Prediction for the Class Of 2021

 Coming now to the main event, predicting who will be inducted.  We've examined the merits, as well as the pleasure, and now it's time to predict who makes the cut.  As many have said, it's a great ballot, and a shame that we have turn away the majority of them.  As a community, we have been saying it's almost impossible to have a bad class from this batch.  Honestly, that makes me reel a little, because we said the same thing about the ballot for the Class Of 2016.  We got a good class, but one that was a little too homogeneous, and a little socially tone deaf, to be honest.  The Hall almost made it mathetmatically impossible to duplicate that level of letdown, but as Eddie Trunk demonstrated when he filled out his ballot, it is still possible.  The fun thing about the predictions is that I can now work in the politics of the Hall, because that deals more with the "will" as opposed to the "should" of it all.  So it is with that sense of optimistic trepidation, I proceed to predict the inductees for the Class Of 2021 for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.

1. TINA TURNER

Rock and roll singer, previously inducted in the duo Ike And Tina Turner.  First-time nominee as a solo artist.

Why she might make it: She has an amazing legacy as a singer and an all-around entertainer.  Her comeback as a soloist in the 1980s made the world forget she had been in a duo, and she is well-connected in the industry.

Why she might not:  Her "imperial reign" as a solo singer was not terribly long, and the music from that time, except for a few songs, hasn't aged the greatest.  Some even say that her most important work was in the duo, not in the '80s.  

Whom she'd pave the way for:  Though stylistically different, an induction for Tina could indicate possibilities for someone like Tracy Chapman.  It will hopefully also get the Hall to look at more women who would make great dual inductees, like Diana Ross.

Biggest threats:  Carole King is the other woman vying for a second induction after being inducted with her ex-husband in the early '90s.  Chaka Khan and Mary J. Blige could also steal away some votes from her, as could Dionne Warwick.

In the end:  Between the documentary, the ceiling shattered by Stevie Nicks, the outcry for representation, and her connections in the industry (even in the Hall, she was at those early ceremonies, folks), it's happening.  A storybook coda, but maybe not quite epilogue for this legend.  Odds of induction: 95%

2. CAROLE KING

Iconic singer/songwriter, previously inducted as a Non-Performer for the songwriting duo of Gerry Goffin & Carole King.  Second nomination as a solo artist; her first nomination was befoore I'd even heard of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, so of course she's previously unseeded.

Why she might make it:  She is a legend, with just about every presitgious honor the music industry could bestow upon her.  Her songwriting skill is legendary, and her songs have stood the test of time.

Why she might not:  Some don't think her landmark album Tapestry is enough, and that album is the sum total of her credentials, despite how many other hit albums and songs she's had.  Additionally, there are those who still feel that dual inductions are redundant and overkill, despite the two dozen such occurrences there already are.  Plus, the Hall has a bad habit of digging its heels at times and doubling down when it shouldn't.

Whom she'd pave the way for:  A revisit to '70s singer/songwriters could probably get the Hall to finally nominate Carly Simon or Jim Croce, maybe even Don McLean or Anne Murray.  A little outside-the-box thinking could also show that Dolly Parton could follow behind her.  Even further away from the box, maybe inducting Carole in a second category could get another nomination for King Curtis, but this time include His Noble Knights in the nomination.

Biggest threats:  Tina Turner is the other woman vying for a second induction after being inducted with her ex-husband in the early '90s.  The Go-Go's are also well-reputed for writing their own music, and Dionne Warwick is another Oldies artist that could be enshrined this year.  And don't overlook Kate Bush or Todd Rundgren as competent singer/songwriters as well.

In the end:  In my opinion, Carole King should have been the first woman inducted twice into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame and the first person inducted in two categories (and Ringo should have been inducted as a Performer, but I've tilted at that windmill enough for now), and they both should have happened before Y2K.  If Tapestry is enough to get the producer of that album inducted--and sure he's done other stuff, but his induction package focused on that outing--then it is damn well sufficient to induct the artist who wrote and recorded it--and she had several more commercially respectably successful albums besides.  And it's gonna happen.  Odds of induction: 90%

3. THE GO-GO'S

All-female rock and roll band.  First-time nominee

Why they might make it:  They've been gaining momentum over the past couple years as the muscle of Rolling Stone has atrophied.  Their achievement of the first all-female rock band to have a #1 album is a massive accomplishment, and they are a trailblazing band, both in terms of breaking the glasss ceiling and in bringing post-punk sensibilities to the mainstream.

