After much procrastinating, it is now time to post
predictions, seed the nominees, and prepare to be drastically wrong. Without further ado, my predictions for the
Class Of 2015.
1. Green Day
Pop-punk band largely popular in the 1990s and early
2000s. Newly eligible.
Why they might make it: They were one of the three
major names that helped alternative break through the glass ceiling, all while
also enjoying a run of commercial success.
Additionally, they are well-connected with the powers-that-be at the
Foundation, and pretty much everyone agrees they are going to get in.
Why they might not: Despite the general consensus
that they’re going to get in, there isn’t nearly the same consensus that
they’re among the most deserving acts on the ballot. If this feeling is widespread to enough members of the voting
bloc, they might not make it. Also,
detractors of their music feel they can sum up Green Day’s entire ethos with
the opening line from “Basket Case”: “Do you have the time to listen to me
whine?” For naysayers, Green Day is the
music of spoiled, privileged millenials who don’t know what real hardships are.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Pearl Jam is on deck
next year, and they’re just as assured of getting in as Green Day seems to be
at first glance.
Biggest threats: Nine Inch Nails is a huge threat to
their chances, as is guitar driven blues outfit Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double
Trouble, with the Smiths in the mix as well.
In the end: Trust the connections. Green Day has been there for the Hall a time
or two, now the Hall’s going to be there for them. Induction chances: 80%
2. Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble
Blues-rock outfit from the 80’s. First time nominee.
Why they might make it: Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double
Trouble has been one of the biggest names touted as criminal omissions from the
Hall ever since they became eligible for the Class Of 2008. Music lovers have been chomping at the bit
to see these guys nominated. At
present, they rule the roost on the fan ballot, and as fellow monitor Donnie
and others (including myself) have noted, ever since the implementation of the
fan ballot, whoever tops the fan ballot has gotten inducted. Not necessarily causation, but it really is
eyebrow-raising correlation at present.
Why they might not: Initially, it was just Vaughan
nominated, and Double Trouble was added later.
There might still be some confusion on this matter, and that could
hurt. Also, a hefty part of their
catalog consisted of covers.
Whom they’d pave the way for: There are still a few
blues-rock pioneers and blues greats still waiting in the wings. Anyone ranging from Johnny Winter to Junior
Wells could pass through the gate that Vaughan and company could open up.
Biggest threats: The Paul Butterfield Blues Band are
the most direct competition, but modern guitar acts like Green Day and Nine
Inch Nails might also be a factor.
In the end: As Chuck D reminded us, the blues gave
birth to rock and roll, but rock and roll, and especially acts like Stevie Ray
Vaughan And Double Trouble is why the world gave a damn about the blues
again. This should prove impossible to
ignore. Induction chances: 75%
3. N.W.A.
Pioneer gangsta rap group.
Third time nominee, seeded #5 for 2013 and #9 for 2014.
Why they might make it: They’re pioneers. Straight Outta Compton is a landmark rap
album, and their subsequent albums, though few, were also hugely
successful. They were pioneers of
gangsta rap, which almost completely obsolesced the older style hip-hop of the
original hip-hop pioneers, as gangsta became synonymous with rap for a good
portion of the ‘90s. Also, as the
launching point for the solo careers of Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy-E, and even MC
Ren, and Yella, they could be considered rap’s first supergroup, or at the very
least, the rap equivalent of the Yardbirds.
Why they might not:
Quick, ask someone who hates rap (or at least did in the ‘90s) why they
hate(d) rap. That laundry list that is
their answer? Most of that traces
clearly back to N.W.A. Even if they
didn’t pioneer some of those aspects themselves, they did combine it all into a
blend that is the main exhibit for hatred of rap: self-gratifying, gratuitous
and prolific profanity; incredibly subversive lyrics that went beyond mere
wake-up calls of socially conscious folk and rock, eschewing civil
disobedience, opting instead for and glorifying bloody violence;
self-aggrandizement that made “cockiness” look like “self-confidence”; plus the
usual stock answers of how rap isn’t even music since what they’re doing
doesn’t constitute singing. And you
don’t even have to be a stereotypical stuffy, White, conservative Christian to
find that combination disturbing, or at the very least, inartistic.
