Monday, December 14, 2015

Official Inductee Prediction: 2016

When fellow monitors predict the nominees for the upcoming ballot for any given year, many often prefer to make "backup predictions" in an attempt to hedge their bets.  This particular practice is one I generally frown upon.  Go big or go home, right?  Well, except this is the one time when I do hedge my bets just a bit.  I should point out, however, that this did not start out as an attempt to hedge my bets.  It was merely an attempt to rank the inductees by the likelihood of induction, as I saw them.  It was only after the Rock Hall started to add an extra inductee, back in 2012, that the rankings became a way to account for whatever curve ball the Hall may throw at us.  With the whims of the Rock Hall being fickler than fate, the only thing that's really left to do, and let the seeds just go down the line as predictions for every inductee they do include this year.  Sound fair?  Too bad, that's kind of how it's done here.  But enough preamble; time to plant some seeds.

1. N.W.A.
Pioneer gangsta rap group.  Fourth time nominee, seeded #5 for 2013, #9 for 2014, and #3 for 2015.
Why they might make it:  On top of everything else they have in the way of merits, the biopic Straight Outta Compton was absolutely timely in getting their legacy further expounded and planted firmly in the minds of voters, or at least those who go to the movies. Beyond all that of course, they’re pioneers. Straight Outta Compton is a landmark rap album, and their subsequent albums, though few, were also hugely successful.  They were pioneers of gangsta rap, which almost completely obsolesced the older style hip-hop of the original hip-hop pioneers, as gangsta became synonymous with rap for a good portion of the ‘90s.  Also, as the launching point for the solo careers of Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy-E, and even MC Ren, and Yella, they could be considered rap’s first supergroup, or at the very least, the rap equivalent of the Yardbirds.
Why they might not:  Quick, ask someone who hates rap (or at least did in the ‘90s) why they hate(d) rap.  That laundry list that is their answer? Most of that traces clearly back to N.W.A.  Even if they didn’t pioneer some of those aspects themselves, they did combine it all into a blend that is the main exhibit for hatred of rap: self-gratifying, gratuitous and prolific profanity; incredibly subversive lyrics that went beyond mere wake-up calls of socially conscious folk and rock, eschewing civil disobedience, opting instead for and glorifying bloody violence; self-aggrandizement that made “cockiness” look like “self-confidence”; plus the usual stock answers of how rap isn’t even music since what they’re doing doesn’t constitute singing. And you don’t even have to be a stereotypical stuffy, White, conservative Christian to find that combination disturbing, or at the very least, inartistic.
Whom they’d pave the way for: The big ones are 2Pac and the Notorious B.I.G., the martyrs and symbols of rap-gang warfare, but also rappers like Ice-T and Snoop Doggy Dogg, plus the solo careers of most of the members of N.W.A. themselves.
Biggest threats: There’s no other rap group on the ballot this time, so no direct threats, but Janet Jackson, Chaka Khan, Chic and the Spinners could snare away votes, especially in the face of the glut of classic rock names this year that the general public has been clamoring for.
In the end:  The hype brought about from the movie this year could have been extinguished by the controversy of the tampering with the fan ballot on the Rock Hall's website, but the voters who are focused should be able to maintain the resolve and vote them in this year.  Odds of induction: 85%

2. Chicago
Rock outfit that infused horns into their sound.  First time nominee.  
Why they might make it: Over the past few years, the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame has gone to fairly strenuous lengths to nominate names that the general public has been clamoring for.  Whether it's been Rush, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, or acts that still haven't gotten in, like Deep Purple, there have been more names beloved by the public.  This year, Chicago is one of two names that are really huge household names, and Chicago has been eligible longer.  They're dominating the fan vote, and while that isn't a guarantee, it's interesting to take note of.
Why they might not: Critics do not like Chicago, and after living inductees, critics likely compose the biggest group of voters.  Also, there's a chance of some ballot division.  Also, the legacy of the band includes the continual descent that some would say started with "If You Leave Me Now," includes "Baby, What A Big Surprise," "Stay The Night," and "You're The Inspiration," plus songs from the current lineup that is probably bereft of any personnel who were there pre-1976.
Whom they'd pave the way for: While their sound was drastically different, Chicago has been compared in some ways to Electric Light Orchestra, so their induction could be good for finally getting Otis Wilbury finally enshrined.  Meanwhile, the downsizing of the NomCom probably won't ever be good news for earlier horn rock acts like Blood, Sweat, And Tears or the Buckinghams, but Chicago's induction can't be bad news for them either.
Biggest threats: The glut of classic rock acts is probably the biggest hindrance for the Windy City band, so Deep Purple, Steve Miller, the Cars, Cheap Trick, and Yes could all possibly steal votes from Chicago.
In the end: Chicago's been deemed a huge snub not just by the public, but from many industry people who aren't part of the voting bloc.  So, much to my chagrin, the Illuminati Conspiracy will probably come true.  Next year, the Cubs win the World Series.  Odds of induction: 80%

3. Janet Jackson
R&B and dance music diva.  First time nominee.
Why she might make it: Along with Chicago, she's the biggest name on the ballot.  There has also been an online campaign to get Janet Jackson inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  This has been their baby, and it looks like it may just happen.  With a lot of big hits and her new album getting some positive spin, this could all culminate in an induction.
Why she might not: Two things might hinder her chances.  First, there's been a lot of speculation that all she has is because of her name and her brother's fame.  Some just think she'd be nothing if she weren't Michael's sister.  Second, naysayers say a lot of her records, particularly the earlier ones, have a very generic sound that is nothing special, even derivative, and that her producers make all the magic of her music.  This is augmented by the fact on a lot of her records, her voice doesn't come through very strongly, lost in the production effect.
Whom she'd pave the way for: The big hope is that getting Janet in will kick down the doors for Whitney Houston, the newly eligible, but not nominated this year Mariah Carey, and in the future, TLC, Destiny's Child, and Beyonce. 
Biggest threats: Chaka Khan is the other major diva on the ballot, Chic could steal the dance music votes, too.  And don't count out the Spinners either.
In the end: The popular acts have really started to come pouring through.  Why have one headliner when you can have two?  Why have only Rush when you can have Rush AND Heart?  Or just KISS when you can have KISS AND Nirvana?  Odds of induction: 65%

4. Yes
Long-lasting progressive rock band with numerous personnel changes.  Second time nominee.  Seeded #6 for 2014
Why they might make it: Yes, so far, is the only prog act to not get in on their first nomination, so that's a bit of an anomaly.  Prog does well.  Additionally, the death of only consistent member Chris Squire makes them the "Death Fairy" favorite.
Why they might not:  Critics still compose a significant chunk of the voting bloc, and critics have never been big on prog.  Plus, despite an impressive showing as an albums band, their singles recognition factor is fairly low.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Prog has a fairly long queue that rockists want to see inducted: King Crimson, Jethro Tull, and Emerson, Lake, And Palmer to name but three.
Biggest threats: Again, this year's ballot is almost the classic rock lover's dream, so look for some division from Cheap Trick, the Cars, Chicago, Deep Purple, and Steve Miller.
In the end: In 2014, I said that Yes could be the first prog band to need a second nomination, and it appears I was right.  With the death of Chris Squire, among other factors, I don't think they'll need a third.  Odds of induction: 60%

5. The Cars
New-wave rock band.  First time nominee.
Why they might make it: There aren't too many bands that can be innovative, widely acclaimed by critics, and popular with the listening public.  The Cars pulled it off and made it look effortless.
Why they might not: New-wave and synth-rock are pretty minimally represented in the Hall, and it's not a widely loved style by the powers-that-be therein.
Whom they'd pave the way for: An induction for the Cars probably won't bode too well for acts whose popularity was not in America, so don't expect a door to open for Gary Numan or Tubeway Army, but the strong synth lines could help connect the dots towards Duran Duran somewhere down the line.
Biggest threats: Classic rock bands be a pack of hungry dogs fighting for votes.  Cheap Trick, Chicago, Deep Purple, Steve Miller, and Yes could all keep the Cars idling for awhile.
In the end: That one-two punch of both acclaim and commercial success is too alluring to not select.  They could sneak through.  Odds of induction: 55%

