Thursday, December 15, 2016

Predictions for the Class of 2017

It's that time now, to make the final predictions for the Class of 2017.  It's been a huge ballot with wonderful discussion regarding it, but if the powers-that-be have their way, it'll only be five inductees, despite some enormous potential to have a great, diverse class that clears up some major clogs in the flow of certain aspects of rock and roll.  A lot of great nominees, some guilty pleasures, some serendipities, and some head-scratchers.  But it comes down to this, picking the winners.

And I don't like it.  As we have lived through 2016, it would appear that what we remember most is that this has been the year that our favorite celebrities snuffed it.  From Prince, to Florence Henderson, to John Glenn, to the guy who concocted General Tso' chicken, this would appear to be the year that the apocalyptic horseman Death galloped gleefully to smite our collective childhood.  However, not only can this be explained as celebrity status being easier than ever to achieve now and thus we have more celebrities, so more of them are going to die--not only all that, but much of this will be more easily forgotten.  What history may be more likely to remember about 2016 is not the ride of the Death horsemen, but perhaps more the ride of Pestilence.  Not as we traditionally think of it, no, but more as the ride of the Pestilence of Overt White Pride.  It began at the end of last year as the inductees for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame were announced as almost entirely white classic rock acts.  It continued in our entertainment culture with the #OscarsBeSoWhite affair where the AMPAS announced its nominees for the Academy Awards, and pretty much every nominee was Caucasian, which sparked outrage.  It accelerated onwards through the American primaries, which saw a rise through the Republican ranks of a candidate who was openly endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan and the American Nazi Party, and seems to have come to its zenith with the election of that candidate, Donald Trump, to be the next President of the United States Of America, a statement I thought I would never have to type, and want to weep as I do so now.  It continues on as the President-Elect announces his Cabinet and high-level staff picks, which one friend of mine described as being more fitting to a deck of Cards Against Humanity.  Now, the Rock Hall is its own institution with its own rules and ways of doing things, but nothing happens entirely in a bubble.  As has been noted by myself and others, where the Rock Hall is concerned, when many guitar bands, with many members over the years, are inducted, those living, inducted members all get a vote; and they generally tend to vote for the acts that they toured with or those that influenced them, which as Alex Liefson of Rush has confirmed, tend not to be Black soul and disco musicians.  Eventually, what you get is a perpetuation of a limited vision of what constitutes Rock And Roll, almost as limited as what Trump thinks is what makes America great.  The Rock Hall has had some foreknowledge of this, and has taken a step or two to rectify it, such as adding more critics who appreciate music of the African-American tradition, but I wonder if it'll be enough.  Maybe I'm overreacting.  I don't deny that everything that has happened has jaded me heavily, though maybe at this point, I should say "ivoried me" instead.  But I don't see a damn thing changing this year, and my predictions will largely reflect that.

As a heads-up, my computer has been having some problems, so I may be offline for awhile, and may miss the announcement, and won't be able to post reactions for awhile.  That said, let's get to the seeds and our final picks.

Grunge rock act.  Newly eligible, first-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  Pearl Jam is the third leg of the triumvirate that helped alternative rock break through the mainstream in the '90s.  They are hugely influential, and Eddie Vedder has inducted a few acts into the Hall himself, so they're well-connected.
Why they might not:  When the NomComm met to decide the ballot for the Class of 2015, it wasn't until the final round of suggestions that someone realized that no one had mentioned Green Day yet.  Everyone else was figuring someone else was going to nominate Green Day, and they almost ended up not being on the ballot.  That's the same situation here.  If enough people think everyone else is voting for Pearl Jam, so they can throw a vote to someone less likely, it could add up to keep Pearl Jam out.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  More alt-rock acts that both followed and predated Pearl Jam stand to come through the door, including Alice In Chains, Radiohead, Rage Against The Machine, and the Foo Fighters.
Biggest threats:  Jane's Addiction is the most direct threat, but the classic rock acts on the ballot could form a wall, Red-Rover-Red-Rover style, to keep them out.
In the end:  Oh please.  They're going in.  Odds of induction: 98%

