Official prediction for the Ballot of 2014

It’s now September, and the Nominating Committee is expected to convene and decide the ballot for the Class Of 2014 by the end of this month, hopefully announcing it before October, but not entirely expected either.  Nonetheless, almost everyone has their predictions up as to whose names will appear on the ballot.  Now it’s time for mine.  Back in March, the mid-season report had not only a precursor as to whom I believe will be nominated, but even a leap of faith guess as to six inductees.  How much has changed?  A bit, actually.  Although sixty percent of my predicted ballot is the same as March’s mid-season report, the forty percent that is new reflect a few recent occurrences, as well as just a few plain changes of the mind.  Here I’ll look at the ones I have chosen, the ones I removed, and even a few that others suggested that I’m not quite feeling.

The first name that remains absolutely unchanged is Nirvana.  Still a no-brainer to everyone.  Future Rock Legends pointed out that their first single makes them eligible this year, but if the NomCom goes by their albums, it’d be next year.  The NomCom may do some crazy things, but if the Beastie Boys were nominated on their first year of eligibility when that first release was an all-but-discontinued-by-the-industry EP, then a commercial single should definitely be proof enough for Nirvana’s eligibility.

Second, I’m still not abandoning my belief of Whitney Houston, who many believed was a lock for nomination and induction last year.  With Donna Summer now in, the ballot won’t be as divided against Whitney getting in.  Detractors have pointed out that with a new exhibit for Whitney’s cousin, Dionne Warwick, it may be the psychic spokeslady getting a nod instead.  Still, I’m sticking to my guns and saying they’ll go with the tragic death rather than the tragic endorsements this year.  If Whitney gets in, it’ll strengthen the odds for Dionne next year.  If Houston is not nominated this time, then we can safely assume she’ll be forgotten for several more years to come, and Warwick’s chances will remain the same.  Besides, the Hall has put up exhibits for the Association, the Guess Who, Debbie Gibson, Sister Rosetta Tharpe, etc. all of whom remain not inducted, so an exhibit is not exactly the clincher either, unfortunately for Dionne.

Also remaining a sure bet in my opinion is the reappearance of Chic.  This will be number eight, and all the pieces that have to be in place for them to get in are pretty much in place now.  Nile’s work with Daft Punk, the supposed “automatic eight”, even hand-pumping Bono to try to curry favor with some influential folk.

Speaking of pieces falling into place, I still remain fairly certain that Joan Jett And The Blackhearts will receive a third consecutive nomination.  They’ve also taken a page from the familiar playbook of putting out a new album to refresh everyone’s memory, like Heart did last year, and three consecutive years worked for Laura Nyro, so it looks pretty strong for Jett and co. if they make it back.

Of the six that I indicated as strong contenders for the Class Of 2014, five of them are in this official ballot prediction, the fifth being the Paul Butterfield Blues Band.  It’s no secret this one is next in Jann S. Wenner’s queue, and while he’s not on the NomCom, he’s got leverage, so don’t count them out yet.

Continuing on with other names that I predicted back in March, it seems similarly certain that there’ll be a second nomination for Procol Harum, and since March, we learned that Procol Harum is Little Steven’s current pet project.  Little Steven usually gets his pet projects on the ballot, plus the Hall loves the British Invasion of the 60’s.  These guys will be back.

With the induction of Randy Newman, the singer/songwriter slot is newly open, and over the past few years, the NomCom has been bringing back previous one-and-done nominees.  Look for two birds to be killed with one stone and for Cat Stevens to resurface.  Another name to possibly pop back up on radars should be that of Joe Tex, who seems to have no discernable pattern for getting nominated, but hasn’t been around for a few years.  These two past nominees are looking prime for reconsideration right now, and both represent a typical niche corner of the ballot, as Tex would fill the soul pocket.  Sadly, I don’t think the Spinners will be back this year, but quite possibly next.  I think the pressure for Chic is too great, and any possible name to divide against Chic, like a fellow ‘70s R&B group, isn’t safe to try.

The last name that was around back in March that returns now is De La Soul.  I had a hunch about them when I learned they were eligible this year, and finding out Toure’s fandom of them clinches it.  But, like Future Rock Legends, I feel they’ll be longshots if nominated. 

Those are the nine I predicted in March that I still think have a strong chance of being on the ballot.  So six have changed, but how?   The most notable is the name of my suspected sixth for the Class Of 2014.  I thought LL Cool J had a strong chance.  What happened?  Two words: “Accidental Racist.”  The atrocity of that duet with Brad Paisley is the faulty gyroscope that causes this plane to sink beneath radar.  LL Cool J’s out, and bring back N.W.A.  They’re arguably rap’s first supergroup, hugely influential, and would have been a shoo-in last year but for Public Enemy.

At the very end of the mid-season report, I predicted there’d be another blues guitarist.  While John Mayer was name-dropping Stevie Ray Vaughan, I just can’t hold out hope.  I think that it’ll be another pre-SRV blues guitarist, but not Albert Collins as first thought.  Instead, they may just choose another name from their list of previously considered, which could net a first-time nomination for Ry Cooder.  In the past, I’ve mentioned about the possibility of inducting him as a Sideman, and though he’d still be a good inductee in that category, he could appear on the ballot once, and then get back door inducted.

Just as I doubt that an exhibit featuring Dionne Warwick will secure her nomination (at least this year), so too I’ve come to doubt that a blog entry featuring Patsy Cline will gain her a nomination either, as I had thought in March.  But people who dread a misogynistic ballot, fear not.  The name-dropping by Don Henley, plus the current revelation of her struggles with Parkinson’s disease, is making me lean a bit toward maybe Linda Ronstadt getting some love at last.  The Hall has considered her before, but the serious support for her has been lacking a little bit.  Still, this time might be different.

With Little Steven campaigning for Procol Harum, I don’t see Yes making the ballot as a lot of people are hoping.  There’s been a big drive for Yes, and they’ve supposedly been gaining traction with the prog/metal subcommittee.  But Procol Harum is considered a proto-prog rock band of sorts, so I don’t think they’ll even put the two together.  However, we know from 2012, they have no problem putting two ‘60s British Invasion acts on the ballot together.  With the recent visit by Rod Argent to the Museum in Cleveland and the love letter he wrote afterwards to the Foundation, there could just be reciprocity of the love and we’ll see the Zombies getting a nomination.  Despite being short-lived, and having only a few hits, public support for the Zombies is actually pretty high.  Seems like a winning combo for the Hall.  Surprised it hasn’t happened yet.

Trying to fill in the remaining spots in a list of fifteen always leads to either putting favorite bands on, or picking from possible returning nominees.  To that end, in March, I suggested the possible returns of War, Bon Jovi, and KISS, also seeing suggestions for the return of Kraftwerk.  However, the NomCom has been making a habit recently of picking past nominees that were one-and-done.  We’ve already got Cat Stevens on the list, but there’ll probably be at least one more.  There are a few good ones to choose from, and I’m going to pick the Dominoes, the last one-and-done nominee from the ‘90s.  Bring them into the new millennium. 

I could easily pick another former one-and-done nominee, and there are plenty who want to see the MC5 or New York Dolls get another shot. And you can never really write off Steve Winwood either.  Still, I’m choosing to again go left field for the fifteenth slot.  I think they’ll go a bit more modern with this one too.  While people are clamoring for acts like Foreigner and Duran Duran, I’ll go even more modern and pick Soundgarden.  The NomCom does crazy things sometimes, like pitting another modern underground scene band against Nirvana.  Like De La Soul, they’d be longshots if nominated, but this might be a band they nominate to see just how many votes they garner.  It’s a bit tilted of an idea, but stranger things have happened.

So there are my fifteen names.  Some I feel strongly about; other, not so much.  But we’re all equal on this playing field.  I’ve submitted my picks, now to just wait another month or hopefully less.

