That's how I feel about it at least. I have one that I consider a lock, about three more that I think are near locks, about five more that I think are very much in the hunt, a couple that could snipe through, and the rest will have to try again. Again, that's just my evaluation. As we look at what's unfolding, seeing some ballots from actual voters, let's see who's likely to get in. All percentages are made up, and do not add up the way professional statisticians would demand they do. So there.
1. PHIL COLLINS
Solo artist that was concurrently in the band Genesis for many years. First time nominated as a solo artist.
Why he might make it: He's an instantly recognizable name with a huge catalog, bona fide rock and roll credibility, chops for musicianship, writing, and production. Additionally, the known circumstances of his health give a sense of urgency to some voters.
Why he might not: He's already in with the band Genesis, and some voters just don't like having double inductees. Additionally, he's basically the poster child for rockers gone mild, with his plethora of ballads and assorted softer songs later in his career.
Whom he'd pave the way for: I think the solo induction would cause the Hall to renominate some past lead singers with softer second acts, such as the solo careers of Sting and Steve Winwood.
Biggest threats: INXS, Billy Idol, and the Black Crowes are all in the lane of "They're kinda-sorta classic rock, right?" Jeff Buckley is also a figure that has had a resurgence in popularity with Gen Z.
In the end: It's always a dangerous thing to call the number one seed a foregone conclusion. Just look at last year. That said, the way that Phil Collins is pretty accessible to everyone means that enough voters with strong proclivities may still find their way back to him and check that box too. Odds of induction: 90%
2. WU-TANG CLAN
Rap outfit that spawned several solo careers. First-time nominee.
Why they might make it: There is just an ineffable reverence for their name. Their music was always well-crafted and produced, and with all the solo careers the group launched, they're practically a supergroup in their own right.
Why they might not: For many, there's a real chance you know the name of the group, and probably the names of multiple members, but maybe don't know any of their songs, or maybe just the one that had the most crossover success.
Whom they'd pave the way for: The other big hip-hop acts that were predicted to make the ballot this year were De La Soul and Snoop Doggy Dogg. I expect those two are next in line.
Biggest threats: Lauryn Hill is the most direct competition in the hip-hop lane, while Mariah Carey and Shakira both had multiple hip-hop collaborations that may buzz close to the periphery.
In the end: I think the respect for the brand, as well as for the members themselves, will carry them over the hump and get them in. Odds of induction: 70%
3. LUTHER VANDROSS
Soul singer, most famous during the 1980s and 1990s. First-time nominee.
Why he might make it: When you consider how well-crafted his songs were, and sometimes even sounded a little ahead of their time, and THEN to realize he wrote and produced a large percentage of those songs, and THEN to realize how long he did that, it's quite an impressive career and legacy.
Why he might not: Some of the production values have not aged well and now sound dated. On top of that, his brand of soul may have been little too smooth, in terms of how well he crossed over into adult contemporary, sometimes more so than the pop market. There's also been a murmur of questioning his legibility with the older, straight, White, male voters.
Whom he'd pave the way for: If you want to move the hands of the clock forward, Usher seems like a logical next step. If you want to look back to some missing links, you could go to Barry White, Lou Rawls, or Teddy Pendergrass.
Biggest threats: Sade and Mariah Carey are both strong competition. New Edition could be quite soulful at times, and Lauryn Hill's hip-hop/soul had smoothness too. And the confessional vulnerability of Jeff Buckley makes him a peripheral threat too.
In the end: Soul has a hard time making the ballot, but it often performs well. And, let's face it, Luther is legible to the older, straight, White, male voters too. They had to have then-current music to play to try and seduce the ladies back in their youthful yore. Odds of induction: 65%
4. BILLY IDOL
Rock and pop soloist from the 1980s, previously in the band Generation X. Second-time nominee, seeded #1 for 2025. Oops.
Why he might make it: The biggest reason, honestly, is because his manager is doing the extra work to persuade voters to vote for him. Basically, the extra work that Mark Ronson did for Foreigner and that Paul McCartney did for Joe Cocker is what's being done for Billy Idol this year. Additionally, he's got so much of the "rock" aesthetic, it's almost synonymous with Billy Idol. And oh yeah, a solid run of hits that still get played from time to time.
Why he might not: His imperial phase was pretty short-lived, and a lot of his songs have a bit of that '80s synth cheese to it. May be considered too minor or mediocre.
