Inductee prediction for 2019

This isn't the post I wanted to make next, but with my schedule hectic as all get out, if I don't do it now, it'll never get done.  So let's just get to what everyone cares most about, and hope that the rest will be able to follow, preferably before the inductees are announced.

Who's gonna get in?  Even as I type this, I'm still waffling a bit on it.  The problem for me is that there are two artists on this ballot that I really consider the x-factors.  They're really not "loose cannons" on this ballot, but how they will sit with the voters is just too iffy for me to say with any real amount of certainty.  I'm prepared to end up going only one-for-five this year, because I'm really torn in a couple different directions, as is reflected in my percentages assigned this year.  Editing as I go, let's plant some seeds.


1. DEF LEPPARD
Hard-rock band from England. First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  The first and most apparent thing is that they're leading the fan poll.  It's not a guarantee so far as we know, but it's close enough to one at this point.  Whoever finishes first with the fans gets in.  Additionally, they're a name that everyone knows, and they fit the popular connotations of "rock and roll" rather easily.
Why they might not:  They are still associated with the hair-metal scene of the '80's, which the test of time has not been kind to.  Some may write them off as overproduced schlock masterminded by Mutt Lange.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  I actually like Poison, but there's no way an induction for Def Leppard will get them in.  In reality, Motley Crue will have the most to gain, and it will likely cause a look back and a rejuvenation to fight for Judas Priest.
Biggest threats:  Stevie Nicks is probably the closest thing to direct competition because their nominations both came from the same groundswell of support from the general public at the museum.  Other than that, the biggest threat to them is voters being fatigued with the classic rock inductions.
In the end:  "Fatigue with the classic rock inductions"?  Who are we kidding?  Odds of induction: 80%

2. THE ZOMBIES

‘60s British Invasion rock group that prominently featured keyboards.  Fourth time they've been nominated, seeded #8 in 2014, #14 for 2017, and #15 for 2018.

Why they might make it:  Not only does the Rock Hall love the British Invasion, but so does the general public.  This is an inductee they’d celebrate together.  Also, one of the more distinct of the British acts.  Their sound was very unique and hard to confuse for anyone else.  

Why they might not: They were pretty short-lived, and have only a handful of songs that people remember, even though they love them dearly. It might just not be enough.

Whom they’d pave the way for:  Assuming the Singles category isn't a death knell for Procol Harum, getting the Zombies in could help them.  It could also lead to future nominations for Manfred Mann, Herman’s Hermits, the Spencer Davis Group, and maybe a left-field pick like the Troggs.

Biggest threats:  The MC5 are really the only others from this era, but other than that, not a lot.

In the end:   Other hobbyists have concluded that the Zombies have little to divide the ballot against them, so this should be the express lane for them to get in.  I'm inclined to agree.  Odds of induction: 65%

3. TODD RUNDGREN
Musical utility-player.  First-time nominee.
Why he might make it:  Todd Rundgren has strong ties in the music industry.  His name is respected.  He can sing, play instruments, write, produce, engineer, innovate, and could probably manage, represent, distribute, promote, and publicize if he had the itch to.
Why he might not:  At least one journalist has stated that the difficulty comes when trying to make sure they're voting for his recording career if they do vote for him, and in that regard, they are tempted to err on the side of not voting for him.  Likewise, a lot of people have been murmuring that the Hall will just stick him in as an Award For Musical Excellence inductee, so why bother?  That kind of apathy could lead to him not getting votes.
Whom he'd pave the way for:  Good question.  Who is the next link when you get Todd in?  Maybe we look toward acts like Big Star next?
Biggest threats:  Roxy Music and John Prine both come from the same well of respect from deep within the industry.
In the end:  There's nothing that says that the respect from within the industry can only be shown to one nominee.  Voters get up to five votes, so Roxy and Prine could both get the votes too.  That said, there is at least some nominal effort to diversify the vote, so that is often how it'll end up playing out.  So, in that event, I think Todd has the edge.  Odds of induction: 60%

4. RADIOHEAD

Alternative rock act from England.  Second-time nominee, seeded #3 last year.