A huge, but tacit part of the equation

2013’s Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame induction ceremony was the greatest broadcast presentation I’d seen in years.  There wasn’t any nominee, let alone inductee, that I absolutely loved (though I am a fan of Albert King and Public Enemy), but the live performances did give me cause to pause and reconsider my opinion about some of them too.  It was an exhilarating broadcast overall

The only part that made me sad was Chuck D, at least twice, justifying rap’s place in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  Public Enemy is the fourth rap act in.  At this point, there’s really no need to justify it.  Also, rock and roll isn’t defined by how artistic it is.  Rap isn’t truer to rock’s roots because it’s more artistic.  In fact, in some ways it’s almost the complete reverse.  Both rap and rock ‘n’ roll’s histories have been fraught with the onus of being considered the least artistic, the basest form of music known at the time.  But neither of those reasons are the part that saddens me.  What does is the constant focus on its blues roots.  Yes, rock and roll IS rooted in the blues, and we inducted Albert King this year to celebrate that.  And Freddie King the year before, and many other blues players in the past. 

But that’s not really even half the story about the rise of rock ‘n’ roll music.  For starters, it neglects the roles of country, folk, gospel, and even various forms of jazz.  More to the point of this entry, though, it also ignores a great section of the lore of rock ‘n’ roll, and even how the widely accepted as first #1 rock ‘n’ roll song came to be a #1 hit.  It ignores how Elvis became the King Of Rock And Roll, how Bob Dylan became so prominent, how R E.M. found their audience, and even to a more cynical extent, why NomCom members select the acts they do for the ballot every year.  It’s the role of youth culture, and it’s almost inseparable from the story of rock ‘n’ roll.

Much like rock ‘n’ roll music, it’s hard to say where or when youth culture really began.  To be certain, hints of it have been around almost as long as recorded history (the history of toys and games), even possibly including certain passages of Scripture, depending upon your interpretation.  But its rise as an almost self-actualized entity, particularly in North America, is a little sketchy.  The industrialization of the United States and the subsequent urbanization (and later, the subsequent sub-urbanization) may be the hugest factor.  In the 1907 song “In The Evening By The Moonlight, Dear Louise”, there’s a line about how after clearing the kitchen was “the only time we had to spare to have a little fun.”  Certainly, the rise of cities drawing away from farm life freed up more time for some youth to have fun and find things to do that adults didn’t have time to do; and the continued rise of automation, where machines replaced jobs that young boys might have otherwise held (because women generally didn’t work back then, and certainly not young girls), coupled with child labor laws, definitely helped till the soil that would be the bed for youth culture to spout. The seeds themselves though may have been planted when Franklin Roosevelt signed the Selective Training And Service Act in 1940. which allowed conscription even during peacetime, and suddenly the young folks, men especially, were continuously worried about being drafted.  Of course, unlike some of the wars that followed afterwards, there was virtual unanimity about the validity of going to war during the 1940’s, especially after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, so there wasn’t much division of thought between the generations at that point.  Following WWII, however, the necessity of the draft became more questionable.  Pop culture even took note of this at the time.  For example, towards the end of the 1947 movie, The Bachelor And The Bobbysoxer, starring Cary Grant, the young boy Jerry alerts the girl he loves, Susan, that he’s been drafted, to which she replies along the lines of, “Drafted?  But the war is over!”  And of course, the less popular Korean and Vietnam Wars that followed also helped the youth find their unity, their strength, and their voice as they fought against the draft that haunted them.

But during the time of U.S. involvement in Korea is also the time when rock ‘n’ roll began to coalesce.  Early heroes of R&B who’d be known as founding fathers of rock ‘n’ roll, such as Fats Domino, Ruth Brown, and Ray Charles were making waves, but not much crossover to the pop market.  Despite the anomalous popularity of “Sixty-Minute Man” by the Dominoes in the 1950’s, rock ‘n’ roll hadn’t really latched onto the fabric of society and incorporated itself into it.  One of the first people to really understand what was missing was Bill Haley.

Haley, of course, had been a country singer, known as the Silver Yodeler, and his band was first known as the Saddlemen.  But even before that, Haley had absorbed some of the music of Black culture in his vocations prior to singing country.  But when he and his band started fusing that sound with their established sound, it wasn’t instant magic.  The story goes that the nightclub audiences were rather unreceptive to it, and that was when the band realized that the people who wanted to hear this sound weren’t in the nightclubs, they were in the high schools.  After taking the chance by testing their sound by playing free shows at high schools, they noticed the style was a hit with the teenagers, and that eventually altered the course of their career, and music in general.  Haley even penned, “Crazy, Man, Crazy”, using the teens’ usage of the word “crazy” at the time, similar to how “radical” was used in the ‘80s, as a way of giving back to those teens.  And that was in 1953 (they had also made waves with their rendition of “Rock The Joint” the previous year, but that didn’t chart).  Haley continued with “Fractured,” “Live It Up,” his cover of “Shake, Rattle, And Roll”, the underrated “Dim, Dim The Lights (I Want Some Atmosphere)”, the double sided hits “Birth Of The Boogie” and “Mambo Rock”, then of course landed the first #1 rock ‘n’ roll hit in 1955 with “(We’re Gonna) Rock Around The Clock”, which had flopped the year before but gained popularity after its inclusion in the movie The Blackboard Jungle, the title of course, referring to school, where the youth were. 

Now what caused what is of course hard to say, since 1954 also saw pop chart entries from R&B groups like the Crows, the Spaniels, and the Drifters, but soon the youth and rock ‘n’ roll bonded together in a way that still exists.  Chuck Berry was soon tailoring his lyrics to the teenagers, Little Richard was electrifying youngsters with his wild vinyl performances, and let’s not forget the sheer sexual energy of Elvis Presley that influenced boys and mesmerized girls…all speaking to a youth culture.  In a telephone conference call with a forum at Michigan State University back in the early 2000’s, the never-to-be-inducted Pat Boone talked about the role that rock ‘n’ roll played in racial unification, and when asked, he concurred with the notion that rock ‘n’ roll bridged the racial gap at the risk of expanding the generation gap, noting that prior to rock ‘n’ roll, kids and adults listened to the same artists, for the most part.  Rock and roll is the first musical style that is uniquely of the young generation.  It’s this youth culture that saw the rise of the teen idols, popularized the dance records of the early ‘60s, absorbed the Beach Boys’ message of fun times and young philosophy, embraced the raucous British Invasion acts, latched onto the messages of Bob Dylan when their turn to be drafted loomed nigh, aurally devoured the bubblegum music of the late 60s and danced to disco through the late ‘70s and early ‘80s.  It’s the slightly older but still very much a part of youth culture nature of the college scene where acts like R.E.M. and U2 found their audiences, and where music snobs still say is the place to find the music that we should be listening to and will be the acts worth inducting into the RnRHoF in the future.  It’s the youth culture of the block parties where hip-hop found its origins in the ‘70s, and it was the youth culture of the early 90’s where grunge’s discontent resonated, thus also befuddling yuppie suburban parents.  And whether they admit it or not, it’s the place where the memories are stored for NomCom members, thus impelling them to nominate the acts associated with those memories (see Little Steven’s induction speech for the Rascals, and to a lesser extent the Hollies).

And it’s not like the two worlds of rhythm and blues music and youth culture are mutually exclusive either.  If one was to choose one record label that was the quintessential “rock ‘n’ roll record label”, chances are that choice would either be Atlantic or Motown, both of whom were powerhouses of R&B, and both of whom regularly released music with wide appeal to the younger crowds.  Instead, it seems the powers-that-be would have us believe that Chess would be the end-all-be-all label.  Nothing against Chess Records, they did indeed put out some phenomenal music, and Leonard Chess was absolutely deserving of his induction, but outside of Chuck Berry, their artists didn’t pay much attention to the teenage scene, and no surprise, Chuck Berry was the runaway biggest artist from that label.  To forget about the youth culture would be to forget about the fun music from labels like the Cameo-Parkway empire, and fellow monitors know my belief that founder Bernie Lowe is one of the biggest snubs for the Non-Performer category/Ahmet Ertegun Award, and that the Hall has yet to recognize any of the artists that were key to that legacy.  And not just Cameo-Parkway, but also labels like Swan, Vee-Jay, and even a share of the artists on Imperial.