Whom they’d pave the way for: The big ones are 2Pac
and the Notorious B.I.G., the martyrs and symbols of rap-gang warfare, but also
rappers like Ice-T and Snoop Doggy Dogg, plus the solo careers of most of the
members of N.W.A. themselves.
Biggest threats: There’s no other rap group on the
ballot this time, so no direct threats, but the funk of War might take away
from them.
In the end:
N.W.A. has been flying under the radar of most of the discussion this
year. Part of that has been due to
omissions from the ballot, some of that has been arguing about ballot
divisions. But a lot of that has been
people figuring without another rap act on the ballot, their chances are pretty
good. I’m inclined to agree. Induction chances: 70%
4. Bill Withers
Soul singer/songwriter.
First-time nominee.
Why he might make it: The Hall loves
singer/songwriters, and Withers fits the bill.
He’s clearly the pick of Nominating Committee member ?uestlove, and new
members tend to get names in during their first couple years. Lastly, Withers’ songs “Lean On Me” and
“Ain’t No Sunshine” are two songs that have the stood the test of time the best
out of possibly the collective catalog of the entire ballot (save, possibly,
for the heavily sampled “Good Times” by Chic).
Why he might not: As mentioned in the initial reaction to the ballot, Withers isn't the kind of performer one immediately thinks of when the term "singer/songwriter" is bandied about. Coupled with the fact that the Rock Hall has been rocky in its history of inducting soul music over the past decade, this adds an additional hurdle for Withers to clear. To top it all off, Withers himself hasn't appeared to be all that excited about the prospect being inducted, and the Rock Hall generally prefers to induct those who want to be inducted.
Whom he’d pave the way for: Four-time flop Joe Tex
may get another reconsideration if Withers can get in. It may also help other soul greats like
Billy Preston, Barry White, or Johnnie Taylor finally get recognized as well.
Biggest threats: War is every bit as funky as Withers
and more beloved by the classic rock crowd.
Chic is the R&B pet project for the NomCom, and for soul, the
Spinners are another, more commercially successful contender.
In the end: Admittedly, I was not on board with the
bandwagon that thought Withers would get nominated. Bill Withers hasn’t always gotten my vote on the fan ballot, but
he may be able to quietly sneak through.
Induction chances: 60%
5. Lou Reed
Singer/songwriter, former lead singer of the Velvet
Underground. Third nomination,
previously unseeded.
Why he might make it: Lou Reed is a figure that is
widely respected as an artist and innovator.
His songs have been covered in a variety of venues, he’s been called the
“godfather of punk,” the reverence for the Velvet Underground could be a
factor, and the fact he died this past year could all serve to finally push him
through.
Why he might not: How many solo Lou Reed songs can
you name, not including his work with the Velvet Underground or live solo
performances of same? His legacy rather
outshines his actual solo discography, and that’s a problem for an institution
about unquestionable musical excellence.
Whom he’d pave the way for: This one’s almost a
complete zilch, as Lou Reed was such a singular performer, that there’re few
who could be called his ilk, and of those who’ve not yet been inducted, Warren Zevon
may be the most likely candidate.
Biggest threats: Sting is his biggest threat, as he
would also be a double inductee, and there might not be two of those. For singer/songwriters, Bill Withers is the
biggest obstacle.
In the end: The death fairy can indeed be kind to
those whom the Hall loves. In this
case, I think the love will be there for Lou’s posthumous solo inclusion. Induction chances: 55%
6. Sting
80’s solo artist, former leader of the Police. First time nominee.
Why he might make it: Some of the power players at
the Foundation are almost more interested in landing the big names to draw
visitors to the museum in Cleveland than they are about the music, and Sting’s
the biggest single name on this ballot.
His commercial success track record is pretty solid to boot.
Why he might not: There’s a pretty wide consensus
among those who follow the Hall that Sting is nowhere near the most deserving….
In fact, he ranks dead last with a few people, including me. Additionally, he may have had a lot of hits,
but his biggest success has been in the Adult Contemporary charts, which is
borderline anathema to the Hall.
