball with the Hall, but I think she'll still have to wait. Joe Bonamassa is a blues legend already, but this isn't the NomComm or voting body that held the door wide open for Buddy Guy or Albert King. Of all those, the one with the best chance of getting on this year would be Gorillaz, but they might be a little too indie, and also too kitschy with their whole avatars shtick. So dialing back over some acts that recently became eligible, I'll opt to predict Coldplay to get their first nomination, and also for the White Stripes to return.
Combing back over the recently passed over nominees, I'll select a return for the likes of Warren Zevon and Oasis. The optics are better for the latter, and the former fills a singer-songwriter spot that is hit or miss for nominations. And if this class taught us anything, it's that the only way the lanes will be crowded for classic rock artists is if you have more of them than a person can vote for. I don't think there'll be eight of them, but Zevon already has one of those spots, and you can never rule out Thin Lizzy returning to the ballot, and I think that it really is a matter of time for Bad Company to be nominated.
But with all the names I've put in bold so far, I have almost no women. Cyndi, plus the Gwen-fronted band, and the Meg-backed duo. That's it. Even the Hall isn't that pitiful, at least not anymore. So, let's include The Pointer Sisters, because they're a logical successor to Kool And The Gang, and the demand is really getting to echo chamber levels at this point. With Sheryl Crow on the Nominating Committee now, there's a chance she could get Melissa Etheridge on the ballot, though I'm less sure of her chances of getting in. And even though the Hall is almost a year late to the party, that also tends to be par for the course for them, so I think there's every possibility that Tracy Chapman gets put on as well, even if the moment has passed. Lastly, with two women and LGBTQ+ representation, plus just so much fun to listen to, I'm gonna say Joe Kwaczala will go two for two with The B-52's getting nominated. And since I have yet to have picked anyone that hasn't already been predicted or drafted, I'll go all the way to eighteen names and go somewhat left field with Huey Lewis And The News. Huey's health decline is also well-known, they're part of that golden age of MTV, and are pretty much Disney approved; so, let's make them a left field pick, even if it is only shallow left field.
And with those eighteen names, I'm gonna put a bow on my predictions and present it to the critics, and wait to see what actually comes out in February. There are a lot of excellent names that there could have been, but this isn't like the Hall in 1986 or 1987 with nearly thirty-ish names. That's what I'll go with, and that's how silly I"ll look when I get maybe only four names correct. Until then, we wait.
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Eine kleine Fanfic 4: Obliteration
That's right, Chris and Josh, I named a season (year) of something "Obliteration," because it's a cool title!
Okay, so since that line crosses two sections of my personal interests, almost literally no one will get that joke. And that's fine; it's one for me. Anyway, it's a quick turnaround from revealing the previous list, and to be honest, I wasn't sure I would keep posting them. In the previous entry, I said there were a couple reasons, but I only gave one: that "Playlist Wars" was officially done. Another reason is that I didn't love the 2023 playlist, at least not as much as I loved the previous two. I think it's because I'm trying my hand more and more at this whole "curation" thing, where I try to make it seem as naturally flowing as possible, with as few hard pivots as possible. Unfortunately, that leads to halves being more themed, but the halves themselves feel like opposite sides of the coin rather than layers of a culinary masterpiece. I ended up doing that again with this year's list, because this class kind of felt like a two-sided balance as well. I think next year, I may just avoid the curation thing altogether and go with what feels like it shouldn't work but ends up working, like following Foo Fighters with Gil Scott-Heron.
Which brings us to this year, and even though this has been the case for the past few years, what's really noticeable is the use of the categories to induct artists that could have been Performer inductees. Even Alexis Korner was "Previously Considered" to be nominated, as part of his Blues Incorporated group. Aside from the two Motown people, all the inductees were recording artists that could have been Performer inductees, even Big Mama Thornton, considering John Lee Hooker and Ruth Brown are Performer inductees. So how do we pick this apart? Well, obviously, the eight who got in via the ballot must be included, per my rules, but this class had ten nominees, either from this ballot or past ones, that were inducted. Ten, the magic number. No hints of mystery to this one really. The artists present themselves naturally. So, let's competitively celebrate this class. Ding ding.
