Starting with my predictions, let's just laugh and get it out of the way. As Gene Rayburn would say, I stubbed my toe on this round. I was off on my logic for how many nominees there would be, and I only predicted five correctly anyway. Ouch. Even my "reserves" didn't net me any additional points. Then again, I seldom do well on predicting the ballot. Trying to guess who will be on the ballot proves one of the Murphy's Laws of combat, "Professionals are predictable; it's the amateurs who are dangerous." And my correct predictions were highly predictable. Oasis was probably the most predictable, since the Gallaghers appear to be playing nice for now. Will that still be the case by the end of 2026, when the induction ceremony will be? Anybody's guess. With Alicia Keys becoming eligible this year, I was actually nervous that Mariah Carey would not be back. Thankfully she is, and I'm tentatively hopeful for her, but the number of women on this ballot worries me that the haters will be able to exclude her from their vote while plausibly claiming that it's not hating her because she's a massively successful woman. And Iron Maiden was pretty much the most obvious metal/hard rock act to go for with Ozzy and Soundgarden in, though there were a couple plausible alternatives. And the first-time nominees were both pretty obvious as well. Phil Collins is nominated as a solo artist. He's the closest thing to a lock at this point, but at this early stage, I'm not willing to call him a shoo-in. Lastly, it seemed like a wild guess, despite it being really reasonable, INXS has been nominated. The grassroots campaign approach seems to be working. It's a good way to get it done.
So onto the names I didn't predict. Well, big props to those who predicted Billy Idol to return. I kind of figured he only got nominated because of his performance at the Ozzy induction. I didn't think that would be enough to keep him aloft in the mix after missing out last year. But he's just so darn well-liked that they went back for him a second time. There were also some predictions about the return of Joy Division/New Order to the ballot. I'm a little surprised, but not terribly. Given the buzz among us hobbyists about the imperative need to induct this outfit, it seems like there's a focus of our collective cosmic energy that the indie/undie candidate that needs to get in next is this one, or the B-52's. But if the Hall is going to hold up a nomination of the B-52's until Joy Division/New Order is inducted, then even I'm going to start voting for them in the fan ballot. Turning to hip-hop, I look rather foolish in hindsight, but I thought when Eric B. And Rakim got their second nomination, the Rock Hall was showing us their hand where they'd go after Tribe and Outkast. That's why I predicted fourth party instead of between the three favorites of De La Soul, Snoop Dogg, and the winner, Wu-Tang Clan. There was a logic to my pick, but it didn't hold up against the lowered head and over the glasses stare that said, "Really?", and moved onto the more obvious choices. That's one on me.
Not very widely predicted, but there were a few murmurs that said Sade was gonna come back to the ballot. I'm not sure how prog-adjacent the style known as "quiet storm" is, but I'm sure there are some who are really excited about this second nomination. Iykyk. And there weren't many predicting them, but a few thought that between being nominated last year and their lead singer helping bookend the inductee tributes last year, there was a decent chance for the Black Crowes to come back. While I can't decide which nomination is a bigger head-scratcher, I am nevertheless quietly snickering that THIS is the act that was involved in both the Bad Company and Joe Cocker tributes that got nominated. Somewhere, Little Steven is trying to console Jon Sykes and Sykes is snapping back, "At least YOURS got nominated!"
Next, we come to what I will dub "Schrodinger's documentary." A documentary comes out about an artist, and we wonder whether or not it will lead to that artist getting nominated for the Rock And Roll Of Fame. This also applies to biopics. And it applies to Luther Vandross in this case, though Kendrick's song probably played a part too. I'm not dead set in which seven I'll be voting for daily in the fan vote, but I have a strong feeling that I'll be throwing a vote for him a few times before I settle on my daily seven. I think on the "Who Cares" podcast, Greg Heller said a lot of the things I worry about for Luther's case though. But it will be interesting to see if he sneaks through. But the other nominee that may or may not have benefitted from a feature film is of course Jeff Buckley, who is, in my opinion one of the two biggest surprises on this ballot. I've got thoughts, but I'll save them for later installments.
Moving on to the five that I don't think anyone saw coming, now. If any of them could have been seen coming, it'd be New Edition in a moment of delayed returning of a favor. No one really thought of them as playing ball with the Hall when they performed the tribute to the Spinners in 2023, maybe because very few had taken them seriously as prospects. Their nomination is definitely a surprise. Another one that maybe could have been seen coming is Melissa Etheridge. Honestly, though, this one requires following the Hall closely enough to know that Sheryl Crow is a member of the NomComm, and that she had stated Melissa Etheridge as one of her top priorities. It took a couple years, but she got her onto the ballot. Now, if you had asked me who was the most likely newly eligible artist last year, I would not have said Linkin Park. Their fans are the most rabid, but if you're thinking like the Hall, the one more likely to be nominated first from that crop would've been P!nk in my opinion. She has enough accessibility to the older crowd in the voting bloc to be legible as a candidate. That she made the ballot this soon in her eligibility is what surprised us. Some names are worrisome when you see them on the ballot because you don't think they're worthy. In this case, the nomination of Lauryn Hill worries me because she is worthy, and she's a contender. Ms. Lauryn Hill is the artist you nominate to block Mariah Carey getting in. Ms. Lauryn Hill is also a credible threat to Wu-Tang Clan. We have yet to get two hip-hop acts in via the ballot in a single year. I don't mind if either Wu-Tang Clan or Hill get in, but I do care about Mariah getting in this time around, and I think Lauryn is the vote for those who want to kill two birds with one stone. Otherwise, I'd be thrilled at this nomination. The last name on the list is Shakira, who seems to be the alternative to Mana this time around. A Latin artist who actually had some crossover success in the English-speaking parts of the U.S., and is still alive to perform at her own induction. I remember when she broke big in the States with "Whenever, Wherever." I was in college at the time. My feelings on this nomination are somewhat of a gender swap for Duran Duran. Just as there were a lot of women who both genuinely liked the music and wanted to be Mrs. LeBon, Shakira was one of the women of early 2000's dance pop that I wouldn't have minded being the Mister to, and I genuinely liked the handful of songs that I encountered. So instead of this nomination making me feel old, this makes me feel young again. Suddenly, I'm back in the laundry room in the Gilchrist wing of Yakeley-Gilchrist Hall, watching her videos on College Television Network.
And with that, we have a recap of the ballot. There are seventeen names instead of fourteen, but already I'm seeing some reactions that there were a few names that maybe didn't need to be on the list. With little to nothing patently catering to the classic rock crowd, we shall see how that affects the vote. Soon to come, the usual rankings of merits and personal tastes, so stay tuned for that. I got a jumpstart in a way, taking some days to binge-listen to some names that I thought would be on the ballot, and a couple of them have proven to be good calls. Time for the real fun to begin!
