Songs Of Proof: The Class Of 2011

From a personal standpoint, 2011 was a major year.  This is the year that I would bid farewell to my radio career, my home state, friends and family, and hike across the country to the West Coast, where I now live and work.  It's a year of major change.  For the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, the Class Of 2011 featured one major change: they renamed the Sideman category to the "Award For Musical Excellence" category.  At first glance and first inductee, it really seems to be just a renaming, similar to the Non-Performer category being renamed the "Ahmet Ertegun Award."  We don't know what all the Hall plans to do with it at this point, and even now in 2018, we really still have little clue as to what they're doing with it.  Another major thing that may have slipped under the radar is the continued turn toward the popular.  Two major acts that can be said to be "of the people" make it, while the industry people get three.  Our two Ahmet Ertegun Award recipients are men whose names don't ring any bells, but once you read about them, you know they're good calls. From a cataloger's standpoint, this is a class of dodged bullets.  Depending on your bent, some inductees could be filed slightly differently, alphabetically speaking, and yet, when you look at it, there ends up being no conflict at all.  It's a relatively diverse class this year, so the songs to select have the potential to run the gamut.  Truthfully, it's another celebration involving big hits, but the hits themselves are pretty spectacular and really do sum things up well, so let's see how wide a gamut is in fact run.


Alice Cooper:  Whether you file this act under "A" or "C," this is still the first act alphabetically in this class.  Since the whole band was inducted, and no member of the band was actually named "Alice Cooper" at the initial formation, I chose to file them under the letter "A."  The solo performer born Vincent Furnier may have had a much longer run, and we Michiganders like to call him "Uncle Alice," but again, the whole band was inducted, so that's the call here, even though for this class, it's moot.  The induction of Alice Cooper marks a turn toward the popular that may have slipped beneath most hobbyists' radar.  That may have been because no one from the band ever made too great a noise about it, and probably because three of the other four Performer inductees were much more industry picks, but if there had been a fan vote for this class, it probably would have been a runoff between Alice Cooper and Neil Diamond, and because Alice Cooper is classic rock, I'd wager they still would have won that fan poll.  Actually, it would have been fellow nominee Bon Jovi, but among the five who were inducted in 2011, this band would have gotten the highest fan vote.  But the other factor that slipped below the radar of most is that the lead man of the band is comparatively conservative, politically speaking.  He himself claims to be a moderate or centrist, but by comparison to the other inductees, to the powers-that-be of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame Foundation, and to the whole of the entertainment industry, he's considered conservative by comparison.  The Hall has inducted some relatively conservative characters: Mike Love of the Beach Boys, Frank Zappa had a strong personal discipline that came off as conservative at times, Joey Ramone, etc.  These have all been relatively few and far between, so maybe nobody thought much of Alice Cooper getting in.  But it certainly was a catering to the cross-section of humanity that the muckety-mucks of the Foundation would rather pretend didn't exist, even if they didn't realize that's whom they were catering to at the time.  Furnier's onstage persona was very much that of a scary showman who delighted in the darkness.  Even when he appeared on "The Muppet Show," his storyline was that of a pitchman for a Faustian contract, working for the devil.  It's been his calling card, and that's why the song for the whole band has to be "No More Mr. Nice Guy."

Neil Diamond:  Out of the gate, we get our two picks for the populace.  Paul Simon suggested that his mammoth, smash-hit duet with Barbra Streisand played a large part in keeping Neil Diamond out of the Hall for a long time.  There perhaps is a kernel of truth to it.  Diamond's progressively softer evolution through the '70's almost serves as the epitome of rockers going mild.  With Neil Diamond though, whether it's soft or not, it's quality, which the Hall is about, or at least claims to be.  People are quick to forget the laurels he earned as a staff songwriter early in his career, and then breaking out with songs like "Cherry, Cherry," "Kentucky Woman," and of course, "Sweet Caroline."  Neil Diamond is very much a part of the fabric of rock and roll, and I think my song selection reflects that.  The song has a strong gospel influence to it, but turns it sideways with a satirical twist to it, mocking religion, particularly charismatic traditions, but isn't mean to the point where it offends people.  That's a fine line to balance, and only speaks volumes of Diamond's songwriting chops.  My choice to salute him is "Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show."

Dr. John:  Once again, a dodged grammatical bullet.  Whether you spell it "Doctor" or "Dr.," he still comes alphabetically after "Diamond" and before "Holzman."  This New Orleans musician has long reaches of influence, perhaps due to his wide-ranging work as a session musician.  Despite having been fired by Frank Zappa from the Mothers Of Invention for using drugs, Dr. John has gone on to have a long and lustrous career filled with some of the most original music that anyone has ever conceived, all of it steeped very heavily in the traditions of the Big Easy, whether it was Gris-Gris Gumbo, The Sun, Moon And Herbs, or Tango Palace.  The song selected for him is his biggest hit "Right Place, Wrong Time," which despite being cliche, also perfectly exemplifies both his New Orleans roots, and his penchant for experimenting with new sounds and new styles.