Track 01: "Crazy Train" by Ozzy Osbourne
So, yes, this was the "Honorable Mention" candidate from the 2021 list for Randy Rhoads, but on "Playlist Wars," from one episode to another, songs got reused a fair bit. So, a Metallica song could be on the Metallica episode as well as the episode dedicated to road trip playlists. No rule against reusing songs, so in that vein, I'm bringing this one back. There were a few songs that really could have kicked this one off, but I just couldn't resist getting things started with that iconic "All aboard! Hahahahahaha!" It's iconic, gets everyone's attention, and starts the party in spectacular fashion. So, here's to reusing songs now and maybe later, depending on who gets inducted in the future.
Track 02: "I Did It" by the Dave Matthews Band
First off, apologies to all the Firedancers or Daveheads, or whatever they call themselves. Apologies to the Warehouse. I understand this particular track is among the least favorite for the diehard fans. Supposedly, this is basically the Dave Matthews Band's song for people who don't like the Dave Matthews Band. Admittedly, that is me, and this is one of the more palatable ones for my taste. But that's not the reason I chose it. Of all the "traditional rock" acts in this class, this is the one whose overall sound blends in the least with the other said acts. But this track isn't a complete sore thumb. It's a little more rhythmic in places, but the overall style of guitars for "I Did It" is more similar to that of Foreigner and Ozzy, and I believe this flows out of "Crazy Train" relatively smoothly, as both give off a vibe of "Something ain't right, and that's what's right about it," whereas the former's protagonist is a little off mentally and the latter's protagonist is a little off relationally, possibly socially, maybe even legally. So, with that explanation, I hope the fanbase will graciously understand my choosing this song for the first follow-up slot, because I sure as shit wasn't using "Ants Marching"... I don't need that earworm stuck in my head for three and a half weeks again.
Track 04: "Hot Blooded" by Foreigner
Up until two days ago of my writing this, Foreigner was track five with "Feels Like The First Time" and what is now the fifth song was here. But I had a change of heart, feeling like the pivot wasn't necessary Apologies to Kristen, using the song that is the soundtrack to a catcall, but at least there's some lyrics about it needing to feel alright, and leaving the ball in her court by offering her a key. Okay, that's weak. I was looking for something, but even that's cringe. But the song is so darn catchy, and it follows the MC5 selection pretty well, both being about bold and bawdy men trying to attract women, which admittedly could be any number of classic rock songs. But with the heavy guitar sounds, it leads out of the MC5. And yet, the higher guitar line has a traveling smoothness to it that allows for a more melodic song to follow it up. A last-minute switch, I feel this one works well in this slot.
Track 05: "Baby (Somethin's Happening)" by Peter Frampton
To date, I don't believe I've used a live track; it's all been studio recordings. That trend continues here, but if there were to be an artist where that trend would be bucked, this would be that artist. But since Peter performed this when he was inducted, I felt a slight sense of amusement at finding a way to work this song into the playlist. That subtle sound that I described as "traveling" in the previous selection continues on this song, with the help of some piano. Not a lot else to say about this song. The fading at the end kind of wraps up the first half pretty well, the post-British Invasion connotation of rock driving this half.
Track 06: "Hollywood Swinging" by Kool And The Gang
But now we need to switch it up a bit. I wanted to save Kool And The Gang for Track 07, but if we're pivoting and making a clean break, this song announces that change in direction brilliantly with its fanfare right from the jump. It brings back the raucous party, but takes it in a smoother direction. One of the all-time classics by this band, there's not much to say that hasn't been said. But in addition to simply having a nasty, funky groove, for the purposes of this playlist, it's a hidden asset the way this song dissolves at the end as it does. It has that lingering effect that maybe we don't want the party to end, and we're hanging out to try to keep it going, kind of like a Midwestern goodbye. So slap your lap and say, "Welp," because it's gonna be a spell before we actually wrap things up here.
Track 07: "Electric Relaxation" by A Tribe Called Quest
Slipping in the seven slot is the inductee that was the most difficult to choose a song for and curate a spot. But I decided that the dissolving crowd feel at the end of the previous track works as a good segue to the main pulsating sample of this song. One of the songs that was a hit for the group, but wasn't a part of the tribute performance at the induction ceremony, this mellower track serves as a bridge for what's coming. Admittedly, this is a song that isn't going to get stuck in my head, but it helps set the mood or change the mood. One of the really underrated parts of this song is the way Phife Dawg adapts to the samples. The more hype rapper manages to find the pocket where his flow can still elevate the song.