6. Chic
R&B/disco group fronted by a crackerjack production team.  This is their tenth appearance on the ballot, not seeded their first two times, seeded dead last (#9) in 2007, #7 in 2008, #5 in 2010, #10 in 2011, #12 in 2013, #2 in 2014, and #7 in 2015.
Why they might make it: Nile Rodgers has gone back to doing it the way other past inductees have done it: a new album and new tour with surviving members of Chic, showing that Chic can still rock the house.
Why they might not: They've failed nine times before.  If he were still alive, Albert Einstein would point to this and call it insanity.  Additionally, with more classic rock bands getting in, those bands' members vote for other classic rock acts, meaning Chic isn't gaining ground.  Additionally, there’s still the Chic Syndrome: solid instrumentation soured by laughable lyrics. Lastly, as has been the case in the past, disco isn’t popular with the voting bloc, or so it seems.
Whom they’d pave the way for: The love for Nile Rodgers won’t readily translate to love for disco.  The biggest likelihood is that the next two artists in the queue for those with most nominations but not in will probably be revisited, which means Joe Tex, and maybe even Chuck Willis.
Biggest threats: The Spinners as an R&B group have more popularity, but don't ignore the solo powerhouses of Janet Jackson and Chaka Khan.
In the end: The NomCom wants Nile in, and will get them in at some point.   And with ten nominations, I'm expecting the Foundation's head honchos to say, "They're in because we fucking say so!"  At least behind closed doors.  The announcement will say the ballot ran so close, they're inducting six.  Odds of induction: 50%

(6.5: The J.B.'s)
(Funk outfit that backed James Brown on many of his records)
(Why they might make it: With the E Street Band inducted, the Hall has shown they're willing to induct entire ensembles in the Award For Musical Excellence category, and backing James Brown regularly garners serious credibility.)
(Why they might not: The J.B.'s didn't play on the biggest and best known records of the Godfather--"I Got You (I Feel Good)," "Papa's Got A Brand New Bag," and "Cold Sweat," mainly--and as such didn't pioneer the funky sound that would be one of Brown's signatures.  They simply elevated the existing template.)
(Whom they'd pave the way for: This might pave the way for more ensemble acts, like the Jordanaires, the Wrecking Crew, and the Funk Brothers.)
(Biggest threats: Their own nomination as Performers could deflect their chances of being considered in this category.)
(In the end: Side door inductions are becoming more and more the Hall's modus operandi.  Regardless, it's a toss-up.  Odds of Award For Musical Excellence induction: 50%)

7. Los Lobos:
Latin-rock/roots music band.  First time nominee.
Why they might make it: The Hall's voting bloc is comprised of industry people, inside people.  Los Lobos' target audience is comprised of such people.  Critics adore the stuffing out of them, fellow musicians respect them, and anyone else not in either of those camps respects this group.
Why they might not: If these people take a step back, they'll realize that they're the only ones who've heard of Los Lobos, or know they're not a studio group thrown together for that La Bamba movie.
Whom they'd pave the way for: For roots music, Delaney And Bonnie have also been previously considered and could get a look from this.  For Latin rock, it could mean good news for Gloria Estefan And The Miami Sound Machine.
Biggest threats: Non-mainstream act the Smiths are the closest thing Los Lobos has to a direct threat.
In the end: Acts whose biggest liability is their own relative anonymity to John Q. Public generally require a few nominations to get in.  All the same, they were a tough cut, and they still have a strong chance.  So strong, they're the upset special this year.  Odds of induction: 49%

8. The Spinners
Superstar Philly-soul vocal group from Detroit, Michigan.  Third time nominee, seeded #3 in 2012 and #10 in 2015.
Why they might make it: The Hall has been strongly populist in the past couple years, and the Hall loves the '70's as well.  The Spinners are the group that has been around the longest.
Why they might not: Soul music, soul groups especially, have been very sporadic in their induction in the past decade.  It’s a disturbing trend that will hopefully be reversed soon, but for now, it’s bad news.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Classic soul is getting thinner and thinner, so maybe they’ll go for the few-hit, but highly-respected soul outfit Harold Melvin And The Bluenotes, or just lead singer Teddy Pendergrass. Lou Rawls is another possibility.  Or they may go back to New Orleans and go for the Neville Brothers..  Though still a couple years away, a Spinners induction could point to the possibility of Boyz II Men getting in eventually, as well.  And let’s add Billy Preston.
Biggest threats: Chic's tenth nomination will probably shut the door on the Spinners this year, but so could Janet Jackson and Chaka Khan as well.
In the end:  I'd like to think they could fluke through, but it's hard to think it could seriously happen.  Dare to dream, but think realistically.  Odds of induction: 45%

9. Cheap Trick
70's rock band.  First time nominee
Why they might make it: Counter-intuitively, this is a band that is highly respected for not taking itself too seriously.  Critics actually love them for this, and the people just plain love their fun rock songs.
Why they might not: Despite creating fun, memorable music, they didn't do much else that would otherwise gain them serious respect and consideration.  Not much innovation, and they were influential to the same degree that a lot of other similar bands were influential, meaning they don't stand out in that regard.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Other bands in the "classic rock" pantheon could come through the door behind Cheap Trick, such as Journey, Foreigner, Styx, and Boston.
Biggest threats: The Cars are probably the most direct of threats, but Chicago, Deep Purple, Steve Miller, and Yes could all leach votes away.
In the end: They're a band you'd love to have in, but it's only gonna happen when there's a conscious effort to vote for them, rather than choosing the most deserving.  Probably not this time.  Odds of induction: 40%

10. Nine Inch Nails
Industrial one-man group.  Second time nominee, seeded #9 last year.
Why he/they might make it: Nine Inch Nails is the act that really helped bring industrial music to a wider audience, which means a lot with the Hall.  In fact, the act made Rolling Stone magazine’s list of Immortals, which practically guarantees eventual induction. 
Why he/they might not:  Industrial may have been brought to the mainstream, but it has never been fully embraced, not to the degree that grunge, rap, and alternative have been.  Its intentional cacophony makes it a difficult style to want to honor and enshrine.  This may be a problem.
Whom he/they would pave the way for: I’m not very knowledgeable of industrial, so I have no clue.  Ministry?  Throbbing Gristle?  I don't think they really have any chance, but we'll see.
Biggest threats: Deep Purple is probably the hardest act after Nine Inch Nails, so they are the most direct competition.  N.W.A. and Janet Jackson could steal the modern acts' votes.
In the end: With all the classic rock on the ballot, the Induct Janet campaign, and the highest chances for N.W.A. yet, I'm just thinking Nine Inch Nails gets lost in the shuffle.  Odds of induction: 35%

11. Chaka Khan
R&B diva, former lead singer of Rufus.  First time nominee?  First and a half?  Rufus with Chaka Khan was seeded #15 for 2012.
Why she might make it: She's a big name draw with a slew of chart hits of her own, plus she's worked with a lot of important names in the rock community.
Why she might not: This is presumably about her solo career, and won't include her work with Rufus.  Her solo stuff includes a lot easier listening ballads, though not exclusively.
Whom she'd pave the way for:  There are a few other disco divas who might be worth taking a look at.  Grace Jones tops that list.
Biggest threats: Janet Jackson is the clearest present danger to Chaka's chances.  Chic is also an issue, as might also be the Spinners.
In the end: If it wasn't for Janet's momentum, Chaka might be a lock.  As it is, the ballot division is gonna make her 0 for 2-- 0 for 1.5?  Oh, whatever. Odds of induction: 33%