So why does the Hall Of Fame downplay the importance of youth culture in its rhetoric and nomination choices?  Well, to be fair, they don’t outright ignore it.  There’s some acknowledgment of it whenever a newly eligible artist is nominated much to the chagrin of people who think they shouldn’t be inducting ‘80s acts until they’ve inducted every act they deem worthy from the ‘50s, ‘60s, and ‘70s (and again, we’re all guilty of that one at some point or another).  There’s acknowledgment of it when they nominate and induct acts like ABBA, Madonna, and the Dave Clark Five, who were at some point pop chart powerhouses, the pop charts decided most heavily by the youth culture.  They do it when they finally lift the stigmas and nominate bands like Rush and Deep Purple, who still influence young guitarists to this day.  And they even acknowledged it with the very induction of Dick Clark, nicknamed “The World’s Oldest Teenager”, who hosted a show about the music that teens were listening and dancing to, and who often referred to rock ‘n’ roll as the music that keeps us young.  And even Seymour Stein, when inducted, sang a song that he supposedly sang at his bar mitzvah, asking why shouldn’t he sing, since it keeps him feeling young.  So the Rock Hall does acknowledge the importance of the younger generations’ contributions to the ongoing evolution of rock ‘n’ roll, but they do it rather subtly.

But why downplay it at all?  One possibility may simply be the same reason we have the 25-year rule in the first place: the test of time.  Youth culture, for all the power it holds, is not renowned for being discerning, and unquestionable musical excellence is still the overarching criterion for induction into the Hall Of Fame.  The 25 years it takes for an artist to become eligible is designed to acknowledge overall excellence as opposed to recognizing music we’re now ashamed of, or heralding some meaningless Guinness-type world record whose existence is little more than a curio for a cabinet.  It’s designed to ensure Nirvana and Green Day’s inductions and keep Milli Vanilli and the New Kids On The Block out.  Consequently, they latently define blues music and music of the youth as being antonymous to each other, which is simply not true.

Similarly, it may even be as innocuous as defining a genre of music by its musical structure, instead of by its target demographic.  “Youth” isn’t a genre of music, but “blues”. “country”, “folk”, “gospel”, and “jazz” all most definitely are.  If the Foundation is about saluting the music, then they should talk about it in the language of musicology.

Another possible explanation for the downplay that we see is because of who is in charge of the Foundation.  I don’t necessarily mean Jann S. Wenner, or Terry Stewart or any one person.  But the various members of the powers-that-be do for the most part come from the same generation.  And that generation is not the current one or even a fairly recent brood of spring chickens.  They might prove to eventually stop being receptive of the up and coming generations’ message and means of conveying that message.  So they don’t want to be like Patti Smith and salute the up and coming generations, and so as not to stir up the claims of hypocrisy, they downplay the important role of the youth culture from their own generation as well.

Lastly, as with so many other conspiracy theories regarding the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, there’s the claim that it’s political.  Politically correct in this case.  In addition to being from the same generation, most of the members of the powers-that-be are from the same race, and that race isn’t the one that they claim rock ‘n’ roll’s music is most heavily rooted in.  So, out of political correctness, they heavily emphasize the bluesy beginnings, and ignore what made it thrive, made it lucrative. 

Whatever the reasons, the rise of youth culture as a catalyst for rock ‘n’ roll, both in terms of popularity and in terms of artistic creativity, mustn’t be stifled or ignored.  And when Chuck D boasts about hip-hop being “true to what rock ‘n’ roll is really all about”, not only does it sound cliché, but it also lengthens the wait of many deserving artists for induction into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, from Teen Queen Lesley Gore to college-rock standouts Sonic Youth, simply because they also stayed true to what rock ‘n roll has been about for almost 60 years now: letting the youth express themselves.

HBO's broadcast of the 2013 ceremonies - brief review

After watching the televised induction ceremonies on HBO, this entry will be fairly short and sweet.  I think they did a pretty amazing job this year.  Breaking it down by inductee:

Randy Newman: Good performances.  Admittedly, of the eight inductees, I still maintain that Newman is least deserving, and by a pretty far distance at that.  Nonetheless, Don Henley did a respectable job convincing us why his non-cinematic work is all we need to deem him worthy of induction.  But honestly, Don, leave out the politics.  I agree that Rick Perry is a nutcase, but to everything its proper time and place.  This wasn’t it, despite past speeches by other presenters.

Albert King: Great speech by John Mayer.  It’s easy to forget he’s almost as talented as he is an annoying d-bag.  A White Kanye, if you will.  Gary Clark…amazing musician, great performance, loved it.

Lou Adler: Loved what Cheech And Chong did.  They were funny and succinct.  Great speech from Lou himself.  And Carole King is always great to see perform.  No complaints here at all.

Donna Summer: I loved what Kelly Rowland said about Donna, even if I didn’t agree with it 100%. Jennifer Hudson sang a great tribute, and I was impressed with how classy the family members were in their speech, not bitter about how the honor is posthumous, though they did hint that there was some resentment.

Heart: Chris Cornell did deliver a great speech, though apparently the best bits were left on the cutting room floor.  My one gripe with the editing process was that they cut out some of the inducted members’ acceptance altogether, or seriously shortened others.  Heart is more than the Wilson sisters; let’s let the other members speak too.  As for the performance, I had to smirk when they kept it all early:  “Crazy On You” and “Barracuda,” kind of temporarily disowning their later, more ballad-like material.

Quincy Jones: I view Oprah the way a lot of atheists view Jesus: no problem with the person per se, but save me from their followers.  That said, her speech for Quincy Jones was phenomenal.  I didn’t even realize that he had, in a way, discovered Oprah Winfrey.  Quincy’s speech was great as well, and Usher did indeed give a marvelous performance as tribute.

Public Enemy: Spike Lee seemed all too brief.  Harry Belafonte said some great things, but was a little hard to listen to.  Don’t know what he did to his voice, but it grated a little.  Once again, let the other members speak.  It looked like they cut off Terminator X completely and only let Professor Griff speak a little.  A shame that DJ Lord and the Bomb Squad weren’t included, but it was obvious that that’s how it would go down.  Still, being onstage completely together was wicked awesome. 

Rush:  The fans were definitely behind this one.  I loved the speech from Taylor and Dave (though again, the best lines were cropped from the broadcast from what I’ve heard), the speeches from Geddy and Neil, and of course, Alex’s. How could you not?  I’m not a Rush fan, but even I was floored by their performance.  Simply electrifying. 

The All-Star Jam was great.  I like how they almost managed to represent every inductee with it.  Too bad Randy didn’t get a verse, or Jennifer or Usher or Carole.  And is it just me or did Tom Morello look like he was playing hooky from his shift at Jiffy Lube?

So other than editing out some people’s speeches, the show was really amazing.  The editing was actually really great for the most part.  A thoroughly enjoyable broadcast.  HBO did the event justice.  Probably the best broadcast since 2008’s very fly-on-the-wall presentation.

The R&B Hall and how it might affect the R&R Hall

In the much too long hiatus at the beginning of the year, a lot of drama has unfolded regarding the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, even as recent as this past week.  Among the biggest pieces of news, but not so fully explored, was the announcement of the departure of key people at the Rock And Hall Of Fame Foundation, including some members of the Nominating Committee.  Supposedly, these people left to focus on the development and execution of the new R&B Hall Of Fame.  The R&B Hall Of Fame announced its inaugural class shortly after the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame announced its Class Of 2013.  Looking at the people behind and the charter inductees of this new establishment, it raises some questions and concerns about the direction of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  Some of the questions looming nigh deserve serious discussion.

First off, why the split in the first place?  It really does seem pointless for a couple reasons.  For starters, how much extra time and energy does it take to be a part of two halls of fame?  Admittedly, perhaps ignorance on the subject matter is coming through, but given how many years the Rock Hall existed without even having a museum, and given that NomCom members only meet to decide nominees, decide inductees in the categories outside of Performer, and to actually attend the ceremonies; it doesn’t seem like a heavy extra commitment on top of their regular jobs already, all of which are at the very least tangentially connected to the recording industry anyway.  Planning the ceremonies themselves are really the only seriously strenuous part of being involved in the process, outside of trying to convince other committee members that a certain nominee belongs on the ballot, even if at the expense of another candidate who may also be deserving.  Taking part in another hall of fame shouldn’t be that demanding.