Arena rock band formed in the mid '70s.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  They are currently leading the fan vote, and while that's not a certainty, it's been a lockstep correlation so far, ever since the fan ballot was introduced.  Additionally, this is a band with heavy popular appeal, and those within the Foundation who want to get more visitors to the museum will be all behind getting this band in.  In the past, even I have called them the epitome of Americana in rock'n'roll music.
Why they might not:  In the past, the Hall has always aimed more to honor artists that were innovative, proved influential, and elevated rock 'n' roll as an art form.  Journey's resume has all but three of those things: they aren't innovative, their influence is minimal, and no critic not on a bad hallucinogenic trip has ever referred to their music as "art."  Journey may very well be the schlockiest act ever to be nominated to date that didn't also have one of those three things.  The only possible rival for that honor would be ABBA, and I'd still give it to Journey, because ABBA was unique with a sound that has never really been duplicated, whereas Journey is from the same mold as bands like Foreigner, Kansas, Boston, and Styx.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Foreigner, Kansas, Boston, and Styx.  And honestly, just about any act, especially those in the classic rock format.
Biggest threats:  If there's any attempt to diversify the ballot, Electric Light Orchestra, the Cars, Yes, the J. Geils Band, and Steppenwolf are all possible vote thieves from Journey.
In the end:  It will really be interesting to see what becomes of the Hall in the next few years once these guys are in.  And it's a pretty safe bet they're in.  Odds of induction: 80%

Orchestral rock group.  First-time nominee
Why they might make it:  Frontman Jeff Lynne is very well connected in the industry, they received very high praise from John Lennon himself, they have a sizeable catalog of hit albums and songs that are still revered, and have a couple signature songs to boot.  On paper, they should be a lock.
Why they might not:  Because the Hall can be pretty unpredictable sometimes.  It took them this long to get nominated.  Additionally, some naysayers say they're only nominated so they can get the last Wilbury in the Hall.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  This one's hard to call.  Probably some other British rockers from the '70s.  Or just some more classic rockers like Peter Frampton among others.
Biggest threats:  Journey is keeping them out of the top spot in the fan vote.  Plus the Cars, Yes, the J. Geils Band, and Steppenwolf could run interference.
In the end:  I had the same mix of confidence and uneasiness last year about Chicago.  I think that's a good sign.  Odds of induction: 75%

Folk chanteuse with a very long career.  First-time nominee.
Why she might make it:  She's extremely influential, including having influenced Bob Dylan.  She's very politically active, which the voters for the Hall love.  They also love singer-songwriters, which she fills.  She's just one of those nominees, along with some others on this ballot that people thought was inducted long ago.
Why she might not:  She herself has never associated herself as being "rock 'n' roll" or even "folk-rock."  She's just "folk."  That might not go over well with voters.  Also, since 2016 has been a good year for horrible people, the fact that she's a woman is a liability as well.
Whom she'd pave the way for:  Judy Collins is another songstress who's been considered before.  A Baez induction should give her an increased chance.  It could also bode well for strictly folk artists who were still influential on the world of rock 'n' roll like the Kingston Trio and Peter, Paul, And Mary.
Biggest threats:  Chaka Khan and Janet Jackson are fellow ladies vying for a vote.  The Zombies and Steppenwolf are fellow '60s acts that stand in the way as well.
In the end:  She may not identify as rock 'n' roll, but songs like "Blue Sky" and "In The Quiet Morning" show how folk is part of the DNA of rock 'n' roll music.  She's also connected to one of the deities of rock 'n' roll music.  Just having that on her side should overcome all stylistic and biological handicaps against her induction.  She'll be the token "diversity" inductee this year, like N.W.A. was last year.  Odds of induction: 65%