Whom he’d pave the way for: A former band member with
strong name recognition to be inducted for a solo career that many don’t feel
is worthy? As much as I feel he’s
worthy, Ringo Starr seems to be the obvious punchline for that one.
Biggest threats: Lou Reed is a strong threat for the
doubly-inducted honor this year. Green
Day is the other candidate that lists very strongly for both hit singles and
albums.
In the end: I originally wrote him off, and I really
still want to, but in my previous blog about trends, Sting rated highly in the
three currently prominent trends of being latter day, commercially successful,
and serious name recognition. That
makes it very likely that he can overcome his weaknesses of being a solo soft
rocker. Well, maybe not so much “very
likely” as “equally likely.” Induction
chances: 50%
7. Chic
R&B/disco group fronted by a crackerjack production
team. This is their ninth appearance on
the ballot, not seeded their first two times, seeded dead last (#9) in 2007, #7
in 2008, #5 in 2010, #10 in 2011, #12 in 2013, and #2 in 2014.
Why they might make it: After last year’s
disappointment, Nile Rodgers has been working hard to press the flesh and work
the social media to get his case for his group more widely known. Musically, their records were sampled far
and wide back in the early days of hip-hop, so the influence factor is definitely
in their favor. From a musical
standpoint, their bass and guitar lines are considered very tough to imitate or
duplicate. The men in the group were all production geniuses. Also, Nile Rodgers was on the Nominating
Committee back when the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame was first founded, so
politically, this an attempt to repay the favor to him. .
Why they might not: As Chandler Bing might say, could
the stars have aligned any harder for Chic than they did last year? Last year was the most golden opportunity,
the highest tide for Chic’s hopes for induction. Daft Punk cleaned up at the Grammys thanks to Nile Rodgers
handiwork on “Get Lucky.” Additionally,
there’s still the Chic Syndrome: solid instrumentation soured by laughable
lyrics. Lastly, as has been the case in the past, disco isn’t popular with the
voting bloc, or so it seems.
Whom they’d pave the way for: The love for Nile
Rodgers won’t readily translate to love for disco. The biggest likelihood is that the next two artists in the queue
for those with most nominations but not in will probably be revisited, which
means Joe Tex, and maybe even Chuck Willis.
Biggest threats: Chic has unexpectedly high
competition on the ballot this year.
The Spinners as an R&B group have more popularity, as do fellow
funksters War and Bill Withers.
In the end: The NomCom wants Nile in, and will get
them in at some point. Their direct
competition is the stiffest that it’s been in awhile. But with so many nominations, it’s a matter of time, making them
this year’s upset special. Induction
chances: 49%
8. Joan Jett And The Blackhearts
Harder-rock-but-not-quite-metal band from the ‘80s. Third-time nominee, seeded #13 in 2012 and
dead last (#15) in 2013.
Why they might make it: The biggest reason is probably Jett’s leading the tribute to
Nirvana at this past year’s ceremonies (“Hervana”, as Krist Novoselic called
it), singing lead on “Smells Like Teen Spirit.” Plus, they’re good time, fun rock and roll, and who doesn’t
appreciate that? And when an artist has
an anthemic rock and roll song, the artist has a tendency to get recognized,
and if they have a few hits aside of that, so much the better.
Why they might not: They made very little waves besides their one major hit, “I Love
Rock ‘N Roll”, and what they did have was largely covers (including said major
hit). The Hall Of Fame usually prefers
to honor originality. Also, if you
didn’t see Hervana live, but saw it on YouTube or HBO, Jett’s performance
looked and sounded awful, even worse than her tribute to the Dave Clark Five in
2008.
Whom they’d pave the way for: As well as the obvious Pat Benatar, they
might also clear the path for more classic rock acts with just a few, but
well-remembered songs. Maybe Thin Lizzy
or Blue Oyster Cult? And it’s way too
soon, but Jett may quite be the precedent for a future induction of P!nk. Or even Jett’s previous band, the Runaways.
Their biggest threats: Green Day, Stevie Ray Vaughan
And Double Trouble, and Nine Inch Nails are all powerful rock acts that could
split the ballot against Jett & Co.