Maybe this is being done in recognition of the changing of demographics in the United States.  As political pundits loved to repeatedly point out upon announcing Barack Obama’s re-election, Caucasians are rapidly, if not already, losing status as a majority, and may in fact soon not even comprise a plurality.  Shouldn’t there be a Hall Of Fame for a musical style that hasn’t been skewing more and more White over time (which is another blog entry itself for the future), to reflect that?  But if that were the case, why not also make plans to begin a Latin Music Hall Of Fame in the States, since that is the most rapidly growing demographic?  Or maybe it’s being done to reflect the extreme dominance of R&B and rap in the Pop charts and the programming of Contemporary Hits Radio stations.  Again, this is insufficient because it leaves danceable pop out of the picture, which has carved out its own strong presence with the likes of Katy Perry, Lady Gaga, etc.  Changing demographics as an explanation only raises more questions than it answers. 

On top of that, hasn’t the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame pretty much acted like an R&B Hall Of Fame?  Not per se, but in the first eight years, at least half of the inducted Performers were African-Americans, none of who were renowned for playing rock and roll that leaned more heavily on the folk or country side.  And there have been only three years where none of the Performer inductees chosen from the ballot were Black, and one of those years had a blue-eyed soul act while another had a trio of White rappers (although one year did have a jazz artist in lieu of an R&B artist, and two more had reggae, which while still derived from R&B isn’t part of the traditional connotation of “R&B”).  Even as recent as 2008, Jann S. Wenner reminded the room how rock and roll is rooted in the “music of the Black man”, i.e. blues, jazz, gospel, and R&B.  There’s pretty much been representation of R&B of some sort in every year of inductions in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.

Which again begs the question, why the impetus to cut bait now?  While the language of the resignations has all been very pleasant, one really need only look at what they’re creating upon leaving to get at potential ulterior motives.  On the surface, it would appear that the people who’ve split feel that R&B has been getting less than adequate representation, which as mentioned above is an odd attitude to take given the continual presence in the annual selections.  Even more incredible given the littering of lists one can find online of the most snubbed artists.  Most are either classic rock, metal, or early alternative scene acts, none of which appeal heavily in the R&B scene.  Still, a look at the artists who’ve been repeatedly nominated but have failed to get in reveals at present the likes of Chic, Chuck Willis, and Joe Tex as the top three, with 18 nominations between the three of them.

Looking even closer at what they’re creating, the inductees themselves also reveal another side to this split.  Some of the no-brainers are there, such as Aretha, Ray, Sam, James, and Berry Jr.  There are even a couple awesome surprises for charter induction like Johnnie Taylor and Martha And The Vandellas.  But what ultimately is telltale is the inclusion of inductees like the Spinners, the Marvelettes, Whitney Houston, and Don Cornelius.  No one is saying that these choices are less than deserving, but the Spinners missed out on the Class Of 2012, the Marvelettes on the Class Of 2013, Whitney Houston from nomination for the Class Of 2013, when many thought it was a certainty, and Don Cornelius not receiving a posthumous Ahmet Ertegun Award induction this year either.  Though these are but four of the forty-eight inductees, the fact that these four are noteworthy snubs from the past two years of Rock Hall inductions.indicates possible bitterness about these people getting snubbed, and possibly other artists they want to see nominated, but can’t make any headway in the process.  Mere speculation, but not to be entirely ruled out either.

Another possible factor is the rise of rap in the ranks of the Rock Hall.  NomCom member Toure, who is not listed among those splitting, has sworn to only nominate rap artists from here on out.  That may seem counterintuitive, but again, look at the inductees.  Whitney Houston and Luther Vandross are representing the ‘80s, but there are no rap artists, not even Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five.  On the surface, it would seem no conflict should be present.  Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five got in the same year as the Ronettes who, while part of the Spector sound did have R&B in that sound.  Run-D.M.C. was inducted the same year as doo-wop group Little Anthony And The Imperials and “Soul Preacher” Bobby Womack.  This year, Public Enemy is inducted alongside blues guitarist Albert King and disco queen Donna Summer.  Even 2012’s elected Performers were half “blue-eyed” R&B of sorts.  So rap doesn’t seem to be conflicting with other forms of R&B.  Nonetheless, looking to the future, the presence of non-rap R&B candidates may get thinner in terms of soon-to-be eligible, viable candidates.  Whitney Houston herself might still not even be part of the conversation if not for her famous passing away early last year.  Beyonce, Destiny’s Child, Usher, and maybe Mariah Carey are the strongest candidates right now, but what about the likes of Mary J. Blige, Boyz II Men, or Faith Evans?  Does Bruno Mars have a shot, assuming he maintains his current pace?  Another piece of evidence, though by no means concretely telling, is the Rock Hall Projected project on Future Rock Legends.  Non-rap R&B artists of the ‘80s and beyond are pretty scarce, and those that made it often took multiple nominations.  Again, the opinions of the people on FRL vary quite differently from those of the NonCom and the voting bloc, but the sentiment may not be confined either.  If not, maybe there is a need to branch out after all.

Whether or not these are good reasons is partially moot, since the split has been made already.  Which brings us to the next logical question: how will this shape the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame classes in the future?  One obvious but perhaps erroneous conclusion is that the classes will get a lot more “Rock” oriented, meaning overwhelmingly heavy with guitar bands, a classic rock fan’s utopia.  This seems to be what would happen, since without a strong R&B presence, what’s left?  And the recent nominations of KISS, Bon Jovi, Deep Purple, and the recent inductions of the likes of Rush and Alice Cooper seem to point in that direction.  The problem with that logic is, of course, there are still a lot of NomCom members remaining in their seats of power who still don’t like those acts.  KISS and Bon Jovi have yet to return to the ballot, and it may be that Deep Purple will continue that trend. 

Those remaining members, in fact, may even serve to keep the Rock Hall continuing same as usual.  After all, how many members did the NomCom really lose?  Out of how many?  Ultimately future ballots and future classes will not only present the immediate answers, but also hint to the long-range possibilities.  And who knows: perhaps this split will wake up NomCom members and voters alike in favor of some of these overlooked artists?  Will the next time be magic for the Spinners or the Marveletees?  Will the Chi-Lites, Manhattans, and Dramatics finally be noticed for their impeccable smooth soul?  Will Johnnie Taylor, the Bar-Kays, or the Ohio Players serve to open eyes beyond the world of Pop chart sensibilities, and re-orient said eyes towards the R&B chart history?

Whatever happens, one thing seems sadly inevitable: the eventual closing up shop of the R&B Hall Of Fame.  Not to cast signs of doom and gloom, but things are already looking bad on the outset for this new creation.  Here are a few signs that may indicate repatriation to the Rock Hall by those who chose to split:

1. It seems to be done out of spite.  As stated earlier, some of the inductees seem like choices made to spite the Rock Hall for not getting them in sooner, while they had a chance to prevent any kind of fissure.

2. The quotas of eras.  Admittedly, not enough research has been done into this one, but offhand, quotas of eras do not bode well.  The Vocal Group Hall Of Fame did the same thing, and folded after a clean decade.  The same thing happened with the UK Music Hall Of Fame, which was even more short-lived and less restrictive than the Vocal Group Hall.  Meanwhile, the Rock And Roll, the Country Music, and the Baseball Halls Of Fame all require a minimum of time passage prior to eligibility.  Definitely more correlation than causation, but it’s still noteworthy.

3. Ridiculous pace at the outset.  Forty-eight inductees in their first class.  Maybe they’re trying to get things started with a bang, but this is more than twice the number of inductees than the Rock Hall has ever inducted in a single year.  Even if they do start including rap artists, there’s no way they’ll be able to maintain that kind of pace.  Like the Rock Hall has done, they’ll have to slow things way down to ensure long-term durability.

