Songs Of Proof: The Class Of 2010

The Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame did something very unique for their Class Of 2010.  They inducted more Non-Performer acts than they did Performer acts.  Oh sure, when you count up the number of band members, the Performers still have more people counted, but in terms of named acts, even when not splitting up the inducted duos, it came out 6-5 in favor of the Non-Performers.  This is the only time that has ever happened.  The Class Of 2000 was where the Performer category didn't have the majority, but they did have the plurality: six Performer acts, five Sideman inductees, two Early Influences, and one Non-Performer.  And for the Class Of 1990, the only way you get a 50/50 split is by implementing the Mort Shuman rule, splitting up the teams of Goffin-King and Holland-Dozier-Holland.  But for 2010, we have six Non-Performer entities to five in the Performer category.  And even though it was simply one presentation by Carole King to induct the songwriters, it was their induction that was the highlight of the night, at least for me, and certainly as reflected in all the jamming going on at the end.  As much fun as it was to see Iggy Pop back in his usual form, and to watch drama unfold for the Hollies (which I didn't realize was the case at the time, to be honest), it was really the Non-Performers that made the night magic, especially the songwriters.  Indeed, even back when the inductees were first announced, I got way more excited about the list of songwriters being inducted than about the Performers.

That's not to take anything away from the Performer inductees either, though.  You've got the guilty pleasure of even the most hard-nosed of metalheads, prog being represented for the first time since Pink Floyd was inducted in 1996, the final Clyde McPhatter clubber to come from Crosby, Stills, Nash, And Young, a long overdue punk outfit, and a reggae artist that came out of nowhere.  Perhaps my lessened enthusiasm for this class stems more from how poorly I did predicting from this ballot.  This is undoubtedly the nadir of my predicting career.  Not only did I only go 2/5 this year, but the three that got in that I didn't predict were my three lowest seeds.  Egg on my face to be sure.  And of course, there's the Non-Performer who wasn't a songwriter.  Now that I've at least made cursory mention of all the inductees, let's go deeper with some fitting songs to salute them.


 ABBA:  Absolute ear candy.  The video package for them hailed them as "really good pop music."  It's hard to disagree with that.  In fact, I'd say it's "high-quality pop music," if for no other reason than to perturb all the pretentious music snobs who define Billboard magazine as the SI unit for measuring how hard a music act has sold out.  I don't love every song by ABBA, but I would say that I love about eighty percent of the songs on their "Gold" anthology, and another fifty percent of the "Even More Gold" follow-up anthology.  They really embraced a variety of American rock and roll and pop styles, incorporating them into their own catalog.  "I Do, I Do, I Do, I Do, I Do" has a horn and rhythm line very reminiscent to songs by Clarence "Frogman" Henry, "When I Kissed The Teacher" is a great callback to the girl group sounds of the early '60's and would have fit perfectly in the Crystals' catalog, "Take A Chance On Me" has a style that evolved from doo-wop, and so on.  Not to mention their ability to tackle more adult views of life, such as "Slipping Through My Fingers."  For representation, I drove a stake right through the heart of any rockist's argument, and selected "Waterloo," which in addition to having a terrific sock-hop feel to its chorus, is overall just driving rock and roll, and possibly the most "rocking" song of theirs, save "So Long."  Despite seeding them so low, I was happy to see them make it, and sad that only half the quartet showed up.  (Vocal Group Hall Of Fame Song Of Proof: "Take A Chance On Me")