Jac Holzman:  The man founded Elektra Records, and that is primarily what he was inducted for.  Elektra Records was a home for many in the folk tradition, as well as some punk acts, and even Queen.  As an early home for Judy Collins, I chose to use her hit version of "Both Sides Now" to represent Jac Holzman in this project.  However, it's actually a pretty fascinating tale to read of his work after Elektra Records, working with the technical and technological side of the music industry.  He played a large part in the compact disc's rise to obsolesce the cassette tape, which is actually pretty monumental in its own right, as the first widespread, popular format of digitization of our music, which helps provide a longer playback lifespan with undiminished fidelity of sound quality, if the disc and player are properly maintained, whereas tapes, records, eight-tracks, wax cylinders... pretty much all forms of recorded sound prior relied on surface contact, friction if you will, to produce sound, which makes degradation inevitable.  It's almost ironic to use "Both Sides Now," as he really helped popularize the format that truly all but eliminated the need to flip the medium over to its other side.  But that's one of the little hilarious quirks about this thing called life.

Darlene Love:  There have been many acts inducted into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame that I like, but since the induction of U2, there haven't been too many that I actually love.  The Ronettes, the Dave Clark Five, the Ventures, Stevie Ray Vaughan And Double Trouble, ABBA, the Comets, the Crickets, and the more ELO I hear, the more I like, so maybe them too.  And of course, Darlene Love.  A lot of naysayers have articulated that she would have been a much better fit for Sideman or shoehorning into the newly created "Award For Musical Excellence" category, to which my response is to shoehorn those people into a box called "Award For Musical Douchebaggery."  That's right; I love Darlene Love so much, it surpasses my resolve to act like an adult.  Her singing renders me giddy as a kid.  For people who think the voice, not the guitar, is the most important instrument in rock and roll music, Darlene Love is an absolutely correct call.  Hers was a voice of such power and charisma that it rings out and says to the guitar, "Hey, try to keep up, would you?"  I have postulated before, and will now again, that Darlene Love's voice was the linchpin in Phil Spector's machine.  Hers was the cornerstone of that whole Wall Of Sound.  When she first belted it out so precisely on "He's A Rebel," it must have signaled to Spector that what he really needed and wanted was more, more from everybody.  He needed the musicians to step it up and play with enough power and energy to keep up with and complement that gorgeous, saintly voice.  And you can hear the results clearly on the follow up that Darlene and the Blossoms sang on, but was also credited to the Crystals, "He's Sure The Boy I Love."  That record was the one where you really heard the Wall Of Sound fully realized.  Choosing a song for Darlene Love in this set is a little tricky, since my rules state to make sure it's one where she is the artist of credit, and I disallowed Christmas music too.  There were still a few choices, but another song where her voice knells forth like a watchman atop a mighty strong city wall is her biggest pop hit as a solo artist, "(Today I Met) The Boy I'm Gonna Marry."  It had to be that song for her, and if you disagree with me, you're a stupid doodoohead.

Art Rupe:  As the founder of Specialty Records, he provided a home at the dawn of rock and roll for rollicking R&B artists such as Larry Williams, Lloyd Price, and Little Richard.  His label was also home to Joe Liggins.  One of the biggest hit R&B records of all time, "The Honeydripper," was on Specialty Records.  He gave a home to gospel musicians, as well as secular artists with gospel roots, like Sam Cooke and Johnnie Taylor.  He didn't back down in the face of backlash from suburban White Americans who thought the music he distributed would corrupt the youth.  In short, Art Rupe is a large part of the reason why Black culture became a part of the youth culture.  He helped change America and helped break down racial prejudices, just by proudly putting out records that were unabashedly raucous.  Not all of them were, of course, but he was a proud purveyor of that sound, and no single artist represents that better than Little Richard.  And with that, I use the wild and rocking, "Keep A Knockin'" to salute Art Rupe.

Leon Russell:  My using "Tight Rope" on this playlist doesn't do nearly enough justice to this man, one of the most multitudinous talents of the entire music industry.  The majority of his legacy is built on session work.  He worked with Phil Spector, Snuff Garrett, and so many more producers.  He was a member of the house band for the TV show "Shindig!"  I suspect part of the reason it took so long to induct this man was that every time he came up in the Sideman subcommittee, they deferred him, hoping to get him on the main ballot one of these years.  That's one possibility, anyway.  The creation of the Award For Musical Excellence category sure seemed like a renaming of the Sideman category, and inducting Leon Russell here didn't help either.  As stated already, his session work was extensive, but his records as a performing artist are also highly respected as well.  In 2008, we weren't sure what was happening with this new category.  By 2018, it sadly seems like it's little more than a "Because We Said So!" category.  Still, whatever the justification, this man absolutely deserved induction, and I'm glad they stopped wasting time and found a way to get him in.  The usage of "Tight Rope" salutes him oddly, but it also still kind of fits.  Admittedly, it was mostly about using a song by the inductee to salute the inductee, and it was his biggest hit.  But I still like it as a selection for him, so it stays.