Why they might not: Because the height of their popularity was short-lived, they might be seen as not having done enough.  Plus, the old guard at the Hall still have a mild distaste for the decade of the '80s, to say nothing of the fact they don't get along with those still cozy with Jann S. Wenner.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  All-girl bands like Bikini Kill or the Bangles might be next in the queue.  You could also look to post-punk acts like Sonic Youth or X.

Biggest threats:  Sonically, Devo is the most similar to them and could nab a few votes that might otherwise go to the Go-Go's.  The New York Dolls are a punk act that could detract from a punkish sounding post-punk band.  Tina Turner is another solid figure of the '80s, and Carole King has a pretty strong reputation for the creation of her own music.

In the end:  The Go-Go's are one of the bands the Hall needs the most, especially in the context of what John Sykes says his vision for the future of the Hall looks like.  I think there will be enough voters who concur with that sentiment.  Odds of induction: 75%

4. FOO FIGHTERS

Hard-rock band.  Newly eligible, and thus first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They're a hard rock band in the tradition of post-British Invasion rock.  Additionally, who doesn't love Dave Grohl?

Why they might not:  Their candidacy is reminiscent of Green Day's back in 2015: a newly eligible solid rock band with steady output, hit songs, acclaim, and that has a good relationship with the Hall... but aren't really the most deserving act on the ballot.  They're seen as having helped with the continued perpetuation of rock and roll, but not so much in helping the evolution of the art.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Most of the acts they'd open the door for aren't eligible yet: big name rock bands like the White Stripes, Franz Ferdinand, and Queens Of The Stone Age.

Biggest threats:  Rage Against The Machine is another '90s rock act with a member on the Hall's Nominating Committee.  Iron Maiden is another strong name for harder rock.

In the end:  It's who you know and who knows you.  The Hall will likely have three new members of the Clyde McPhatter club this year.  Still, it's not as strong a lock with these guys.  Odds of induction: 60%

5. TODD RUNDGREN

Musical utility-player and producer extraordinaire.  Second-time nominee, seeded #3 for 2019 and #13 for 2020.

Why he might make it:  Todd is well-connected in the industry, with strong ties that reach pretty far.  He sings, plays instruments, writes, produces, and even innovates listening opportunities.

Why he might not:  The Hall loves those who love them, and Todd does not love them.  Additionally, those who want the Hall to rectify the backlog want the Hall to induct Todd either as a Non-Performer for his production wizardry, or Award For Music Excellence as an umbrella for his production, musicianship, side projects, and all-around innovation--mostly just to get his name off the ballot.  By not voting for him, those voters are trying to force the Hall's hand on the matter.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  He doesn't open up too many tributaries, but maybe others that are well-loved within the industry have a shot, like Big Star, or a second nomination for John Prine down the line.

Biggest threats: Carole King is the bigger name for singer/songwriters.  Kate Bush and Devo are also well-known for sonic experimentation.

In the end:  Based on what was said about Judas Priest's past nominations, it can be extrapolated that Rundgren's third consecutive nomination is because each time he's come close.  Third time should be the charm.  Odds of induction: 55%

6. JAY-Z

Rapper, producer, all-around entrepreneur.  Newly eligible, first-time nominee.

Why he might make it:  Quite possibly the biggest name in the entertainment industry over the past twenty-five years not named Beyonce.  He is influential, creative, makes amazing music, and just carries an all-around cache to his name.  In short, too big to ignore.