Why they might make it:  They're quasi-nicknamed "the last important rock band," and have been widely celebrated in pretty much all of their output.

Why they might not:  They're a polarizing act.  It seems you either love them or hate them, regardless of how much you respect their art.  Plus, after missing out last year when they seemed like a lock makes them a more shaky pick this year.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  The world of indie rock that is still known to the mainstream world somewhat could conceivably include Arctic Monkeys and Arcade Fire.

Biggest threats:  Rage Against The Machine is also from the same generation as them, while alternative acts like the Cure could inhibit their chances as well.

In the end:  They were a sure thing last year and missed out.  I'm already editing as I go, originally having put someone else in this spot first.  But, let's take a leap of faith and say missing out last year was a fluke, similar to Queen not getting in on their first nomination.  Odds of induction: 52%

5. STEVIE NICKS
Former member of Fleetwood Mac, nominated as a soloist.  First time nominated.
Why she might make it:  As a Fleetwood Mac member, her name has cache.  As a soloist, she's collaborated and otherwise worked with a lot of big names in the business.
Why she might not:  She's already inducted with Fleetwood Mac, and hopefully the entire voting body already knows that.  Her solo career just doesn't carry as much weight, and several believe it's not that remarkable.  Plus, with some of bigger songs being duets, it doesn't make her solo efforts come off that strong.
Whom she'd pave the way for:  The story is the women of the Nominating Committee really circled around Stevie Nicks as the one they'd push for, so if she got in, some of those other names they set aside, like Pat Benatar or the Go-Go's, could be next in line to be nominated.
Biggest threats:  Def Leppard is the other populist pick, and is beating her soundly in the fan vote.  Janet Jackson is another strong female soloist from the '80's.
In the end:  We're getting into really uncertain territory.  There are two scenarios I see happening, and they revolve seeds five through eight.  I think they are equally likely, but I'm splitting them up here, because it's the Rock Hall we're talking about.  Stevie is nowhere near the best choice to be the first female member of the Clyde McPhatter club.  I was hoping to make a separate entry on this topic before the inductees were announced, but sadly, I feel it will have to be titled "Who should the next female dual-inductee.  Odds of induction: 51%

6. JOHN PRINE
Folk singer/songwriter.  First-time nominee.
Why he might make it:  He's a musician's musician.  A songwriter's songwriter.  He has respect deep within the industry, and that could play huge, because industry people are a good chunk of the voting body.  In terms of gameplay, his album this year keeps his legacy fresh and vibrant with voters.
Why he might not:  He has almost no name recognition with the general public.  While ardent proponents of his induction say "Angel From Montgomery" is his iconic song, the problem with that statement is... it's not his version of it that is iconic (if that song is even iconic at all, which is also debatable).  This is about him as a recording artist, remember?  Members of the general public who do know his work (prior to his nomination), are usually people from metropolitan areas where radio formats are a bit more diverse and/or who make a point to seek out less mainstream artists.  Other than that, not many know his work.  Even members of the hobbyist community admit to have never having heard of him or never having heard a song by him before.  Additionally, as Joe Kwaczala put it, the Rock Hall is pretty inclusive of various genres and styles.. except for country.  And while Prine is considered a folk artist, a lot of his later works sound awfully country.
Whom he'd pave the way for:  There are other singer/songwriters who'd benefit, perhaps Gordon Lightfoot, or maybe he'd help some of the outlaw country artists, like Willie Nelson, get some consideration.
Biggest threats:  Todd Rundgren and Roxy Music are the other two acts with industry respect as deep as Prine, though Stevie Nicks does have a fair amount too.
In the end:  If there are only going to be five inductees, I think they'll cut it off at Stevie Nicks, and we'll have an entirely Caucasian class.  If there will be six, there are two scenarios I see possibly playing out.  That said, will there be five or six?   My prediction on that, and on John Prine's chances, are literally a coin flip.  Odds of induction: 50%

7. JANET JACKSON

R&B and dance music diva.  Third nomination, #3 seed in 2016, and seeded #16 for 2017.