In the end:
When, like last year, the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame fails to induct a
Black artist, accusations of institutional racism fly. This year, we’re gonna hear all about the
misogyny. Induction chances: 45%
9. Nine Inch Nails
One-man, industrial rock group. Newly eligible.
Why he/they might make it: Nine Inch Nails is the act
that really helped bring industrial music to a wider audience, which means a
lot with the Hall. In fact, the act
made Rolling Stone magazine’s list of Immortals, which practically guarantees
eventual induction.
Why he/they might not: Industrial may have been brought to the mainstream, but it has
never been fully embraced, not to the degree that grunge, rap, and alternative
have been. Its intentional cacophony
makes it a difficult style to want to honor and enshrine. This may be a problem.
Whom he/they would pave the way for: I’m not very
knowledgeable of my industrial, so I have no clue. If the members of Filter aren’t included with Trent Reznor, maybe
the doors would be opened for them.
Biggest threats: Fellow newly eligible Green Day is
their biggest roadblock, while Stevie Ray Vaughan and Joan Jett And The
Blackhearts are also threats against Nine Inch Nails.
In the end: People are watching curiously to see if
they pull off the upset and keep Green Day out, but I’m just not seeing
it. They’ll have to wait until 2017,
because the Hall will be too busy inducting Pearl Jam for 2016. Induction chances: 40%
10. The Spinners
Superstar Philly-soul vocal group from Detroit, Michigan. Second-time nominee, seeded #3 in 2012.
Why they might make it: The Hall has been strongly
populist in the past couple years, and the Spinners are the biggest singles act
on this ballot.
Why they might not: Soul music, soul groups
especially, have been very sporadic in their induction in the past decade. It’s a disturbing trend that will hopefully
be reversed soon, but for now, it’s bad news.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Classic soul is getting
thinner and thinner, so maybe they’ll go for the few-hit, but highly-respected
soul outfit Harold Melvin And The Bluenotes, or just lead singer Teddy
Pendergrass. Lou Rawls is another
possibility. Or they may go back to New
Orleans and go for the Neville Brothers..
Though still a couple years away, a Spinners induction could point to
the possibility of Boyz II Men getting in eventually, as well. And let’s add Billy Preston.
Biggest threats: Bill Withers is favored for soul,
Chic is a wild card among ‘70s groups, War is another ‘70s group that may
hamper things, and for classic vocal groups, the Marvlettes may also detract
from the Spinners.
In the end: I
refused to get my hopes up on their nomination, but they made it onto the
ballot. This time, however, my refusal
to hope is pretty well founded, I think.
Induction chances: 35%
11. The Marvlettes
R&B girl group that gave the Motown empire its first
number one hit single on the Hot 100.
Second-time nominee, seeded #6 in 2013.
Why they might make it: Anything Motown has a serious
shot. The Hall loves Motown, and really
helping make Motown a household name is strong credibility. Plus, in the history of the Hall, only two
years were without a strong presence of the ‘60s. The Marvelettes would be the best candidate for this slot.
Why they might not: The Hall loves Motown, but they
sure can take their sweet time showing it: Marvin Gaye, Smokey Robinson, and
the Four Tops all needed two nominations to get in, the Supremes and Martha And
The Vandellas both needed three, the Jackson Five came up four times before getting
in, Gladys Knight And The Pips took five, the Miracles needed a special
subcommittee to convene and break precedent to get them in, not to mention
twice nominated but still not inducted Mary Wells! Only the Temptations and Stevie Wonder got in on their first
nominations, both in 1989. (Also the
Isley Brothers and solo Michael Jackson, but both of whom are much better known
for their post-Motown work) Plus girl
groups also generally need a few nominations to get in, 2005 inductees the
Ronettes the lone exception. Lastly,
despite having a solid string of hits in the Top 40, they tend to be summed up
with their major hit, “Please Mr. Postman”.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Getting the Marvelettes
in might get the NomCom looking at Motown again, where we have Junior Walker
And The All-Stars and Mary Wells as the last two major ‘60s acts for the
family, plus a peek into the ‘70s shows the Commodores, solo Lionel Richie, and
possibly even solo Diana Ross. They also
might lead the way for other girl groups like the Chantels, Crystals,
Shangri-Las, even the Chiffons to get some consideration.