Jeff Barry:  One half of a terrific songwriting duo, he and Ellie wrote some incredible music during the early '60's.  Truly a feather in their cap to have worked with both Phil Spector and the legendary team of Leiber And Stoller.  What isn't so well-known about them, though, is that Jeff and Ellie recorded as the Raindrops.  The songs that were released as by the Raindrops were primarily demos intended to be used in pitching songs to other acts, when Jubilee records decided to release the demos under the name, "The Raindrops".  These songs indeed had a very demo feel to them, rudimentary, and minimal engineering talent involved.  And yet, the songs by the Raindrops are absolutely fantastic.  The quality of the writing married with the catchy melodies, Ellie's fantastic vocals recorded on multiple tracks, with Barry providing the bass parts--an arrangement mirroring that of the Orlons.  They were promoted under the guise of being a trio, however, all the female voices were Ellie's.  For Jeff, we're using "What A Guy," the first song released which peaked at #41 on the Hot 100, but was the biggest hit on what was Billboard's R&B chart at the time.  This song really features his booming bass more than the other major hit by this studio group.

Otis Blackwell:  It's hard to imagine what took the Hall so long to recognize Otis Blackwell as a songwriter.  Just being the man who wrote "Don't Be Cruel" should have been enough to get him in.  Of course, he was no one-trick pony.  Otherwise, I would have saved "Don't Be Cruel" for him and used a different song for Bill Black in the previous year's celebration.  One of the truly great solo songwriters in the early years of rock and roll, other standards of his include "Fever," "Great Balls Of Fire," "Handy Man," and "All Shook Up," the last of which is arguably Elvis's biggest hit song, as the B-side didn't get shared listing at #1 for any of its nine weeks at the top spot, which incidentally, for eight of those weeks, kept the Diamonds' "Little Darlin'" at #2.  So many terrific songs, and it is in fact "All Shook Up" that is used to represent Otis Blackwell's contributions in this great playlist.

Jimmy Cliff:  One of my supervisors, during my tenure in my semi-brief broadcast radio career, said Jimmy Cliff was probably the least deserving inductee by the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  This is not the same person who defended Percy Sledge by saying "When A Man Loves A Woman" was one of the three songs every Oldies station has to have, but he did say that Cliff was even less deserving than Sledge.  Sledge at least has the timelessness of that song, and it was a humongous smash hit.  Jimmy Cliff, by comparison, and in my former boss's own words of the time, never really ever grabbed the brass ring, never had that one monumental moment when he really mattered, and the buzz was about him.  He may not be entirely wrong, either.  Jimmy Cliff's biggest moment of pop stardom comes from the soundtrack to the film Cool Runnings after all.  Yet, when one looks at what Cliff brought to the table, it's not a bad call after all.  Jimmy Cliff's music marries reggae with American soul music and ties it very closely to the traditions of early rock and roll.  Moreover, Jimmy Cliff represented that glimmer of hope that the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame might possibly become a little less Americentric too.  He's the man widely credited for spreading reggae in his native Jamaica.  "Many Rivers To Cross" is absolute masterpiece, and like many of his other songs, like "The Harder They Come," and "You Can Get It If You Really Want," is optimistic at its heart.  It is perhaps that optimism that helped reggae spread the way it did.  And as the song of choice for the man states, maybe the key to his music and optimism is to ultimately choose to see life as the sum of "Wonderful World, Beautiful People."

David Geffen:  At his own induction, he downplayed his talents by saying he basically had none.  But record executives that understand the mind of an artist are a true gift.  It's even rarer when said executive isn't so musically inclined himself or herself.  The song I've chose to honor this record label founder is rooted in a piece of lore.  When John Lennon announced to the world that he was coming out of retirement with a new album, record labels were tripping all over themselves and each other to be the lucky label chosen to release that album.  John Lennon must have received multiple letters from every major label in the United States, as well as from the United Kingdom, and probably Canada.  And letters from multitudinous smaller labels, too.  So, how did the victor earn their spoils to release what would become Double Fantasy?  David Geffen took a different approach.  Possibly recalling how Yoko was wrongfully blamed for breaking up the Beatles, or how she encouraged John to have a mistress to expand his creativity more, or maybe he was just wise enough to realize that John viewed his marriage as a partnership and that Yoko would have to be on board with whatever record deal came--whatever the reason was, Geffen wrote to Yoko, not John, to try and convince John to sign with Geffen Records.  And the story goes that when Yoko showed John the letter, John smiled and knew he'd found the right label to handle his artistry.  David Geffen understood his artists enough to know that the way to John Lennon was through his "Woman."  Hence, the aptly chosen track from that album.

