Predictions for 2018: Bet (mostly) on White

After evaluating the nominees by merits and ranking them by personal preference, it is now finally time to list my predictions for the Class Of 2018 for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  The predictions are based on seeding them, ranking them by likelihood of induction, as determined by me.  In the past few years, the classic rock format has dominated the classes.  Bands whose heights of popularity were during the 1970s and 1980s, and were comprised almost entirely of White men have comprised at least half of each class's Performer inductees for the past few years.  I'm expecting that to continue, hence the subtitle for this entry.  Time to rank them in order of likeliness as I see them.  I could be wrong; I have been before.

1. NINA SIMONE

Jazz-influenced singer.  First-time nominee.

Why she might make it:  People from every walk of music praise her musical abilities, and acknowledge the huge impact she has had.

Why she might not:  She's generally considered more of a jazz singer, having little to do with any sub-genre of rock and roll music, however it may be defined.

Whom she'd pave the way for:  There aren't too many like her, so guessing that could prove tricky.  However, for the sake of discussion, maybe she'd pave the way for Odetta or someone more obscure but more in line with traditional conventions of rock and roll, like Sharon Jones And The Dap Kings.

Biggest threats: Her most direct competition is probably Sister Rosetta Tharpe, but could include the Meters and Rufus featuring Chaka Khan.

In the end:  When you're one of the few Black people, as well as one of the few women, on Jeff Ament's shirt, and when Dave Davies of the Kinks takes to Twitter to practically demand your induction, it's a pretty safe bet many other voters agree.  Odds of induction: 90%

2. BON JOVI

Pop-metal band most popular during the 1980s.  Second time nominated, seeded #8 in 2011

Why they might make it:  They dominated the fan vote, and so far, the top finisher in the fan vote to date has always gotten inducted.  They were also probably the most popular of all the nominees, and the Hall is getting more populist.

Why they might not:  They have almost nothing in the way of critical support.  Additionally, the band's transition towards more country-tinged music slowly erodes their rock credibility.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Def Leppard is another band of similar style that has been considered before, but not yet nominated.  The trend toward populism could cause some heads to turn that way.

Biggest threats:  Rage Against The Machine had a harder edge on their guitars, Judas Priest is another metal band with more credibility.

In the end:  Jon's come a long way since "R2-D2, We Wish You A Merry Christmas."  And I'm sure he'll be grateful if no one mentions it when he's inducted.  He was probably hoping nobody would even mention it this Rock Hall season, but his luck was not to hold out.  Anyway, the band won the fan vote.  Until the trend is broken, it's folly to bet against it.  Odds of induction: 85%

3. RADIOHEAD

Alternative rock act from England.  Newly eligible, first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They're quasi-nicknamed "the last important rock band," and have been widely celebrated in pretty much all of their output.

Why they might not:  They're a polarizing act.  It seems you either love them or hate them, regardless of how much you respect their art.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  The world of indie rock that is still known to the mainstream world somewhat could conceivably include Arctic Monkeys and Arcade Fire.

Biggest threats:  Rage Against The Machine is also newly eligible and could steal votes from them, Kate Bush and the Moody Blues are also known for being experimental.

In the end:  I think they're a little too well-loved by insiders to miss out.  Banking on this one.  Odds of induction: 80%

4. THE MOODY BLUES

Early prog-rock band.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  This is a group that people have been clamoring for years to get inducted  They are ranked somewhere near the top of most people's list of snubs.

Why they might not:  They've been snubbed because people with deep roots and long reach within the institution had been actively trying to make sure this band stays out.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  After the Moody Blues, the prog community is probably most staunch about King Crimson getting in, with Jethro Tull probably somewhere relatively close behind.

Biggest threats: The Zombies are something of a threat, being a fellow British act from the '60s.  I'd also put Radiohead as an act that could detract from their votes, albeit the effect might be slight.

In the end:  I overestimated John Q. Public's love for this band, though they finished in second place in the fan vote.  Still, I think the fellow musicians in the voting body are squarely behind this act.  Odds of induction:  70%

5. JUDAS PRIEST

Heavy metal band from the 1970s and 1980s.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They are early heroes of heavy metal, highly influential.