Tom Waits:  I have to admit, I'd never heard of Tom Waits until I got to college.  His album Mule Variations was in rotation at the time, and we were playing "Big In Japan" and "Hold On."  I loved "Hold On" and didn't know what the heck to make of "Big In Japan."  And that just about sums up Tom Waits' music: you love a lot of it, and don't know what to make of a lot of it... sometimes you're describing the same song with those two sentiments.  In my selection of "Downtown Train" for Tom Waits, a little context is needed.  This is the Class Of 2011, which means the nominees were announced in 2010.  About the time the nominees were announced, my radio career was starting to advance.  I was no longer doing weekend overnights, and was now doing Friday evenings and Saturday afternoons.  So, even though I was looking to a future of moving to Washington state, I was still thinking very heavily about a radio career, trying to land in a new market despite knowing nobody and having nobody know me.  Even so, and even though my company's Oldies station had long become a Top 40 station, I was still thinking that this radio program idea could still happen on a classic rock station someday, especially with a steady increase (now a runaway) of classic rock acts getting inducted, so even though I would have loved to use "The Piano Has Been Drinkin'," there was still a sense of needing something sensible for broadcast radio.  "Downtown Train" is definitely that, as well as a tribute to his influence, as it has been widely covered.  It's a well-written song, and Waits is definitely known for his songwriting.  So, overall, this is still a good song to use.

And with those eight songs, we have come to the end of another class.  It was a class that is a hard to singularly describe.  It definitely caters to the Oldies crowd a bit, but it's still hard to call a bad class.  Maybe it's just me, since I'm a big fan of Darlene Love and also enjoy Neil Diamond and Alice Cooper quite a lot.  How about you?  What acts from this ballot did you prefer?  What songs would you use?  Make a note of it in the Comments below.  Recapping:

Alice Cooper: "No More Mr. Nice Guy"
Neil Diamond: "Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show"
Dr. John: "Right Place, Wrong Time"
Jac Holzman: "Both Sides Now" by Judy Collins
Darlene Love: "(Today I Met) The Boy I'm Gonna Marry"
Art Rupe: "Keep A Knockin'" by Little Richard
Leon Russell: "Tight Rope"
Tom Waits: "Downtown Train"

As for this ballot, I did indeed post predictions again, but it was on a different forum than before.  I'm surprised I was able to find it.  Anyway, I went 2/5 again, but it wasn't as embarrassing this time, because only one of my bottom three seeds made it instead of all three of the bottom seeds.  So here is the unedited, copied as it was, post from 2010 for this class.  As you'll note, I somehow thought voters could choose up to eight names.  I also made predictions for the other categories this time, too.  Still waiting on Doug Morris, though.  Enjoy:

And now for my lengthy analysis... may I do better than I did last year. Trying to be in depth here. Sorry if the length bores you.

Predictions on the 2011 nominees for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame

Looking at this year’s ballot, we see 15 nominees: Alice Cooper, the Beastie Boys, Bon Jovi, Chic, Neil Diamond, Doctor John, Donovan, the J. Geils Band, LL Cool J, Darlene Love, Laura Nyro, Donna Summer, Joe Tex, Tom Waits, and Chuck Willis. A group of roughly 600 voters will determine the inductees, and each voter is allowed to vote for up to eight candidates. Those with a high enough percentage of the votes will get in. We’re looking at about five to eight inductees for this year. I think there will be only five, as 2005 and 2006 had fifteen and sixteen nominees respectively, with only five inductees both years.

Sixty percent of this year’s nominees are repeats, and another one-third of them are those whose names have come up before in discussion, but hadn’t yet made it to the final ballot. So let’s break them down and make some predictions:


1. Donovan

British folk troubadour whose music included psychedelic tones. The only act on this year’s ballot that had never even been seriously brought up for discussion before.

Why he might make it: He’s a clever singer/songwriter with an impressive string of commercially successful hits, some of which are still known today. Embracing both the lighter and darker sides of folk, he’s considered a pretty artsy artist overall.

Why he might not: Despite first charting in 1965, he’s considered something of a latecomer to the folk-rock game and the British Invasion scene. As well as not really considered all that influential or innovative, he’s always been seen as middling: there, but seldom really rising to the top of the heap. Also, from the very beginning, he has frequently been compared to Bob Dylan, which is always going to be a losing battle unless your name is Smokey Robinson. Despite his efforts to break away from that, he keeps getting rated side-by-side with Dylan. 

Whom he’d pave the way for: He represents both the British Invasion (the only candidate on this year’s ballot not from the U.S.A.) and folk rock. So he could open the door for other 60’s British acts not in yet, like the Moody Blues, Herman’s Hermits, Manfred Mann, and Procol Harum; as well as other folk stars, like Joan Baez, Judy Collins, the Kingston Trio, and Peter, Paul, And Mary.

Who’s his biggest threat: Tom Waits’ artier style of writing, Neil Diamond’s sheer commercial success, and Laura Nyro’s soulful endeavors, and even Dr. John’s acclaim within inner circles are all liabilities for Donovan.

If I got a ballot: Play pretend time! Whom would I pick? If I got to pick up to eight artists, Donovan would get my vote, being the fourth name I would pick.