Track 08: "Not Gon' Cry" by Mary J. Blige
Not as easy as a transition, but we now go from hip-hop to hip-hop-soul. And this one definitely focuses more on the soul aspect, but there's a solid beat behind that story of sadness that Mary sings about. It's time we got things slowed down and bring a little dramatic flair to it. This song is strangely catchy in a way that isn't so obvious the way a song like "Family Affair" is. But it's absolutely catchy, and eventually, even the stoniest grinch is swaying back and forth and sympathizing with the other woman that Mary's character is in this tune. People kind of forget about that part, but it doesn't diminish the humanity. In fact, Mary's singing enhances it. But it's also a stark reminder that once you've done something wrong, setting things back to right is almost certainly also going to involve someone getting hurt.
Track 09: "I'll Never Love This Way Again" by Dionne Warwick
Even though Dionne was technically an optional choice for this exercise, like the MC5, she was a Past Nominee, so I made that the theme of this playlist. And because Dionne was going to be an artist on this list, that almost guaranteed that there would be a slower song, a ballad, on the list. So that's another place where the Mary J. Blige song made good sense. This song is the big ballad number before we get to the finale, and it's a song about love that will never be supplanted, not fully. Whether it's the first love that is special because it's the first, or it's the one that lasted the longest, or was the most fiery, or maybe all of the above, this one stands out in the narrator's mind. Complete with a pearl of wisdom that love teaches about life, the lyrics are a lingering farewell that capture that moment when you've simultaneously let go and decided to never let go. As a big production ballad, this showcases Warwick's musical excellence, but maybe also depicts why some may have had a difficult time checking a box for her on the ballot. Nevertheless, as a piece of the playlist, this really sets the stage to bring the official close of the playlist on deck.
Track 10: "If I Could Turn Back Time" by Cher
On paper, without any knowledge or input of the fan vote, Cher is the headliner of this year's class, end of discussion. Piggybacking off the previous song, this takes the idea of never being able to love quite the same way again and amps it up by wishing to have the Time Stone and choose an alternate path. This song has closing energy on top of that. "I'll Never Love This Way Again" has show-stopping energy, but this song has show-ending energy, from an artist who needs no introduction. It's also an extremely well-known song, so it closes on a familiar note. As a point of personal commentary, this song came out when my age was still in single digits, and I grew up without MTV. So, this wasn't and doesn't represent any kind of awakening for me; I just think it's a pretty awesome song about wanting someone back that they let go, as a good way to officially close the playlist of inductees who had been nominated at some point or another.
Hidden bonus track: "Come Monday" by Jimmy Buffett
And there's the one that could have been a Performer, and would have done well on the ballot had they been nominated. The whole case with Jimmy Buffett is curious, to put it generously. As I said in my review of the past ceremony, based on the cases by the speeches, it almost would have made more sense to induct Jimmy Buffett as a Performer and Peter Frampton in Award For Musical Excellence. But given that the ten official tracks are all by inductees that were nominated at one point, and that Jimmy never was but could have or should have been nominated, this is where he is best qualified to serve. And I chose to use this song as the hidden bonus track for a couple reasons. First, it has a subdued feel to it, in stark contrast to the big vibes of "If I Could Turn Back Time." The other reason is that this song actually pairs quite well with the Cher song. Both songs are about missing someone. The Cher song is definitely about a breakup, while this song is a case where Buffett's writing leaves room for ambiguity, but it's almost certainly about a breakup, and not about missing someone on a business trip or serving a tour of duty. I've taken the approach that this song is about a breakup that was so sad and tough on the narrator, that they're processing it incorrectly by deluding themselves that the loved one will be back after the weekend. In fact, between this and the Cher song, the only real incongruity is who actually walked out the door. Maybe he did, and in her remorse, she left, but then he came back and waits for her to return. In any event, I felt this was a good afterthought and bonus track.
Honorable mention: "Get Off My Cloud" by Alexis Korner
The reason why Alexis Korner gets this make-believe honorable mention spot and not Big Mama Thornton or John Mayall is because Alexis Korner had been "Previously Considered," or at least Blues Incorporated had been. It's more thematically congruous to have Korner than either of them. I really have nothing glowing to say. When I listen to these fanfic playlists on YouTube, I don't include the honorable mentions. The bonus hidden tracks are included, but not these. But the honorable mention was a part of the Playlist Wars gestalt, so I tip my hat to them by throwing one on here. Given the love that both Brian and Gomez have for the Rolling Stones, and how much Brian especially loves blues-rock and cover songs, it's not outside the realm of possibility that this little nugget might have cropped on one of their lists. And with guest vocals from the improbably alive Keith Richards, it's even more fun of a reimagining for that reason.