Blues-based rock group.  Fourth-time nominee, unseeded the first two times,  Seeded #3 in 2011.
Why they might make it:  They've got Jann S. Wenner and Little Steven in their corner, which is big.  Little Steven has a pretty good track record of getting his nominees in, and every couple years or so, a pet act of Wenner's gets in, such as the Paul Butterfield Blues Band in 2015.  Additionally, they're a great live act with an electrifying frontman who has been on hand for the Hall's ceremonies a time or two.
Why they might not:  Despite all the people in their corner, they're a tough sell.  On paper, they just don't stack up as being very worthy.  They're an act that is easy to forget in the shuffle of everything, and that could hurt.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Since they were originally rooted in the blues, maybe getting them in will get the Hall to look at blues artists again and go for Johnny Winter, Otis Rush, Junior Wells, or Albert Collins.  It could even open a door for Southside Johnny And The Asbury Jukes.
Biggest threats:  Steppenwolf is bluesier and is the most direct threat.  Also Journey, Electric Light Orchestra, the Cars, and Yes are all scrambling for votes too.
In the end:  I originally couldn't decide whether to pick the Cars or Yes for the fifth slot, and then I remember the words of Father Mulcahey in an episode of M*A*S*H: when the money is divided between the favorites, bet on the longshot.  And among the classic rock acts nominated this year, I think that's this band.  Odds of induction: 52%

6. 2PAC
Vulcan rapper born T'Pac, son of Sh'Kur, did reconnaissance work prior to first contact as an American rapper.  Newly eligible, and thus first time nominated.
Why he might make it:  He's a heavily influential rapper, and one who died in his prime, which the Hall always loves and respects.  A lot of hit tracks and albums crammed into a relatively short time period, too.
Why he might not:  Rap has been struggling to get recognized by the Hall in recent years.  N.W.A. finally got in after four nominations.  2Pac may not be the sure thing everyone initially thought.
Whom he'd pave the way for:  The Notorious B.I.G. will be eligible very shortly, plus Snoop Doggy Dogg and Ice Cube as a soloist could be nominated in the next few years.
Biggest threats:  There are no other rappers, but Pearl Jam is the other newly eligible act on the ballot and Chic, Chaka Khan, and Janet Jackson are all representing R&B solidly.
In the end:  If they do decide to induct six acts in 2017, it'll bump up 2Pac's chances.  Otherwise, I'm gonna buck trend here and say he misses out.  Odds of induction: 50%

R&B/disco group fronted by a crackerjack production team.  This is their eleventh appearance on the ballot, not seeded their first two times, seeded dead last (#9) in 2007, #7 in 2008, #5 in 2010, #10 in 2011, #12 in 2013, #2 in 2014, #7 in 2015 and #6 in 2016.
Why they might make it:  Everyone is sick of seeing their name on the ballot, and collectively wondering why they aren't just in already.  Even Eddie Trunk, the Donald Trump of Rock Hall discussion, says Chic needs to be inducted already.  Their records' craftsmanship was simply impeccable, and resistance is wearing down.
Why they might not:  Despite saying they need to be in already, Eddie Trunk still couldn't be bothered to vote for them.  And there are probably at least a hundred official voters who think and act the same way.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Chic's gotta get in before we can even have the slightest glimmer of hope for the Gap Band or Barry White to get nominated, or for the Spinners to break through and not have the vote split against them in the future.
Biggest threats:  Their own legacy as the "Susan Lucci" of the Rock Hall.  Aside from that, Chaka Khan and Janet Jackson are the most direct competition, and Bad Brains could steal some votes away from them as well.
In the end:  My open message to voters and monitors alike--There will be NO "Award For Musical Excellence" for just Nile Rodgers or Chic.  The Hall has made its position crystal clear: they are going in the Hall as Performers.  And there will be no grandfathering them in via a Veterans' Committee or any such falderal.  They're going in this way.  Eventually.  Accept it, suck it up, and vote them in next year.  This year, still not happening unless they expand the class to seven inductees.  Odds of induction: 45%