In the end: The voters love folk-rock and the British Invasion a little too much to ignore him. Induction chances: 75% 


2. Tom Waits

A gravelly voiced singer/songwriter whose compositions have been recorded by a myriad of artists. First-time nominee.

Why he might make it: He’s a heavily influential singer and songwriter, as well as something of an icon of the independent label and underground facets of rock and roll. Additionally, he’s really the only name on the list that represents the indie/underground scene.

Why he might not: For all his acclaim, he’s never broken through as a performer in mainstream form. A number of his albums have charted on the Top 200, but no individual song charted on any chart, not even the Album Tracks chart, which doesn’t necessitate the release of a song as a single. Ergo, he doesn’t have quite the name recognition as some of the other nominees, or the popularity that goes with being known. And while he is the only real indie representative, he’s not the only singer/songwriter on the ballot.

Whom he’d pave the way for: If Waits gets in, it could be what ushers in a tidal wave of independent label and underground rockers from the ‘80s to make it in as well, such as the Replacements, the Jam, the Smiths, Joy Division, and many others.

Who’s his biggest threat? More popular singer/songwriters Neil Diamond and Donovan are his biggest competitors, and Laura Nyro may be an x-factor as well.

If I got a ballot: Play-pretend time! Whom would I pick? If I got to pick up to eight to vote for, Waits would indeed be one of them. He’d be the fifth one I’d give the check mark to.

In the end: With more freedom allowed in voting, there’s both less and more pressure to be diverse with the choices, so Waits could get overlooked, but he’s been around long enough to where he’s going to appeal to too many voters. Induction chances: 70%


3. The J. Geils Band

A good-time, good-feeling rock and roll band with blues overtones. This is their third nomination.

Why they might make it: They’re a band that you can just point to and say, “Yes, that IS rock and roll.” They have a decent list of fun hits (and non-hits) that people from a variety of walks of life can appreciate. Charting on the R&B charts once or twice doesn’t hurt either, as some of the higher-ups in the inner circle hold the belief that R&B is more true to what rock and roll really is than heavy metal. From the inside, either Geils himself or lead singer Peter Wolf is friends with the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame Foundation President Jann S. Wenner, and if you think his opinion doesn’t carry any weight with the voting bloc, stop reading now. Seriously. Lastly, Wolf’s tribute paid to songwriter Jesse Stone last year, in addition to being memorably standout, also puts his band fresh in the mind of voters again as to why they were loved back in the day.

Why they might not: They were never considered innovative or influential. Also, Peter Wolf’s going solo put a halt on the band’s train of commercial success, and having only recently reunited, that’s still a significant loss of momentum.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Good question. They don’t really represent a camp of overlooked artists. At least none that are currently eligible. Maybe other past nominees that don’t neatly fit into one camp either like War or the Paul Butterfield Blues Band?

Who’s their biggest threat: Bon Jovi is their biggest threat, hands down, as another rock band that had major success in the 80’s. Other than that, the fact that they don’t fit neatly into any one camp is their biggest obstacle. Voters are likely to pick a diverse list by choosing which artist best represents a section of the rock and roll diaspora. Not being in a major significant section makes it difficult.

If I got a ballot: I’d mark them down. They’d just make the cut though, as my eighth selection.

In the end: It’s hard to predict in favor of a band that lost out to Percy Sledge in 2005, but they wouldn’t be the first to lose out to Percy and make it at a later time. I’m thinking they might squeak through, despite being the eighth selection on a lot of actual voters’ ballots. Induction chances: 55%


4. The Beastie Boys

Trio of white rappers that combined hip-hop with punk rock. Second-time nominee.

Why they might make it: They introduced hip-hop to the suburban audience, which paved the way for the triumph of rap as the dominant style of music on the Billboard Hot 100. Also, by blending punk rock with hip-hop, it’s pretty much impossible to say they aren’t rock and roll, even if you believe rap is not a part of rock and roll (it is). On that note, the Nominating Committee keeps pushing for more rap artists. They got one inducted in 2007, another in 2009, so we’re due for one this year.

Why they might not: The last time they were nominated, there was a second hip-hop act on the ballot, and they cancelled each other out, both failing to get in. There’s a second rapper on this year’s ballot too. Additionally, after not making the cut last time out, one member was heard to say, “We really don’t care if we get in or not.” While that isn’t the most scathing dismissal of the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame (see Daryl Hall And John Oates, Toto, Steve Miller), it may just sway voters to cast their ballot for an act that would actually appreciate the honor just a bit more.

Whom they’d pave the way for: They could be the group that gets in so that other rap groups like Public Enemy, N.W.A., and the Sugarhill Gang can get in.

Who’s their biggest threat: LL Cool J is the other rapper on this list, and he’s the favorite of somewhat vocal Nominating Committee member Toure. Other hard rockers like Alice Cooper and Bon Jovi might be a hindrance, too.

If I got a ballot: I rank them as my second choice to vote for, so yes, they’d get my approval, as they would have the last time they were nominated.

In the end: The powers-that-be will want a rap act in this year, after not getting one last time. I think the Beastie Boys have the slight advantage, despite their indifference to the honor. Induction chances: 55%


5. Neil Diamond

A songwriting and singing legend with a career spanning over a full four decades. First time nominee.

