And now, the end is near, and so I make my end predictions. My friends, I seed them all, breaking down odds with several sections. Merits and politics, their sounds and lanes on alleg'd highways. But more, much more than this, I seed them my way.
And yet, as I type this, a lot of people have agreed with me in some eerily similar ways. I love it though, and I'm here for it. It does make me feel a little less of an outlier at times. But with this particular ballot, and the hand that the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame played last year, there are all sorts of caveats to be had, and we'll get to those after I finish planting my seeds in a row. As a reminder, all odds are arbitrary and don't exactly follow the rules and bylaws that statistical analysis ought. I'm a rebel like that. Let's get planting.
1. EMINEM
White rapper, megastar of the early 21st century. Newly eligible.
Why he might make it: There's a lot of feeling of inevitability with this man. This is a name the Hall wants and is not wont to wait to enshrine. He has mass appeal, massive sales, critical acclaim, and has shown up to the Hall, for the Hall in the past, including last year.
Why he might not: He's... problematic. His history and his lyrics are a bit unsettling at times, and reflect some seriously ugly thoughts that some voters would rather keep buried. Calling him the Ted Nugent of rap might be going too far, since Eminem's talent is unquestionable, but the way he uses that talent sometimes falls short of the ideal that might have been used to describe Camelot, or even a decent human being.
Whom he'd pave the way for: Other superstar rappers like 50 Cent will be eligible soon. Also, the Hall may avail themselves to reach back a couple years and finally nominate Outkast.
Biggest threats: A Tribe Called Quest is the direct hip-hop competition, and Beck is the other artistic soloist from the same era that gets love from critics and fans alike.
In the end: This isn't entirely a foregone conclusion, but it sure feels like it at times. And maybe some just won't vote for him because they figure he doesn't need their vote. But those who are thinking about the broadcast or otherwise chasing the bottom line will make sure the box is checked for him. Odds of induction: 90%
2. DURAN DURAN
New-wave/synth-rock band, most popular during the 1980s. First-time nominee.
Why they might make it: This is a band with massive popularity, longevity, and represents the era that John Sykes is definitely looking to maximize right now: the golden age of MTV.
Why they might not: The critics that like them now are either doing so in hindsight, or weren't around when Duran Duran was at the height of their popularity. Additionally, some still dismiss them as being a pretty boy band, and not serious.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Stylistically, there aren't too many who even come close to being as good as Duran Duran, let alone as popular. Simple Minds have been "previously considered," so that's about the only one of their contemporaries I'd list.
Biggest threats: Eurythmics and Devo both occupy the new-wave space, and Pat Benatar is an important figure from the early days of MTV. Kate Bush is also an innovator from that time.
In the end: Topping the fan vote usually bodes well, not as a guarantee so much, but as an indicator, a weather vane, maybe. The smart money is still on them. Odds of induction: 80%
3. PAT BENATAR
Female rock star, nominated with her husband and guitarist, Neil Giraldo. Second-time nominee, seeded #1 for the Class Of 2020. Oops.
Why she might make it: She appeals to those who want more women in the Hall, as well as those with a myopic definition of rock and roll that follows the traditions of acts like the Beatles and Led Zeppelin. Also, she's the most popular (commercially charted) act of the "classic rock" ilk on this ballot; so the lane appears to be somewhat clear for her.
Why she might not: Somehow she missed last time. Whatever reasons she wasn't voted for last time could resurface. Those with the aforementioned myopic definition sometimes want to limit it to full band units, i.e. those with at least a drummer and bassist, too. Solo performers need not apply, in their opinion.In the end: It simply may have been too crowded a field last time, where Pat got lost in the shuffle. Less crowded now, and even Eddie Trunk voted for her. Things look a lot better this time for her. Not a lock by any stretch though. Odds of induction: 70%
Why they might make it: They're one of the most important heavy metal acts of all time, let alone those not yet in the Hall. Innovative, influential in both sound and image, they've got the resume for induction.
Why they might make it: Their sound is infectious and one of those that might contend for epitomizing the entire decade of the 1980s. Additionally, Annie Lennox as both a musician and a public figure for femininity and feminism, makes them a formidable contender. Dave Stewart's production genius and industry connections help, too.
Why she might make it: She has a lengthy career, has worked with a lot of big names, and is having a huge resurgence in popularity due to Twitter. The Hall does like to strike while the iron is hot.