New-wave rock band.  Second time nominee, seeded #5 last year.
Why they might make it: There aren't too many bands that can be innovative, widely acclaimed by critics, and popular with the listening public.  The Cars pulled it off and made it look effortless.
Why they might not: New-wave and synth-rock are pretty minimally represented in the Hall, and it's not a widely loved style by the powers-that-be therein.
Whom they'd pave the way for: An induction for the Cars probably won't bode too well for acts whose popularity was not in America, so don't expect a door to open for Gary Numan or Tubeway Army, but the strong synth lines could help connect the dots towards Duran Duran somewhere down the line.
Biggest threats:  Journey and Electric Light Orchestra are the biggest threats, along with Yes, the J. Geils Band and Steppenwolf.
In the end:  The Cars could end up being one of those rare good calls that strangely need a second nomination to get in, like Queen or Aerosmith, or they could be on their way to need seven or eight nominations like Lynyrd Skynyrd or Black Sabbath.  All things considered, I balk at their odds, but won't be too surprised if they do get in.  Odds of induction: 40%

9. YES
Long-lasting progressive rock band with numerous personnel changes.  Third time nominee.  Seeded #6 for 2014, and #4 for 2016.
Why they might make it: Yes, so far, is the only prog act to not get in on their first nomination, so that's a bit of an anomaly.  Prog does well.  Plus they're a fairly influential AND popular prog act, another anomaly.  
Why they might not:  Critics still compose a significant chunk of the voting bloc, and critics have never been big on prog.  Plus, despite an impressive showing as an albums band, their singles recognition factor is fairly low.
Whom they’d pave the way for: Prog has a fairly long queue that rockists want to see inducted: King Crimson, Jethro Tull, and Emerson, Lake, And Palmer to name but three.
Biggest threats: Once again, this year's ballot is almost the classic rock lover's dream, so look for some division from the Cars, Steppenwolf, Journey, Electric Light Orcestra, and the J. Geils Band.
In the end: In 2014, I said that Yes could be the first prog band to need a second nomination, and it appears I was right.  Right now, they're in that limbo of being hard to guess just how many they'll need though.   They'll need a thinner classic rock selection, I think to finally break through.  Odds of induction: 37.5%

European progressive act that pioneered electronica. Fourth-time nominee, unseeded their first time, seeded #9 in 2013, and #13 in 2015.
Why they might make it:  Slowly but steadily, people are waking up and realizing just how big of a deal Kraftwerk really is, not just for dance music, but also hip-hop and the entirety of the rock 'n' roll diaspora.  At this point, we can probably say it's not a matter of "if" but "when."
Why they might not: While the Hall Of Fame doesn’t discriminate against acts from countries other than the US and UK, they do strongly favor acts that were very popular in the U.S.A., which Kraftwerk was not.  If a voting member isn’t too familiar with their stuff, and sees five other names they like, they won’t bother researching Kraftwerk further.
Whom they’d pave the way for: There’re a couple avenues to go here. Fatboy Slim, Daft Punk, and many more famous electronica acts are still a few years off.  The Art Of Noise are a left-field possibility, though possibly too much of a novelty act to get in.  But Kraftwerk’s induction may help more acts who were huge, just not in the States, get some recognition, such as Cliff Richard And The Shadows, Status Quo, Johnny Hallyday, Fela, or even Ricky Martin in the future.  Both paths are a bit of a stretch, but if the road really dead-ended with Kraftwerk, they probably wouldn’t be worth inducting anyway.
Biggest threats:  Dance music has Janet Jackson, Chaka Khan, and Chic all here.  European stylings show Depeche Mode as a possibly likelier choice.
In the end: Kraftwerk will probably need seven or eight nominations before getting their proper recognition, much like the Stooges or Black Sabbath.  It's just going to take more time before enough people wake up to them.  Odds of induction: 35%

Synth-rock outfit from England.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  Depeche Mode represent something pretty innovative and signature of the '80s, and despite never really grabbing the brass ring at any one time, they're recognized as one of the biggest names in their field for the entirety of their career and catalog.
Why they might not:  Their style is ultimately not that well loved, especially by critics in the voting bloc.  Plus, with the Smiths, the Replacements, and the Cure all failing to get inducted in the past, it just seems like so much of the '80s is going to be kept out for awhile. 
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Simple Minds have been considered before, and an induction of Depeche Mode might give them a shot, as well as Duran Duran, and even the Thompson Twins and Tears For Fears.
Biggest threats:  Kraftwerk is the clearest direct competition.  Bad Brains and Janet Jackson also represent the '80s and could steal votes.
In the end:  In a weird way, Depeche Mode can be described as "big fish in a small pond," particularly when discussing their subgenre's representation in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  That's not saying they're small potatoes, just that what they bring to the Hall's table isn't getting asked to be passed around all that much.  And with a ballot this large and a small class promised, they'll drop through the cracks.  A lot of people like them, but can't find room for them this time around.  Odds of induction: 33.3%