4. Significant omissions.  As mentioned earlier, some of the inductees are no-brainers.  Unfortunately, so are some missing names: Michael Jackson, Fats Domino, Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Stevie Wonder, the Temptations, etc.  Even worse, they seemed to have forgotten that R&B predates rock ‘n’ roll, as Ray Charles is the only inductee listed whose chart history predates 1955.  Where’s Louis Jordan And His Tympany Five?  The Ink Spots?  The Mills Brothers?  The Ravens?  Just some glaring omissions out of the gate, due possibly to the era quotas they seem to have in place.

5. Absurdity of some of the inductees.  Making judgment calls on the merits of particular inductees can certainly lead to heated arguments, but there are some questionable calls on this one.  It may not be about hits as much as musical excellence (similar to the Rock Hall’s apparent mission), but a charter class should be about those who are easily and undisputedly among the royalty.  To that end, Enchantment?  They only had a couple significant albums and less than a dozen hits across all the Billboard charts.  Or the Hesitations, a band with even less presence than Enchantment?  It would be an understandable statement to include acts that were huge on the R&B charts but largely unknown on the Pop scene, but they didn’t induct Millie Jackson, Fatback, or Chuck Jackson.  They went for the Hesitations and Enchantment.  Additionally, the inductions of places and record labels seem a bit ludicrous.  Was Motown absolutely pivotal in the evolution of R&B?  Absolutely.  But they’re simultaneously inducting Berry Gordy, Jr. and Motown Records.  Inducting a whole record label just seems ridiculous, especially when it makes more sense just to induct the people who made it monumental (and while the subject’s been broached, where’s Stax-Volt or Jim Stewart?)  Inducting exhibition locations?  Again, no one will downplay the importance of the Apollo, but that’s why exhibits are built spotlighting these locations, or why people petition the local council to name it a historic landmark.  But to induct a club is just a bit out there.  Lastly, Al Sharpton.  Seriously?  Being friend and mentor to James Brown does not merit induction into a music hall of fame.  By that logic, Perry Como should be inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame because he was friend and source of strength for Elvis Presley during his Las Vegas stint, and helped keep the King going during the depressing post-Priscilla days.  But no one’s seriously mentioned the Man Who Invented Casual as a Rock Hall candidate.  Nor should Sharpton be in the R&B Hall.  The NAACP Hall Of Fame?  Unequivocally.  The R&B Hall Of Fame?  No.  Just no.

In conclusion, the R&B Hall Of Fame seems like a creation curious in its origins.  There is certainly an ample supply of acts to induct and honor, many of whom will likely never even be seriously considered by the Rock Hall’s NomCom, but the approach needs considerable re-alignment before they induct their second class.  Otherwise, it’ll go down as a footnote in the history of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.

2013 Mid-Season Report

After a much too long hiatus, Rock Hall Monitors has returned.  Hopefully to be more frequent.  The ceremonies haven’t happened yet, and we still don’t even know who the presenter will be for Public Enemy or either of the Ahmet Ertegun Award recipients.  Nonetheless, it is March, which is six months away from September, which is about the time predictions appear for who will be on the ballot for the next year’s class.  Which means now is the appropriate time for a mid-season report.  What is the current reading on Rock Hall barometers everywhere?  These things are subject to change based on what happens during the year.  New albums, shocking deaths, and press statements are among several external factors that can influence members of the NomCom, and that doesn’t even include internal factors that go on in NomCom members’ lives.  Nevertheless, there is some consistency across the board, and here is a preliminary look at some names that might surface on the 2014 ballot.

Since mid-January, I’ve had a gnawing feeling of already being able to pick next year’s class.  Normally, I hate predicting a class without even knowing who the actual nominees are; however, certain indicators seem to point to six strong possibilities as the Class Of 2014.  It begins naturally with the glaringly obvious selection of Nirvana.  This one just couldn’t be any more obvious.  There was some discrepancy of when they are first eligible, but it currently holds that 2014 is their first year, and it’ll be their induction year. 

The second obvious selection is Whitney Houston.  Now, she was predicted as an obvious selection last year, too, only to not be nominated, but the omission is easily explained by the impetus to get Donna Summer inducted, and now that Summer is in, Houston is clearly next in line.

It gets a little hazier from there, but the next most obvious choice has to be Chic.  Their next nomination is their eighth.  There’s no official “automatic eight” rule that we know of, but no one other than Solomon Burke has needed more than eight.  And the powers that be are probably going to want to keep it that way.  Chic’s in next year. 

The path gets even hazier after that.  With Public Enemy as the fourth rap inductee, it’s obvious rap will be a staple in future classes.  Maybe not every year, but often enough.  At present, we have four hip-hop acts previously nominated that have not made it yet.  We know NomCom member Toure has sworn to nominate only hip-hoppers from now on, so who’ll be high on his list?  He may go for N.W.A. again, but I think he has assigned a higher priority to rap’s first solo superstar, LL Cool J.

The next pick is a dome-scratcher, but something keeps telling me that the Class Of 2014 will include Joan Jett And The Blackhearts.  It was surprising to see them nominated in the first place, and we did a double take when they garnered a second nod.  They may get the next year off from the ballot, but if they appear again in autumn, three consecutive nominations will show a persistence that was shown for Laura Nyro and also Donna Summer and will strengthen the bid for them in the Hall.

As has happened the past two years, I’m predicting a sixth entrant for 2014 in the Performer category.  And name-dropping by Jann S. Wenner earlier in 2013 was enough to get the Paul Butterfield Blues Band back on the ballot, and much like Darlene Love, two consecutive nominations after having been absent from the ballot for awhile should prove efficacious for this outfit.

So while I don’t normally engage in the practice, that’s my early inclination toward the Class Of 2014.  But the mid-season report doesn’t stop there.  Who else will be on the ballot?  The recent blog entry on the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame’s official site about Patsy Cline may prove prescient towards her finally getting some recognition.  It may prove unpopular though, since country has seldom gotten serious recognition from the Rock Hall, for reasons both valid and curious. 

Another strong possibility for nomination will be De La Soul as they’ll be newly eligible this year alongside Nirvana, and also a pet rap act for Toure to nominate.  And they really are deserving, but not having too much limelight even at the height of their popularity will mean more than one nomination will be needed to get them in.

Returning names, aside from those already mentioned will likely include Procol Harum and Cat Stevens.  The NomCom has shown their hand on the former: Procol Harum is the next nominee from the ‘60s British Invasion that has to get in before they nominate any others.  As for Yusuf Islam, the second nomination of Randy Newman this past year shows the continuances of the two trends of bringing back past nominees that hadn’t been nominated in awhile and of commitment to the singer-songwriters.  Cat Stevens is the only remaining past nominee who is noted primarily as a singer-songwriter (though Lou Reed, Gram Parsons, and possibly even Steve Winwood would fit that bill).  Meanwhile, after being off the ballot last year, War could return, though once again, they’ll probably get lost in the shuffle.  The desire for more guitar representation could see either Bon Jovi or KISS getting a second nod (I don’t see Deep Purple making it onto the ballot two years in a row, sorry).  Aside from Whitney Houston, soul music may also be represented by Joe Tex, who hasn’t been on the ballot for a couple years.  He’s due to reappear.

Just like that, we’re up to 14.  One more likely slot, and normally I choose a left-field candidate.  But last year, Future Rock Legends made an interesting prediction with Junior Parker, noting their commitment to the blues.  While they may not want to divide the ballot against Butterfield, they may want to keep it going now that the King triumvirate is complete.  The trend right now is towards the guitarists, and so, while somewhat leftfield as well, a possible blues guitarist to keep in mind would be Albert Collins.

And with that, the mid-season report is concluded.  As stated earlier, there are many factors that could come into play that were ignored here, many events that could occur to change the direction of the ballot, and many other ways this could go.  September holds the answer.