Why he might make it: He’s a prolific songwriter who’s respected because he paid his dues as just a songwriter before finally breaking big in the late ‘60s with a successive string of pop-rock gems that people of all ages still enjoy to this day.

Why he might not: For starters, his image. His flashy and bright attire doesn’t really symbolize anything counter-cultural, nor anything about his image really paints a progressive picture. And while his songs from the 60’s and early 70’s are what build the case for him, his recordings after that almost tear down said case. “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers,” his #1 hit duet with Barbra Streisand, may just symbolize a great deal of what people say is NOT what rock and roll is about. Also not regarded as being widely innovative or influential.

Whom he’d pave the way for: Other popular singer/songwriters might be able to follow in Diamond’s steps, such as Jim Croce, Carly Simon, Don McLean, or Cat Stevens. Also, his induction might help push other soft-rock acts to get in, like Bread and the Carpenters.

Who’s his biggest threat? Fellow sixties singer/songwriter Donovan might make things tough for him, as would Tom Waits, who represents a more highbrow artistic rock.

If I got a ballot: Neil Diamond would make the cut, coming in at number six on my pecking order.

In the end: Critics do not really hate him, and he is beloved by his fellow performers, so he stands a real chance. Dead even. Induction chances: 50%


6. Donna Summer

One of the key figures of disco during the 70’s and early 80’s. Third-time nominee.

Why she might get in: She’s royalty… the “Queen Of Disco.” Other than Neil Diamond, she’s got the longest list of hit singles than any of the artists on the ballot. Very influential female singer, influencing the already-inducted Madonna, as well as other starlets of dance music. There’s also an affirmative action side to consider, as there’s usually an effort to induct at least one racial minority, and one woman. She fits both bills nicely and conveniently.

Why she might not: Don’t kid yourself, there’s a bias against disco, with the Bee Gees, ABBA, and Earth, Wind, And Fire representing the style—and even then some would claim ABBA and Earth, Wind, And Fire aren’t really all that disco either. She’s missed out on tighter ballots before, too, ones that had fewer nominees. 

Whom she’d pave the way for: The biggest and most obvious choice is Janet Jackson, Whitney Houston running a relatively close second. However, Summer might also clear the path for female rockers Pat Benatar, Heart, and Joan Jett as well.

Who’s her biggest threat: Fellow disco act Chic appeared on the ballot with Summer in 2008 (as did the Beastie Boys), and both missed. Chic’s back and is her biggest threat. Also, returning female presences from last year such as Darlene Love and Laura Nyro could hurt, and even Joe Tex and Chuck Willis could be a block for her.

If I got a ballot: Albeit not the highest choice for me, she’s my seventh pick, and so would pass the bar this year with me.

In the end: She stands a real chance, but may fall short. While it may happen, it’s no guarantee that there will be more than five inductees in 2011. If there will be, I’d say she’s in. Otherwise, she’s my pick again for the upset special this year. Induction chances: 49%


7. Alice Cooper

Hard-rock band known for pioneering new styles of stage performance, as well as progenitors of glam. First time nominee.

Why they might make it: They were an influential band with some innovation. While fully evolving the rebellious nature that rock and roll was thought to embody in its early days, they still managed to be a well-known name in the music world, even when the name only applied to the lead singer. They’re also a band that is well beloved and touted by the public as a long-time criminal snub.

Why they might not: Their innovation was more in the stage shows they presented, which is of secondary importance to the music itself. Also, the voting bloc is comprised of musicians and critics… not the common man. Those who have the appeal with the common man usually take multiple ballots before they get in: Black Sabbath needed eight; Lynyrd Skynyrd, seven; John Cougar Mellencamp, three, and on their first try, Kiss missed last year, despite being favorites to the public. The band was not all that loved by critics, ever, and critics make up a third of the bloc, which, while not a majority, can certainly put a kink in their hopes. Politics may be a factor as well.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Other hard rock legends could soon come through, like Ted Nugent and Ozzy Osbourne (who’s in with Black Sabbath, but not as a solo artist). This could also be the pick of the hard rock/prog subcommittee this year, so it could be once they’re in, bands like Yes, Rush, Electric Light Orchestra, Slayer, Pantera, etc. will all starting getting some consideration.

Who’s their biggest threat: Bon Jovi is probably the hardest rocking act after Alice Cooper, and the Beastie Boys certainly were hard in their punk side of rap, so they might be an inhibition as well. And there’s a chance the voters will go R&B heavy this year too.

If I got a ballot: Number three pick on my list. They’d get a nod from me.

In the end: The early buzz is actually quite favorable for Alice Cooper, who’ve been nominated as a band, and not just the lead singer born Vincent Furnier, though the name “Alice Cooper” would be enshrined, so it would likely include the solo years too. Voters getting to pick up to eight this year tells me there’s room for him, but past experience tells me don’t bet on it. I think he’s a dead-even split. Induction chances: 45%


8. LL Cool J

One of hip-hop’s very first solo superstars. This is his second nomination.