Biggest threats: The Spinners are the biggest direct
threat, and the Paul Butterfield Blues Band are a fellow ‘60s act that stand in
the way.
In the end: I’d love a class with Stevie Ray Vaughan
And Double Trouble, the Spinners, and the Marvelettes in it, but it’s too lofty
a goal to ever happen. We’ll be lucky
if we get one of those three, and the Marvlettes are the least likely of the
three. Induction chances: 33.3%
12. War
Latin-funk band from the ‘70s. Third-time nominee, seeded #7 in 2009 and
#12 in 2012.
Why they might make it: Cool
funk. Memorable classics like "Low Rider," "The Cisco Kid,"
and "Why Can't We Be Friends" are all pleasers that make them likely
candidates. Also, Eric Burdon would be
a multiple inductee, and the Hall loves to have multiple inductees.
Why they might not: Santana's already in. Can another Latin group make it? Also, innovation and influence are considered somewhat questionable. Plus, in comparison to other artists, and the politics of the Hall, they may just get lost in the shuffle.
Why they might not: Santana's already in. Can another Latin group make it? Also, innovation and influence are considered somewhat questionable. Plus, in comparison to other artists, and the politics of the Hall, they may just get lost in the shuffle.
Whom they’d pave the way for: The only Latin act that might garner some
attention following the induction of War would be Gloria Estefan/the Miami
Sound Machine, who are now eligible as well.
Classic rock acts with that indescribable, yet identifiable intangible
quality of coolness might benefit as well, and I’m thinking mainly Steppenwolf.
Biggest threats: Chic and Bill Withers are the most
direct threats, and the Spinners are a possible problem for War as well.
In the end: War is a band that a lot of people would
love to see get in, but it seems like for now, there’ll always be five or six
names that people will feel are more deserving or just prefer more, with War
getting lost in the shuffle. Seems like
it’ll be the case again this year.
We’ll see them on the ballot in three years again. Induction chances: 30%
13. Kraftwerk
European progressive act that pioneered electronica. Third
time nominee, unseeded their first time, seeded #9 in 2013.
Why they might make it: A truly innovative group,
they are partially responsible for a lot of electronica music today. Especially in the European club scene.
Why they might not: While the Hall Of Fame doesn’t discriminate
against acts from countries other than the US and UK, they do strongly favor
acts that were very popular in the U.S.A., which Kraftwerk was not. If a voting member isn’t too familiar with
their stuff, and sees five other names they like, they won’t bother researching
Kraftwerk further.
Whom they’d pave the way for: There’re a couple
avenues to go here. Fatboy Slim, Daft
Punk, and many more famous electronica acts are still a few years off. The Art Of Noise are a left-field
possibility, though possibly too much of a novelty act to get in. But Kraftwerk’s induction may help more acts
who were huge, just not in the States, get some recognition, such as Cliff
Richard And The Shadows, Status Quo, Johnny Hallyday, or Fela. Both paths are a bit of a stretch, but if
the road really dead-ended with Kraftwerk, they probably wouldn’t be worth
inducting anyway.
Biggest threats: As far as experimental goes, Lou
Reed is a bigger draw. For dance music,
it’s Chic.
In the end: Kraftwerk will probably need seven or
eight nominations before getting their proper recognition, much like the
Stooges or Black Sabbath. This is only
number three for them. Induction
chances: 25%
14. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band
Blues-rock band from the mid-‘60s. Fourth-time nominee, Unseeded the first time, seeded #14 each of
the past two years.
Why they might make it: They’re a formative
blues-rock act. Their sound is
considered to be a pioneer sound. A few
of its past members have some amount of fame to their own names. Also, they were name dropped by none other
than Jann S. Wenner as an act he’d like to see get in. If you don’t think that means something, you
don’t know the Hall.
Why they might not: They’re arguably the most obscure
name on this ballot, having no hit singles and no album making the top quarter
of the Billboard 200.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Like Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble,
this group could pave the way for blues acts to get in, like Junior Wells, Slim
Harpo, or even Albert Collins, if you want to go left field.