Genesis:  The quiet rebels of rock and roll, as Trey Anastasio said.  I joined the Future Rock Legends community between the 2008 induction ceremony and the ballot for the Class Of 2009.  It was an incredible treasure trove of information, and it still is.  The most interesting find at the time, perhaps, was the "Previously Considered" list, which not only included every act that had been nominated but missed out, but every name that supposedly has been officially submitted at the meetings of the Nominating Committee, if I understand correctly.  For the ballot from 2009, there were no acts that went from "considered but never nominated," to "nominated," if I recall correctly.  The ballot for this class, though, included four names that I recall.  Two of them got in, two of them did not (though both of those, KISS and Laura Nyro, eventually did).  Genesis was one of those two acts that moved from "considered, but never nominated" to "inductee" in the course of less than a year.  As far as the band goes, I once likened Genesis to the Drifters: groups with two incarnations where the earlier incarnations are why you respect those groups, and the later incarnations are why you've actually heard of them.  The analogy runs pretty much no deeper than that, to be sure, but it's something to note that as respected as songs like "The Lamb Lies Down On Broadway" are, Genesis probably would probably have been considered as pressing a priority as Gentle Giant if it hadn't for the more commercial output with Phil Collins on lead.  That's just how the music business is, sometimes.  It's always the same, it's just a shame, and that's all.  And yes, that is the song I'm using.  "That's All" has a catchy, but moody melody that still hints at their more prog past, the tempered anger, and still something commercial.  That sums up Genesis pretty well, I think, though I did consider using "Turn It On Again," as well.

Ellie Greenwich:  The other half of the team with Jeff Barry that wrote so many Brill Building classics.  I think I covered most of their Non-Performer credentials pretty well in discussing Jeff Barry.  So, instead, I just want to talk about the Raindrops more, since Ellie was two-thirds to three-quarters of the singing voices on those records.  The Hall talks about "unquestionable musical excellence" as the paramount consideration for getting inducted.  Despite the engineering gonks that are present, when it comes to girl groups of the '60's, even though they were just demos that Jubilee decided to save a penny on by releasing instead, I would seriously stack up the musical excellence of the works of the Raindrops against those of the Crystals, the Ronettes, the Chantels, the Chiffons, the Shangri-La's, and even against some of the Shirelles' catalog-- and I love all those groups too.  I like the Raindrops more than the Supremes, though the Supremes definitely evolved a lot further.  But listen to the demo cuts for songs like "Da Doo Ron Ron (When He Walked Me Home)," "When The Boy's Happy," and "Hanky Panky," well before we knew who Tommy James And The Shondells were.  YouTube doesn't do their music a whole lot of justice, so I'd recommend getting CD's or vinyl records on the Raindrops, but some seriously great compositions that should have been MASSIVE hits include "Let's Go Together," "One More Tear," "That Boy John," "Another Boy Like Mine," "Every Little Beat," "It's So Wonderful," "Even Though You Can't Dance,"  and even their version of "Book Of Love," which did chart, but not that high.  Maybe Jeff and Ellie were such great songwriters because they were such good musicians too, and the lowly status of their demos still can't mask their greatness.  As a friend of mine once complimented another friend of mine, awesome don't come with a dimmer switch.  It's just another one of those pure but predictable tragedies that it took this woman's death to get her and Jeff, along with all the other songwriters from this class, to finally get enshrined.  With all that said, the song for Ellie is the other big hit for the Raindrops, "The Kind Of Boy You Can't Forget," which also should have been much bigger, but at least it made the Top 20, so... can't complain too much.