Why they might not:  They didn't have a lot of songs that are in the public consciousness, due to how they were promoted and marketed, and might be written off as a one-trick pony.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Motorhead is most likely next in line behind Judas Priest, and UFO and Uriah Heep probably would follow.

Biggest threats:  Bon Jovi is also considered a hard rock/metal band of sorts, and could divide the ballot against them.  Link Wray is also a heavily influential guitarist and could snag a few votes away, too.  Don't overlook the MC5 either, in this regard.

In the end:  Heavy metal is tricky to predict because it doesn't get nominated too often.  Metallica got in on their first try, Black Sabbath needed eight nominations, and Deep Purple needed a few as well.  Early metal tends to need multiple nominations, and I was originally going to seed them eighth or ninth.  But last minute, I'm placing them to make it this year.  Odds of induction:  55%

6. THE J. GEILS BAND
Blues-based rock group.  Fifth-time nominee, unseeded the first two times, seeded #3 in 2011, and #5 in 2017.
Why they might make it:  They've got Jann S. Wenner and Little Steven in their corner, which is big.  Little Steven has a pretty good track record of getting his nominees in, and every couple years or so, a pet act of Wenner's gets in, such as the Paul Butterfield Blues Band in 2015.  Additionally, they're a great live act with an electrifying frontman who has been on hand for the Hall's ceremonies a time or two.  Lastly, the death of the eponymous member this past year, Jerome Geils, makes them the Death Fairy pick.
Why they might not:  Despite all the people in their corner, they're a tough sell.  On paper, they just don't stack up as being very worthy.  They're an act that is easy to forget in the shuffle of everything, and that could hurt.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Since they were originally rooted in the blues, maybe getting them in will get the Hall to look at blues artists again and go for Johnny Winter, Otis Rush, Junior Wells, or Albert Collins.  It could even open a door for Southside Johnny And The Asbury Jukes. 
Biggest threats:  The Cars are a '70s and '80s act that had a bit of commercial success, too, as is Dire Straits, so they are the most direct competition.  Bon Jovi and Judas Priest are classic rock acts that could steal votes too.
In the end:  Lately, the Rock Hall's classes are pretty sparse on repeat nominees getting inducted.  We're due for a purge at some point, but with Bon Jovi topping the fan vote, it'll need to be a six-inductee class for this group to make it.  But I think they will this time.  Odds of induction:  50%

(6.5 SISTER ROSETTA THARPE)

(Gospel singer from the '30s and '40s)

(Why she might make it:  Widely considered a long-overdue candidate for the Early Influence category, it's encouraging to see her finally getting some attention.)

(Why she might not:  By nominating her in the Performer category, there is a chance that they are placing all their chips on inducting her as a Performer and won't hold discussion about her as an Early Influence.)

(Whom she'd pave the way for:  Gospel outfits like the Golden Gate Quartet, Swan Silvertones, and Five Blind Boys Of Mississippi could be considered as well.)

(Biggest threats:  Again, her nomination as a Performer could block this path.)

(In the end:  Everyone knows she belongs in this category.  She's heavily deserving, but will they do it?  Coin toss here.  Odds of induction as an Early Influence:  50%)

7. DIRE STRAITS
Rock band from England, prominent during the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  "Money For Nothing" is considered a monumental record, and was the first video that aired on the British version of MTV.  Add "Walk Of Life" and "Sultans Of Swing," and you've got a case really starting to build.
Why they might not:  Arguably, their unquestionable musical excellence doesn't go much deeper than those three songs, and some argue that they couldn't continue to build and get better after their first album.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Tough call, but this is the act most likely opening the door further for Boston and Foreigner, and maybe reignite the flame for a solo Sting induction. 
Biggest threats: The J. Geils Band, the Moody Blues, and the Cars are all the most direct competition, while Bon Jovi and Judas Priest might nab a few check marks that would otherwise go to these guys.
In the end:  If Jerome Geils hadn't passed away this year, this band would be seeded sixth.  That was literally the difference on this one, and they could still somehow sneak through.  Odds of induction: 49%


8. RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE

Politically charged nu metal band.  Newly eligible, first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  Tom Morello is on the Nominating Committee, which is going to carry weight with the voters.  Additionally, in the current political atmosphere, inducting a band that hates everything the current administration stands for would be considered the Hall's way of "sticking it to the man."