Why she might make it:  She's the biggest singles' name on the ballot, and not just on the Hot 100 (the pop charts), but also on the dance, R&B, and Adult Contemporary charts.  This past year has also seen the revelation of how Les Moonves worked as a puppeteer to essentially kill her career for not meeting his level of satisfaction in apologizing for the infamous Superbowl incident.  Now that that's out, people are coming back to her side.

Why she might not: Ever since she was announced as a return nominee, people have been looking for reasons to keep her out.   Beyond that, there are still the two things might hinder her chances.  First, there's been a lot of speculation that all she has is because of her name and her brother's fame.  Some just think she'd be nothing if she weren't Michael's sister.  Second, naysayers say a lot of her records, particularly the earlier ones, have a very generic sound that is nothing special, even derivative, and that her producers make all the magic of her music.  This is augmented by the fact on a lot of her records, her voice doesn't come through very strongly, lost in the production effect.

Whom she'd pave the way for: The big hope is that getting Janet in will kick down the doors for Whitney Houston, and eventually Mariah Carey, TLC, Destiny's Child, and Beyonce.
Biggest threats:  The most direct competition comes from Rufus featuring Chaka Khan.  Stevie Nicks as a female soloist could draw votes away from her, and LL Cool J is another big name in the R&B world.
In the end:  I don't think the Hall will induct two women.  Some are saying there will be two, but I don't see it happening with this current voting bloc.  If there are six inductees, and Stevie Nicks is not one of them, then I think the other two after the first four seeds will be John Prine and Janet Jackson.  And it would be absolutely poetic, almost like a fairy tale, for karma to punish Les Moonves and exalt Janet Jackson with an induction into this institution.  Unfortunately, life isn't always rewarding.  There's hope, but it's a tough call.  Odds of induction: 49%

8. LL COOL J

One of hip-hop’s very first solo superstars.  This is his fifth nomination, seeded #8 both in 2010 and 2011, #4 in 2014, and #13 last year.

Why he might make it: Hip-hop was dominated in the early days by groups: the Sugarhill Gang, Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five, Run-D.M.C., etc.  LL Cool J was one of the first solo superstars, especially in terms of crossing over to the pop charts and a wider audience.  Now, hip-hop is dominated by solo artists, because of rappers like him.  He also helped create the bridge that changed R&B into the more sultry style that it became in the ‘90s and still exists to this day.

Why he might not: He’s been the only hip-hop artist on a smaller ballot in the past, and he couldn’t get in then.  Also, his duet with Brad Paisley from years ago, "Accidental Racist” was eaten alive by critics, so the most recent flavor from him has been bitter to people’s ears.

Whom he’d pave the way for: Other rap solo artists loom on the horizon: Ice-T is already eligible, and soon enough we’ll see Jay-Z, Ja Rule, and Snoop Dogg getting looks.

Biggest threats: No other rap acts on the ballot, unless you count Rage Against The Machine, but Rufus featuring Chaka Khan could draw a lot of the R&B votes away from him, as could Janet Jackson.
In the end:  If the Hall inducts six nominees, and Stevie Nicks is one of them, then I think LL Cool J will be the sixth, to have an African-American artist, in addition to the female Stevie Nicks to keep the class from being either all White or all men.  Janet Jackson would kill two birds with one stone, so without Stevie, it's Janet and John, in my opinion.  If Stevie is one of six getting honored, I think this rap superstar goes in too.  This is one of his better shots, but it comes with strings attached.  Odds of induction: 48%

9. ROXY MUSIC
Art-rock pioneers.  First nomination.
Why they might make it:  They are an incredibly innovative and influential group, helping to create art-rock.  Former member Brian Eno is a very hallowed figure in that particular section of the industry, and without a prog-rock name on the ballot, Roxy Music is probably the most attractive alternative for voters who are keen on getting prog inducted.
Why they might not:  The name Brian Eno is hallowed, but he wasn't with the group very long, and when you extract his production legacy from the equation, whether or not Roxy Music has enough in their favor to swing it is a more difficult question to answer in the affirmative.  Only a modest amount of commercial success, and few memorable songs.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  The induction of Roxy Music could encourage the Hall to go back and work more on prog-rock like Jethro Tull, or to maybe give someone like Kate Bush another shot.
Biggest threats: Devo has the same kind of gestalt as this outfit, and John Prine and Todd Rundgren have similar cache deep in the music industry.  Don't forget the Cure, who also have a cache with those members of the public who love the underground and alternative scenes.
In the end:  I originally had Roxy Music seeded #4 instead of Radiohead.  And I still think they could sneak in.  But when it comes to respect and strong ties in the music industry, it's Todd Rungren to win, John Prine to place, and Roxy Music to show, and there just won't be enough ballot space for the bronze.  Odds of induction: 45%