12. Deep Purple
Highly influential hard rock band.  Third time nominee, seeded #8 for 2013, #10 for 2014.
Why they might make it: This is a band that has been heavily demanded to get inducted, right up there with KISS and Rush, and nowhere more heavily than on Eddie Trunk’s “That Metal Show”, but even without Trunk, they’re a band that has been loudly touted as among the biggest omissions because of their huge range of influence.  Additionally, famous past naysayer and NomCom member Dave Marsh has done an about face on Deep Purple, which could help swing huge support.
Why they might not: The reason they’ve been omitted for so long is simply because the powers-that-be don’t hold them in very high esteem, and those people have sway with the voting bloc.  Whether it’s because they just don’t care for their style, or think of them as a one-trick pony for “Smoke On The Water”, getting them recognized this much has been a major struggle.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Other hard and classic rock acts like Motorhead, Thin Lizzy, and Ted Nugent could all benefit from Deep Purple finally getting in.
Biggest threats: Chicago, the Cars, Yes, Steve Miller, Cheap Trick, and also Nine Inch Nails all threaten this band this year.
In the end: At one point, I said, "Purple is the new Black," meaning it's going to be a long journey to the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame for Deep Purple, just as it was for Black Sabbath.  Odds of induction: 30%

13. Steve Miller
Blues rocker who fronted an eponymous band.  First time nominee.
Why he might make it: The Hall loves blues rockers, and most of the time, they don't take many nominations to get in.  He's played with a lot of the old guard, too.
Why he might not: Two reasons.  One, his songwriting's extremely hit or miss.  It's either really good or really bad, seldom in between.  Such inconsistency won't bode well.  Two, Miller's been nominated as a solo act, but he only had one solo album.  Since the nominees were announced, there's been a lot of tittering about how it should include the band in some capacity, and to include some past members of his outfit.
Whom he'd pave the way for: Everyone has been surprised that Johnny Winter got overlooked for nomination, so maybe an induction for Miller would help.  Also, blues greats like Junior Wells or Slim Harpo could get some looks.
Biggest threats: Last time here... Chicago's jazz rock could block the blues rock, and don't forget Yes, the Cars, Deep Purple, or Cheap Trick.
In the end: With everything else going on, the fact that it's just the man and not the band nominated could be the straw that breaks a lot of voters' backs.  Odds of induction: 25%

14. The Smiths
‘80s alternative rock group.  Second time nominee, seeded dead last (#15) last year.
Why they might make it: The Smiths (and lead singer Morissey) are a highly recognized and influential name in alternative music, ‘80s music, and ‘80s alternative music.  Additionally, as a soloist, Morrissey has a certain cache in a rather niche market of Southwestern U.S. Latino teens. 
Why they might not: ‘80s alternative just can’t catch a break.  The Cure couldn’t get in, the Replacements couldn’t get in; Sonic Youth can't get on the ballot yet.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Maybe Sonic Youth will show up next year, maybe it’ll be Pixies, or maybe they’ll retry the Cure or the Replacements.  Plus, Morrissey as a soloist has a shot in the future.
Biggest threats: Los Lobos also appeals to the alternative market and could divide things against the Smiths.
In the end: Until proven wrong, I’m just going to keep assuming ‘80s alternative has little to no chance of getting in.  I don’t know what would have to change to turn that around, but I’m not holding my breath this time either.  Odds of induction: 20%

15: The J.B.'s
Funk outfit famous for backing James Brown on many of his records.
Why they might make it: They made a lot of solid funk and have been sampled on a lot of rap records.
Why they might not: They're the most anonymous band on the ballot.  The most common comment about their nomination has been "I had to look them up to even know who they are!"  Not good.  Also, they're tied intricately to James Brown.  Even their very name is because of him, so distinguishing themselves as a separate entity worthy of induction on its own merits is gonna be a tough sell.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Other funk acts or acts that have been widely sampled could benefit.  Perhaps Chuck Brown And The Soul Searchers, or Charles Wright And The Watts 103rd Street Rhythm Band.
Biggest threats: Chic could also steal votes from those who want to see some funk inducted.  The Spinners are a fellow rhythmically driven act that could mess things up as well.
In the end: Everyone's expecting the J.B.'s to be inducted as Award For Musical Excellence, and thus few voters could be motivated to support them as a Performer.  Odds of induction: 10%

So that's how I'm seeding them.  Luckily, I've procrastinated so long that we'll only have a couple days to wait until we find out for certain.  Good luck with your predictions, and see you on the other side of the announcement.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Yeah, but do I like them? 2016 Edition

When the nominees on each year's ballot for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame are announced, there is always an instinctive reaction to each of the names.  Sometimes, it's surprise; others, a nodding of expectation.  Sometimes, delight; sometimes, disdain.  Those last two reactions are often driven by whether or not the person reacting to the news actually likes those acts.  Sometimes it's a matter of thinking an act is truly deserving or undeserving, but personal taste often drives the emotional reactions.  To some degree, it makes sense.  While we want the Hall to salute the true game changers, there's also a feeling of relief when an act that someone is passionate about on personal grounds is voted in.  At the Foundation itself, the powers-that-be describe "Unquestionable musical excellence" as the key determining factor for who even gets nominated.  But what does that mean?  Is it truly a matter of being innovative and influential?  When forced to be honest, those people would probably say no.  Nevertheless, this year's ballot has a lot of people chirping positively about how it's difficult to go wrong, no matter what.  And last year, many people felt, and Dave Marsh even expressed this sentiment, that the best possible class emerged from a relatively weak ballot.  So when you've got a ballot full of deserving names, it's fairly obvious that personal taste is going to play a factor.

Which is why I unabashedly rank the nominees by how much I personally like their music, after I rank them as objectively as I can manage.  Personal taste undoubtedly comes into play with actual voters, and going through the hassle of actually ranking them by personal favor allows one to be more openly aware of their bias in the process.  So, I believe it 's a good thing to do, to take the opportunity to list them by how much I like their music.  It gives context to how I discuss them as being fit for the Hall, and probably affects both how I seed them and how I rate them on merits, even though I try to remove personal bias from those two equations.  Once again, I'll average them out against the merits ranks to get an average, include the fiance's thoughts, and as a new feature this year, I'm going to include what song of theirs is my personal favorite, as well as the fiance's favorite jam.  So, here's how this year's ballot stacks up.

1. The Spinners
Every year they've made the ballot, I've been hesitant to predict them.  They consistently rank high on my personal tastes' scale, and this year they top the list, which is good because they keep slipping in the merits' list, this time at #10.  Philly soul is just one of the best subgenres in the whole rock and roll spectrum for me.  I don't dance, but I feel the boogie of their bass in my blood.
Favorite song: "One Of A Kind (Love Affair)"
Average of my two ranks: 5.5
Fiance's favorite song: "I'll Be Around"
Fiance's taste: 5
Average of her two ranks: 7

2. The Smiths
On paper, the Smiths are a band I just shouldn't like.  Not big on post-punk, don't care a lot for Pixies, Sonic Youth, or even the Cure that much.  Yet, there's something undeniably catchy in Johnny Marr's melodic guitar playing and Morrissey's vocals.  Mesmerizing, almost.  6th in merits.
Favorite song: "Sheila, Take A Bow"
Average of my two ranks: 4
Fiance's favorite song: "How Soon Is Now"
Fiance's taste: 15
Average of her two ranks: 10

3. Cheap Trick
Those who talk to me about music, especially on the Future Rock Legends site, know that I really respect acts who don no pretentious airs, and Cheap Trick fits that bill, which is good, because being 13th in merits, chances are they'll have to rely on actual voters sharing my opinion to get votes.
Favorite song: "Dream Police"
Average of my two ranks: 8
Fiance's favorite song: "The Flame"
Fiance's taste: 3
Average of her two ranks: 7.5