And that wraps up this edition of "Playlist Wars: The Rock Hall Fanfic 'Episodes'." What are your thoughts? Would you have done this class as intentional as I did? What directions would you have taken it? Depending on what we get for the Class Of 2025, I may abandon such careful curation and be more sonically stochastic. It almost feels more fun when it is, and sometimes, you just come across a song you know has to be on there, and maybe even where on the list it has to go. That didn't quite happen this time, but I still think this is a coherent playlist. Until next time, enjoy the tunes.
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Eine Kleine Fanfic 3: Live Free And Fanfic
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Recapping the 2024 Ceremony
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Reaction to the 2024 announcement
So now we know. Now we know who the inductees for the Class Of 2024 are. Cool.
If it seems like I'm underwhelmed, it's a little bit that. I'm also still processing and digesting. And also pissed. But not at the Hall. But also at the Hall.
Personal anecdote, I tried to find an East Coast ABC affiliate that my cable provider carried on my package. And there was none. "American Idol" is running its episode for the Pacific time zone as I type this, and as of this sentence, they announced the class ten minutes ago on the West Coast. Maybe it's time to go all in on this "streaming" fad. I signed up for Fubo so I could watch the show, but I only got my subscription active and started ten minutes before the announcement. Why does that matter? Because I couldn't join in progress. They made me start at the beginning to the Seacrest first starting the game of who the safe ten were and who had to sing for their spot. So that cheesed me off. That's not the Hall's fault, except for maybe choosing to announce the results on "American Idol." So maybe that threw a wet towel on the flame of excitement.
But also, despite how I hyped up the acts in my Personal Tastes consideration, there wasn't a nominee (and isn't an inductee) who was in my personal music collection only because I was genuinely excited to collect their music. I own a Sade anthology, as well as a few Eric B. And Rakim albums, but only because I discovered them through following the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame. Nobody "organically" in my library, as we Pac Norwesters would say it. It's okay: most of my favorite acts are already in; most of the ones who aren't, I would concede have a middling case or just don't deserve it; and most of those who I think do deserve it are unlikely to ever be nominated because they're from the '50s, '60s, and early '70s. They'll end up in Musical Influence or Musical Excellence, if they're remembered at all.
I'd also like to personally reach out to fellow monitor Michelle Bourg and say, don't feel discouraged about it. For what it's worth, I still follow with some excitement because it's a chance to broaden my horizons and keep exposing myself to music I hadn't considered before, even if I am twenty-five years late to the party. I know that's not the entirety of your feeling of irrelevance, as you called it when the nominees first broke, that borderline apathy because there's no one you're passionate about, but I hope you'll stick around. It still manages to clear the bar for being a worthwhile hobby for me, even though I got obsolesced years ago. Admittedly, my reasons are probably a bit different and more desperate to have some sense of identity beyond my job, but I do believe you'll find reasons to remain. Besides, I really enjoy reading your entries. I respect your opinions, and you write a helluva lot better than I do.
As for the Class, I went six for eight on the predictions, as six of my top eight seeds got the nod. That's not bad. Of the two I whiffed on, one was in the mix for serious contention, and only Mary J. Blige had I counted out completely. But she was one of the most deserving on my Merits Ranks, and one of the seven that I'd been voting for on the fan ballot, so that's a salve for my cishet male WASP ego. And even though I'm mortified at the thought of having to revisit their catalog more painstakingly, I am happy for the fans of the Dave Matthews Band, who probably feel a great injustice has been corrected. The asshole cynic in me wants to conjecture that there are eight instead of the assumed seven because the people in the room where it happened looked at the tallies, and then at the fiasco of the 2020 situation and just said, "We do not want to go through that again. Just include them." If nothing else though, I will say that hopefully the 2020 ballot disaster, as well as the fan ballot from Fela Kuti's first nomination for 2021, makes it clear. To appropriate the TikTok trend from last year and earlier this year, this is "Rock Hall Math." Rock Hall Math is five votes from the members of Def Leppard equaling five votes, and over a million chime-ins from John Q. Public equaling one vote. Rock Hall Math. Rock Hall Math is also losing patience after two attempts and going side category, but I'll get there later. Those were the two I didn't predict making it, thus proving I am indeed not omniscient. Welp.