12. THE MC5
Hard-rockin' proto-punk band.  Second time nominated, previously unseeded.
Why they might make it:  They're heavily respected for their innovation and influence.  Plus, who wouldn't want to see an MC5 tribute performance fronted by Fred "Sonic" Smith's wife Patti?  That could only be awesome.
Why they might not:  They were short lived and didn't have much presence, and still don't have much name recognition with the general music listening public.  Also, distortion as an effect is novel and artistic, but overall is a gimmick that doesn't break down walls for them.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  They could help pave the way for acts like Television and the also-once-nominated New York Dolls.
Biggest threats:  Steppenwolf is probably their biggest competition for hard-rocking late '60s/early '70s bands.  The Zombies are also a threat in their own right.
In the end:  It's nice to see them nominated again, looking forward to seeing their name appear again because this won't be their year.  Odds of induction: 30%

Hard blues-rock band.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  "Born To Be Wild" is a rallying anthem for the rock and roll world, and "Magic Carpet Ride" is a great, albeit possibly unintentional, anthem for the psychedelic '60s.  Plus the Hall loves blues rockers.
Why they might not:  Despite making some great music, their nomination is not widely popular.  Thought of as a two-trick pony, they are regarded as simply falling short of the mark.  Plus, lead singer John Kay is an East German-born Canadian, and that won't stand here in 'Murica!
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Being considered proto-metal, they could help give an extra boost for Judas Priest and Motorhead.  They could also open the door for good-time rock from the '60s again, and maybe Paul Revere And The Raiders could get some recognition.  
Biggest threats:  Electric Light Orchestra, Journey, the Cars, and Yes all stand in their way on the classic rock front.  The Zombies, Joe Tex, and the MC5 are other representatives of the '60s.
In the end:  I'm probably the only person in my immediate musical community that thinks Steppenwolf is worthy of enshrinement.  That said, even I didn't list them in the upper half of deserving acts in this year's ballot.  Another year perhaps.  Odds of induction: 25%

‘60s British Invasion rock group that prominently featured keyboards.  Second time they've been nominated, seeded #8 in 2014.
Why they might make it:  Not only does the Rock Hall love the British Invasion, but so does the general public.  This is an inductee they’d celebrate together.  Also, one of the more distinct of the British acts.  Their sound was very unique and hard to confuse for anyone else.  
Why they might not: They were pretty short lived, and have only a handful of songs that people remember, even though they love them dearly. It might just not be enough.
Whom they’d pave the way for: With Procol Harum missing out this year, an induction for the Zombies might rejuvenate that charge.  It could also lead to future nominations for Manfred Mann, Herman’s Hermits, the Spencer Davis Group, and maybe a left field pick like the Troggs.
Biggest threats:  Those nostalgic for the '60s also have Steppenwolf, Joe Tex, and the MC5 to consider.
In the end:  In some ways, this could be the upset special this year.  I see them sneaking through, but it'll be a hard thing to make happen.  A little too unlikely this time around.  Odds of induction: 20%

Alternative rock group.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it:  They've got the image, and they've got some semblance of influence that works to their advantage.  Plus, they're a white, male, guitar band.
Why they might not:  As a unit, their output was not exactly large.  They're almost as well-known for their members' later projects as they are for their own.
Whom they'd pave the way for:  Other rock acts from the same era to follow could include the Stone Roses, Stone Temple Pilots, and Smashing Pumpkins.
Biggest threats:  Pearl Jam is the biggie.  Bad Brains are also a below-the-radar threat that could take votes away from them.
In the end:  With Pearl Jam as the sure thing, this band could've been left off the ballot and no one would have missed them.  They don't represent anything Pearl Jam doesn't.  Nice to see them nominated, but no chance.  Odds of induction: 16.6%