My picks for 2013

After drawing this out for much too long, I now present my prediction for the Class of 2013.  I’ve given them all seed placements, but the only real advantage of doing so is that if, like last year, they do induct more than five, the sixth is automatically my sixth pick, so that I’m covered there.  And of course, I’ve been horribly wrong before, having in the past seen those I’ve seeded dead last end up being inducted.  It’s a tough call for the most part, and while I have been 100% in the past, I’ve also been 40% before.  Speaking of percentages, most of them are pretty much pulled out of thin air, and not some mathematical calculation.  So, time to put up or shut up.

 

1. Public Enemy

Landmark hip-hop group, known for politically charged lyrics.  Newly eligible, thus first-time nominee.

Why they might make it: Highly influential in the hip-hop community, and highly respected outside of it.  The political and social themes in a heavy amount of their songs make them the standout darlings.

Why they might not: This is the ninth consecutive ballot to have at least one hip-hop act on it, and so far, they’ve only been successful just over a third of the time.  It’s also worth noting the embarrassment that has been hype man Flavor Flav’s public profile over the past decade, and coupled with the scandal of Professor Griff’s anti-Semitic remarks of the past, there’s some bad energy working against them.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Hip-hop and rap are pretty much a given to be on any ballot in the future, so take your pick of any such star.  Most likely, you’ll see the future nomination of solo Chuck D, and maybe even cause some waves for the recognition of earlier acts like the Sugarhill Gang, or a renewed effort for Afrika Bambaataa, hopefully including the Soul Sonic Force this time.

Who’s their biggest threat: It’s obvious, fellow rap outfit and newly eligible N.W.A. are the cut and dry competition for this crew.

In the end: We’ll be hoping for recognition, if not now then down the line, for their Bomb Squad.  When Bruce Springsteen lists your work among those that makes the earth shake and spit fire, the sky to split apart and for God to pour out—all while inducting U2 into the Hall—you’re in, first ballot.  Induction chances: 95%

 

2. Donna Summer

One of the key figures of disco during the 70’s and early 80’s.  Fifth-time nominee.  Seeded dead last (#9) in 2008, and #6 in 2010, 2011, and 2012. 

Why she might make it: She’s royalty… the “Queen Of Disco.”  She’s got the longest list of hit singles than any of the artists on the ballot.  Very influential female singer, influencing the already-inducted Madonna, as well as other starlets of dance music.  There’s also an affirmative action side to consider, as there’s usually an effort to induct at least one racial minority, and one woman.  She fits both bills nicely and conveniently.

Why she might not: Don’t kid yourself, there’s a bias against disco, with the Bee Gees, ABBA, and Earth, Wind, And Fire representing the style—and even then some would claim ABBA and Earth, Wind, And Fire aren’t really all that disco either.  She’s missed out on tighter ballots before, too, ones that had fewer nominees.

Whom she’d pave the way for: The biggest and most obvious choice is the diva who also died this past year, Whitney Houston.  She’s a lock for nomination once Donna is in.  Janet Jackson is also a strong possibility, and Mariah Carey will be eligible within the next few years, too.

Who are her biggest threats: Chic is really the only direct competition against her this year, though Kraftwerk is also quite renowned for their influence upon the dance music of today.

In the end: She’s been deserving for years, and now that she’s passed away, they’re gonna induct her, saying we lost a superstar too soon, while bemoaning that they didn’t get her in sooner.  I’d say that sentiment will be the theme of her presenter’s induction speech too.  Induction chances: 80%

 

3. Randy Newman

Artistic singer/songwriter with a distinctive vocal delivery.  Second-time nominee, previously unseeded.

Why he might make it: The Hall loves the super artistic singer/songwriters, and he fits the bill.  His gift for irony and wordplay as well as conscience that pours through the pores of his music make him a treasure among the higher echelons of the Rock Hall.

Why he might not:  The last time he was nominated, he lost out to two first time eligibles, a superstar act from the ‘70s, a major blues figure, and an act from the ‘60s basically known for only one song.  Good thing there’s nothing like that on this year’s bal—oh snap.  Being serious now, to use a fishing analogy, Newman’s nets are strong, but they don’t cast very wide or far.  Newman’s appeal generally tends to be either hipster or Disney, niche either way you look at it.  I said it then, I’ll say it again: his biggest assets are also his biggest liabilities. 

Whom he’d pave the way for: Being a former one-and-done nominee and singer/songwriter, Cat Stevens seems to be the next in line, though they might try and induct Carole King as a Performer again one of these years.  There’s a chance for others like Jim Croce, Don McLean, Carly Simon, or even Buffy Saint-Marie, Phil Ochs, and Tim Hardin, to name a few.

Who are his biggest threats:  With no other nominees particularly esteemed as singer/songwriters, though many of them did write their own stuff, his biggest threats are ultimately his fellow former one-and-done nominees.  In this case, Kraftwerk, the Meters, and the Paul Butterfield Blues Band

In the end: Initially, I’d written him off as having no chance once again, but then I remembered 2009.  The first year the ceremonies were in Cleveland, and they inducted hometown hero Bobby Womack.  With the 2013 ceremonies set to happen in Los Angeles, it just seems a little too much of a call to come on home for the local lad.  In addition to the love of singer/songwriters of course.  Induction chances: 60%

 

4. Rush

Progressive and hard-rock trio.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: Hugely innovative, influential band with an impressive string of extremely well-selling albums and a fan following that borders on cultist, ranking among the likes of the Grateful Dead.

Why they might not: Because the casual fan’s opinion is not given the same weight and credence as the industry insider’s, and the industry insiders that have a vote in the proceedings are largely not fans of prog, and certainly not fans of Rush. Unless there’s a significant chunk of the voting bloc that are among the huge stock of fans, they’re relying on voting folks to put aside their personal tastes and vote for them (my sample ballot shows me failing to do this for Rush’s sake).

Whom they’d pave the way for: The Hall Of Fame does not discriminate or favor nationalities of origin (just nations they impact it seems), so anyone who says Rush opens the door for more Canadian acts is either an idiot or a Canadian exhibiting signs of stereotype.  The acts they would really pave the way for would include the likes of Uriah Heep, UFO, and X, as well as possibly prog bands like Emerson, Lake, And Palmer, or King Crimson.

Who are their biggest threats: The clear competitor is Deep Purple.  Other possible divisions would occur against the likes of Heart, Joan Jett And The Blackhearts, and even Kraftwerk,

In the end: When the band finally made the cover of Rolling Stone magazine a few years ago, it was a shock to much of the music world, since editor-in-chief Jann S. Wenner was suspected to be playing a role in keeping them out of the Hall.  Before the cover, they hadn’t even been seriously previously considered.  With them having finally been on the cover, some view it as Wenner giving his blessing for their induction, and Wenner’s word does carry weight with the voting bloc.  They’ve since been considered and are now a nominee, and I say the momentum’s enough to get them in.  Induction chances: 55%

 

5. N.W.A.

Pioneer gangsta rap group.  Newly eligible, thus first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They’re pioneers. Straight Outta Compton is a landmark rap album, and their subsequent albums, though few, were also hugely successful.  They were pioneers of gangsta rap, which almost completely obsolesced the older style hip-hop of the original hip-hop pioneers, as gangsta became synonymous with rap for a good portion of the ‘90s.  Also, as the launching point for the solo careers of Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy-E, and even MC Ren, and Yella, they could be considered rap’s first supergroup, or at the very least, the rap equivalent of the Yardbirds.

Why they might not:  Quick, ask someone who hates rap (or at least did in the ‘90s) why they hate(d) rap.  That laundry list that is their answer?  Most of that traces clearly back to N.W.A.  Even if they didn’t pioneer some of those aspects themselves, they did combine it all into a blend that is the main exhibit for hatred of rap: self-gratifying, gratuitous and prolific profanity; incredibly subversive lyrics that went beyond mere wake-up calls of socially conscious folk and rock, eschewing civil disobedience, opting instead for and glorifying bloody violence; self-aggrandizement that made “cockiness” look like “self-confidence”; plus the usual stock answers of how rap isn’t even music since what they’re doing doesn’t constitute singing.  And you don’t even have to be a stereotypical stuffy, White, conservative Christian to find that combination disturbing, or at the very least, inartistic.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The big ones are 2Pac and the Notorious B.I.G., the martyrs and symbols of rap-gang warfare, but also rappers like Ice-T and Snoop Doggy Dogg, plus the solo careers of most of the members of N.W.A. themselves.