But hey, even if the six I did get were pretty close to shooting fish in a barrel, I still feel good about picking them. Cher and Kool And The Gang were in the top three for merits, personal taste, and seeds, with Kool And The Gang checking in at #2 all three times, and Cher at #1 two of the three. They are also both from the list I have mentioned many times that I created in 2004. The streak remains intact, but as time marches on and the Hall changes its methods, I still brace myself for when the streak snaps. Even if it's next year, hey, twenty years of having at least one name come off the list is pretty awesome (it almost happened in 2021, but then Billy Preston got a Musical Excellence nod). A Tribe Called Quest continues the nebulous correlation of three nominations in a row gets you in, even though that hasn't always held up either (also coming up later). Foreigner and Peter Frampton prove that classic rock from the '70s still gets red carpet treatment, except for the J. Geils Band. But hey, maybe after Bad Company, Styx, Boston, and Kansas, Little Steven can finally get his pet cause voted in. And if I'm going to get excited for any of the eight, it'll be Ozzy Osbourne. It's good to see another metal act get voted in, and even though this doesn't add another voter to the roll, it hopefully is at least encouraging to the metal community. If the poster child for the genre can get voted in on the first try, maybe all is not yet lost. As I said on the Future Rock Legends site, Ozzy was the litmus test for metal. If he couldn't even get voted in on the first try, then metal better just figure on snagging a category as the only chance, unless the NomComm is willing to labor over more than three nominations.
Speaking of snagging a category, let's move on. Suzanne De Passe is a wonderful serendipity in the Non-Performer category. A name I was previously unfamiliar with, I already find fascinating what the cursory research has revealed. She was involved with wardrobe for live performances, which admittedly doesn't really seem worth enshrining, but she is also credited with helping launch the careers of the Jackson 5, the Commodores, and the subsequent careers of Michael Jackson and Lionel Richie. In what capacity, I don't know, but I really can't recall off the top of my head when the last time a talent scout got inducted. That in itself is pretty exciting if that was one of the hats she wore. It seems like she was also involved in promotions, which I have mixed feelings about, but we do have Bill Graham and Frank Barsalona, so that discussion is moot. Also in the Motown family, getting an Award For Musical Excellence is Norman Whitfield, which is already causing heads to tilt about where Barrett Strong is. Maybe there's a Broadway show about Whitfield that a NomComm member is involved with, and they had to give Strong the Ragovoy treatment. Whatever, that's me being cynical again. That shouldn't, and doesn't, take away from the fact that Norman is an excellent call.
Sidestepping briefly to the Musical Influence category, recent tweets make it clear who was on this committee as Alexis Korner and John Mayall have been included in this Class. I'd heard of Mayall before, with his Bluesbreakers band. I hadn't heard of Korner by name, but I did remember seeing Blues Incorporated on the "Previously Considered" list on the Future Rock Legends site. It's actually fitting that they're inducted simultaneously, and I fully expect a single speech for both of them the way Carole King inducted the songwriters in 2010. Both gentlemen's bands were workshops and proving grounds for influential British musicians, and let's face it, inducting Mayall without the Bluesbreakers keeps us from giving Clapton his fourth damn induction. I'm all for double inductees, but Clapton does not need seven for every single project he had a slow hand in. Mayall is good enough. Korner will suffice, as Blues Incorporated will never be nominated either. It's probably more fitting to call them Musical Influence because they were professional couches that important musicians surfed on. Also receiving Musical Influence is Big Mama Thornton, and it's about damn time. Hopefully, this opens the door for Screamin' Jay Hawkins next year. Or the Ravens. Or whoever else arguably precedes what we conceptually call rock and roll now and was incredibly important to its development. Major win here.
And moving on to the Award For Musical Excellence. This is the most frustrating of the categories on all accounts. Norman Whitfield is frustrating for the exclusion of Barrett Strong, as mentioned earlier. Also frustrating is that the MC5 just couldn't get the votes for induction in their six nominations, including four consecutive years, refuting the three consecutive years hypothesis. Admittedly, many of us in the community thought they'd get Musical Influence because their sound was innovative to the point of being incipient to punk rock. It's just frustrating, but understandable, that it had to happen this way. Le sigh.