R&B and dance music diva.  Second nomination, #3 seed last year.
Why she might make it:  She's the biggest singles' name on the ballot.  There has also been an online campaign to get Janet Jackson inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  This has been their baby, and it looks like it could happen one day. 
Why she might not: Ever since she was announced as a return nominee, people have been looking for reasons to keep her out.  Currently, they're using her due date as a reason why she'd miss the ceremonies, and thus, why bother voting for her?  Beyond that, there are still the two things might hinder her chances.  First, there's been a lot of speculation that all she has is because of her name and her brother's fame.  Some just think she'd be nothing if she weren't Michael's sister.  Second, naysayers say a lot of her records, particularly the earlier ones, have a very generic sound that is nothing special, even derivative, and that her producers make all the magic of her music.  This is augmented by the fact on a lot of her records, her voice doesn't come through very strongly, lost in the production effect.
Whom she'd pave the way for: The big hope is that getting Janet in will kick down the doors for Whitney Houston, and eventually Mariah Carey, TLC, Destiny's Child, and Beyonce. 
Biggest threats: Chaka Khan is the other major diva on the ballot, Chic could steal the dance music votes, too.  And don't count out Kraftwerk either.
In the end:  The Hall added a bunch of critics to counter the increasing voice of the classic rock band members, but the fact that she's a not a guitar-slinging, white, male rocker is going to be what keeps her out for a few years more.  Odds of induction: 15%

R&B diva, former lead singer of Rufus.  Second time nominee?  Second and a half?  Rufus with Chaka Khan was seeded #15 for 2012, and her solo efforts were seeded #11 last year.
Why she might make it: She's a big name draw with a slew of chart hits of her own, plus she's worked with a lot of important names in the rock community.
Why she might not: This is presumably about her solo career, and won't include her work with Rufus.  Her solo stuff includes a lot easier listening ballads, though not exclusively.
Whom she'd pave the way for:  There are a few other disco divas who might be worth taking a look at.  Grace Jones tops that list.
Biggest threats:  Janet Jackson is the obvious competition, but so are Chic, and Joe Tex.
In the end:  Everything said about Janet Jackson's chances pretty much applies here.  She's Black, female, and not played on classic rock stations.  Game over.  Enter initials.  Odds of induction: 12.5%

Reggae-flavored hardcore punk rock group.  First-time nominee.
Why they might make it: Industry insiders love Bad Brains, recognize their innovation and influence, and would love to see them get in.  Voters are almost all industry insiders to some degree.  Also, remember what was said about Pearl Jam above; Bad Brains is exactly the kind of act someone who figures everyone else is voting for Pearl Jam would throw a bone to.
Why they might not: Even those who love and revere Bad Brains admit they're a tough sell, especially in a ballot like this.  Beyond that, they have absolutely no public resonance.  Literally no hit albums or singles on any Billboard chart.  None.  Also, they're Black.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Hardcore punk has yet to break through, so Dead Kennedys and Black Flag are the two biggest possibilities to come through the door behind Bad Brains.
Biggest threats: Pearl Jam and Jane's Addiction are already representing the non-mainstream side of things, and the guitar wizardry of Nile Rodgers means Chic's something of a direct competitor as well.
In the end: It would be a wonderful coup if Bad Brains got in instead of Pearl Jam.  It would be interesting how political scientists would view the decision and outcome in terms of cooperation and defection.  Would it be considered akin to the chicken scenario, the stag hunt, the prisoners' dilemma, or something else?   It's all academic, because it'll take one hell of a Hail Mary collusion to make it happen.  Odds of induction: 10%