Why she might not: Most of her big hits were either hits on the Adult Contemporary charts, or could have been. Songs she made popular could have fit very comfortably on The Lawrence Welk Show back in the '60s, which is to say some have trouble considering her all that "rock and roll." For crying out loud, even Perry Como covered "That's What Friends Are For."
Whom she'd pave the way for: An induction for Warwick would probably lead to the induction of the songwriting duo of Burt Bacharach & Hal David in the Non-Performer category. Because of her collaboration, she could help the Spinners get nominated again, or maybe get nominations for other women of the earlier years, like Connie Francis.
Biggest threats: Carly Simon and Lionel Richie are the most direct competition, in my opinion. Popular women artists Pat Benatar and Eurythmics could also steal some votes.
In the end: From the votes that we know have been cast, she's got a pretty good shot. And the older inductees may vote for her as a name they recognize. I just don't think it'll quite be enough. Odds of induction: 37.5%
11. A TRIBE CALLED QUEST
Hip-hop act from the early '90s. First-time nominee.
Why they might make it: They're pioneers of a certain style of hip-hop, artistic, dare I say literate, and the membership formed a kind of synergy, resulting in some amazing beats and jams.
Why they might not: Very little name recognition. And if you've heard of them, you still maybe can't name a single song by them. Not a steady presence in the pop charts, and thus, didn't break as big as some other names on the ballot.
Whom they'd pave the way for: An induction for this group could open the doors for De La Soul, Wu-Tang Clan, and a return nomination for Eric B. And Rakim.
Biggest threats: Eminem is the bigger rap name on the ballot that more people will recognize. Rage Against The Machine and Beck both had some rap elements to their songs and were from the same decade, so they also could steal votes.
In the end: Again, the sample we have is very promising for A Tribe Called Quest, but it's also very heavily slanted and niche. Like when the early polls in an otherwise red state show the Democratic candidate in an early lead. There's some initial surprise, followed by the realization that there are many more precincts to report yet. If we couldn't have two rap inductees in the Performer category when Public Enemy and N.W.A. were on the ballot, it's definitely not happening here either. Odds of induction: 35%
12. FELA KUTI
Afrobeat pioneer. Second-time nominee, seeded #14 for 2021.
Why he might make it: One thing that a nomination for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame will do, and that the Hall does right in this regard, is bring greater awareness to great artists that the general populace is unfamiliar with. The curiosity of the name has sparked curiosity of the music, and the interest has been sparked in many.
Why he might not: Aaaanndd there have been many others who have dug in their heels, doubled down on the willful ignorance, insisting being big in the U.S. is the bar to clear. What percentage of those people are in the voting bloc may be higher than we wish to acknowledge. He just has almost no name recognition in the States.
Whom he'd pave the way for: A whole continent of musical greatness awaits. The most likely would probably be Yassou N'Dour, who has worked with a few names well-known to the English-speaking world, like Peter Gabriel. King Sunny Ade and Sun Ra could get some recognition as well.
Biggest threats: His own obscurity in the United States. For the sake of what this heading is supposed to mean, Rage Against The Machine released a lot of political music, and A Tribe Called Quest is probably the next funkiest artist on the ballot.
In the end: When Fela Kuti returned to the ballot this year, the Hall was probably expecting a lot of the same enthusiasm to be reflected in the fan ballot. And then the nation of Nigeria rose up on Twitter and gave the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame the middle finger. "Fool me once, shame on you, Rock Hall," seemed to be the consensus opinion, and the Hall looked pretty bad for it, for their tactics which are business-as-usual in North America, but apparently culturally unacceptable for them. Especially the spam email they kept getting hit with. I think there's a real chance that the Hall will induct Fela Kuti in Award For Musical Excellence as a way to extend an olive branch without actually making an apology to fans of Fela from far away. Just don't tell those fans that Award For Musical Excellence isn't the same as a Performer induction, that it's not the same honor, despite how much John Sykes insists it is and shovels it into the fire. Afrobeat isn't getting the votes though, so here... Odds of induction: 33.33%
13. RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
Politically charged nu metal band. Fourth nomination, seeded #8 for 2018, #11 for 2019, and #13 for 2021.
Why they might make it: The insider nature of the Hall bodes very well for this band, with guitarist Tom Morello being on the Nominating Committee. Additionally, the Hall loves politically charged music, and they were that. They were also innovative in their sound.
Why they might not: They are a band you know the name of, and may even relate to the ethos of the name itself, but you might not know any of their actual songs.