Slightly less understandable though is Dionne Warwick getting a category induction after only two failed nominations. Look, I've said some harsh things in various ways about Dionne Warwick, and while a couple of attempts to make my point were insensitively and clumsily phrased, there is still a part of me that still feels as I did when I said those things: that if there was any R&B artist whose records could have comfortably been played on "The Lawrence Welk Show" while the Geritol-drinking audience danced on the Champagne Ballroom floor, it's Dionne Warwick, especially the songs written by Bacharach and David. That said, there are some of her records that even I got to say, "Oh wow" to, and if Doja Cat can paint the town red to her song, then that proves that she does have some bearing on the youth culture in modern music. Maybe can Doja Cat can get a freak like Paul Anka in next year. No, but what is frustrating is hustling her in a category after only two nominations. At some point, it is ridiculous to keep nominating an act, and going to a category induction makes sense. But doing it after only two tries just shows a lack of patience by the committee members and a lack of respect for their own processes. I'm not saying we need to make them fail eight times, or ten, or eleven. But Dionne was on some pretty competitive ballots; throwing in the towel that quickly just seems ridiculous. Why even have a nomination process if you're just gonna stamp your feet and demand to have your way regardless of how the votes go?
Why have a nomination process at all, indeed. That seems to be the question with the induction of Jimmy Buffett being announced. As others have stated, this is an artist that probably could have been voted in. Why are they doing this? I have to imagine the Foundation met with Disney, and Disney said, "Okay, I see we got Foreigner, Frampton, and Ozzy here, but what about the audiences who think those acts are too risque? Who are you going to induct to draw in the White people whose favorite spice is mayonnaise?" And some intern on their phone, doom scrolling, just said, "Who's this Jimmy Buffett guy I keep hearing about? Heard he died or something. Sinead didn't get enough votes, so let's use this guy for a sympathy induction." And then the ghost of Michael Eisner's influence looked at John Sykes, pointed to the intern, and said, "When are you going to step down and let this born leader take over?!" This feels exploitative, like Sinead O'Connor's nomination, only nowhere near as gross. Buffett would likely have loved this for himself and for his fans, whereas Sinead would have refused to comment or show up. I'm going down a rabbit trail, though. Point is, they didn't even try with Jimmy. I had a hypothesis, but this induction (and the induction of the Dave Matthews Band) strongly refute the hypothesis, so maybe not. All I can really say is this just feels like the laziest way to go about having the heart-tugging induction that Sinead was supposed to be, and it's cringe (do kids still say that?). There's nothing wrong with Buffett being inducted per se; they just didn't even try.
And that's my early onset reaction to the class. There's some cool things happening here, some uncool but expected things, and once again, some things that make us monitors shake our head and ask if anyone tried unplugging the Foundation and plugging it back in. I'll be looking forward to the induction ceremony and curious to see how/if they are able to run a tight ship while still doing right by all of the inductees. Short answer: unlikely, but let's see if it will still look like they tried. Happy induction season.
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Sowing seeds hastily: 2024 Predictions
Since the announcements will be made Sunday, and this is my only day off until then, let's quickly seed the nominees. In this case, it simply means ranking them in order of likelihood to be inducted, in my humble opinion. My percentages are pulled completely out of thin air, they will not add up to what statistical analysts would say the numbers should all add up to, and are really more about showing how close the margins are between nominees in my mental wrestling. Hopefully, one day I'll be able to do the full write-ups again. It's a tough ballot to predict, and I easily see myself going two for seven as well as five for seven.
Between trading favors for those who've shown up in the past couple years, the undeniable icons, and other trends that we have seen recently seen in past years, there are really only about five that I feel comfortable saying aren't going to make it, and ten that are jockeying to be the top seven seeds. And hey, maybe one of those five will make a fool of me. I'll freely admit to not having the expertise to assess where people will draw lines. It's time to put it down for posterity.
1. Cher
Between the legendary status, and the resentment toward the Hall that is weirdly catnip for voters at times, I think she has the strongest chance. Only real liability is people assuming everyone else will vote for her, and voting elsewhere, thus causing her to turn up short. But I ultimately don't think that will come to pass.
Odds: 90%
2. Kool And The Gang
I still refuse to use the ampersand, but they appeal to nearly everybody for different reasons. And that's the beauty of it: regardless of the reason you vote for them, you're still voting for them. I think that will carry them over the top.
Odds: 80%
3. Foreigner
Classic rock still performs well on the ballot for any group not named the J. Geils Band, and with the campaign Mark Ronson and Mick Jones have going, it's become a bandwagon for voters to jump on. When Paul McCartney is joining the effort to get you in, that will almost certainly get you in. Even if not this time, by the second or third nomination.