Who’s their biggest threat: Public Enemy, being more artistically revered, more literate, and more favored on this ballot than any other act are the serious contenders to keep N.W.A. out.

In the end:  All those things that people hate about rap is ultimately not all that far removed from the bad boy antics and personae of rock ‘n’ rollers.  Chances are those things all ultimately serve to get the musicians laid, preying on the bad boy image that ladies presumably prefer.  And if there’s any year where two rap acts can both get in on their shared first year of eligibility, this is the year.  Induction chances:  51%

 

6. The Marvelettes

R&B girl group that gave the Motown empire its first number one hit single on the Hot 100.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: Anything Motown has a serious shot.  The Hall loves Motown, and really helping make Motown a household name is strong credibility.  Plus, in the history of the Hall, only one year was without a strong presence of the ‘60s (and even that did have an artist that recorded albums in the ‘60s).  The Marvelettes would be the best candidate for this slot.

Why they might not: The Hall loves Motown, but they sure can take their sweet time showing it: Marvin Gaye, Smokey Robinson, and the Four Tops all needed two nominations to get in, the Supremes and Martha And The Vandellas both needed three, the Jackson Five came up four times before getting in, Gladys Knight And The Pips took five, the Miracles needed a special subcommittee to convene and break precedent to get them in, not to mention twice nominated but still not inducted Mary Wells!  Only the Temptations and Stevie Wonder got in on their first nominations, both in 1989.  (Also the Isley Brothers and solo Michael Jackson, but both of whom are much better known for their post-Motown work)  Plus girl groups also generally need a few nominations to get in, 2005 inductees the Ronettes the lone exception.  Lastly, despite having a solid string of hits in the Top 40, they tend to be summed up with their major hit, “Please Mr. Postman”.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Getting the Marvelettes in might get the NomCom looking at Motown again, where we have Junior Walker And The All-Stars and Mary Wells as the last two major ‘60s acts for the family, plus a peek into the ‘70s shows the Commodores, solo Lionel Richie, and possibly even solo Diana Ross.  They also might lead the way for other girl groups like the Chantels, Crystals, Shangri-Las, even the Chiffons to get some consideration.

Who are their biggest threats: Donna Summer is actually the biggest threat, seeing as she represents both female presence, and non-rap R&B, and is practically a shoo-in.  Don’t forget about the other acts that were around in the ‘60s, like Procol Harum, the Meters, Albert King, the Paul Butterfield Blues Band, and even Deep Purple.

In the end: If we could be certain that they’d induct six again, instead of only five, I’d still be leery, but a little more confident in their chances.  And if they do, I think they’re a solid pick for the honored half-dozen.  Assuming they return to five though, I think they’ll miss out, but they’re strong enough to be the upset special this year.  Induction chances: 49%

 

7. Albert King

Highly influential blues singer/guitarist.  First-time nominee.

Why he might make it: Blues players generally fare well on the ballot: Buddy Guy, B.B. Kiug, John Lee Hooker, etc.  Plus he’s a highly respected man among the echelons of blues musicians, as well as highly influential.  Additionally, after seeing last year’s blues pick, Freddie King, get inducted as an Early Influence, there may be a concentrated effort to cast enough votes for him so that they don’t have to back door induct him as an Early Influence.

Why he might not: On the other hand, there’ll be those who figure that if they’re just going to induct him even if he doesn’t get enough votes, why bother voting for him, since his induction is assured.  Additionally, some voters would prefer to keep the focus on living musicians to make a good televised program out of the induction ceremonies.

Whom he’d pave the way for: Albert King is the first known Previously Considered blues musician to be nominated in awhile, so his induction would possibly start the cascade to clear that queue, meaning keep an eye out for Junior Parker (hey FRL, you had the right idea, just the wrong guy this time!), Junior Wells, and Slim Harpo.

Who’s his biggest threat: The Paul Butterfield Blues Band is the other major blues act on the ballot, but other sixties acts like the Meters and Marvelettes might block his path.

In the end: It would be an awfully bad choice if they did induct him as an Early Influence, but it’s a wild card possibility that sadly has the chance of fruition.  Induction chances: 50%; induction chances in the Performer category: 45%

 

8. Deep Purple

Highly influential hard rock band.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: This is a band that has been heavily demanded to get inducted, right up there with KISS and Rush, and nowhere more heavily than on Eddie Trunk’s “That Metal Show”, but even without Trunk, they’re a band that has been loudly touted as among the biggest omissions because of their huge range of influence.

Why they might not: The reason they’ve been omitted for so long is simply because the powers-that-be don’t hold them in very high esteem, and those people have sway with the voting bloc.  Whether it’s because they just don’t care for their style, or think of them as a one-trick pony for “Smoke On The Water”, getting them recognized this much has been a major struggle.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Other hard and classic rock acts like Motorhead, Thin Lizzy, and Ted Nugent could all benefit from Deep Purple finally getting in.

Who are their biggest threats: Rush is the clearest present danger, but don’t entirely rule out Heart or Joan Jett And The Blackhearts.

In the end: Alice Cooper getting in on their first nomination may be a key sign that I’m not paying enough attention to, but I feel that this will be an act like Aerosmith, Queen, or AC/DC—absolutely deserves to get in on their first nomination but somehow ended up needing two or three—or will be like Black Sabbath or Lynyrd Skynyrd needing nominations in the high single digits before finally getting approval.  Either way, this won’t be their year.  Induction chances: 40%

 

9. Kraftwerk

European progressive act that pioneered electronica.  Second time nominee, previously unseeded.

Why they might make it: A truly innovative group, they are partially responsible for a lot of electronica music today.  Especially in the European club scene.

Why they might not: While the Hall Of Fame doesn’t discriminate against acts from countries other than the US and UK, they do strongly favor acts that were very popular in the U.S.A., which Kraftwerk was not.  If a voting member isn’t too familiar with their stuff, and sees five other names they like, they won’t bother researching Kraftwerk further.

Whom they’d pave the way for: There’re a couple avenues to go here.  Fatboy Slim, Daft Punk, and many more famous electronica acts are still a few years off.  The Art Of Noise are a left-field possibility, though possibly too much of a novelty act to get in.  But Kraftwerk’s induction may help more acts who were huge, just not in the States, get some recognition, such as Cliff Richard And The Shadows, Status Quo, Johnny Hallyday, or Fela.  Both paths are a bit of a stretch, but if the road really dead-ended with Kraftwerk, they probably wouldn’t be worth inducting anyway.

Who are their biggest threats: Rush and Deep Purple are jockeying for the attention in experimental music, and Donna Summer is the clear choice among artists that influenced the world of dance music, and Chic is also in the mix too.  Other former one-and-done nominees, such as Randy Newman, the Meters, and the Paul Butterfield Blues Band may also detract.

In the end: It’s been ten years since they were last nominated, and they’ll need another turn or two before finally getting in.  Induction chances: 35%

 

10. Heart

Rock band from the late ‘70s and ‘80s led by sisters Ann and Nancy Wilson.  Second-time nominee, seeded #8 in 2012.

Why they might make it: They’ve got significant name recognition and a string of hit records that still get played on classic rock and retro-music stations.  They also fall very neatly into the “classic rock” category that public outcry claims gets significantly snubbed.

Why they might not:  Their later material consists heavily of power ballads, which doesn’t strongly favor them.  It’s hard to say: the value of power ballads is relatively untested waters, but all current indicators point toward liability status.  Also, the stadium-rocker kind of candidate has mixed success getting inducted.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  Pat Benatar is someone who might get consideration in the wake of their induction, but you could also go for stadium-rock acts with lighter later works like Foreigner, Styx, and Journey.

Their biggest threats: Joan Jett And The Blackhearts are the biggest threat, but Deep Purple and Rush are also candidates to hurt their chances.