The Hollies:  This is the other group that went from "considered, but not nominated" to "inductee" over the course of a single cycle.  Graham Nash finally got his second induction with his first group.  I have to admit, for awhile, I was on the fence about the Hollies, and whether or not I thought they were deserving, but looking back, I think they really were.  A group named after Buddy Holly, they were also masters of intricate vocal harmonies.  Another oddly unique thing about them was their use of cymbals.  It's hard to describe precisely, but the way the cymbals are struck is actually somewhat unique to Hollies' songs.  You wouldn't think something like that could be trademark, and it's surely not the first thing you think of when you listen to their songs, but you'll notice it a lot more from now on!  Especially next time you listen to "Stop! Stop! Stop!"  The case for them was certainly weak in some regards, and yet, I would have had a hard time not voting for them, too.  It's that undeniably listenable sound that got them inducted, and perhaps no song captures it better than "Bus Stop."  A simple song with a simple story, a tight production, and flawless harmonies.  It's got it all, so it stands in here.  (Vocal Group Hall Of Fame Song Of Proof: "Look Through Any Window")

Barry Mann:  We come to the masculine half of the other married songwriting duo in this class.  Perhaps one of the reasons it took so long to get this duo inducted was that they wrote for a variety of genres and not just rock and roll.  Or maybe it was because they were Brill Building writers who manufactured rock and roll, rather than craft great songs.  It's a bunk argument either way.  Mann & Weil wrote extremely well together, helping to shape a lot of the girl group and youth culture songs of the early 1960's, the youth culture that rock and roll music is closely aligned with.  And if you know your Oldies as well as I do, the name Barry Mann should also ring a bell for another reason.  One of his songs that he wrote, he also recorded.  It was a bit of a jab at doo-wop music, particularly the nonsense lyrics used to propel the rhythmic structure of the music.  The song of course became a huge hit, and perhaps now, if Mann were to sing it, he might sing it with a little more conviction, as those nonsense lyrics were part of the first major sub-genre of rock and roll, that help the art form grow and evolve, not to mention, the song itself is considered something of a rock and roll classic from those years.  And with that, we pay tribute to this half with his own "Who Put The Bomp (In The Bomp, Bomp Bomp)," which interestingly enough, was NOT written in collaborations with his famed songwriting and marriage partner, Cynthia Weil, but was instead co-written by Gerry Goffin, of the Goffin-King songwriting and married couple.

Mort Shuman:  The reason why Non-Performer teams are split up on this set.  It took eighteen years after the induction of Doc Pomus for partner Mort Shuman to be inducted.  Yet, even in Pomus's own words, Mort had a gift for reaching the younger generation and that their partnership was indeed a true collaboration.  Typically, Shuman was the one who did the lion's share of the arrangements, but the two always made sure all the parts fit together perfectly, to make sure they had a well-written song.  And it worked so well.  The duo were frequently recorded by Elvis Presley, but even more frequently by the Drifters, who relied very heavily on the team of Pomus and Shuman to help bolster their repertoire.  In a slight deviation, though, I did not use a Drifters' song.  Or at least not the Drifters' version.  When it comes to the Non-Performers, the Drifters, along with Elvis Presley, have been getting used quite a bit, and they appear once in this class anyway.  So, to shake things up a bit, I went with the higher charting version of "This Magic Moment," from 1969, as performed by Jay And The Americans, another solidly talented American vocal group from the '60's who will almost certainly never be inducted into the Hall themselves.