10. KRAFTWERK

European progressive act that pioneered electronica. Fifth-time nominee, unseeded their first time, seeded #9 in 2013, #13 in 2015, and #10 for 2017.

Why they might make it:  Slowly but steadily, people are waking up and realizing just how big of a deal Kraftwerk really is, not just for dance music, but also hip-hop and the entirety of the rock 'n' roll diaspora.  At this point, we can probably say it's not a matter of "if" but "when."

Why they might not: While the Hall Of Fame doesn’t discriminate against acts from countries other than the US and UK, they do strongly favor acts that were very popular in the U.S.A., which Kraftwerk was not.  If a voting member isn’t too familiar with their stuff, and sees five other names they like, they won’t bother researching Kraftwerk further.

Whom they’d pave the way for: There’re a couple avenues to go here. Fatboy Slim, Daft Punk, and many more famous electronica acts are still a few years off.  The Art Of Noise are a left-field possibility, though possibly too much of a novelty act to get in.  But Kraftwerk’s induction may help more acts who were huge, just not in the States, get some recognition, such as Cliff Richard And The Shadows, Status Quo, Johnny Hallyday, Fela, or even Ricky Martin in the future.  Both paths are a bit of a stretch, but if the road really dead-ended with Kraftwerk, they probably wouldn’t be worth inducting anyway.

Biggest threats:  Dance music has Janet Jackson and Rufus featuring Chaka Khan.  European stylings show Roxy Music, and experimentation makes Devo a possibility to divert votes away from the Germans.

In the end:  Their cache grows, because with each nomination, more and more people discover this outfit and realize just how important they were.  Unfortunately, I think there are too many semi-direct competitors for them to punch through this time.  If the Hall really wants Kraftwerk in, they'd better start getting them on the ballot in consecutive years.  Odds of induction: 40%

11. RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE

Politically charged nu metal band.  Second nomination, seeded #8 last year.

Why they might make it:  Tom Morello is on the Nominating Committee, which is going to carry weight with the voters.  Additionally, in the current political atmosphere, inducting a band that hates everything the current administration stands for would be considered the Hall's way of "sticking it to the man."

Why they might not:  The Hall has a gift for controversy, and this nomination reeks of "conflict of interest" and could even serve to make the band the new Chic.  Plus, nu metal may not be popular enough to get votes.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  It's hard to guess, but perhaps other acts like Slayer and Anthrax could get some attention in the wake of this band's induction.

Biggest threats:  Radiohead is their contemporary and most direct threat.  The MC5, whom Morello acknowledges their influence, could be more appealing to voters who think the Hall needs to be more chronologically correct with their inductions.  Don't overlook LL Cool J who raps much more solidly and consistently than Zac De La Rocha
In the end: This ballot isn't nearly as stacked with classic rock names as last year's, or the previous two before that, so it's a bit more of a mad scramble, and they could slip through.  But I'm betting against that from happening.  Odds of induction: 35%

12. THE CURE

New-wave band that really helped ignite and fuel the independent label and underground music scenes.  Second nomination, seeded #2 in 2012.

Why they might make it: They’re artistically revered, with songs like “Lovesong” and “Friday, I’m In Love,” and they had just enough commercial success to gain a nod of approval from the mainstream crowd.  They’re considered hugely influential, and pretty innovative, too.