Why he might not:  There are actually a few reasons.  His business and brand can be interpreted to symbolize the death of a music industry where musicians didn't have to have side hustles and endorsement deals to make a living, and the Hall might be resentful of that.  The ceremony's in Cleveland, and the Hall's schedule before the global pandemic was almost certainly tailored to induct Jay-Z in his hometown of New York City on his first year of eligibility.  Now that that's out the window, they may wish to induct him in the Big Apple rather than on his first year of eligibility.  Lastly, his "Hova" persona presents as being as detached and uncaring as the real Jehovah was thought to be by the Israelites while they wandered in the desert.  The Rock Hall is an institution that wants inductees who play ball with them.  Even when he has played ball, the result was one of the standards of bad induction speeches, until the 2016 induction of Steve Miller, at least.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  Eminem is newly eligible next year and was considered a gimme at one point.  It'll be interesting if the Hall goes back for the solo careers of rappers like Chuck D, Dr. Dre, or Ice Cube as well.

Biggest threats:  LL Cool J is another rapper on the ballot, and Mary J. Blige occupies a lot of the same space as Jay-Z, too.  Foo Fighters are the other newly eligible act, and Todd Rundgren is a musician and production wizard too.

In the end: Okay, this is where it gets convoluted.  Whether or not Jay-Z gets inducted this year, in my opinion, will depend on whether we can realistically expect herd immunity by the time of the ceremony.  The Hall won't want to do an event that isn't packed due to social distancing requirements.  They'd rather do another documentary induction like they did for 2020.  And the Hall has made it clear that the next live induction ceremony is going to be in Cleveland, regardless of how long it takes for that to happen.  But if they are able to have a live, packed ceremony in Cleveland this year, I think they will do something extremely unusual: they will announce Jay-Z as a top finisher, but will defer his induction to 2022 (possibly at his request), so they can do what they planned to all along, while also avoiding the backlash that not inducting Jay-Z immediately would otherwise likely have.  In other words, that's how they'll have their cake and eat it too.  However, if they cannot do a live ceremony, and have to do the documentary induction again, I think they'll just induct him this year, because they won't want to defer his induction more than one year.  The question is, taking into account all the work crews involved in making it happen, having a general admission section, and even having a week or so in Cleveland to hype up the event, thus having to figure in herd immunity in the state of Ohio--does the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame believe enough people will be vaccinated to have a safe, profitable event in Cleveland this year?  I think they'll err on the side of caution once more, do another documentary, and act so as not to have to worry about whether the Carters would deign to make appearances in Cavalier country.  Which means he'll be enshrined this year.  Odds of induction: 52%

7. DIONNE WARWICK

Female pop singer with a decades-spanning career.  First-time nominee.

Why she might make it:  She has a lengthy career, has worked with a lot of big names, and is having a huge resurgence in popularity due to Twitter.  The Hall does like to strike while the iron is hot.

Why she might not:  Most of her big hits were either hits on the Adult Contemporary charts, or could have been.  Songs she made popular could have fit very comfortably on The Lawrence Welk Show back in the '60s, which is to say some have trouble considering her all that "rock and roll."  For crying out loud, even Perry Como covered "That's What Friends Are For."

Whom she'd pave the way for:  An induction for Warwick would probably lead to the induction of the songwriting duo of Burt Bacharach & Hal David in the Non-Performer category.  Stylistically, she could help Roberta Flack or Sade get some notice.  Because of her collaboration, she could help the Spinners get nominated again, or maybe get nominations for other women of the earlier years, like Connie Francis.

Biggest threats:  Carole King's singer/songwriter catalog has a very soothing style not unlike Dionne's, making her direct competition.  Chaka Khan is also close, in terms of space occupied.

In the end:  It'll depend on how close the voting tallies go.  Between first nominations being the best chance in general, and the internet being a fickle culture that can't guarantee she'll still be the Queen Of Twitter next year, this is maybe her only real shot.  If there's a live event, you can bet Stevie, Elton, and Gladys would all show up to sing "That's What Friends Are For" onstage with her, as one of those moments that only the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame can make happen.  Will it?  Even if there isn't a live event, they may want to just usher her in.  It's a split decision.  Odds of induction: 50%

8. LL COOL J

One of hip-hop's first solo superstars. Sixth nomination, seeded #8 in 2010 and 2011 each, #4 for 2014, #13 for 2018, and #8 again for 2019.