Why they might not:  The Hall has a gift for controversy, and this nomination reeks of "conflict of interest" and could even serve to make the band the new Chic.  Plus, nu metal may not be popular enough to get votes.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  It's hard to guess, but perhaps other acts like Slayer and Anthrax could get some attention in the wake of this band's induction.

Biggest threats:  Radiohead is the other newly eligible and most direct threat.  The MC5, whom Morello acknowledges their influence, could be more appealing to voters who think the Hall needs to be more chronologically correct with their inductions.

In the end:  They have a serious chance, but classic rock has been on a roll in the past few years, and Radiohead is the much safer bet between the two newly eligible acts.  So, much like Jane's Addiction, I'm not betting on this one.  But it's a tough cut.  Odds of induction: 45%

9. LINK WRAY

Early rock ‘n’ roll guitarist.  Second-time nominee, seeded #7 in 2014.

Why he might make it: Pioneered surf rock and hot rod rock.  Known as the inventor of the power chord, and he has scores of guitarists that have cited him as a tremendous influence.

Why he might not: Link Wray would rank right up there with Percy Sledge as a one-trick pony.  “Rumble” is the song that pretty much sums up his entire career.  He recorded a lot of records, and had a couple other lesser hits, but it all comes back to “Rumble”.  Voters might go for acts with a bit more substantive catalog of well-known songs.

Whom he’d pave the way for: Dick Dale would be a huge name to go after once Link gets in.  As far as ‘50s rock ‘n’ roll early guitar heroes, Buddy Knox is also still not in, so he could get a nod after Wray.  Otherwise, other rock guitar heroes, possibly Johnny Winter, would be on deck.

Biggest threats:  The Zombies are another classic oldies act that some would like to see in.  The MC5 and Judas Priest are also influential guitar-based outfits.

In the end:  He'd be a great addition, but it'll always be a tough go for him.  Odds of induction: 40%

10. THE CARS
New-wave rock band.  Third-time nominee, seeded #5 in 2016, and #8 last year.
Why they might make it: There aren't too many bands that can be innovative, widely acclaimed by critics, and popular with the listening public.  The Cars pulled it off and made it look effortless.
Why they might not: New-wave and synth-rock are pretty minimally represented in the Hall, and it's not a widely loved style by the powers-that-be therein.
Whom they'd pave the way for: An induction for the Cars probably won't bode too well for acts whose popularity was not in America, so don't expect a door to open for Gary Numan or Tubeway Army, but the strong synth lines could help connect the dots towards Duran Duran somewhere down the line.
Biggest threats:  The J. Geils Band are another classic rock band that enhance any good-time party.  Bon Jovi also fits that bill and could detract from this band, as could Dire Straits.
In the end:  On paper, they should have gotten in two years ago.  I guess, like War, they're having a hard time not being lost in the shuffle, which I think will happen again.  Odds of induction:  37.5%

11. EURYTHMICS
English synth-pop duo.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  Their sound is infectious and one of those that might contend for epitomizing the entire decade of the 1980s.  Additionally, Annie Lennox as both a musician and a public figure for femininity and feminism, makes them a formidable contender.
Why they might not: From Kraftwerk to fellow nominee Depeche Mode, the synth-driven sound of rock and roll has had a hard time getting recognized.  Really, the 1980s in general have trouble getting respect.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  I'd expect Annie to break down the door for more women.  Maybe we could finally push through Whitney Houston, Janet Jackson, Gloria Estefan And The Miami Sound Machine, as well as more synth-driven acts like Duran Duran.
Biggest threats:  Depeche Mode is the most obvious threat in their way.  I actually see Rufus featuring Chaka Khan as a bit of a threat for them too.
In the end:  The question keeps coming up from fellow watchers, "Who doesn't love Annie Lennox?"  Well, I don't.  I don't hate her, but I'm not a huge fan either.  All that aside, I see the classic rock steamroller continuing through and flattening their hopes.  Odds of induction: 35%

12. DEPECHE MODE

Synth-rock outfit from England.  Second-time nominee, seeded #11 last year.

Why they might make it:  Depeche Mode represent something pretty innovative and signature of the '80s, and despite never really grabbing the brass ring at any one time, they're recognized as one of the biggest names in their field for the entirety of their career and catalog.