Whom he'd pave the way for: Despite the Hall basically being subject to Disney, there's still an outside chance he could get punk acts like the Dead Kennedys or Black Flag nominated. Or maybe just other Disney-friendly rock soloists like Bryan Adams.
Biggest threats: Phil Collins is the other big soloist with traditional rock cred. P!nk has the punkish aesthetic that suggests charming danger. Iron Maiden has a harder edge sound. Joy Division/New Order has a more overt usage of the synthesizers that many of Idol's songs have. Melissa Etheridge is a more genuine bluesy rocker. And of course, also INXS and the Black Crowes.
In the end: The Hall loves the thirst, and his manager made it clear that Billy is thirsty for it. Much like Phil Collins, he went through the valley of being a punchline, but has become newly appreciated by the next generation to where he's kinda cool again. But mostly, it's the manager doing the work. Odds of induction: 62.5%
5. OASIS
Britpop band fronted by the Gallagher brothers. Third nomination: seeded #11 in 2024 and #10 in 2025.
Why they might make it: The Hall would love nothing more than to have that movie script finale on the heels of the hugely successful reunion tour last year. Since the tour didn't flame out midway through, there could be a new optimism that they'd attend their induction and play, which would motivate the voters to click their box.
Why they might not: They're not a sure bet to attend, and voters know that. Also, Britpop as a whole wasn't big enough in the States to really capture the attention of many of the voters.
Whom they'd pave the way for: For '90s rock bands, they could open the door for Weezer, No Doubt, and Smashing Pumpkins.
Biggest threats: The Black Crowes are the other rock band from the '90s with feuding brothers. Phil Collins and Billy Idol are also British rock stars. Melissa Etheridge and INXS could also steal some votes away, as might Iron Maiden.
In the end: I think too many voters want that cinematic screenplay ending where the massively successful tour caps off with an induction performance. It's not a lock, but it feels like a strong possibility. Odds of induction: 60%
6. INXS
Australian rock band from the 1980s and 1990s. First time nominee.
Why they might make it: They had a distinct style that felt a bit like a breath of fresh air that still had a hint of a pleasant, familiar aroma to it; additionally, they had enough big hits that their exclusion seems like a mildly embarrassing omission.
Why they might not: They weren't a part of any big movement at the time in the (American) musicscape, and thus they can easily slip the minds of people when discussing the music of the '80s, and thereby the cracks of the ballot.
Whom they'd pave the way for: The only other Strine bands I could see coming through the doors on the heels of INXS are Crowded House and Midnight Oil, but even that's far-fetched. I think the most likely successor is another band with a ton of hits, a unique sound, one massive album and a few other solidly charting ones, and is distinctly from that decade: Huey Lewis And The News.
Biggest threats: The Black Crowes and Oasis are the other solidly rock and roll bands on the ballot, while Phil Collins and Billy Idol are also in an adjacent lane. I weirdly think Sade could also snag a few votes from them as well.
In the end: They were easy to forget about for awhile for the aforementioned reasons, but now that they're on the ballot, their name is in front of the voters, which means there is every reason to believe that the voting body will collectively say, "Oh yeah!" and click that box. And as a personal point of privilege, I'm proud of myself for correctly using all three forms of there/their/they're in the previous sentence. Odds of induction: 55%
7. IRON MAIDEN
Heavy metal band with a lengthy career. Third nomination, seeded #10 for 2021 and #8 for 2023.
Why they might make it: With Ozzy getting in two years ago, and Soundgarden getting in last year, there's still an appreciation for heavier rock music, metal being a part of that. And the lane seems clear for them in that regard.
Why they might not: Despite the recent turn, metal still has a lousy track record as far as getting inducted. Part of that is because they're a name many know, but nowhere near as many people are all that familiar with their catalog.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Second nominations for Motorhead and Thin Lizzy are feasible, as well as possibly Megadeth, Pantera, and Anthrax, and possibly a grunge act like Alice In Chains.
Biggest threats: Billy Idol has the aesthetic of being antiestablishment, much as metal bands tend to have an aesthetic that is outside the mainstream culture. The Black Crowes, INXS, and Oasis are all solid rock bands, and Joy Division/New Order were also British musicians that were not huge with the mainstream audience.
In the end: I originally was very high on this being their year. But as I keep looking over this ballot, I keep understanding how many voters just can't seem to find room for them on their ballots. I'm not so sure anymore, but I still hold out a little hope that the eleventh hour inclusion of Blaze Bailey to the list of nominated members means his inclusion was the band's bargaining chip for showing up and performing. But is it through the ballot or in a side category? Odds of induction: 50%
8. MARIAH CAREY
R&B-pop songstress and songwriter. Third nomination, seeded #9 in 2024 and #12 in 2025.