Why he might make it:  He's a legend in rap music, paved the way for other rappers to make it big, while making it big himself.  He was the original mold for the male braggadochio show that rap was and still is, for better or worse.

Why he might not:  He just can't seem to clear the bar.  Rappers he helped make possible are in the Hall now and he's not.  It's like he passed the torch and got left out in the cold as a result.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  He could help clear the path for others like Ice-T and Snoop Doggy Dogg at some point.

Biggest threats:  Jay-Z is the clear and present competitor.  Mary J. Blige could also steal away a lot of votes from him too.

In the end:  Remember that scenario I posited earlier with Jay-Z?  If there is a live ceremony this year, and they defer Jay-Z's induction until 2022, the Hall won't want to keep falling behind on inducting rappers.  That's really the only way I see LL Cool J making it this year: at a live ceremony in Cleveland.  They could represent hip-hop with Blige as well, but LL has been waiting longer and has been let down harder more often.  But I'm betting he'll be let down again when they do another documetnary and let Jay-Z in this time, and not him.  Hard to say though.  Odds of induction: 48%

9. DEVO

Post-punk, art-rock band from Ohio.  Second nomination, seeded dead last at #15 for 2019.

Why they might make it:  The Hall loves to reward artistic creativity, and these guys had it.  Addtionally, if they can pull off a live ceremony in Cleveland this year, they'll want native Buckeye Staters there to make it more meaningful.

Why they might not:  They might be a little too far out there for some, and a one-trick pony to others.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  They might pave the way for an avant-garde act like They Might Be Giants to get inducted.  Their music is fun at parties too, so maybe acts like the B-52's or Violent Femmes.

Biggest threats:  The Go-Go's are the most sonically similar to Devo.  Kate Bush is also uniquely artistic, as is Todd Rundgren.

In the end:  Like LL Cool J, a live ceremony in Cleveland is the only scenario in which Devo gets in this year.  And I'm thinking nope.  Odds of induction: 45%

10. IRON MAIDEN

Heavy metal band most popular during the 1970s and '80s.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  Heavy metal is a genre that many feel is in sore need of greater presence in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, and voters might rally to them.  And who doesn't want to see Eddie on the stage, right?

Why they might not:  The Hall just can't seem to stop doing metal dirty.  Two misses for Judas Priest, one for Motorhead, eight nominations for Black Sabbath before getting them in, and Iron Maiden only now nominated.  Metallica's waltzing right in is about the only real moment of ease for metal getting in.  Also, they're a band you've heard of, but most probably can't name more than a couple songs they did.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  The field of metal is pretty open.  An induction for Iron Maiden could ramp up momentum for Judas Priest again, or maybe open the door for Pantera or Megadeth, just to name two of the more obvoius examples.

Biggest threats:  Rage Against The Machine is the most metal of the other nominees.  Foo Fighters are hard rock, and the New York Dolls are driving punk.  All can make competition for this band.

In the end:  It's weird to see me seed them this low.  My prevailing theory was previously, "If you want to assure that a white rock band gets in, make them the only white rock band on the ballot."  Iron Maiden is not the only such act on the ballot, but there are few enough of them that the rockist contingent will have no trouble coalescing in unity behind the same five acts, for the most part.  That could spell trouble for those who are expecting this class to embrace the idea of representation mattering. Despite haunting echoes of the ballot for the Class Of 2016, the promise of thinking and moving forward from John Syke,s and the apparent listening by the Nominating Committee to the outcry from those of us who've been calling for wider representation in the Hall both have me thinking in won't be a repeat of 2016, and that metal will indeed be done dirty again.  We'll see though.  Odds of induction: 40%

11. CHAKA KHAN

R&B songstress, former lead singer of Rufus.  Third nomination as a solo artist.  Seeded #11 for 2016 and #17 for 2018.

Why she might make it:  She has a long career as a singer with many strong ties in the music industry.  Additionally, her preseence on The Masked Singer has sparked a strong amount of support for her.

Why she might not:  Her solo career might be a little too easy listening for some voters, and those who think a person should only be inducted once are more likely to withhold support in favor of voting in Rufus the next time they are nominated.  Still others just want her to be inducted in the Award For Musical Excellence category as a catchall for everything Chaka and call it done.