Why they might not:  '80's alternative just cannot catch a break.  One would think that eventually one of them has got to punch through, but it hasn't happened yet.  Plus, not everyone is going to be a fan of the emo style they helped create.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The Smiths and Sonic Youth.  And Pixies, and possibly the Replacements too.  Plus, a number of influential indie scene rock acts.  Plus, possibly for more new-wave acts as well.
Biggest threats:  Roxy Music and Devo have similar legacy arcs, as does Kraftwerk.  Don't forget Radiohead and Rage Against The Machine as darlings of the alternative scene, too.
In the end:  The struggle will continue.  Maybe it will be the Cure one day who breaks through first.  But that day won't be today... this year, that is.  Odds of induction: 30%

13. RUFUS FEATURING CHAKA KHAN

Funk group from the '70s and early '80s. Third nomination as a group, seeded dead last (#15) for 2012, and #16 last year.

Why they might make it: They had an amazing run with styles that included roots music, funk, disco, and ballads. Plus, Chaka Khan is a well-known singer, so her name power could help.

Why they might not: R&B, particularly anything related to disco, has a difficult time getting recognized. Plus, some still worry that this would prevent a future induction for Chaka Khan as a solo artist.

Whom they'd pave the way for: Their varied history could be good news for acts like Delaney And Bonnie, as well as bands like Sade, but in reality, would probably only help other funk outfits, like the GAP Band, or the Average White Band.

Biggest threats: Janet Jackson is the most direct threat, and LL Cool J could snare votes away.

In the end: If they could be nominated as just "Rufus," it would quell ambiguity and rumors of a joint induction.  But even without ambiguity, they still are a longshot.  Odds of induction: 25%

14. THE MC5

Hard-rockin' proto-punk band.  Fourth time nominated, Unseeded the first time, seeded #12 for 2017 and #14 last year.

Why they might make it:  They're heavily respected for their innovation and influence.  Plus, who wouldn't want to see an MC5 tribute performance fronted by Fred "Sonic" Smith's wife Patti?  That could only be awesome.

Why they might not:  They were short-lived and didn't have much presence, and still don't have much name recognition with the general music-listening public.  Also, distortion as an effect is novel and artistic, but overall is a gimmick that doesn't break down walls for them.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  They could help pave the way for acts like Television and the previously nominated New York Dolls.

Biggest threats:  Strangely enough, the biggest competition is Rage Against The Machine, a band influenced in part by the MC5.  The Zombies are also a threat in their own right.

In the end:  It's nice to see them nominated again, looking forward to seeing their name appear again because this won't be their year.  Odds of induction: 20%

15. DEVO

Experimental art-rock band.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  The Hall loves creative risk-takers, and Devo are certainly that.  While they have a definite signature to their music, their willingness to try new directions is the kind of thing that the Hall would really love to include.

Why they might not:  Despite having as many hits as they did across the dance, album rock, and even pop charts, they're still widely regarded as a one-hit wonder.  Such is the blessing and curse of the iconic status of "Whip It."  Also, with the outfits they're famed for wearing, they might just be a little hard for some to take seriously.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  It's hard to say.  Maybe Kate Bush.  Maybe avant-garde outfits like They Might Be Giants.   Maybe this is just an act you want in because there's no real equivalent band who will ever come up in discussion.  

Biggest threats:  Roxy Music is an art-rock powerhouse that stands in the way.  The Cure have that underground cache as well.

In the end:  I just think it'll take a few ballots for them to be seen as more than just the band that did "Whip It" and seen as true artists.  That level of recognition won't come this year.  Odds of induction: 15%

And with that, I have all the seeds in place.  Just to clarify:  I think the top four seeds are the ones to get in in any event.  The question then becomes what then if there are five or six.  If five, we'll have an all-White class, I would predict.  If 6, it really becomes a coin flip if I think the final two will be LL Cool J and Stevie Nicks or the combination of John Prine and Janet Jackson.  Just don't see two women getting inducted.  It'd be nice, but I don't see it.  I don't like hedging my bets like this, but I really can't make up my mind which scenario I think is most likely to occur, so I'm letting all of that influence my seeding and percentages.  Hope you enjoyed reading them.  As always the Comments section is open.  Otherwise, time to wait and see what comes to pass when the inductees are announced.