Predictions on the 2019 ballot

Several others of the hobbyist community, those who follow the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, have already laid in their predictions.  Their predictions for who will be nominated and placed on the ballot, that is.  People generally are thinking along the same lines, predicting a lot of similar names, and now, I'm going to level a prediction.

After a season's abstinence from predicting the ballot, I'm back and formulating my thoughts.  Harboring no illusions of any great changes coming from that peculiar institution, the names to appear here will be pretty safe, standard picks.  I don't even have a left-field nominee this year, though there were a couple names I was considering for that purpose.  And after having spent this year revealing and explaining the selections of my passion project, the energy level is a bit low, so with any luck, this will be a shorter predictions post that what other hobbyist bloggers have written.  They mostly break down into segments.

First off are the young guns.  Normally, we'd be calling this the evaluation of newly eligible artists, but after last year, it needs to be a little more encompassing.  Sure, I still think we'll have two newly eligible artists on the ballot.  For starters, Beck has got to be a bit of a darling with the powers-that-be.  His music, his image, his quirks... they all scream "prime candidate for immediate induction," or at least they did as recently as ten years ago.  His induction no longer seems as sure, but his nomination should still be happening.  In the same boat, at least in my opinion, we find OutKast, the hip-hop duo whose pop sensibilities were just so infectious, so catchy, and crossed over so effortlessly, that getting them on the ballot also seems like a relative no-brainer.  However, I think we'll also see the return of our two acts that were newly eligible last year.  First off, the seemingly sure shot Radiohead should return after somehow missing out last year.  It's a tradition that includes Aerosmith and Queen, so Radiohead should be back for another pass, hopefully with less controversy involved.  Likewise, expect Rage Against The Machine, with guitarist Tom Morello on the Nominating Committee to be given a second shot at their induction.  Those four should be the primary representatives for the youngest generation of eligible artists.

However, it wouldn't be a Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame ballot these days without it being mathematically possible for there to be an entire induction class of classic rock staples.  To that end, I think we'll see Judas Priest return for the second time in a row.  The Hall may even wish to forgo nominating another prog-rock act to focus on representing metal a little more.  As the preferred classic rock act that missed out last year, they're a strong bet to return.  But there will also be some new names appearing on the ballot to maintain the classic rock funnel.  The big story to break this past year in our circle has been the revelation of how Irving Azoff has managed to work from an unofficial nomination seat and get his clients inducted.  Most are currently eyeing to see if the Doobie Brothers make the ballot.  Maybe now that we know about it, the spell will be broken, but it'd be foolhardy to bet against it at this point, so I'm going to predict them to be on the ballot as well.  Another classic rock name that should appear will be Bad Company, after a recent tweet with a picture of Paul Rodgers and Little Steven, it appears very likely that this will be the act that the bandanna man will fight for in the room.  And with classic rock rolling strongly right now, it's more a matter of "when" than "if."  Two more names that have been coming up quite a bit throughout the past year, though not from anybody close to the Foundation, have been Foreigner and Def Leppard.  It seems a little unlikely that there'd be two metal acts on the same ballot, but then again, ask any hardcore metal fan, particularly that of Judas Priest, and they'll tell you that Def Leppard and all of hair metal isn't really heavy metal at all.  We'll see if any of the people in the room agree with that sentiment, but either way, it's a possibility, as names from the Previously Considered column continue to end up with nominations, and even some with inductions.  As for Foreigner, we know the connection to the late Ahmet Ertegun, and also that Jann S. Wenner is in their corner, so it's wise to keep them in mind too.  Lastly, because they're clearly a priority right now, let's throw in the J. Geils Band to be nominated again, too.

The J. Geils Band also fit into the next category that isn't so much about their chances of being nominated, but more of names to be wary of, should they reappear.  What do the MC5, the Zombies, and Depeche Mode all have in common?  They've all been on the ballot for both of the past two years.  Lately, the trend has been that if an act has been nominated three consecutive years, the Hall is very serious about them, and wants them in, no matter what.  Chic notwithstanding, it's a list that includes Laura Nyro, Joan Jett And The Blackhearts, and the Cars.  So, I'm predicting them all in a manner of throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks.  Keep an eye on those names and see who comes back for the third consecutive nomination.

With the introduction of the Singles category this year, it seems unlikely that we'll see nominations for Chubby Checker, Procol Harum, Steppenwolf, the Kingsmen, or for Link Wray.  But where they're slamming the door on Link Wray, it could be the opening of the door for Dick Dale, another guitar legend with a group behind him that should be included in the nomination, but likely won't be.  Soul hasn't been fairing so well lately, but that doesn't stop the Hall from trying, so hopefully we'll have another nomination for the Spinners.  Post-punk has had a hard time getting in, but not too much trouble getting nominated.  Just a blind pick, let's predict Pixies to get a nod.  OutKast represent hip-hop ably, so I think LL Cool J will be getting a bye this go-around.  However, we could look at an electronic act that has been sampled in hip-hop and rap.  Kraftwerk has been playing a steady game of every other year lately. so I think this is their year to return.

Which brings us to the ladies.  Despite Steve Miller's plea and admonition, the Hall doesn't really work toward nominating more women.  They seem relatively impervious to social influence, thinking they did their part when the museum unveiled their "Women Who Rock" exhibit a few years ago.  But there will still be a few women on the ballot.  After missing out on being nominated last year, I think they'll give Janet Jackson another chance.  And they've been nominating Chaka Khan in some capacity the past few years.  I don't include her in the "three consecutive" paragraph above though, because it's been split between her solo career and her work with Rufus.  I'd like to see both of them get in, but I think it'll be the solo efforts that will be recognized this time.  And speaking of solo efforts, the final prediction to be nominated will be the solo career of Stevie Nicks.  She's already in with Fleetwood Mac.  I'm basing this prediction based on the public poll feature at the museum.  It's absolutely no guarantee, of course, but consider the fan ballot as a parallel.  When the top vote-recipient of the fan ballot gets inducted every year since the fan ballot was introduced, it's that correlation that begins to look like causation.  But now let's suppose the Hall is considering upping the game.  No longer do the fans have just a combined ballot, but what if they also have a combined nomination?  What if the top two vote-getters in the Hall end up being the "fans' submissions" in the boardroom, prior to the Feast Of The Giant Sandwich?  It just might be that this tool will be used to give the fans a say on the Nominating Committee.  Naturally, there's a world of difference between those who are able to make the trek out to the museum in Cleveland and being able to just vote online, which is where the parallel proves inexact, but could this be a further part of the hook to drive up the museum's attendance and bottom line?  I don't think that's entirely outside the realm of possibility.  It's a very tenuous prediction, but it's an alpha test both for the Foundation and for us hobbyists.  Maybe it will have no effect whatsoever, but let's predict her to make it and see if she actually does get nominated.

And by my math, that makes nineteen names, which is how big the ballot has been recently.  As I said, full of safe picks.  Nothing unexpected, and I don't think there's a name that isn't or won't be on someone else's predictions list.  But I'm okay with that.  As a disclaimer and reminder, these aren't necessarily the nineteen names I want most to see on the ballot (though now that I'm predicting them, the more I get right, the better I feel about my skills); these are just the ones that I feel will be nominated.  So, recapping, because I do that a lot these days:

Bad Company
Beck
Dick Dale
Depeche Mode
the Doobie Brothers
Foreigner
the J. Geils Band
Janet Jackson
Judas Priest
Chaka Khan
Kraftwerk
the MC5
Stevie Nicks
OutKast
Pixies
Radiohead
Rage Against The Machine
the Spinners
the Zombies