Why they might not:  Their style is ultimately not that well-loved, especially by critics in the voting bloc.  Plus, with the Smiths, the Replacements, and the Cure all failing to get inducted in the past, it just seems like so much of the '80s is going to be kept out for awhile. 

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Simple Minds have been considered before, and an induction of Depeche Mode might give them a shot, as well as the Thompson Twins and Tears For Fears, and maybe even Dead Or Alive.

Biggest threats:  Eurythmics is the clearest direct competition.  Bon Jovi is the go-to act for the '80s.

In the end:  In a weird way, Depeche Mode can be described as a "big fish in a small pond," particularly when discussing their subgenre's representation in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  That's not saying they're small potatoes, just that what they bring to the Hall's table isn't getting asked to be passed around all that much.  And with a ballot this large and a small class likely, they'll drop through the cracks.  A lot of people like them, but can't find room for them this time around.  Odds of induction: 33.3%

13. LL COOL J

One of hip-hop’s very first solo superstars.  This is his fourth nomination, seeded #8 both in 2010 and 2011, and #4 in 2014.

Why he might make it: Hip-hop was dominated in the early days by groups: the Sugarhill Gang, Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five, Run-D.M.C., etc.  LL Cool J was one of the first solo superstars, especially in terms of crossing over to the pop charts and a wider audience.  Now, hip-hop is dominated by solo artists, because of rappers like him.  He also helped create the bridge that changed R&B into the more sultry style that it became in the ‘90s and still exists to this day.

Why he might not: He’s been the only hip-hop artist on a smaller ballot in the past, and he couldn’t get in then.  Also, his duet with Brad Paisley from years ago, "Accidental Racist” was eaten alive by critics, so the most recent flavor from him has been bitter to people’s ears.

Who he’d pave the way for: Other rap solo artists loom on the horizon: Ice-T is already eligible, and soon enough we’ll see Jay-Z, Ja Rule, and Snoop Dogg getting looks.

Biggest threats: No other rap acts on the ballot, unless you count Rage Against The Machine, but Rufus featuring Chaka Khan could draw a lot of the R&B votes away from him.

In the end:  Classic rock is dominating the conversation right now.  The comments about last year's ceremony--how the time spent inducting 2Pac was when a lot of people chose to use the bathroom--yields a bleak picture.  I think Nina Simone is going to be the sole, token "diversity" inductee this year.  Truth hurts.  Odds of induction:  30%

14. THE MC5

Hard-rockin' proto-punk band.  Third time nominated, Unseeded the first time, seeded #12 last year.

Why they might make it:  They're heavily respected for their innovation and influence.  Plus, who wouldn't want to see an MC5 tribute performance fronted by Fred "Sonic" Smith's wife Patti?  That could only be awesome.

Why they might not:  They were short-lived and didn't have much presence, and still don't have much name recognition with the general music-listening public.  Also, distortion as an effect is novel and artistic, but overall is a gimmick that doesn't break down walls for them.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  They could help pave the way for acts like Television and the also-once-nominated New York Dolls.

Biggest threats:  Strangely enough, the biggest competition is Rage Against The Machine, a band influenced in part by the MC5.  The Zombies are also a threat in their own right.

In the end:  It's nice to see them nominated again, looking forward to seeing their name appear again because this won't be their year.  Odds of induction: 25%

15. THE ZOMBIES

‘60s British Invasion rock group that prominently featured keyboards.  Third time they've been nominated, seeded #8 in 2014, and #14 last year.

Why they might make it:  Not only does the Rock Hall love the British Invasion, but so does the general public.  This is an inductee they’d celebrate together.  Also, one of the more distinct of the British acts.  Their sound was very unique and hard to confuse for anyone else.  

Why they might not: They were pretty short-lived, and have only a handful of songs that people remember, even though they love them dearly. It might just not be enough.

Whom they’d pave the way for: With Procol Harum missing out this year, an induction for the Zombies might rejuvenate that charge.  It could also lead to future nominations for Manfred Mann, Herman’s Hermits, the Spencer Davis Group, and maybe a left-field pick like the Troggs.

Biggest threats:  Those nostalgic for oldies also have Link Wray, the Moody Blues, and the MC5 to consider.