4. Chicago
I'll just say it right now: I don't actually hate the ballads as much as some others.  I do think there's some untapped potential in a couple of them. I think if an act like Boyz II Men covered "You're The Inspiration," and gave it their special Motownphilly touch, the resulting cover could have been an absolute soul classic.  At the top spot for merits, their esteem with me rides pretty high.
Favorite song: "Make Me Smile"
Average of my two ranks: 2.5
Fiance's favorite song: "You're The Inspiration"
Fiance's taste: 8
Average of her two ranks: 5.5

5. The Cars
Another group I really shouldn't like, on paper.  But they know how to be innovative and catchy at the same time, which is pretty awesome, when you think of it.  One notch higher in merits.
Favorite song: "Tonight She Comes"
Average of my two ranks: 4.5
Fiance's favorite song: "Drive"
Fiance's taste: 2
Average of her two ranks: 5

6. Steve Miller
Well, the Steve Miller Band, technically, and maybe they'll do justice to the group should this name make the grade for induction.  But between some bad lyrics, good grooves, and smooth feel, the high to middle of the pack is a personal taste rank that I bet others share with me.  9th for merits.
Favorite song: "Serenade"
Average of my two ranks: 7.5
Fiance's favorite song: "The Joker"
Fiance's taste: 4
Average of her two ranks: 4

7. Deep Purple
I'm not a metal fan, or a prog fan, and I don't like too many songs by Deep Purple, either.  Fortunately, I also don't hate too many songs from Deep Purple, either.  So by finishing runner-up in merits, this looks pretty promising for them.
Favorite song: "Highway Star"
Average of my two ranks: 4.5
Fiance's favorite song: "Smoke On The Water"
Fiance's taste: 9
Average of her two ranks: 7.5

8. The J.B.'s
Kind of a shocker, that I ranked them this high: I don't particularly like James Brown.  But listening to them while researching them, I was boogieing (my spellchecker didn't flag that, so I'm keeping it like that) in my chair with them.  A lot of the songs sound similar at this point, which really only means I need to spend more time listening to them.  Unfortunately, they scored low on the merits list.  Second last.
Favorite song: "Doing It To Death"
Average of my two ranks: 11
Fiance's favorite song: "I Got Ants In My Pants" (she only know James Brown songs)
Fiance's taste: 7
Average of her two ranks: 10.5

9. Janet Jackson
Going over her catalog over the years, I kind of get the naysayers' complaints: a lot of her early stuff does sound like cookie-cutter '80's R&B, like some of Bobby Brown's more upbeat stuff.  Fortunately, I have a high tolerance for that, and enjoy her later stuff too.  She rounded out the top five for merits.
Favorite song: "Black Cat"
Average of my two ranks: 7
Fiance's favorite song: "If"
Fiance's taste: 1
Average of her ranks: 1.5

10. Los Lobos
In a way, I really want to hate roots music, just because people have the audacity to call it that.  You want to listen to "roots" music of rock and roll, then start filling your head with doo-wop.  Nor am I that big on Tex-Mex music, and the days I've spent in processing plants, forced to listen to Latin American music, it's actually saying something that they're this high.  Especially when they were dead last in merits.
Favorite song: "Jenny's Got A Pony"
Average of my two ranks: 12.5
Fiance's favorite song: "La Bamba"
Fiance's taste: 6
Average of her two ranks: 10.5

11. Chaka Khan
Her solo stuff isn't as good as the Rufus stuff.  Her love songs are pretty good, but not as good as the funkier stuff.  Same rank as merits.
Favorite song: "I'm Every Woman"
Average of my two ranks: 11
Fiance's favorite song: "I'm Every Woman"
Fiance's taste: 12
Average of her two ranks: 11.5

12. Chic
I really harbor no "disco sucks" sentiment.  Maybe it's just ear fatigue, that I got sick of hearing them.  That's as good an explanation as any really.  No real hate, just no real love.  Also 12th for merits.
Favorite song: "I Want Your Love"
Average of my two ranks: 12
Fiance's favorite song: "Good Times"
Fiance's taste: 11
Average of her two ranks: 9

13. N.W.A.
I'm not a real big fan of gangsta rap, so N.W.A. isn't ranking really high, but there's some fun stuff in there as well.  3rd in merits.
Favorite song: "A Bitch Iz A Bitch"
Average of my two ranks: 8
Fiance's favorite song: "Fuck Tha Police"
Fiance's taste: 10
Average of her two ranks: 5.5

14. Nine Inch Nails
Industrial... not my thing.  Don't hate every song, but will change the station when it comes on, usually.  In the midst of things at 7 for merits.
Favorite song: "We're In This Together"
Average of my two ranks: 10.5
Fiance's favorite song: "Closer"
Fiance's taste: 13
Average of her two ranks: 13

15. Yes
8th in merits, though.
Favorite song: "Your Move (I've Seen All Good People)"
Average of my two ranks: 11.5
Fiance's favorite song: "Owner Of A Lonely Heart"
Fiance's taste: 14
Average of her two ranks: 12

So when we try balance out merits versus taste, we get some conflict between the two, and it seems like it ends up in a jumbled heap, but from this, we see how theoretically I should vote on the fan ballot.  The top five averages are:

1. Chicago
2. The Cars
3. The Smiths
4. Deep Purple
5. The Spinners

And for my fiance, her top five averages are:

1. Janet Jackson
2. Steve Miller
3. The Cars
4. Chicago
5. N.W.A.

So, the end result shows that while I'd like to think I'd be diverse in my voting, the only R&B I'd have would be the Spinners.  However, in the face of the corrupted fan ballot, my vote has actually been going to Janet Jackson, Chaka Khan, N.W.A., the Spinners, and.... the Smiths.  Because I just couldn't bring myself to vote for Chic, and the J.B.'s are probably gonna get the Award For Musical Excellence induction.  Sorry, Nile.  Anyway, the next installment, HOPEFULLY before the inductees are actually announced, my official pecking order, from which we can derive the official prediction.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

The Merits of the 2016 Nominees

More than a month has passed since the nominees were announced, and it is now time to evaluate them by their merits.  Between the corrupted ballot, and the interview with Dave Marsh, there's been a lot to keep Monitors busy, perhaps distracted from actually focusing on the nominees themselves.  Well, time to rank them by merits.  While no method is entirely objective when it comes to evaluating art, we do try to give some quantification, because ultimately, those who vote do not have the option of checking off every box.  Eliminations must be made, and there presumably must be reasons for those eliminations.  Some acts presumably must be deemed less than worthy, by whatever metric is used.  For Rock Hall Monitors, the metric is fourfold: Innovation, Influence, Impact, and Intangibles.  What new ground did they break, who followed their lead, how much and how hard did they resonate with the listening public, and what else is there that completes the picture?  So, here's a ranking of our nominees.  As an alternative viewpoint, I'm once again including my fiance's ranking of the nominees as well, though she isn't nearly as invested in it as I am.

And before anyone takes offense, please remember the bigger picture: the last act on this list of fifteen is most likely still among the top fifty or one hundred deserving acts for the Hall out of all the eligible acts out there.  So let's rank 'em.

Impact: Far and away the biggest success on the albums chart, long string of hits on the singles charts, too.  Still has an incarnation going to this day.
Influence: While they weren't heavily cited by some the bigger names in jazz fusion, their commercial success as a jazz rock outfit did help clear the way for jazz fusion acts to break through into the mainstream.
Innovation: They tinkered with the formula first hit upon by acts such as the Buckinghams and Blood, Sweat, And Tears, and managed to make it last into a long-term style.
Intangibles: They're an act you've heard of even if you only listen to current pop and dance or mainstream country.  Pretty much a household name.
The fiance's rank: Still in the top 5.... number 3.