Whom she'd pave the way for:  She could help get more of the classic disco acts recognized, ranging from Gloria Gaynor to KC And The Sunshine Band, and she could also clear the path for Mariah Carey or Celine Dion.

Biggest threats:  Dionne Warwick is the most similar to Chaka in terms of sound, and Mary J. Blige owes a lot to Chaka but could steal votes from her.  As could Tina Turner.

In the end:  I genuinely hate the idea of giving Chaka Khan an Award For Musical Excellence induction.  Doing so would result in the same empty, hollow feeling that introducing the Singles category did in 2018.  And it will only make people angrier that it happened that way as time goes on.  I hope she gets inducted twice.  I would be thrilled if the first one happened this year, but I do not expect it.  Odds of induction: 35%

12. MARY J. BLIGE

Pioneer of hip-hop/soul.  First-time nominee.

Why she might make it:  Of all the nominees on this year's ballot, she might be the paragon of the promise of a forward-thinking Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  She was pretty much unexpected, represents a style of music that is largely, if not completely, unrepresented in the Hall, and was just an overall breath of fresh air when her name was announced as being on the ballot.

Why she might not:  The conglomeration of radio, the rise of autotune, and the domination of more electronophonic music may make hip-hop/soul look more like a fad than a part of the evolution of music.

Whom she'd pave the way for:  An induction for Blige would open the way for artists like Brandy, Ashanti, Aaliyah, Toni Braxton, and maybe even blow up the dam holding back female rap acts like Queen Latifah, MC Lyte, and Salt-n-Pepa, just to name a few.

Biggest threats:  Those who prefer a chronological approach to the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame may insist that Chaka Khan must go in before Mary J. Blige.  Rappers LL Cool J and Jay-Z could probably keep votes out of her column too.

In the end:  Between Tina Turner, Carole King, and the Go-Go's, and the story arcs that each of their inductions would be among the apices for, Mary J. Blige will simply get lost of the shuffle, because we need to make sure Foo Fighters and Jay-Z get in too.  Odds of induction: 33.3%

13. RAGE AGAINST THE MACINE

Politically charged nu metal band.  Seeded #8 for 2018 and #11 for 2019

Why they might make it:  The insider nature of the Hall bodes very well for this band, with guitarist Tom Morello being on the Nominating Committee.  Additionally, the Hall loves politically charged music, and they were that.  They were also innovative in their sound.

Why they might not:  They are a band you know the name of, and may even relate to the ethos of the name itself, but you might not know any of their actual songs.  

Whom they'd pave the way for:  With Morello's love of metal, bands like Slayer and Pantera could be reached back for and nominated.  

Biggest threats:  Foo Fighters are another hard rock band with a Nominating Committe member as a band member.  It also wouldn't surprise me to learn that Tom Morello pitched Iron Maiden before biting into the giant hoagie and that even he expects them to draw votes away from his band.

In the end:  I think the band members themselves would be glad to miss out on induction again if it was because the machine that is the Hall was being reprogrammed to have better and wider representation.  Either way, though, they're missing out again.  Odds of induction: 30%

14. FELA KUTI

Afrobeat pioneer.  First-time nominee.

Why he might make it:  One thing that a nomination for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame will do, and that the Hall does right in this regard, is bring greater awareness to great artists that the general populace is unfamiliar with.  The curiosity of the name has sparked curiosity of the music, and the interest has been sparked in many.

Why he might not:  Aaaanndd there have been many others who have dug in their heels, doubled down on the willful ignorance, insisting being big in the U.S. is the bar to clear.  What percentage of those people are in the voting bloc may be higher than we wish to acknowledge.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  A whole continent of musical greatness awaits.  The most likely would probably be Yassou N'Dour, who has worked with a few names well-known to the English-speaking world, like Peter Gabriel.  King Sunny Ade and Sun Ra could get some recognition as well.

Biggest threats:  His own obscurity in the United States.  For the sake of what this heading is supposed to mean, let's say Mary J. Blige's hip-hop/soul is a funky enough style to draw votes away from Kuti.