In the end: Heart may pull a Donovan on me (who was seeded #10 last time and got in), and it wouldn’t be a bad thing if they did, but then again, I was shocked when Donovan missed his first time in 2011; I wasn’t shocked when Heart missed last year, and I won’t be if they miss again.  Induction chances: 33.3%

 

11. Procol Harum

British invasion group that first appeared in America in the late ‘60s, considered a progenitor of prog-rock.

Why they might make it: Prog rock has slowly been making progress in getting recognition, and as one of the originating bands to regularly combine classical and baroque themes into rock and roll, Procol Harum would be a great act to use to build momentum for it.  Another reason is because the Hall loves the British invasion of the ‘60s.  The past five classes have had four such acts inducted.  Lastly, Robin Trower is a venerated name in some guitarist circles.

Why they might not: Of all the acts on this ballot that might qualify, they are the most rightly accused of being a one-trick pony.  While they did have other revered songs like “A Salty Dog” and “Conquistador”, so much of their credibility still comes back to “A Whiter Shade Of Pale”.  Also, for proto-prog British acts, the outcry has been far greater for the Moody Blues.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The Moody Blues are the biggest act waiting in the wings, as are both other British invasion acts such as Manfred Mann, the Zombies, the Spencer Davis Group, and even possibly Herman’s Hermits; and also prog rock acts like Yes and Jethro Tull.

Who are their biggest threats: Rush and Kraftwerk both threaten their prog prestige this year, while the Marvelettes are the biggest competition from the ‘60s, as well as others like the Paul Butterfield Blues Band and the Meters.

In the end: If the Hall thinks inducting Procol Harum will placate the prog crowd, they’re crazy, especially if they think it’d make them forget about the Moody Blues.  Either way, the pattern for British acts recently has been one act needing multiple nominations, then one gets in on their first, then multiple, then first… this time should mean this group misses out.  Induction chances: 30%

 

12. Chic

R&B/disco group fronted by a crackerjack production team.  This is their seventh appearance on the ballot, not seeded their first two times, seeded dead last (#9) in 2007, #7 in 2008, #5 in 2010, and #10 in 2011.

Why they might make it: Their records were sampled far and wide back in the early days of hip-hop, so the influence factor is definitely in their favor.  From a musical standpoint, their bass and guitar lines are considered very tough to imitate or duplicate. The men in the group were all production geniuses.  Also, Nile Rodgers was on the Nominating Committee back when the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame was first founded, so politically, this an attempt to repay the favor to him.  Lastly, we know of Nile Rodgers’ struggle with cancer; they may try to get him inducted before it becomes another posthumous induction that will be rued for not having happened sooner.

Why they might not: We Rock Hall Monitors have a term we call “Chic Syndrome,” which is used to describe a musically proficient act that many are turned off from by the cerebrally detoured lyrics, which you see in Chic songs, though they are hardly the worst offenders.  It’s simply called “Chic Syndrome” because aside from the near alliteration, Chic’s the group that’s been repeatedly nominated and denied.  “Le Freak,” “I Want Your Love,” and “Dance, Dance, Dance (Yowzah, Yowzah, Yowzah)” wouldn’t make any list of “Best Lyrics”, even if that list went to one million.  And as we see with Donna Summer, disco isn’t popular with the voting bloc.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Other disco groups waiting in the wings include the GAP Band, KC And The Sunshine Band, and maybe even the Ohio Players.  It could even lead to inducting more soul-funk groups like the Bar-Kays, the Average White Band, and Charles Wright And The Watts 103^rd Street (Rhythm) Band.

Who are their biggest threats: This isn’t the first time that Donna Summer and Chic have appeared on the ballot together and both fell short of the mark.  Donna’s the biggest threat, practically being a shoo-in.  Kraftwerk factors in as well, for reasons explained above.

In the end: If Donna were still alive, I’d say it’d be lucky seven for them.  As such, Chic will be the sole, current leader of acts with the most nominations, but still not in.  Induction chances: 25%

 

13. The Meters

Funk band that did much session work, rooted firmly in New Orleans.  Second-time nominee, previously unseeded.

Why they might make it: The Hall loves the sound of New Orleans.  In 2011, they inducted Dr. John, and in 2012, they inducted Cosimo Matassa, an engineer who helped record and shape the New Orleans sound.  Additionally, the Neville Brothers have been starting to get some consideration as well, and two of those brothers were one-time members of the Meters.  This group might be able to ride those waves into the Hall this year.

Why they might not:  They’re one of the more obscure names on this ballot, never really breaking through the glass ceiling, commercially speaking.  No real signature tune that they’re instantly linked to by John Q. Public.  Also, this is the act on this ballot that has the greatest time elapsed between nominations.  They just seem a little out of the blue.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The sound of New Orleans could be carried on in the future with the Neville Brothers, Buckwheat Zydeco, and even Virginian Gary U.S. Bonds, whose sound drew big from the New Orleans style.  Beyond New Orleans, the Bar-Kays would be another great instrumental group that also did session work.

Who are they’re biggest threats: They’re one of four former one-and-done acts on this ballot, and they’ll all be vying for attention, so consider Randy Newman, Kraftwerk, and the Paul Butterfield Blues Band the closest threats, as well as the ‘60s R&B act the Marvelettes.

In the end: When you bring back a nominee that has gone more than five years since their last nomination, getting them in this time doesn’t usually happen.  ABBA managed to do it after a seven year absence, getting inducted in 2010, and with four such acts on this ballot, one of them is bound to break through, but I’m betting that will be Randy Newman, not the Meters.  Induction chances: 20%

 

14. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band

Blues-rock band from the mid-‘60s.  Second-time nominee, previously unseeded.

Why they might make it: They’re a formative blues-rock act.  Their sound is considered to be a pioneer sound.  A few of its past members have some amount of fame to their own names.  Also, they were name dropped by none other than Jann S. Wenner as an act he’d like to see get in.  If you don’t think that means something, you don’t know the Hall. 

Why they might not: They’re arguably the most obscure name on this ballot, having no hit singles and no album making the top quarter of the Billboard 200.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  I’m operating on the assumption that they want to get as many important blues and blues-rock names inducted before they go after the big draws of Stevie Ray Vaughn And Double Trouble, and possibly even George Thorogood And The Destroyers.  The best bet for next in line in this vein would be Johnny Winter.

Who are their biggest threats: Albert King is the bigger blues name this time around, and as I’ve said three other times already, Randy Newman, the Meters, and Kraftwerk are threats for reasons I’ve stated enough times already.

In the end: As much clout as Jann S. Wenner has, I think he’ll have to continue to call this group an act he still wants to see in, because it ain’t happening this time.  Induction chances: 15%

 

15. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts

Harder-rock-but-not-quite-metal band from the ‘80s.  Second-time nominee, seeded #13 last year.

Why they might make it:  They’re good time, fun rock and roll, and who doesn’t appreciate that?  And when an artist has an anthemic rock and roll song, the artist has a tendency to get recognized, and if they have a few hits aside of that, so much the better. 

Why they might not:  They made very little waves besides their one major hit, “I Love Rock ‘N Roll”, and what they did have was largely covers (including said major hit).  The Hall Of Fame usually prefers to honor originality.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  As well as the obvious Pat Benatar, they might also clear the path for more classic rock acts with just a few, but well-remembered songs.  Maybe Thin Lizzy or Blue Oyster Cult?  And it’s way too soon, but Jett may quite be the precedent for a future induction of P!nk.  Or even Jett’s previous band, the Runaways.

Their biggest threats: The most obvious one is Heart, but don’t overlook the roles of Deep Purple and Rush either.

In the end:  Being good time rock and roll will always make them popular on your party playlists, but it won’t get them into the Hall.  Not this time, at least.  Induction chances:  10%

 

So after much procrastination, I finally have my picks put up.  Some picks may be unpopular, but I’m going to stand by them.  And I’ll probably fall hilariously facedown with these picks, since I haven’t averaged better than 2/5 since 2009.  Time to wait and see.