Influence: Extremely influential.  One of the most influential groups in heavy metal and hard-rock bands.  I’ve also heard them referred to as being influential to prog, but I’m not sure how true that is.
Impact: Not hugely successful in terms of singles, but they were a part of the rock scene that focused on albums as single entities.  On the albums front, the chart entries are so-so at best, but five gold, three platinum, and one double platinum perhaps speaks to their standing the test of time where the chart numbers don’t seem to match.
Innovation: Can’t speak to it much, but there’s probably some of it in there.
Intangibles: The other projects that members of Deep Purple have been involved with speak to the further and more direct influence of the band.  Blackmore’s name is one of the most revered among rock guitarists, and the riff from “Smoke On The Water” is considered to be one of the rites of passage for guitar playing.
The fiancé’s rank: 6

3. N.W.A.
Influence: Gangsta rap is what it is because of these guys.  In fact much of the stereotype of what being a rapper means, or at least what it supposedly meant when Tupac and Biggie got shot, is based on the image projected by N.W.A.
Innovation: I’m loathe to put lyrical innovation on the same plateau with rhythmic and instrumental innovation, but this is one of the few times when it’s deserved.  Ice-T may be the O.G., but Ice Cube and company really put it on the map.
Impact: Minimal on the singles charts.  For albums, three platinum (one doubly so) studio albums (one that hit #1 on the Billboard 200), and one gold greatest hits compilation.  But that’s also about all they had.  No cache of lesser known/celebrated material behind that.
Intangibles: With notable and big solo careers of some of their members, they might be called the first rap supergroup.
The fiancé’s rank: 1

Innovation: One of the front runners of new wave music, they helped define an entire movement in the music world.
Influence: Again, one of the front runners of new wave.  They influenced a lot of the new wave and even synth-pop and synth-rock acts of the '80's.
Impact: A very commercially successful group with a string of Top 40 hits.
Intangibles: This was a band that seemed to have something for everyone, including critics, who also had a lot of good things to say about them.
The fiance's rank: 8

Impact: The biggest singles artists on the ballot, and one of the biggest of the whole rock era.  Still going strong with a new album released this year.
Influence: One of the most influential female singers of the past 30 years, paving the way for a lot of starlets of R&B and dance music.
Innovation: Not her strongest suit, admittedly.
Intangibles: It really does say something to her talent, ethic, and overall credit that in a family of nine kids, all of whom vied for success as solo artists, she's only one of two that can rightfully claim the label of "superstar."  Additionally, had a bigger hand in the creation of her music than she is often remembered for.
The fiance's rank: A solid 2

Influence: One of the giants of ‘80’s alternative, along with the Cure and the Pixies.  Influenced a lot of independent-label acts in their wake.
Impact: Recording very few albums, they charted few albums, and no single hits, but plenty of name recognition, for themselves and for lead singer Morrissey.
Innovation: Along with the Replacements and the Cure, they really helped define the sound of post-punk.
Intangibles: The name power of Morrissey alone brings a certain seriousness to the Smiths overall.
The fiance's rank: 5

Innovation: Industrial is a bit of the child between Kraftwerk-style electronica and heavy metal.  But it’s still pretty innovative to bring the two together, and Nine Inch Nails did exactly that.
Influence: As one of the earlier examples of industrial, Nine Inch Nails is a name widely cited in modern industrial, and it wouldn’t be surprising if electronica and metal acts cite this name as well.
Impact: Nine Inch Nails’ crossover success was originally limited, but has over time increased, enjoying the biggest hits in just the past decade or so.
Intangibles: The Rock Hall seems to really love and merit those bands who do it all: write, arrange, play, produce, promote, distribute, and so forth their own music.  Though employing the skills of other musicians on a frequent basis, Nine Inch Nails is the tour-de-force band boiled down even further: one man, Trent Reznor.  One man who can pretty much do it all.
The fiance's rank: Way down yonder at number 13

8. YES
Influence: One of the most respected names in the entire sub-genre of prog-rock.  A lot of prog bands took cues from this group.
Innovation: Among the first to really successfully and continuously infuse classical elements into the world of rock music.
Impact: One of the very few prog bands to also have a #1 hit on the Hot 100.  They’re much bigger in the album charts than the singles, but even their singles chart history is pretty respectable, especially compared to many other names on this ballot.
Intangibles: Semi-noteworthy solo careers of some of its members give them some additional credibility as it allows for closer inspection of the individual pieces of their machine, and the sense of synergy as a whole. 
The fiance’s rank: 10

Impact: The band had several hit albums and singles, and a few classics that did not chart.
Influence: They were an important blues-rock outfit during the '70's, and as such, had some influence on the blues-rock acts that followed.
Innovation: Not a whole lot, but they did help refine the way blues-rock was interpreted.
Intangibles: Raised in Texas, teeth cut in Chicago, the man is steeped in blues and has worked and known some of the big names.
The fiance's rank:

Impact: A string of minor hits throughout the '60's, then major hits for most of the '70's, and even sneaking into the '80's a bit.
Influence: The genre of soul greatly shifted as the Spinners were at the top of their heyday, nonetheless, there is some influence upon the likes of Hall And Oates, as well as subsequent soul musicians
Innovation: Despite not really inventing Philly soul, their style was more rhythmically driven than that of their contemporaries (perhaps due to their usage of doo-wop style background vocals), making it something unique they brought to the table. 
Intangibles: They’re a solid representation of Philly soul, which there isn’t much of in the Hall right now.  They’re also a quasi-representation of Motown, having put in a brief stint at that legendary label. 
The fiance's rank: 9

Influence: After Donna Summer, possibly the biggest diva to emerge from the '70's, and influenced a lot of women who followed.
Impact: A modest amount of commercial success as a solo artist, including very well known songs: "I Feel For You," and "I'm Every Woman."
Innovation: Not a whole lot, but her work with a wide variety of artists has helped bring about some different fused sounds.
Intangibles: Has rubbed elbows with some big names in the music industry, plus her legacy as the front lady of Rufus bolsters her credibility a little too.
The fiancé's rank: Once again, a match at 11.

12. CHIC
Impact: The impact of “Good Times” upon hip-hop is huge.  Also, respectable runs of hits in the disco, R&B, and pop charts, plus a good run of charted albums.  Nile Rodgers’ producer credit of the Grammy winning Daft Punk jam “Get Lucky” is also a factor here.
Influence: Again, on the world of hip-hop, having a heavily sampled record does say a lot.  Plus, the influence on funk and dance music is sizeable.
Innovation: Not entirely devoid here, as the technique of Nile Rodgers and Bernard Edwards have proven different and difficult to duplicate.
Intangibles: By now, Chic may just be wearing down resistance of the voters.  A tenth nomination?  The Nominating Committee must be seeing something that not everyone is.
The fiance's rank: Up at 7

Impact: A handful of hits, but very beloved ones.
Influence: A lot of guitar rock bands from the 80's onward have cited Cheap Trick among their influences.
Innovation: They didn't reinvent the wheel, but they made it roll.
Intangibles: Their lack of pretentiousness, inability to take themselves too seriously, makes them something different.
The fiance's rank: 12

14. THE J.B.'S
Influence: They are a widely sampled band.  Their brand of funk influenced their contemporaries and many funk and R&B acts to come.
Innovation: Not the first funk act, but they did put it together in an awesome way.
Impact: A few hits under their own name on the Pop charts, a few more on the R&B charts.
Intangibles: And they had a few more as the backing band for James Brown.  A lot of weight behind that name.
The fiance's rank: Agreement at 14

Innovation: Not the first in roots music, or in Tex-Mex, or Latin rock, but they were a novel fusion of various styles.
Influence: They've stirred a lot of ripples in the non-mainstream scenes, and have had worked with a lot of the old guard, helping them create new sounds.
Impact: Very minimal singles sales.  Modest album sales.
Intangibles: The critics' darling of the entire ballot.  They are an inside band.
The fiance's rank: Also at 15

So that's how I view their merits.  It may not be perfect, but it tries to be as close to it as it can.  Soon, we'll go subjective and observe general listenable value of each inductee on the two of us.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Rock the vote! Don't tip the vote over!