In the end:  One can never count the '60s out entirely, but with the Moody Blues on the ballot, a much more clear favorite, this is one not to bank on.  Odds of induction: 20%

16. RUFUS FEATURING CHAKA KHAN
Funk group from the '70s and early '80s. Second nomination, seeded dead last (#15) for 2012.
Why they might make it: They had an amazing run with styles that included roots music, funk, disco, and ballads. Plus, Chaka Khan is a well-known singer, so her name power could help.
Why they might not: R&B, particularly anything related to disco, has a difficult time getting recognized. Plus, some still worry that this would prevent a future induction for Chaka Khan as a solo artist.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Their varied history could be good news for acts like Delaney And Bonnie, as well as bands like Sade, but in reality, would probably only help other funk outfits, like the GAP Band, or the Average White Band.
Biggest threats: The Meters are the most direct threat, and LL Cool J could snare votes away.
In the end: If they could be nominated as just "Rufus," it would quell ambiguity and rumors of a joint induction.  But even without ambiguity, they still are a longshot.  Odds of induction: 16.67%


17. KATE BUSH
British songstress, known for experimental sonic styles. First-time nominee.
Why she might make it: Her work is highly acclaimed for its artistry and inventiveness. Additionally, she is quite influential to female musicians even to this day.
Why she might not: Her music is inventive to the point of being difficult for the masses to listen to. She didn't rely much on sales and did not tour much, so she's not a name people think of enshrining.
Whom she'd pave the way for: Artistic female musicians, like Tori Amos could come through the door Kate would open.
Biggest threats: For artistic women, Eurythmics are the most direct competition, arguably followed by Rufus featuring Chaka Khan.
In the end: I honestly doubt she'll see a second nomination any year soon, let alone getting in this year. Odds of induction: 15%


18. THE METERS
Funk band that did much session work, rooted firmly in New Orleans.  Fourth-time nominee, Unseeded the first time, seeded #13 in 2013, and dead last (#16) for 2014.

Why they might make it: The Hall loves the sound of New Orleans.  In 2011, they inducted Dr. John, and in 2012, they inducted Cosimo Matassa, an engineer who helped record and shape the New Orleans sound.  Additionally, the Neville Brothers have been starting to get some consideration as well, and two of those brothers were one-time members of the Meters.  This group might be able to ride those waves into the Hall this year.

Why they might not:  They’re one of the more obscure names on this ballot, never really breaking through, commercially speaking.  No real signature tune that they’re instantly linked to by John Q. Public. 

Whom they’d pave the way for: The sound of New Orleans could be carried on in the future with the Neville Brothers, Buckwheat Zydeco, and even Virginian Gary "U.S." Bonds, whose sound drew big from the New Orleans style.  Beyond New Orleans, the Bar-Kays would be another great instrumental group that also did session work.

Biggest threats: Rufus featuring Chaka Khan is the most direct threat, and LL Cool J is also a threat in the R&B arena.

In the end: This is one of those bands that will need the push from critics, historians, and industry insiders who aren't band members to get in. The voting bloc has increased about to where it was before they reduced it drastically, so there is a chance, but it is doubtful. Odds of induction: 12.5%

19. SISTER ROSETTA THARPE

Gospel singer from the '30s and '40s. First-time nominee.

Why she might make it: She commands a lot of respect in the music industry, and to some, basically invented rock and roll.

Why she might not: By now, everyone and their Aunt Ruthie has pointed out that she shouldn't even be a Performer nominee. Many suspect she will be an Early Influence inductee if she doesn't get the votes here, so why waste a vote?

Whom she'd pave the way for: She is such a singular figure, that after much thought, the only person thought of to follow is Big Mama Thornton.

Biggest threats: The biggest threat is the possibility of induction as an Early Influence. As far as other artists, possibly Nina Simone.

In the end: What is she even doing on the ballot as a Performer nominee, anyway? Odds of induction: 10%

20. CHIC

I know, they weren't even nominated, but it just doesn't feel like a Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame ballot without them. But with Nile inducted last year... Odds of induction: 0%

So there you have it. I'm predicting six inductees as Performers, the top six seeds, and probably one Early Influence inductee. Hope you enjoyed my breakdown of this year's nominees, and we'll know very shortly how our predictions play out.