Soul singer.  Fifth time nominated, unseeded the first two times, seeded #6 for 2007, #12 for 2011.
Why he might make it: The Hall does love soul, and Tex has a strong catalog and history as a soul singer.  He's also recognized as a pioneer of the rap vocal style delivery.  Additionally, because he's dead, he's one more inductee the Hall could throw in, have a short inductor's speech, a relatively short acceptance speech from a loved one, and no tribute performance except maybe to do one of his songs as the all-star jam.  They could induct him and add maybe five extra minutes to the induction ceremony for those who don't see that scenario as the tail wagging the dog.
Why he might not: Did I say "The Hall does love soul"?  Correction: the Hall DID love soul.  Aside from an ex-sex induction of Bill Withers in 2015, the Hall pretty much broke up with soul... via changing its Facebook relationship status to "Single" without soul knowing it, after sneaking Bobby Womack in in 2009 (or arguably Jimmy Cliff in 2010, or Darlene Love in 2011).  Furthermore, this is someone that had something of a feud with James Brown, a sacred cow for the Hall.  That spells trouble right there.  Also, he wasn't just Black, but also Muslim, and that's just unAmerican!
Whom he'd pave the way for: I'd love to see "Soul Philosopher" Johnnie Taylor get in after Tex, and hopefully clearing out Tex would finally bring serious discussion for Brook Benton or solo inductions for Jerry Butler and Ben E. King.
Biggest threats: From the R&B camp, Chic, Janet Jackson, Chaka Khan, as well as Steppenwolf, the Zombies, and Joan Baez from the '60's.
In the end:  It would take a manifest decision on the part of the Hall to execute that "five extra minutes" scenario that I described above to get Joe Tex in this year.  The Death Fairy has been especially busy this year, so much so that being dead won't even help him.  Fat chance.  Not. Gonna. Happen.  Odds of induction: 5%

There you have it.  My predictions.  I'm not too happy about it, but it's what I see happening.  As much as I love Electric Light Orchestra, Journey, the Zombies, and Steppenwolf, I would be happiest with a class that consisted of Janet Jackson, Bad Brains, Joe Tex, Chaka Khan, Chic, 2Pac, and Joan Baez--just any act that is not both White and male.  But that's not reality.  So I'll see you all on the other side of the announcements.  


  1. Genuine question...on a Hall that's trying to get more popular and mainstream, why are Depeche Mode seen as just being in a "small pond"? Isn't today's music almost ALL electronic? DM are the most popular (100 million records and still playing arenas today!) electronic act by far. To me predicting J.Geils Band is just too "inside baseball" of a selection, meaning, I think you're listening too much to the echo chamber of the (old) process. The Hall has thrown out a lot of the old school voters recently, and in fact, my pet theory about why DM and Kraftwerk are on the ballot all of a sudden is because last year Trent Reznor (& modern industry influencer) made a stink (privately) why HE was on the ballot, but not the Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath of the form.

    1. You've got a couple facts skewed and some untenable assumptions going on. First off, Kraftwerk started appearing on the ballot again before NIN was eligible. Second, the Hall ejected some of the members from the Nominating Committee, not the voting bloc, as far as we know. The reason for the purge from the NomComm was partially about modernizing the ballot and thereby the classes, but also to give the meetings some actual discussion. One member stated that with so many members on the committee, it was basically each member naming their names, and then voting on them. By reducing the number of members, they could actually have discussion about the names mentioned and help craft a stronger ballot. And last year was the first run of that downsizing, and we had a six classic rock acts, which was enough names to potentially keep a class from getting too diverse, which is exactly what happened. As far as we know, the voting bloc keeps growing. In fact, they just added more non-musicians (presumably mostly critics) to counter all the White, guitar band members that were getting induction. The thinking on that has been so that there'd be more racial and gender diversity in the Hall.