When the Rock Hall Revisited project started on the Future Rock Legends site, I began a push for Bernie Lowe to be inducted as a Non-Performer as soon as possible.  For those who haven't heard me from that particular soapbox, Bernie Lowe was the primary founder (along with co-founder Kal Mann) of the Cameo and Parkway record labels, the sister labels that made stars out of Chubby Checker, Bobby Rydell, Dee Dee Sharp, the Orlons, the Dovells, and the Tymes.  They were also early (American) homes for the Kinks, Bob Seger, and where key members of Grand Funk Railroad first started out as members of Terry Knight And The Pack; additionally, their national distribution muscle helped propel R&B acts such as the Five Stairsteps and the Delfonics.  Cameo and Parkway records were really among the first record labels that embraced rock and roll as the medium for youth culture, supplying a lot of the dance records for American Bandstand during the early 1960's, perhaps to the point of saturation and even self-parody (Don Covay's "Popeye Waddle" e.g.).  To date, Bernie Lowe has not been recognized by the actual Hall for his contribution to the evolution and perpetuation of rock and roll. So, when it began, I was adamant about getting him recognized by our unofficial revisited project.  On our fifth class, the Revisited Class Of 1990, Bernie Lowe managed to get recognized as one of our two Non-Performer inductees, and I was thrilled.  That thrill was short-lived, however, as it was soon revealed that one of the members of the project had been posting multiple votes under multiple user names and had indeed been largely responsible for the push that got Bernie Lowe through.  I was mostly upset because I was worried that in a truly fair vote, Bernie Lowe, and the legacy of the Cameo-Parkway family upon rock and roll would be ultimately dismissed, even among fellow hobbyists who actually gave consideration to my opinion and how I highlighted the importance of Lowe.  When we adopted the blind ballot twist on the procedures that involved emailing our votes anonymously, Bernie Lowe was part of the "Class Of 1995," so at least there's a happy ending for me there, but it still stung for awhile to consider that what I wanted couldn't happen honestly.

Well, if you've paid any attention to what's been happening the past two weeks since the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame announced the latest round of nominees, you know exactly where this is heading: the alleged tampering of the fan ballot on the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame's website that has given a runaway top five of Chicago, the Cars, Yes, Steve Miller, and Deep Purple.  In sixth place is Janet Jackson, roughly sixteen million votes behind the current fifth place holder, Deep Purple.  So disparate is this gap that people have cried foul, claiming that the ballot was hacked by "bots" that voted nonstop, around the clock until the IT people for the Rock Hall's website temporarily took down the ballot, and implemented a fifteen-vote-per-day limit per IP address.

But the damage has been done, and now people want the ballot thrown out and the whole fan ballot be started anew, blank slate.  The Hall has not done this as of yet, and is unlikely to do so.  For starters, it's not exactly like electoral honesty is the Hall Of Fame's most prominent feature.  From the noted lack of transparency (third-party affiliation, accountability, whatever you wish to call it); to the side door inductions of Performer nominees who don't get enough votes--oh and let's not forget the 2006 controversy involving Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five and the Dave Clark Five--; if the Hall threw out the fan ballot as it is now on grounds of corruption, the "smack" of hypocrisy would be more of an "assault and battery."  But let's not ignore a general reality of businesses: they want their sites to get as many hits as possible.  To admit that traffic to their site was artificially inflated by bots is likely pretty embarrassing.  Every hit helps, but this concentrated flurry for an express purpose must cause some degree of embarrassment.  But I'm no authority, as this blog is the closest thing I've got to having a website.  (If the administrator of Future Rock Legends would care to weigh in on this in the comments section below, I'd be most grateful for the input.)  What must more certainly be embarrassing for a company, though, is for their process to essentially be hacked, period, nevermind the purpose of skewing public opinion to say what one person wants it to say.  Now, obviously not actually hacked, but for their IT integrity to be so lax that this possibility was allowed to occur would certainly egg the Foundation's collective face, especially given how they vaunted the number of votes at the beginning of this year's process.  So the Hall would likely rather pretend that every hit and vote was genuine, and not automated, and that no tampering occurred.  Additionally, as often goes with our ephemeral cyber-culture, the ballot is probably old news to most people who even cared in the first place, and they're probably done voting and have moved on to the newest thing that has captured their fascination.  So, if the Hall started all over, they probably couldn't get those numbers back anywhere close to where they were.

That's not even taking into consideration the fans that would be steamed at any resetting, and by fans, I mean "Chicago fans," because I'm not hearing one peep of denial of fraud from people who think Deep Purple is the biggest snub, or those who are overjoyed to see the Cars finally nominated, or those sighing breaths of relief that Yes has returned after being absent from last year's ballot.  Nope, it's the Chicago fans who are doing all the talking, primarily because Chicago is the clear front runner right now, and they have not been the least bit shy of claiming legitimacy to each and every single one of those votes, now totaling over thirty-seven million.  Well, I'm now going to take a few moments to address the Chicago fans and say, "You're wrong."  And before you take to the comments to berate me, please read everything after this sentence, because at the end, there is good news for you devoted fans of this band.

But first, let's address what we have in front of us.  The main problem with the Chicago fans who are in denial is their myopia has created a false sense of victimization.  The most important thing that must be said to those people is this: no one is claiming fraud simply because Chicago took over the lead.  For crying out loud, last year's fan ballot showed Stevie Ray Vaughn And Double Trouble surpassing Nine Inch Nails late in the game.  No one cried foul because the lead changed hands.  It requires the ability to see beyond merely who's in first place to truly understand what's going on.

Now, I'm going say that I live on the West Coast, and observe Pacific Time.  When I went to bed on October 8th, the first day of voting, the leader was Janet Jackson, with more than one million votes more than second place Chicago.  This was around 10 or 11 at night.  Having a sub-par night of sleep, I was up by around 6 or 7 the next morning, October 9th.  I went to the site to cast more votes for my acts of preference.  Literally overnight, Janet Jackson dropped from first to sixth.  That means not only had Chicago caught up and passed her by, so had four others.  I even joked about it on Twitter, saying Eddie Trunk had finally awoken his minions and got them to go out and do his bidding.  Now, being on the West Coast, and part of the last time zone of the contiguous 48 to arrive at dawn, I originally figured that maybe the Eastern and Central time zones were finally getting more active, but the disparity between fifth and sixth place at that time already seemed fishy, and it wasn't because of my proximity to the ocean.

And the gap only grew from there.  In leaps and bounds.  That day, and over the next several days.  Until we got where we are now.  I spent much of my voting time noticing how those top five acts' votes all went up in comparison to others.  Acts like the Spinners, Janet Jackson, N.W.A. and Cheap Trick all saw their votes increase in folds of fifty to one hundred, in between each click of mine to vote, which was somewhere between three to seven seconds.  Chicago, the Cars, Steve Miller, Deep Purple, and Yes all saw theirs go up over a thousand every three to seven seconds.