Why she might make it: She's a walking definition of what it means to be superstar. Immense popularity and sales. A household name that is pretty much known by her first name.
Why she might not: She's strongly reviled by more people than we sometimes realize. Additionally, some just don't think of her as rock'n'roll. When the nominees were first announced, I discussed them with a musician friend of mine who plays in a Taylor Swift tribute band. Her initial reaction was, "Mariah Carey? For the ROCK AND ROLL Hall Of Fame?" There's a disconnect. And of course, many among John Q. Public hate her just because of the annual overkill of "All I Want For Christmas Is You."
Whom she'd pave the way for: Beyonce is waiting in the wings for next year. And I think down the road, her induction would be good news for Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift.
Biggest threats: I'm still convinced that Lauryn Hill was nominated to be the Mariah Carey vote for people who don't want to vote for Mariah Carey. Shakira and P!nk occupy a similar lane to Mariah. Luther Vandross and Sade have a lot of smooth pop that is also a bit of Mariah's oeuvre, too. Melissa Etheridge is also a songstress from the '90s as well.
In the end: I'm very nervous about seeding her to make it if there are eight this time. With Beyonce on deck for next year, I think this is Mariah's best chance. She seems so obvious, but so did LL Cool J. But the Hall cares about optics, and the rest of my top seeds have no women. Maybe it's a flaw in my process to not predict any others thus far, but I'm somewhat hopeful there will be at least one woman getting voted in this year. And when I think of which woman is the most likely to make it, it's either Lauryn Hill, Gillian Gilbert, or Mariah Carey. It's a razor-thin margin, but I'm going with Mariah as having the best chance. I have a sinking feeling this could be a total testosterone festival this year, but if there's any chance for there to be eight, Mariah has the best chance. Odds of induction: 49%
9. JOY DIVISION/NEW ORDER
Post-punk band that evolved into a dance music band. Third nomination, seeded #11 in both 2023 and 2025.
Why they might make it: They are such an innovative and influential band, that their importance is incredibly difficult to overstate.
Why they might not: Both post-punk and dance music have lousy track records at getting enshrined. And as the Hall does Disney's bidding and focuses more on the "fame" aspect, this band isn't completely left of the dial, but it is further left on the dial than most of the other nominees.
Whom they'd pave the way for: I think the B-52's' nomination is being held up until this group can get in. And another look at the Smiths or Replacements isn't out of the question either.
Biggest threats: The production values in some of Billy Idol's records are also present in New Order tracks. Phil Collins is a much bigger name from the '80s as well. Iron Maiden also have a lot of cred with not a lot of hits. Sade is another band primarily from that decade whose albums and songs are considered Art with a capital "A."
In the end: They went for eight in 2024, but nine would be really stretching it. Then again, it might just be so absurd that it happens. This is the best chance this outfit has had, and I've got them teetering on the fence. Odds of induction: 48%
10. LAURYN HILL
Hip-hop/soul singer, former member of the Fugees. First-time nominee.
Why she might make it: The Miseducation Of Lauryn Hill is truly considered a landmark album, one that may not have changed the world, but certainly did a fair job in jarring it. Additionally, some voters are considering this the chance to acknowledge the Fugees, by voting for her.
Why she might not: It's still just one album, plus a few other contributions here and there. And while some want this vote to represent the Fugees, there are also many voters who want the chance to vote for the Fugees as a group, and believe inducting Hill as a soloist will obliterate that chance. Separately, she seemingly has a reputation of being difficult to work with. And while I don't really see why her inability to keep track of time should be a deterrent, people keep making the jokes about it like it's a big red flag. Don't ask me, I don't get it either.
Whom she'd pave the way for: I don't see the Hall going too deep for hip-hop/soul, but a nomination for the Fugees may not be completely improbable. Or maybe a nomination for R&B singers like Aaliyah. I'd even say going back for TLC could happen.
Biggest threats: The biggest one is Mariah Carey. Luther Vandross's style of soul could block her. Wu-Tang Clan is the other hip-hop act on the ballot, and Jeff Buckley is another artist whose catalog is pretty much just one massively important, influential album. New Edition is also an R&B act that those who prefer chronological inductions would choose instead.