Jesse Stone:  Another one of those songwriters who was there at the beginning, and maybe even preceded it just a little bit.  He wasn't nearly as prolific as the other songwriters in this class, but the songs he had were monumental.  It is sad that many of his songs had to be written under the much more Caucasian-sounding pseudonym "Charles Calhoun."  But make no mistake, it was Jesse Stone behind "Shake, Rattle, And Roll," "Your Cash Ain't Nothin' But Trash," "Flip, Flop, And Fly," and "Don't Let Go."  His songs were among the earliest empirical rock and roll records, and perhaps a bit proto, as well.  A few of his best-known songs are already being used by other recording artists, both in this project and in the Vocal Group Hall Of Fame disc set.  Fortunately, the original version of "Money Honey," from the original era of the Drifters, was still available, and as Peter Wolf showed us at the 2010 ceremony, it's easily the best song to show what a gift that keeps on giving Jesse Stone's work is to the foundation and evolution of rock and roll.

The Stooges:  Our last Performer inductee of this class, and the wildest, the Stooges took an astonishingly long time to get inducted, needing eight nominations.  Perhaps it was their lack of commercial success that caused them to stall out so many times, perhaps it's just that their music really isn't for everybody.  Maybe it was a combination of the two.  Whatever it was, the Stooges were one of the most important acts to the creation of punk rock.  They're so important to punk rock music, that Andy Zax, a member of the voting body and formerly the primary Music Geek, from the television game show "Beat The Geeks," once created a list of ten things anyone who wanted to call themselves a "music geek" must have.  The first thing on that list was the box set of the Stooges' "Fun House" sessions, saying, "Here's an easy litmus test: ask yourself, 'Do I really need to hear all twenty-seven takes of "Loose"?'  If the answer is no, you're unlikely to ever be a music geek."  Even I have yet to bite the bullet and buy that box set for my own collection, but I have to admit, that even I would love to hear all twenty-seven takes of "Loose," and I'm not even that big a fan of Uncle Iggy And Company.  That said, "Loose" is not the song chosen, nor is "I Wanna Be Your Dog."  It is in fact, the powerfully punchy, heavily driven, bombastic "Search And Destroy" that represents this outfit in this massive project.

Cynthia Weil:  The wife of the duo known as Mann And Weil.  Jon Bon Jovi could really have learned something from Cynthia Weil, who with grace and poise, gave the best hybrid of a thank-you speech and a screw-you speech.  She of course was more grateful than upset about the length of time it took, but just the very simple way of saying, "I thought you'd never ask!" that she gave from the podium to kick off all of the acceptance speeches for the songwriters had just the perfect touch.  And it is that perfect touch that she brought to the songwriting with her husband Barry Mann.  It's that perfect touch in their songs that left people saying, as Carole King said, "Yeah, that's how I feel."  Maybe that's why one of this duo's songs is officially the most played song in the history of radio.  It also may have something to do with its appearance in a certain Tom Cruise movie, but really, let's not take anything away from the fact that it was a #1 hit back in the '60's and received a ton of airplay even back then.  Despite it being about a formerly great relationship that is now circling the drain, its well-crafted words served as the perfect song for lovers going through the pain and anguish of uncertainty and the ominously overhead looming of parting ways.  Some would probably credit the production magic of Phil Spector, and that's not a bad point either.  However, just as it is said in film and theatre that it all begins with the script, so too well-written lyrics are the foundation and departure point for truly great songs.  Thus, it is both a testament to this songwriting team (who shared lyricist credit with Phil Spector in this particular instance), and the song chosen to pay respect to Cynthia Weil: the Righteous Brothers' "You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'."

And that puts a bow on our look at this class.  As I said at the top, I was more stoked for the songwriters this year.  Mort Shuman's snub over the past eighteen years was indefensible, and the omission of the two husband-wife teams was ludicrous.  I hadn't thought too hard on Otis Blackwell, but I knew the name and was very happy to hear of his induction.  I didn't know who Jesse Stone was at first, but all I needed to see were "Money Honey" and "Shake, Rattle, And Roll" to give a standing ovation to his inclusion.  I love ABBA and the Hollies, was glad prog had broken through again, that the Stooges finally got in, and have no qualms with Jimmy Cliff.  And yeah, I'll take David Geffen too.  It wasn't the best we could have gotten out of this ballot, but it makes a great CD to listen to.  How about you?  What songs would you have put on a CD, or put into a Spotify playlist?  Let me know in the Comments below.  Here's the recap:

ABBA: "Waterloo"
Jeff Barry: "What A Guy" by the Raindrops
Otis Blackwell: "All Shook Up" by Elvis Presley
Jimmy Cliff: "Wonderful World, Beautiful People"
David Geffen: "Woman" by John Lennon
Genesis: "That's All"
Ellie Greenwich: "The Kind Of Boy You Can't Forget"
the Hollies: "Bus Stop"
Barry Mann: "Who Put The Bomp (In The Bomp, Bomp, Bomp)"
Mort Shuman: "This Magic Moment" by Jay And The Americans
Jesse Stone: "Money Honey" by the Drifters
the Stooges: "Search And Destroy"
Cynthia Weil: "You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'" by the Righteous Brothers

And it is now through clenched teeth, and with several rounds of sucking in air through those clenched teeth, that I present my most embarrassing set of predictions, unedited, as the post was, on a robotic combat forum back in 2009.  After the side door induction of Wanda Jackson the year before, I began looking and keeping an eye out for other ways the Hall might shamelessly repeat that action.  So, for seeding Darlene Love, Laura Nyro, and the Chantels, my analyses of their chances included a "Wanda Jackson factor."  Other than that, have fun laughing at me.

"My first thought at looking at this ballot... they've loaded up on women this year. Five strong female presences. Usually it's a token female or something like that, but they've really stepped it up. 

In the order I think they'll make it:

KISS

In their favor: One of the most influential bands not in yet, quite possibly the most so on this ballot. Whether you love or hate them, they're a band that has a huge following, and is responsible for a LOT of young boys picking up the guitar. Regarded as one of the most overdue inductions. A solid guitar-band with serious name recognition.
Against them: Dave Marsh hates them, and his little circle of voters will probably work to keep them out. Also, not a very innovative band, musically speaking. From a technical perspective, not among the most stand out.
In the end: It took Black Sabbath eight nominations to get in, and this is only KISS's first. Nonetheless, I feel it's the only one they'll need. My odds for them: 80%

the Red Hot Chili Peppers

In their favor: The only act on here that might be more influential to rock'n'roll music than KISS. Maybe. Major force in the 90s, big in both the mainstream and underground circles. Also, with Flea giving the speech for Metallica last year, they're in some good graces with the muckity-mucks.
Against them: Too soon? They didn't break through the mainstream scene until the '90s, so that may play in. 
In the end: They're one of two newly eligibles on this year's list, and I think they're a solid pick. My odds for them: 75%

Genesis

In their favor: Prog. There has been a BIG push to get more prog acts in the Hall. Also, the proving ground for Phil Collins and Peter Gabriel. Considered somewhat innovative.
Against them: They gave us Phil Collins. Also, Genesis doesn't top anyone's list for the prog act they'd most like to see inducted. That spot is usually reserved for either Rush, Yes, or Deep Purple. And once Collins took over, their prog-ness nosedived (nosedove?) a bit, too.
In the end: There's actually a prog act on the ballot. This may not happen again for another ten years or more. Get them in while you can. My odds for them: 66.67%

the Hollies

In their favor: A widely beloved band of the British Invasion of the '60s. And there's usually a lot of love for Oldies acts, and there's only a couple that neatly fit in that box, the Hollies most noticeably so. David Crosby has spoken out in favor of them as well, and I think most want to see Graham Nash get his second induction, this one maybe more deservedly so.
Against them: There are a couple other Oldies acts on here. Also, they're a group of White men. Diversity in the list of inductees may cause them to be overlooked.
In the end: The love for the oldies acts, especially ones that played straightforward rock'n'roll is still a pretty big factor, and I believe it'll put them in. My odds for them: 55%

At this point.... it REALLY becomes a crapshoot. So, taking a leap from the Lion's head, I'll continue....