Why he might make it: Hip-hop was dominated in the early days by groups: the Sugarhill Gang, Grandmaster Flash And The Furious Five, Run-D.M.C., etc. LL Cool J was one of the first solo superstars, especially in terms of crossing over to the pop charts and audience. Now, hip-hop is dominated by solo artists, because of rappers like him. He also helped create the bridge that changed R&B into the more sultry style that it became in the ‘90s and still exists to this day.

Why he might not: Despite the smaller ballot, LL Cool J couldn’t get inducted last year as the only hip-hop artist on the ballot. Also, some might resent the direction he helped R&B take.

Who he’d pave the way for: Other rap solo artists loom on the horizon: Ice-T is already eligible, and soon enough we’ll see Jay-Z, Ja Rule, and Snoop Dogg getting looks.

Who’s his biggest threat: The Beastie Boys are the most obvious threat, but don’t overlook Donna Summer as an R&B superstar, or even Chic who’ve been sampled many, many times on hip-hop records. 

If I got a ballot: If he were the only hip-hop artist on the ballot, I might consider placing the check mark by his name. As it is, I’m pulling more for the Beastie Boys, and place LL Cool J at number thirteen in my pecking order.

In the end: This is his second consecutive nomination, so someone’s pulling for him, but I think it’ll take another ballot, unless they do induct eight, in which case, he could be the shocker of the year. Induction chances: 40%


9. Bon Jovi

Hard rock group that dominated the 1980’s and still continues to have hit records. First-time nominee.

Why they might make it: The Hall Of Fame has been trying to skew younger, to attract a younger audience to what they do and to the museum, and this group fits the bill about as well as possible while still being around for at least the minimum 25 years prior to eligibility. They were also a wildly successful hair-metal band, and considered among the more talented bands in that genre. Add in Jon’s friendship with Jann Wenner, and you have possibilities.

Why they might not: Hair metal is just not artistically respected, and again, a third of the voters are music critics. Also, some voters may prefer to vote for acts who’ve been around longer, saying there’ll be plenty of time to induct this band later – basically, what may have been part of the Red Hot Chili Peppers’ failure to make the grade last year. Again, as a band that appeals more to the working man, it may backfire against them in this regard.

Whom they’d pave the way for: The big hair bands of the 80’s are knocking on the Hall’s doors. Def Leppard, Motley Crue, Twisted Sister, the not-yet eligible Guns ‘N’ Roses are all those who’d likely follow, as well as possibly other arena rock bands like Journey, Styx, and Foreigner.

Who’s their biggest threat: The J. Geils Band and Alice Cooper are definitely the biggest competition that could keep Bon Jovi out. 

If I got a ballot: Voters only get to pick up to eight candidates. It’d be heartbreaking cut, but Bon Jovi finishes ninth with me, not getting my support. This time.

In the end: The ballot as I see it right now is already pretty heavy with the classic rock and pop-rock scene, and there’s often a desire for more R&B on the ballot. They could get lost in the shuffle this time. Induction chances: 35%


10. Chic

R&B/disco group fronted by a crackerjack production team. This is their sixth appearance on the ballot.

Why they might make it: Their records were sampled far and wide back in the early days of hip-hop, so the influence factor is definitely in their favor. From a musical standpoint, their bass and guitar lines are considered very tough to imitate or duplicate. The men in the group were all production geniuses. Also, Nile Rodgers was on the Nominating Committee back when the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame was first founded, so politically, this an attempt to repay the favor to him.

Why they might not: Hall Of Fame watchdogs like me have a term we call “Chic Syndrome,” which is used to describe a musically proficient act that many are turned off from by the cerebrally detoured lyrics, which you see in Chic songs, though they are hardly the worst offenders. It’s simply called “Chic Syndrome” because aside from the near alliteration, Chic’s the group that’s been repeatedly nominated and denied. “Le Freak,” “I Want Your Love,” and “Dance, Dance, Dance (Yowzah, Yowzah, Yowzah)” wouldn’t make any list of “Best Lyrics”, even if that list went to one million. And as we see with Donna Summer, disco isn’t popular with the voting bloc.

Whom they’d pave the way for: Other disco groups waiting in the wings include the GAP Band, KC And The Sunshine Band, and maybe even the Ohio Players. It could even lead to inducting more soul-funk groups like the Bar-Kays, the Average White Band, and Charles Wright And The Watts 103rd Street (Rhythm) Band.

Who’s their biggest threat: This isn’t the first time that Donna Summer and Chic have appeared on the ballot together and both fell short of the mark. Donna’s the biggest threat, with LL Cool J not far behind. Fellow six-time nominee Chuck Willis may get the sympathy vote this year, too, and not Chic.

If I got a ballot: My disco vote would be for Donna Summer, not Chic, and so Chic ranks twelfth on my list of those who’d get my vote this year. No vote from me.

In the end: Chic’s gonna get in eventually, but it won’t be this year. But definitely with either their seventh or eighth nomination. Induction chances: 33.3%


11. Darlene Love

A pop-rock singer with a powerful voice, most famously recording for Phil Spector in the early ‘60s. Third-time nominee.