Now, is it possible for those acts to have that many fans devotedly casting ballots until they all get carpal tunnel syndrome?  Theoretically, and from the number of Chicago fans who have come forth to swear to the veracity of their voting, it might even be plausible, if not for certain other factors.  Going back to what I said earlier, Janet Jackson went from first to sixth, literally overnight.  My friends and even my fiance like to razz me for being a mild grammarian, so when I emphatically say, "literally," I literally mean "literally."  This means that five acts all overtook Janet Jackson in the course of seven hours, nine tops, during the time when the moon rules the sky over the United States for most of that time.  Most people are presumably sleeping, working graveyard shifts, or gaming.  That means in all likelihood, the vast majority of those votes in that time window would either have to come from the Eastern hemisphere (or relatively close to it), or from automated bots.  Now, one particularly tenacious fan has argued that Chicago has millions of fans from all over the world and would gladly jump on board to vote for them in the fan ballot.  Well, for a statement like that to be completely disproved would require more pollsters working more man-hours than could happen before the voting deadline.  However, we really don't need to do all that.  Extrapolating from the comments seen on the Future Rock Legends site from European and Canadian contributors, it would appear that a large number of non-Americans think of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame as an American institution, and nothing more, and not just because it was founded, has a museum, and is largely run in the United States.  Just ask about any British person who they'd consider no-brainers, and it'd be shocking if Cliff Richard And The Shadows or Status Quo isn't mentioned.  But neither of them are in the Hall.  Canadians, in true stereotypical fashion, have suggested a minimum of one Canadian candidate per ballot, but that request goes unheeded.  When the Dave Clark Five were inducted in 2008, Dave Clark himself called it an honor to be inducted into the "American Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame."  The point is, the Rock Hall is largely considered an American institution, and there are a large number of people in Europe who simply won't partake in the fan vote because they consider the Hall to be an American institution, and thus don't care.

But even if they did care enough, would Chicago overwhelmingly receive the international votes (especially with an Ameri-centric name like "Chicago")?  Possibly, but stereotypes exist for a reason, and in Europe, that means EDM.  It's hard to imagine that given the ballot selection, European music lovers wouldn't vote for music that had more bearing or influence on the music that is ubiquitous to their part of the world.  I can't reasonably imagine a scenario where artists relevant to dance music such as Chic, Chaka Khan, and especially Janet Jackson don't benefit from the European vote.  That's not even getting into Africa, where Afrobeat music has a lot of similarities to the kind of funk that the J.B.s gave us; or Asia, Australia, New Zealand, or even Latin America, where it'd almost certainly cause an upswing for Los Lobos.  Even if the rest of the world were behind Chicago, it'd be ludicrous to state that Janet Jackson wouldn't also benefit from an international voting cattle drive.

Which brings us to the next, and perhaps most important part of the argument, and the biggest problem with the argument presented by Chicago supporters: this is not about JUST Chicago!  If it were just Chicago, no one would be saying anything, I promise you.  If it were even just a matter of Chicago versus Janet Jackson, it would be called an interesting fight to watch.  But it's not.  This gets lost in the melee for two reasons: one, Chicago is now in the lead, so it's assumed they'd suffer the worst if there were any credence to the accusations; two, Chicago fans in their own defense have continued to erect that strawman to the point of giving themselves a persecution complex.  But this is not about just Chicago or even Chicago and Janet Jackson.  You MUST include the other four benefactors of the automated attack for the discussion to make any sense.  It's perfectly reasonable to believe that Chicago would overcome the million vote deficit to take the lead.  But if Janet Jackson was ahead of Chicago by over a million votes that first night, how many more was Janet ahead of the likes of Deep Purple, Steve Miller, and Yes that night?  Is it really reasonable to think that ALL five would overcome their deficits of two million or more in that one night?  Have you really considered what that would take?  Especially when the votes for other acts like the Smiths, N.W.A., and Nine Inch Nails have remained at steadily low levels?  That means that an overwhelming majority of the votes for Chicago ALSO had to be cast for the Cars, Steve Miller, Deep Purple, and Yes.  Now let me ask this of the staunch Chicago supporters: every time you have cast your ballot, has it been always been, every time, for Chicago, Deep Purple, Yes, Steve Miller, and the Cars?  I don't doubt that there have been some voters who have voted thus each and every time they click to vote, but every Chicago fan?

In addition to the statistical near-impossibility of that happening, there's another solid reason that this is extremely unlikely: in two words, Cheap Trick.  When the ballot was first announced, fellow Monitors commented that this was a classic rock enthusiast's wet dream, with six acts that all get airplay on classic rock radio.  Those are the five poll leaders and Cheap Trick.  But Cheap Trick has not benefit from this, as they are still in seventh place, behind Janet Jackson.  Is it really reasonable to argue that no fan of Chicago also voted for Cheap Trick?  Wouldn't Cheap Trick be a more reasonable vote recipient than the Cars, whose new wave keyboard sound doesn't fall in line with "classic rock" as neatly as Cheap Trick's?  Now, in the past, every fan ballot has skewed heavily rockist, meaning the acts that are most played on classic rock radio, or likely to be played on classic rock radio in ten to twenty years, should the format and radio industry survive that long.  In fact, that's why some of us initially took no notice when Janet dropped from first to sixth, but the truth is, it just doesn't add up.  Is it really believable that the fans who have voted would be content to let Cheap Trick lag roughly seven million votes behind Janet Jackson?  Or to let the Smiths and Nine Inch Nails languish in thirteenth and fourteenth place?  Are you telling me that no fan of Chicago is also a fan of Janet Jackson?  Or the Spinners?  While I'm certain that Chicago fans jumped on the bandwagon after those five jumped well out ahead, deviating only to put Chicago back on top after the Cars temporarily took the lead, it simply could not have happened organically.  Not when five acts jump up over one thousand votes every three to seven seconds and the others a hundred or less in that same time period.  That's the third reason we're calling fraud.  That those five acts could go up in such large increments every three to seven seconds, and the others, not so much.  And so evenly, too.  With the lone exception of the Cars briefly taking the lead, positions among the five leaders never changed.  The intervals have remained relatively constant, too, as have the rate of votes throughout the days.  For that to happen would require either a collusion of 4chan proportions, or an automated program, a bot if you will, doing the voting rapidly and incessantly.  No amount of "vote early, vote often" can rationally explain it.  People have to work (even if around the home), eat, sleep, shower (hopefully), and tend to other obligations; not to mention the fact that people also like to watch TV, go to the movies, attend worship, go out with friends, spend time with their families, etc.  The math that allows for a truly honest result as such requires the elimination of pretty much all of those things, plus the ability to sit in front of a computer screen and stay focused on one web page for a concentrated period of time.  It's just not plausible.  As I've written this entry, I've risen to stretch, eat, shower, do laundry, and halfheartedly watch a rerun of Murder, She Wrote (don't judge me!).  I imagine that due to the length of this post, some of you have paused to visit another tab, possibly Facebook or check email (and if you haven't, thank you!).

Of course, without a confession, or a sudden revelation by the IT people working for the Hall, the bot voting cannot be completely proven, and for that, some Chicago fans are still in denial.  To which, I must quote my father who often said to all of us children as we were growing up, "Use your God-given gift of common sense!"  I have a friend who refused to believe that famous wrestler Chris Benoit killed his wife and kid, and then killed himself, because it couldn't be proven one hundred percent beyond any shadow of a doubt.  Chicago fans denying the automated voting bot are just like my friend, who love Chicago so much, they cannot accept the possibility that anything involving their band could be negative.  Well, even in the justice system, prosecutors don't have to prove beyond all doubt; they only have to prove beyond reasonable doubt, and it's just unreasonable to believe that there has been an uncoordinated, happenstance surge for those five, and only those five artists.  Even if the Chicago voters all wanted an all-classic rock class, Cheap Trick would have divided the ballot between the other four classic rock acts to where it'd be impossible for all four of them--the Cars, Yes, Steve Miller, and Deep Purple--to each have over twenty-five million votes.  That's not even considering that the Smiths and Nine Inch Nails would likely have eaten into those shares somewhat as well.  It's unreasonable to think this could have just happened, and as no Chicago fan is confessing to collusion, a bot is the only logical conclusion.  The vote was hacked, tipped over, capsized.