Darlene Love

In her favor: To those in the industry, VERY respected and loved. Phil Spector's main lady for his work of the early 60s. A powerful voice. And for the diversity crowd, a Black woman, which knocks out two birds with one stone. Love for the oldies may factor in a second time.
Against her: She doesn't have the name recognition that others on here have. Plus, not the only Black woman, or oldies act. Plus, the whole argument that on those recordings, Phil Spector is the true artist.... the argument he used to keep the Ronettes off the ballot until 2005. 
The Wanda Jackson factor: For those who don't know, Wanda Jackson was on the list of nominees for the 2009 ballot, but didn't get enough votes to be inducted as a Performer. So, the sub-committee that chooses Early Influences decided to induct her as an Early Influence. This opens up new and scary possibilities of workaround, cheat inductions that will come into play twice more on this ballot. In Darlene Love's case, because she was a main backup lady for Phil Spector, they may choose to induct her as a Side-Man if she doesn't get enough votes for the Performer category this year.
In the end: It really is a crapshoot at this point. I've changed my mind several times after originally choosing my top three. But, I'm going to try and walk on the water here, and say she won't need the Side-Man subcommittee to induct her this year. My odds for her induction: 53% My odds for her induction in the Performer category: 50%

Donna Summer

In her favor: She has a nickname: Queen of Disco. Always a plus factor. Again, diversity notes a Black woman, which would keep it from becoming a mulletfest. Also, possibly the foremost solo artist on this year's ballot in terms of name recognition.
Against her: Like prog, disco isn't heavily represented in the Hall. Unlike prog, though, disco has appeared several times on the ballot in the past, most notably with the five nominations of Chic. But the only disco acts in the Hall are the BeeGees and Earth, Wind, And Fire.
In the end: Darlene's my fifth pick and Donna my sixth because of the Oldies-love. Other than that, Donna would be my fifth pick. Such as it is, Donna's my pick for the Upset Special this year. My odds for her: 49%

Laura Nyro

In her favor: Well-respected singer/songwriter. She's in the realm of the artistic (second syllable pronounced "TEE") singer/songwriters also inhabited by James Taylor and Leonard Cohen. Written a lot of well-loved classic oldies. Absolutely GORGEOUS voice to boot.
Against her: Not quite as much name recognition as James Taylor or Leonard Cohen by the general public. Also, her songs are well-loved classic oldies... just not HER renditions. Her songs have become famous when later covered by acts like the Fifth Dimension, Three Dog Night, and Blood, Sweat, And Tears.
The Wanda Jackson factor: Because it's taken other acts to make her songs famous, you could make a really great sell for her to the subcommittee that chooses Non-Performer inductees. It's similar, though with some very obvious differences, to the story of Carole King's induction as a Non-Performer.
In the end: It's sad that she passed away in 1997. I would love to have heard her sing at her own induction. If she does get in, I just hope they don't have Dionne Warwick sing the tribute to her. My odds for her induction: 50% My odds for her induction in the Performer category: 45%

LL Cool J

In his favor: Well-known, well-respected rapper, and pioneer in the format. You can very clearly see, in his tracks, the bridge he provided between the rap of the early to mid-80s to rap as we know it today. Also, the only rap act on the ballot, so the ballot is not split in a way that would hurt him.
Against him: Despite two rap acts already being inducted, there's still a sentiment of "This is the ROCK'N'ROLL Hall Of Fame; rap does not belong." And those who have no problem with *some* rap acts getting in are stunned that the Beastie Boys aren't the rap act this year. Or Afrika Bambaataa. Or even the Sugarhill Gang. Also, didn't break through the mainstream arena of Pop until the late 80s/early 90s. Will it come into play?
In the end: Since rap artists have become eligible for the Hall, there's been a push to have at least one rap act on the ballot every year. There's less urgency to get him in now, especially ahead of the Beastie Boys. My odds for him: 40%