Why she might make it: She’s got support from both Little Steven and Dave Marsh, who represent two different ends of one spectrum used to describe the Nominating Committee and the voting bloc. With two-thirds of the voting bloc being current inductees (mostly musicians), she might be able to curry favor with those who feel professional respect for her. Musically, she was a lynchpin in the creation of Phil Spector’s legendary wall of sound, as she showed how singers were going to have to sing to keep up with the musicians who had a newfound liberty to play louder, thanks in part to Darlene Love. She’s considered a pretty well kept secret in the music of the ‘60’s.

Why she might not: She may have been a secret a little too well kept. She’s not known for innovation. Or influence. Or for any of her songs really. When the song you’re best known for is a Christmas song, you’ve got a tough road ahead for Hall Of Fame induction. She sang on a couple well-known songs—songs that were credited to the Crystals. Also, as was argued against the Ronettes, all the music artistry could be argued to belong to Phil Spector, not to any of the artists who recorded for him. Lastly, there are arguments that she was more of a session singer, and if she were to be inducted, the Side-Man category, not Performer, is the more appropriate choice.

Whom she’d pave the way for: Female pop stars of the ‘60s seem to be the most obvious choices for later nominations, including the girl groups the Crystals, the Shangri-Las, the Marvelettes, as well as solo singer and teen queen Lesley Gore.

Who’s her biggest threat: Her biggest rivals for ballot space are Donna Summer and Chuck Willis. Joe Tex might be an issue, too, as well as Laura Nyro.

If I had a ballot: I absolutely love Darlene Love’s voice and everything she’s done. She would be the first name that I would put the check mark of approval next to. I’d underline and circle her name, too.

In the end: Unfortunately, I don’t get a vote. And those who do will see her as a minor player at best, doomed to be kept out. Induction chances: 30%


12. Joe Tex

A scratchy-voiced soul singer, who wrote his own hits. This is his fourth nomination.

Why he might make it: There’s always respect for those who write their own hits, and put together a string of hits. Music historians also cite his raspy vocal delivery as being influential in the development of the vocal delivery in rap music. There’s also usually a lot of love for soul singers, and he’s the only real soul singer on this year’s ballot.

Why he might not: He’s lost out on past ballots where he’s been the only soul candidate, especially in the face of other prominent forms of R&B also represented on the ballot. Additionally, three of his four biggest hits on the Billboard Hot 100 were songs that bordered on being novelty records, which makes it hard to take his music seriously, let alone him as a candidate for the Hall Of Fame.

Whom he’d pave the way for: If they can finally get Joe Tex in, it might open the door for the “Soul Philosopher” Johnnie Taylor, but more importantly, for soul groups that debuted in the ‘60s but broke big in the ‘70s, like the Spinners, the Del-Fonics, the Chi-Lites, the Stylistics, and Harold Melvin And The Blue Notes.

Who’s his biggest threat: Darlene Love and Chuck Willis are the biggest competition, as well as Donna Summer and LL Cool J.

If I got a ballot: As much as I love soul music, Joe Tex is not someone who’d get my vote this time, as he comes in at number fourteen for me.

In the end: Historically, 1997 is the only year where an artist has gotten in on their fourth nomination, and I think it’ll remain that way for now. Induction chances: 25%


13. Chuck Willis

An R&B singer who was known as the “Stroll King” and “Sheik Of The Blues.” Sixth-time nominee.

Why he might make it: His music kicked off the stroll craze of the ‘50s, the stroll being a popular dance, and as such, makes him a progenitor of all dance music that falls under the umbrella of rock ‘n’ roll. He’s one of the R&B artists that were around before rock ‘n’ roll music really burst onto the scene in 1955, and as such, he was on hand to help usher in the new era. 

Why he might not: He died in 1958, and as such never got to realize his full potential. Consequently, his is not a name that is often remembered when naming off the founding fathers of rock ‘n’ roll. Also, though a six-time nominee, this is the first time he’s been nominated in the past 20 years. So, his nomination is a bit of a surprise. Lastly, he could just as easily be inducted as an Early Influence, since he did slightly predate rock ‘n’ roll’s becoming mainstream.

Whom he’d pave the way for: His induction might re-open the doors for others who haven’t been nominated since the ‘80s, i.e. Johnny Ace, Esther Phillips, Mary Wells, and the solo career of Ben E. King. It may also revive the efforts to induct R&B groups that were also around to help usher in the new rock era, such as the Dominoes and the “5” Royales.

Who’s his biggest threat: Darlene Love fits the pre-British Invasion era selection quite nicely too. Dance music is represented well by Donna Summer and Chic, and Joe Tex would also fill in an R&B slot Willis might otherwise be able to grab.

If I got a ballot: While he certainly is deserving, the constraints of being only allowed to choose eight would leave him out in the cold on my ballot. He finishes at number eleven in my pecking order. 

In the end: I can’t help but wonder if the only reason he’s on this year’s ballot is so that Chic won’t be alone at the top of the “most nominations without being yet inducted” list with six nominations. Induction chances: 20%


14. Dr. John

A New Orleans-based singer/songwriter who infused various styles into his sound. First-time nominee.