      To more directly answer your question, you've got a misperception of "mainstream and popular." When we say "mainstream and popular," we're not talking about mainstream and popular TODAY, we're talking mainstream and popular about forty years ago. That may have been part of what finally got Donna Summer through the door (that, and her death). There are certain voices in the higher echelons of the Foundation that are thinking primarily about how to get more bodies visiting the museum. Well, the people who are most likely to visit a "Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame And Museum" in Cleveland, Ohio are largely people with a fairly myopic definition of what defines and constitutes "rock and roll," basically people who agree with 90% of what Eddie Trunk says. That's why you have Rush, KISS, Chicago, Deep Purple, and now Journey getting nominated (and inducted most likely with Journey). They were more mainstream, as opposed to critics' darlings like Randy Newman, Los Lobos, and Big Star. And these band are also the acts who are popular with the demographic that the Hall is trying to woo to spend their money on the museum in Cleveland. As far as today's largely electronophonic music goes, I'm pretty sure the current powers-that-be would rather revisit the '60s and '50s before giving any consideration to mainstream artists like Nicki Minaj or Jason Derulo, though Lady Gaga will probably have a pretty easy time getting in. There will probably be some passings on of torches before those acts are eligible, but since it's largely insider, those new voices will be chosen by the old ones, and it won't be because they have new and fresh ideas and perspectives. In fact, just being a pet of Jann and Miami Steve is exactly why I seed the J. Geils Band fifth.

      Worry not though, Depeche Mode has enough cache even with the staunchest of rockists that now they've been nominated, they'll probably get in at some point, and Kraftwerk is now a matter of when and not if.

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  3. Great analysis and breakdown. It's a bit depressing, though, because if these predictions hold true it'll be a very predictable (and white!) induction ceremony. At least there might be a female onstage, although I'd prefer it to be Janet Jackson over Joan Baez.

    I'm holding out hope for some surprises. And also hoping for at least 6 inductees this year.

  4. I am floored by the argument that being Michael Jackson's sister is behind Janet Jackson's fame in the music industry. Name recognition is helpful, but no. If that were the case Latoya Jackson and Rebbie Jackson were also Michael's sisters. The "thing" about Michael and Janet Jackson is they were almost like a male and female version of the same person. Both highly talented, performers and song writers. Having a famous last name argument is an insult to all of the hard work, dedication and commitment Janet has poured into her career over the last three decades. It is also a bit insulting to the Rock Hall definitive 200 album list where Janet has two albums listed. As for her vocals ... listen to Again, Black Cat, and that's just two of many where she showcased her vocals. Janet's music to vocal blend is magic. As for her not showing up if inducted, no way she would let her fans,some of the most loyal in the world, down by not being there unless something beyond her control were to happen. Don't mean to write a book, but the Rock Hall is "The" institution where the greats are, based upon merit.That is why we are so passionate about Janet being inducted. Janet Jackson has earned her spot there, no one has given her anything, she has earned it. In some ways, being Michael Jackson's sister hurt because Janet is VERY independent, and her own person. Her song Control was rooted in the things she was experiencing at the time. I will say this, I am a huge fan of both Janet and Michael Jackson. Janet's album she released last year, Unbreakable, I heard Michael Jackson's voice in a few of the songs. I cried like a baby because I never realized how similar their voices were. In closing this book, seriously Janet should not be punished because she and her brother were both equally talented, and deserving to be there among others legends of rock music. *Please excuse typos/omitted words

    1. Thanks for your input. Again, these are not necessarily my arguments, certainly not all the time, but also ones I come across. I don't agree with the coattails argument at all, but it does seem to be an argument that people like to haul out, and it's less ridiculous than the argument that her Superbowl "wardrobe malfunction" disgraces her legacy and thus should keep her out (seriously? Look at who's inducted if you really think that... even Percy Sledge was a tax evader.)

      As for the vocals, that is mine. It's not every song, but there are several songs where her voice is not the heaviest artillery on the song, which if you're not also playing an instrument (such as Eddie Cochran on guitar or Elton John on piano), is a hindrance to your legacy. That doesn't mean I don't think she's worthy (I ranked her #5 for merits), but it is something that people may keep in mind.

      Again, thanks for the feedback.

  5. 3rd Time Yes ends up being in the top 5 on the Fan Ballot. Like out presidential election, if these were decided by the actual POPULAR vote in pure number of Votes, Yes would have been inducted on their 1st nomination. And if they don't get in this year, it will again add to how screwed up the voting process is and the 1/8 of 1% of the vote the hundreds of thousands of votes they received are actually worth.

    Induct 10 artists every year, Nominate 25.