In the end:  As Joe Kwaczala said, even Award For Musical Excellence seems to be a bad fit for Kuti.  They may have to create an International category to induct him.  I hate this idea because it would only empower those with a closed-minded definition of rock and roll, who are probably closed-minded in other regards.  But as long as the tail wags the dog, and the Hall keeps the classes unreasonably small, he's probably not getting in as a Performer.  But the chatter his nomination has created at least keeps him from being seeded last this time.  Odds of induction: 25%

15. THE NEW YORK DOLLS

Early punk-rock band.  Second nomination, previously unseeded.

Why they might make it:  They were a highly innovative and influential, both in terms of their music and their image, and the critics loved them.

Why they might not:  Outside a few of the big names, punk rock really isn't having an easy time getting into the Hall.  Additionally, they really never had major commercial success, and their circle of influence attentuates sharply the further you get from New York City.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Maybe getting them in first will help get the MC5 in?  Beyond that, we could start looking at bands like the Dead Kennedys or Black Flag.

Biggest threats:  Iron Maiden and Todd Rundgren are the only other acts that could really fit in the "classic rock" box with any level of comfort and are thus the most direct.  Foo Fighters and Rage Against The Machine are also hard-edged bands.  And oh yeah, don't forget the clear punk influences in the Go-Go's' music.

In the end:  Like Carole King, the New York Dolls are returning to the ballot after a long absence.  Unlike Carole King, there hasn't been nearly the amount of outrage over their omission, nor have they raked in the number of accolades she has to bolster their case.  Odds of induction: 20%

16. KATE BUSH

Experimental Britih musician.  Second nomination, seeded #17 (but not dead last) for 2018.

Why she might make it:  The Hall loves the artistic, experimental musicians, and Kate is most definitely that and thensome.  Additionally, the inductions of Roxy Music and T. Rex show that the Americentric bias in the ranks of the voting bloc is starting to erode and crumble.  Lastly, remembering how the tail wags the dog with the Hall, if an induction documentary is how business will be handled again this year, this is the optimal chance to induct her and possibly get her to appear (for want of a better word) for her induction, via a pre-recorded acceptance from wherever she feels comfortable giving it.

Why she might not:  There's still a strong Americentric presence in the Hall, and artists who work on their own timeline with no deadlines have trouble staying in the spotlight.  Not that she coveted it, but we're discussing what helps and what hurts getting into the Hall.

Whom she'd pave the way for:  Tori Amos is the most direct descendant of Kate Bush, stylistically, and thus would benefit the most.  Bjork is another artist in that vein who could get some consideration.

Biggest threats:  Carole King is the singer/songwriter most directly in her way, followed by the Go-Go's.  For experimental, you've got Todd Rundgren, Devo, and even Mary J. Blige to contend with.  And when it comes to the gift of metaphors in the lyrics, Fela Kuti is no slouch either.

In the end:  Because the tail wags the dog so much with the Hall these years, the prospect of a second documentary induction is probably the biggest plus factor for her.  With Carole, Tina, and the Go-Go's all having narratives that seem to lead to this moment, the buzz for Kate Bush has been minimal in comparison, and with the seeming inevitability of Foo Fighters and Jay-Z, there just doesn't seem to be room for her in this class.  I'd love to see it happen, mainly to see if she does show up at a live ceremony, but it's just too unlikely.  Maybe John Sykes will use his power and just say, "Put them all in!"  Yeah...  Odds of induction: 15%

And with that, we conclude our predictions for the Class Of 2021 for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  Like a few others, I think there is a strong possibility of there being an Early Influence inductee.  I have no idea who, but I'd love to see it be Ella Fitzgerald or the Carter Family, and would hate to see that category repurposed as a Veterans' Committee type of thing.  But if Dionne Warwick doesn't make it, maybe the Hall inducts Burt Bacharach & Hal David in lieu of her, possibly to try and build momentum for her return to the ballot next year.  My predictions look very similar to a lot of other people's, but hopefully there's some good conversation mixed in with the rationales.  Feel free to comment below and give your opinions of my opinions.