Why he might make it: He’s a true original, and there isn’t another performer quite like him. He also puts on quite a live performance, which Buddy Guy’s induction in 2005 shows is quite an asset. He’s also infused a lot of different styles into his New Orleans-based sound, which always draws respect.

Why he might not: You can’t tell what a good musician he is by listening to his records, as he leaves his best stuff for the live shows. There also isn’t much name recognition, as he didn’t have very many hits, and his albums were never huge sellers, either. Also as with Darlene Love, some argue he’d be a better fit as a Side-Man inductee.

Whom he’d pave the way for: Tough to decide, but I think zydeco music would start being recognized if Dr. John got in, and maybe other session men that put out records, like Ry Cooder and Leon Russell.

Who’s his biggest threat: The J. Geils Band is the next bluesiest act, Donovan has a psychedelic edge that competes with Dr. John’s funky style, and Tom Waits has the edge in terms of singer/songwriters who seldom became big news.

If I got a ballot: There’re just too many big fish on this year’s ballot. Dr. John comes in dead last for me, number fifteen.

In the end: The fact that he’s not really a threat to anyone else on the ballot may mean he could quietly slip through, but more than likely, it’s a matter of too many bigger and possibly better choices to make this year. Induction chances: 15%


15. Laura Nyro

A blue-eyed-soul singer/songwriter who has had her compositions recorded by many artists. Second-time nominee.

Why she might make it: She’s been widely covered by many artists, and is well respected as a songwriter. Also, good blue-eyed soul artists usually get in eventually. There’s another interesting factor to note: they changed the voting process this year from top five vote recipients to those who receive a certain percentage of the vote. This isn’t so interesting until you realize that four of this year’s nominees were on last year’s ballot but missed out. So maybe they changed it because it ran so close, but only five could get in? Laura Nyro is one of those four, so maybe she was a near miss last year. 

Why she might not: She had very few, very minor hits. Almost none of the artists who had the hit versions of her songs are in the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame either. Lastly, she’s better known as a songwriter, so there’s the claim that she’d be a better fit for the Non-Performer category.

Whom she’d pave the way for: There are only a few serious blue-eyed soul candidates left such as Mitch Ryder And The Detroit Wheels, and Daryl Hall And John Oates, so they could follow after her. She might also open the door for artists that made hits out of her songs, like Three Dog Night, the Fifth Dimension, or Blood, Sweat, And Tears. She could even make it possible for Buffy Saint-Marie to garner consideration.

Who’s her biggest threat: Tom Waits, Neil Diamond, Donovan, Joe Tex, and Dr. John are all singer/songwriters, and Donna Summer and Darlene Love (as well as Chic) are a good supply of female artists that all stand in her way.

If I got a ballot: I love her voice, but she ranks number ten on my list this year, so she would be omitted by me.

In the end: She might be one of those names that there’ll always be at least five other names more popular than, and as such, will always have a struggle getting in. Unless she gets a Non-Performer nod, this won’t be the year she gets in. Induction chances: 10%


Other categories:

The Performer category is the most exciting race to watch for two reasons: one, it’s the one where the average person has the best chance at recognizing names that they relate any personal memories to; two, it’s the only category that has a selection process that occurs over a the course of months and which the public is even kept apprised of in any way. But the Performer category is not the only induction category. There are:

Non-Performers: For those whose contributions were more as songwriter, producer, record label owner, publicist, etc. than any actual musical contribution. Last year, Roger Friedman of Fox News reported that David Geffen would be inducted in 2010 and Doug Morris in 2011. Since David Geffen was indeed inducted in 2010, Friedman’s prophecy about Doug Morris is forefront in the minds of Rock Hall monitors like myself. With the inductions of so many of the great songwriters this past year, it’s unlikely they’ll go with another songwriter for a year or two, unless it’s Laura Nyro, who might be inducted as a Non-Performer if she misses again on this ballot.

Early Influences: For those that predate the Rock era and so weren’t really rock and roll in their music, but the music they did put out was influential in the development of rock and roll. There hasn’t been a legitimate induction in this category since 2000, though in 2009 they inducted Wanda Jackson, whose music did not predate the Rock era, and was definitely rock and roll. This year, Chuck Willis stands a chance of being inducted as an Early Influence if he doesn’t get in as a Performer. Since the greater part of his career did predate the rock era, this would actually be a somewhat legitimate induction, but there are still hopes out there that we’ll soon see the Ravens and Django Reinhardt inducted as an Early Influence.

Side-Man: Session musicians who made a profound impact get inducted here. Earlier this year, Elton John was pushing to get Leon Russell as a nominee for Performer, but he didn’t make the cut. However, Leon Russell’s probably one of the best choices for the Side-Man category. As with last year, Darlene Love is a possible choice for her work as a back-up singer, but they have yet to induct anyone as a Side-Man for back-up vocal work, and if they were to do it, the Jordanaires would probably be the most solid pick. Still, other possibilities range from members of the Wrecking Crew to members of the Funk Brothers, to members of the E Street Band.