Odds: 70%
4. Peter Frampton
Again, classic rock. The "while he's still with us" contingent may come out for him, as well, especially after showing up and playing with Sheryl Crow last year. That likely pushed him to the forefront of the hearts and minds of voters, particularly those who are thinking of the optics of the ceremony. He's almost gift-wrapped to be ceremony-perfect.
Odds: 65%
5. Lenny Kravitz
Speaking of Sheryl Crow, who's the nominee from the 1990s with a fun and popular, but not boundary-pushing, catalog who's got more connections than an AT&T switchboard during the 1970s? His discography is not quite as extensive as Sheryl Crow's, but that simply may not matter.
Odds: 60%
6. A Tribe Called Quest
The lucky three-in-a-row trend may come to a sudden halt with this group, but this is apparently the hill the Hall will die on when it comes to hip-hop. The main problem is if people assume Eric B. & Rakim will just be a Musical Excellence induction, and that will be all the requisite hip-hop representation needed. Still, until it's broken, rely on it.
Odds: 55%
7. Sinead O'Connor
Usually the sympathy vote is a very strong one to bank on. But between her middle-finger ethos to everything that was organizational, people knowing her more for controversy than her music, people only knowing one song of hers, and people appropriating her spirit for more than what she was actually standing against... her candidacy just feels like the center of gravity shifts in your hands and you just can't seem to handle it securely. I'm just not sure, but I'm willing to seed her here, mainly because her induction will be a quick one that'll let the Hall clear that part of the backlog with minimal screen time. This year's Kate Bush, if you will.
Odds: 50%
8. Ozzy Osbourne
He might miss out just because the voters can't be kind to heavy metal unless it's Metallica, but he has the iconic status and image that could carry him over and through. I'd like it, but I'm nervous.
Odds: 49%
9. Mariah Carey
Another one I'm worried might miss out, but would love to be wrong about. She's an icon with the hits, and she would sell tickets to Cleveland. But she's seemingly polarizing and underappreciated for the breadth of her talents. I think she will take one or two more nominations, but please let me be wrong.
Odds: 45%
10. The Dave Matthews Band
The last of the ten, this could be an induction of trading favors. After showing up for Willie Nelson last year and just being so oh-willikers charming, this could be his best chance. Hard call to make, but I still don't think enough voters have warmed up to the catalog at the end of the day.
Odds: 40%
11. Oasis
Some want the drama, some really don't. I think if they got the votes, it'd be a Dire Straits or Radiohead situation, where the members who show up are the ones who aren't related. But not this time.
Odds: 30%
12. Jane's Addiction
I ultimately think they're the Gen X, L.A.-based version of the New York Dolls. They were inventive, original, never reached their fullest potential... and you had to be there to get them, apparently. That's the rub, and in this case, the rub of the eraser.
Odds: 25%
13. Sade
Never completely rule them out, but this is a group that stands a strong chance of just getting lost in the shuffle this time.
Odds: 20%
14. Mary J. Blige
Between the other iconic women and the other hip-hop acts on the ballot, she'll probably also get lost in the shuffle.
Odds: 15%
15. Eric B. And Rakim
Despite having seven choices this year, I think many voters will still "vote strategically," and pick Tribe over them, or they'll just assume the Hall will induct them in Musical Excellence and save their votes for someone else. For getting voted in, not this time, but hopefully eventually.
Odds: 10%
And with that, we wrap up another prediction. Short and sweet. I haven't kept track to see whose predictions I line up with the most, but there you have it. How far was I off? We'll find out Sunday. Do I have any predictions for the other three categories? No. No I don't. I do think if they induct Eric B. And Rakim by fiat, it'll be in Musical Excellence rather than Musical Influence, but I'm not even banking on that to happen this time around. I fizzled out on my #EveryDayWithCarolKaye tweets, and I truly feel guilty and sad about that. I don't know if I could have made a difference if I kept it up, but the overall point is that you could put a different hit record on that she played on every day, and it would last for over a year... just the hits, even. I hope Carol Kaye is announced for induction. I also hope that for Estelle Axton. I'd also like to see backing vocalists start getting recognized too, most preferably the Jordanaires. Just no more lawyers or agents, please. And no critics either. See ya Sunday; it'll be the first time I intentionally tune in to "American Idol."