In the end: For those who really want Mariah to get in, Lauryn Hill is trouble. There just aren't enough members of the voting body with the mental bandwidth to vote for them both. What could be a both/and will be an either/or, and Lauryn's nomination is disruptive. I won't completely bet on it, but in some ways, Ms. Hill is the upset special. Odds of induction: 45%
11. NEW EDITION
R&B vocal group that hit big in the 1980s. First nomination.
Why they might make it: They're topped the fan vote, which usually presents a strong correlation to induction. Also, several voters have fessed up to them being a sentimental favorite. Plus, they launched a few other careers from their membership.
Why they might not: The percentage of the voting body who are Gen Xers might not be large enough for that sentimentality to garner enough votes. Those older and younger than Gen X may think of them as a prefab boy band, at least in the studio.
Whom they'd pave the way for: The best case scenario would be for it to lead to a Boyz II Men nomination. And if recognizing excellence in prefab productions can happen, that might actually lead to the Monkees getting a nomination. I don't think the New Kids On The Block would be considered, but strangely enough, I do think the Backstreet Boys could be.
Biggest threats: More artistic R&B from the '80s, such as Sade and Luther Vandross are the most obvious competition, as are Mariah Carey and Lauryn Hill.
In the end: I'd originally written them off, then I started listening to some of the voter call episodes on the Patreon for "Who Cares About The Rock Hall?" where voters were naming them among the first acts they were eager to vote for. However, as Joe and Kristen also repeat, their sample that they can get is very skewed and niche, so despite the fan ballot, I do think they're going to miss. Odds of induction: 40%
12. SADE
"Quiet storm" R&B band. Second-time nominee, seeded #13 in 2024.
Why they might make it: They're a band that is known for taking their time to make their music as high quality art as possible and was making waves even as recently as a couple years ago. Seemingly well-respected among other musicians.
Why they might not: Taking that much time between albums may ensure quality, but it can also be construed as inconsistent. Also, they might be a little too smooth and easy listening to connect with enough voters. That quiet storm could be light drizzle.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Quiet storm isn't a cornucopia of possibilities for the Hall, as Roberta Flack is the only other big possibility in that lane. I also think Toni Braxton could get a nod after Sade as well.
Biggest threats: Some of the other names in R&B that could obstruct this band would be Mariah Carey, Lauryn Hill, Luther Vandross, and maybe even New Edition.
In the end: Again, as I said about their last nomination, I'm not completely ruling them out. There are only a couple names that would shock me if they got in. So despite being seeded this low, I do think they have a shot, but I think there's a bigger chance they get lost in the shuffle again. Odds of induction: 35%
13. MELISSA ETHERIDGE
Rock singer/songwriter. First time nominated.
Why she might make it: She intersects with a lot of the circles and thus represents a lot: the women musicians, the LGBTQIA+ community, and as a somewhat bluesy rock and roller who plays guitar, she's also incredibly legible to the older members of the voting body, among others.
Why she might not: Her catalog doesn't stretch very far, and has only a few songs that people really remember, and thus might not be a high priority for the votership.
Whom she'd pave the way for: The Lilith Fair scene, or just other women in rock and roll from the '90s, ranging from the Indigo Girls, to Alanis Morissette, to even Jewel.
Biggest threats: The Black Crowes, Oasis, and Billy Idol are the closest to her, sonically. Luther Vandross is another representative for the LGBTQIA+ community, and Joy Division/New Order appeal to that community as well. And from among the fellow women, P!nk and Mariah Carey are probably the most direct competition.
In the end: With a ballot like this, the crux of her viability is appeal to the older voters and to the rockist crowd. But there are alternatives to her that might be more alluring. I just don't think it'll be enough for her on her first nomination. Odds of induction: 30%
14. P!NK
Pop star famous for the namesake pink streak in her hair. First-time nominee.
Why she might make it: She had a very strong track record of reliably putting out hits for over a decade. Additionally, she's got the image of a rockstar, the look. And some of her lyrics do have an attitude of telling people to go take a flying leap.
Why she might not: Beyond the aesthetic and some of her lyrics that at the very least, suggest she's prepared for violence to happen and she won't back down, her overall catalog seems more consistent with that of a "pop princess," and not only is that subset of an era of rock and roll a hard sell to the voting body, she's also not at the front of that particular queue. Additionally, being the most newly eligible artist on the ballot, there's a lot of "too soon" statements flying about.
Whom she'd pave the way for: Contemporaries such Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera could benefit from her induction. And if artists like Olivia Rodrigo and Lolo can maintain their momentum, P!nk's induction could eventually make the way smoother for them as well.