Biggest threats: Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double
Trouble are the obvious threat, and the Marvelettes are a more likely choice
from the ‘60s.
In the end: As much clout as Jann S. Wenner has, I
think he’ll have to continue to call this group an act he still wants to see
in, because it ain’t happening this time.
Induction chances: 20%
15. The Smiths
‘80s alternative rock group. First time nominee.
Why they might make it: The Smiths (and lead singer
Morissey) are a highly recognized and influential name in alternative music,
‘80s music, and ‘80s alternative music.
Additionally, as a soloist, Morrissey has a certain cache in a rather
niche market of Southwestern U.S. Latino teens.
Why they might not: ‘80s alternative just can’t catch
a break. The Cure couldn’t get in, the
Replacements couldn’t get in; despite Kim Gordon taking part in Hervana, Sonic
Youth couldn’t get on the ballot this time around.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Maybe Sonic Youth will
show up next year, maybe it’ll be the Pixies, or maybe they’ll retry the Cure
or the Replacements. Plus, Morrissey as
a soloist has a shot in the future.
Biggest threats: Green Day is the more likely
alternative rock act, Joan Jett And The Blackhearts are another ‘80s rock act
that could draw away votes, as well.
In the end: Until proven wrong, I’m just going to
keep assuming ‘80s alternative has little to no chance of getting in. I don’t know what would have to change to
turn that around, but I’m not holding my breath this time either. Induction chances: 10%
A bit later this year, but there you have it—my official
predictions for this year. It took a
bit of time to solidify them, but I think this is a solid guess. Not my ideal class, of course, but what I
feel is most likely. Hopefully we’ll
know in less than a month.
Pearl Jam is in two years (2016/17), not next year (2015/16) as you said, and that probably changes a lot with regard to first-time eligibles. Next year is A Tribe Called Quest/Alice In Chains/Black Crowes/Blur/Hole/Ice Cube/Kid Rock/Mariah Carey/Moby/Primus/Smashing Pumpkins/Ween. While that year has incredible depth (Primus and Ween won't get in since they're way too weird for the Hall and I sure hope Hole and Kid Rock don't), few of these guys seem remotely first-ballot to me. AIC will need to wait for Soundgarden, who will need to wait for Pearl Jam. Not to mention that they and Soundgarden were the most metal of the mainstream grunge acts which will hurt them since metal doesn't get much Rock Hall respect (while Nirvana aligned more with punk and Pearl Jam aligned more with folk rock/roots rock, which both get more respect). ATCQ and Ice Cube are considered 2nd tier rap acts and several 1st tier rap acts are not in. Black Crowes' roots rock style is something the Rock Hall would probably love, but they aren't truly considered iconic and I'm not sure they really brought roots rock back to the mainstream as SRV did with blues since Nirvana hit one year after 'Shake Your Moneymaker' and pretty much limited any non-alternative mainstream acts' influence. If the '80s Brit alternative bands like The Cure, Depeche Mode, and The Smiths still aren't in (and I agree Smiths won't get in) then Blur won't. I think now everyone in this genre has to wait for Radiohead. If Whitney Houston and Janet Jackson have not been nominated yet, Mariah Carey won't be first ballot (even if she now has more popularity and longevity than either). If Kraftwerk and Depeche Mode aren't in yet then electronica gets no respect and Moby would take way longer. That leaves Smashing Pumpkins as the only one of those I can even see as a possibility for first ballot, but they didn't have longevity/long-lasting acclaim and are pretty much reduced to two albums: "Siamese Dream" and "Mellon Collie..." with most of their later work being the butt of jokes. I think while most of the acts I listed will get in, and Smashing Pumpkins will get in first, I also think they'll be snubbed a few years a la RHCP due to never living up to their early potential. Next year will probably be when NIN gets in.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't want to be any snub in the 2017/2018 eligibility class however, when the list of newly eligibles includes: Arrested Development, Beck, Dr. Dre, Hootie & The Blowfish, Mary J. Blige, No Doubt, R. Kelly, Radiohead, Rage Against the Machine, Stone Temple Pilots, TLC, Tool, The Verve, Wallflowers. Yeah, a lot of those won't get in, but a lot of them will too.