Nevertheless, I promised good news for the Chicago faithful: you won.  Chicago never needed the bot.  As I type this, Chicago has over thirty-seven million votes.  Second through fifth places all have between twenty-five and twenty-six million votes.  Chicago has over ten million votes MORE than the next closest candidate, which is more than the less than ten million that Janet Jackson, in sixth place has.  Even if every vote for fifth place was bot generated, that means Chicago has at least ten million votes that were not from the bot.  Ten million honest votes.  It wouldn't be a runaway, but they would still be in the lead.  You should be proud of that.  And if the bot hadn't deflated the hopes of the fans of Janet, and Cheap Trick, and all the others, I'm convinced that you wouldn't, and probably still won't, give up your tenacity in voting for Chicago to ensure that lead.

But wouldn't you rather win honestly?  Sure it's only vote out of eight hundred or so in the end, but don't you still want it honestly cast?  If your answer is "Who cares?" or "Whatever." or anything other than "Yes.", you have no grounds to question the integrity or the credibility of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, because you have no more than you accuse them of having.  For the sake of integrity, I hope the IT people at the Foundation are able to determine (possibly by IP traces) just how many votes came from the bot and are thrown out.  Barring that, and given the voting patterns with the rest of the ballot results, I think once the polls are closed, they should start by automatically subtracting twenty-two million votes from each of the top five (I suspect the actual number is closer to twenty-three and a half million, but I'll compromise) and determine the top five from there.  Chicago will still be in the lead, but we'll undoubtedly have a true reflection of how actual people are voting.

Let us now paraphrase the words of wisdom from the Hues Corportation.  Rock on with your bad self.  Rock the vote, baby.  But don't tip the vote over.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Alright already: the 2016 ballot

The 2016 ballot has been announced, and everyone's weighing in with their thoughts about it, so it's kind of expected that I do the same.

Except, everyone's already said everything I've wanted to say.  Or if they haven't, I've kind of already said most of my initial reactions on Future Rock Legends.  So, forgive me if I'm parroting a bit too much here.  Hopefully, there will be some original content too.

First off, I went 6 for 15 again.  I predicted I would.  I suppose this is what's muting the enthusiasm for me, somewhat: that I stink so badly at predicting the ballot.  While I wasn't the only one who got only six, I don't think anyone correctly guessed fewer than that.  Also, I suppose I'm kind of bummed that there are really only one or two acts that I absolutely love.  There are many on here that I like, but not love.  So that's something, I guess.

Second, a lot of people, including me, were correct in our prediction that the Nominating Committee downsizing would all but eliminate any acknowledgment of the '60's.  Some of the acts were recording in the '60's, but none of them peaked any sooner than the '70's.  That said, a lot of folks got their hopes up that the 80's would dominate this time around.  Nope.  Guess again.

As far as the actual artists themselves go, the first thing I thought was, "What the hell are the J.B.'s doing on the ballot?  They're just going to be inducted in the Award For Musical Excellence category anyway!"  Now, no one's saying the J.B.'s aren't an interesting and worthy call; however, I believe literally everybody who knows the rudimentary aspects of the Hall, and has any knowledge of its side door shenanigans has already predicted that they will be inducted in the Award For Musical Excellence category.  It used to be known as the Sideman category, and it's widely considered the more appropriate place to put them, acknowledging all reality, including that their name comes from the fact that they were the backing band for one famous singer with the initials "JB."  It's just too on the nose to think they'll be inducted in any other capacity.  That said, fans of the Godfather Of Soul can rest easy seeing their name on the ballot, knowing that they'll most likely be inducted next year.

I suppose the next artist I should comment on is Los Lobos, mainly to say this is a band I need to get more familiar with before I say too much more about.  What I will say for now, is that the general impression I get is they're a niche band.  As far as niche bands go, the top of that list appears to be Big Star, who appear to have a bigger fan base, just not in the powerful positions.  Los Lobos, on the other hand has a smaller fan base, which in a weird way, makes them even more niche.  So, I'll just let you all wrap your minds around that one.

No real thoughts on the returns of Nine Inch Nails, N.W.A. or Chic, other than to say, "Yup."

As for the return of the Spinners, I'm pretty happy.  The Spinners had some awesome jams and I love smooth Philly soul.  I do worry about their chances though.  They don't appear to be a major priority for any one voter who isn't a NomCom member, but they could sneak through.

As for the Smiths, I too was taken aback by the fact that the NomCom hadn't given up on them as they did the Cure and the Replacements in previous years.  Glad they're back, though.  Thoroughly enjoy their music too.

As for Chaka Khan, my first thought is, "Thanks for the tip ?uestlove!"  If he hadn't posted that, I probably would have predicted Janet Jackson, not knowing I'd be right either way.  I'd love to see both inducted, but I doubt that'll happen.  Janet's got the bigger name power, and the bigger potential to dominate.  Still, I feel pretty awesome that I was the only person I can think of offhand who predicted JUST Chaka Khan, and not Rufus as a whole.

So the running motif of my predictions was "pick the act you hate."  That paid off exactly once: Yes has returned to the ballot.  I'm not a prog fan, but if this is the act they want to put in now, then it's better to get that over with, too.  While I did predict Deep Purple, I don't hate them, though I'm not a big fan either.

But those eleven acts are not the reason people are so abuzz or happy, though the last two are a big hint as to the reason.  The nominations for the Cars, Cheap Trick, Chicago, and Steve Miller are what really have people stoked.  All four have been previously considered, and all four are considered longtime snubs by the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  First off, Chicago are juggernauts of the populist scene.  They are the biggest albums act on the ballot, and the second biggest singles act (second to Janet Jackson).  With a lengthy career that still has a thready pulse to this day, they're an act the Hall had long tried to ignore but could no longer.  The Cars on the surface don't seem like a huge snub, or at least, not uncharacteristic of the Hall: the Hall has long dragged their feet on 80's acts with at least as much underground cred as mainstream, acts that feature some heavy synth elements, and new wave in general.  Still, they are an act that is popular with the general populace, respected by critics, and influential to fellow artists.  So, overall, it does seem a bit odd that it's only now they're being nominated.  Conversely, the nomination of Cheap Trick really is more of a surprise that it happened, than it is that it's taken so long.  They really don't seem to be any more special or deserving than acts like Journey, Styx, Foreigner, etc.  So why them?  Well, why not?  If you're going to clear out the backlog of classic rock acts, and Cheap Trick is part of the backlog, then logically at some point, they'll have to be cleared out too.  Doesn't really matter when.  As for Steve Miller, the waters surrounding his nomination are already getting murky, mainly because the members of the Band behind him have been excluded.  There's also been some tittering about how while he's produced some amazing music, he's also created some of the most atrocious.  It's ultimately a matter of not knowing what to think.

However, put those four acts together, and you quickly understand the excitement.  With these four, and Deep Purple and Yes as well, you've got a real chance to turn this into the Classic Rock Hall Of Fame.  At least this year.  Which sets the stage for it to happen again.  And again.  I said it casually, and I'll say it again here: when the Hall finally inducts Chic against the voting bloc's will, they could very possibly be the last non-rap R&B act inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  After that, guitars, guitars, guitars.  I really hope that doesn't happen, and to that end, even though I like all four of those newly nominated classic rock acts, I hope they don't all get through this time.  I'd like to see at least three of the R&B acts get in, just so I can have some reason to maintain some semblance of hope in the Hall.  (Then again, I'd also like to see a class of nine or ten Performer inductees, but we know that ain't happening either.)

So there are my early impressions of this ballot.  A lot of people are particularly stoked this time around.  As for me, "stoked" really only applies to the Hall of the early days.  I doubt I'll ever see a ballot of fifteen names that are both quite deserving and also in my collection because I love them.  This ballot, however, ain't too shabby, and that's good enough for me.