Biggest threats: The most direct competition is Shakira. Melissa Etheridge can go toe-to-toe with her in terms of rock cred, and Mariah Carey is bigger in terms of commercial success in the pop realm.
In the end: I think the "too soon" crowd is going to win out. Despite the White Stripes getting in last year, they're not entirely ready to embrace the 21st century by enshrining an artist that didn't debut prior to Y2K. Odds of induction: 25%
15. JEFF BUCKLEY
Confessional singer/songwriter from the '90s. First time nominated.
Why he might make it: His lone complete album Grace is an extremely influential album, not just in the past, but he's also found a new inroad with Gen Z.
Why he might not: It's still just one album, that is often boiled down to one cover song, and Gen Z don't exactly comprise a huge part of the voting bloc.
Whom he'd pave the way for: This is a tough one to call, because his influence may still be heading towards its acme, but the likes of Adele, Lana Del Rey, and possibly, obliquely, Ray LaMontagne.
Biggest threats: Sade and Phil Collins are acts that have had a surprising resurgence in popularity with Gen Z. Melissa Etheridge occupies a kind of '90s singer/songwriter space as well. And the other one-album wonder, Lauryn Hill could draw votes away.
In the end: Jeff Buckley in the Hall sounds wonderful in theory. In practice, it's a tougher sell, just because for having one album, the ballot will always seem competitive unless he's the oldest artist on the ballot. Seriously doubt this is his year. Odds of induction: 20%
16. THE BLACK CROWES
Rock band from the '90s. Second nomination, seeded #13 in 2025.
Why they might make it: They're a meat-and-potatoes rock band, and after last year's ceremony being scant on performances from inductees who are rock in the traditional sense, voters may want that this year.
Why they might not: Despite a decent string of albums that sold fairly well, their legacy itself is fairly condensed in quantity and compressed to a very small time frame, making their resume seem a little thin.
Whom they'd pave the way for: The trail isn't too long, but does include some '90s rock bands like Counting Crows and the Jayhawks.
Biggest threats: Melissa Etheridge is the most stylistically similar, while Oasis and INXS are also rock bands, and Jeff Buckley is a figure from the same relative timeframe.
In the end: Outside of the traditionalists who want guitar bands to dominate every year's class, possibly to the point of exclusivity, I don't see the voters warming up to this name any more this year than they did last year. Odds of induction: 15%
17. SHAKIRA
Latin dance and pop star. First time nominated.
Why she might make it: She's had a huge string of hits, is a major part of the rise in popularity of Latin-infused music during the 21st century, and is still culturally relevant.
Why she might not: From an American standpoint, to Rock Hall voters, she's a pop princess from the '00s who is jumping the queue, and while multi-culturalism is celebrated in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, it really tends to be multi-culturalism within the United States that is celebrated, rather than on a global scale.
Whom she'd pave the way for: Getting Shakira in could mean a second nomination for Mana, or maybe some recognition for Soda Stereo. There is also the chance that it could reverse engineer some nominations for Gloria Estefan And The Miami Sound Machine, or Selena, or a second nomination for Los Lobos.
Biggest threats: P!nk is considered a peer in the same sphere as Shakira. Mariah Carey is another superstar of massive proportions. Joy Division/New Order is another act known for making danceable music.
In the end: I have a habit of seeding my personal favorites lower than maybe I should. Last year, several others said Chubby Checker was a lock, and I balked, seeding him seventh. We don't know where he finished, but I was nervous to get my hopes up. There hasn't been nearly as much consensus for Shakira making it. As for why her, pure speculation on my part here, but I'm guessing that the member who nominated Mana last year nominated Shakira. This NomComm member, like her nominees, are from outside the U.S., and she is trying to get rock en espannol represented. She's going for authenticity of the genre, not "easing into it" with American artists of Hispanic heritage (including Gloria, because she became a U.S. citizen before becoming famous). My conjecture is that's why it's Shakira and not them, but unfortunately, that's also why Shakira will not get in this time. But if you saw the personal tastes rankings post, you know that BOY I would LOOOOVVVVVVVEEE to be wrong about this. Odds of induction: 10%
And with that, we have seeded all the nominees for this ballot. A lot of the placements feel very fluid. I actually had a more certain seeding order in place. And then Blaze Bailey got added to the list of members for Iron Maiden. And if their chances are a lot better now, who suffers? A bit of rearranging of seeds to make everything more feng shui. Was it all in vain though? Should I have kept my seeds in place? We'll know on April 13. Until then, happy speculating.