the Chantels

In their favor: Well-loved girl group. Also doo-wop. There's a soft spot for doo-wop in the Hall. Like Donna, Darlene, and ABBA, this is also the Chantels' second nomination, and odds usually improve with multiple nominations. Beautiful voices and harmonies, too.
Against them: Best known for softer love songs. Also, two stronger female presences on the ballot, and one stronger and one slightly stronger Oldies presence on the ballot. 
The Wanda Jackson factor: Because they were a 50's group, and considered the first R&B girl group that got the formula right (though they weren't the first R&B girl group in rock'n'roll history), they may be another workaround, cheat induction, and once again in the Early Influence category. This is a much harder sell than Wanda Jackson, but Wanda Jackson looked pretty farfetched when they announced her as the Early Influence inductee last year. For the record, I have nothing against Wanda Jackson. Her music is awesome. But her induction in the Early Influence category is a major eyebrow-raiser for a few good reasons. 
In the end: I love the Chantels, but being the earliest debuting act on this year's ballot isn't going to be enough for them, in my opinion. Just not enough strength. My odds for their induction: 40% My odds for their induction in the Performer category: 37.5%

Jimmy Cliff

In his favor: A true original. Unique marriage of soul, gospel, and reggae in his music. Unique voice too. Really, the only soul representative on this year's ballot, which worked for Bobby Womack last year.
Against him: Once Bob Marley is in, do you want/need another reggae representative? If so, why not Peter Tosh instead? Additionally, being the only soul representative hasn't helped Joe Tex get in, so that balances out somewhat. Also, may just simply get lost in the shuffle amidst the other acts. Someone you'd like to see in, but there'll probably usually be five acts more deserving on any given ballot to keep him out. In my opinion, the flaw lies within their selection process.
In the end: I am predicting he'll be lost in the shuffle. But keep an eye out. Even though I've got him ranked 10th most likely, he's still an interesting one to watch. If you want to know if Peter Tosh has a chance, let's see what happens with Jimmy Cliff first. My odds for him: 35%

ABBA

In their favor: Many hit songs that are memorable, and fun, and just well-loved. Also, a repeat nominees. Add to that, Mamma Mia! has catapulted their catalog back into the limelight, so there's a lot of positive hype going for them as well. A timely induction into the Hall as icing on the cake?
Against them: Again, still a strong "Disco sucks" sentiment, at least so it seems. Also, their brand of disco was bright and cheerful; not moody, funky, and conducive to grinding into a partner on the dance floor thus helping you hook up that night, which is the path that modern dance music has seriously taken, despite the fun pop-electronica that briefly surfaced in the mid-90s. Also, they're the reason we got Roxette and Ace Of Base... not highly respected followers.
In the end: With twelve nominees, the ballot-splitting factor is important, and with Donna on board as well, ABBA does not stand a strong chance. My odds for them: 25%

the Stooges

In their favor: Highly influential and innovative. Respected by past nominees. In fact, past inductees have been doing most of the pushing for them. Also, this is nomination number eight for them. Only one artist, Solomon Burke, has needed more nominations than that to get in. Five others got in on number eight. So, it appears that eight is indeed enough most of the time.
Against them: Just about everyone who pays attention to this thought the Stooges were a lock last year... and they missed. Upon further analysis, I've discovered that with the exception of their first nomination, every time they've lost, there has been a guitar-band with much more name recognition than them on the ballot that got in over them. See again, my top three choices to make it.
In the end: With KISS, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Genesis on the ballot, the Stooges are just going to get shafted again. If you want them in, make sure they're the ONLY guitar-heavy rock band on the ballot. My odds for their induction: 20%

My past track record: in 2007, I went 5/5. 2008, 4/5; and 2009, 3/5. The trend shows I could be 2/5 this year. And with twelve nominees, it's mathematically possible for me to be 0/5 this year. And with this ballot, it's a distinct possibility."