Whom they'd pave the way for: Getting this band in could refocus efforts to other hard bands of the era, particularly grunge, and garner a return nomination for Soundgarden, and maybe a nomination for Alice In Chains.
Biggest threats: Judas Priest is the most obvious competitor. Pat Benatar is a hard-edged rocker that could steal votes as well. And if the voters want politically charged music that comes from a more authentic place, they might throw their votes to Fela Kuti instead. And don't ignore the potential for early punk rock like the MC5 and New York Dolls.
In the end: They're starting to become old hat, but it's obvious they're not going away, they're going in. Just not this time.. Odds of induction: 30%
14. DEVO
Post-punk, art-rock band from Ohio. Third nomination, seeded dead last at #15 for 2019, and #9 for 2021.
Why they might make it: The Hall loves to reward artistic creativity, and these guys had it. Their music was fun but powerful, they had a gimmick, and they are innovators.
Why they might not: They might be a little too far out there for some, and a one-trick pony to others.
Whom they'd pave the way for: They might pave the way for an avant-garde act like They Might Be Giants to get inducted. Their music is fun at parties too, so maybe acts like the B-52's or Violent Femmes.
Biggest threats: Duran Duran and Eurythmics occupy a similar sonic space, and Kate Bush is also rather high art music, like them.
In the end: This is one of those acts that, if and when they do get in, it'll be to everyone's surprise. They're a band that we can point to with what's wrong with the induction process, allowing voters to only vote for five, and only allowing five to seven Performer inductees per year. Or just point to any "categoried" inductee that could/should be a Performer. In any event, they're not getting in this time. Odds of induction: 25%
15. THE NEW YORK DOLLS
Early punk-rock band. Third nomination, unseeded their first nomination, seeded #15 for 2021.
Why they might make it: They were highly innovative and influential, both in terms of their music and their image, and the critics loved them.
Why they might not: Outside a few of the big names, punk rock really isn't having an easy time getting into the Hall. Additionally, they really never had major commercial success, and their circle of influence attenuates sharply the further you get from New York City.
Whom they'd pave the way for: They were also progenitors of glam in a way, so maybe the Sweet gets looked at? Or maybe just punk rock acts like the Dead Kennedys.
Biggest threats: The MC5 are the most obvious and direct competition. Judas Priest is there for those who'd rather have metal than punk. Pat Benatar and Rage Against The Machine are also threats to them.
In the end: This is just the third nomination for the New York Dolls, but their return last year was quite unexpected. This will be interesting to watch and see how much patience the Hall and certain members of the Nominating Committee actually have. I think there's a very real shot for them to be inducted in Early Influence this year, despite my despisal for this type of shenanigans. But with only three nominations, maybe the Hall isn't ready to do that to them yet. We'll know shortly. Meanwhile... Odds of induction: 20%
16. KATE BUSH
Experimental British musician. Third nomination, seeded #17 (but not dead last) for 2018, and dead last at #16 for 2021.
Why she might make it: The Hall loves the artistic, experimental musicians, and Kate is most definitely that and then some. Additionally, the inductions of Roxy Music and T. Rex show that the Americentric bias in the ranks of the voting bloc is starting to erode and crumble. Lastly, remembering how the ceremony went last year, they could easily give her the Todd Rundgren treatment, with a pre-recorded acceptance speech from Kate, much like Tina Turner did, and get her induction over quickly and painlessly, thereby freeing up more room.
Why she might not: There's still a strong Americentric presence in the Hall, and artists who work on their own timeline with no deadlines have trouble staying in the spotlight. Not that she coveted it, but we're discussing what helps and what hurts getting into the Hall.
Whom she'd pave the way for: Tori Amos is the most direct descendant of Kate Bush, stylistically, and thus would benefit the most. Bjork is another artist in that vein who could get some consideration.
Biggest threats: She's got competition from many directions. Devo, Eurythmics, Duran Duran, and Pat Benatar all come from the formative days of MTV like Kate; Carly Simon, Dolly Parton, and Dionne Warwick are also strong female presences that could be competition; and Beck is a fellow iconoclast that occupies a similar, albeit not parallel, space as her.
In the end: Much like Beck, Kate Bush seemed to have fallen out of the discussion for awhile, until she rebounded back into it somehow. Too little too late though, in my opinion. Odds of induction: 15%
17. THE MC5
Hard-rocking proto-punk band from Michigan. Sixth nomination. Their first nomination for 2003 predates my seeding system, seeded #12 in 2017, #14 for both 2018 and 2019, and #15 for 2020.
Why they might make it: They're an extremely innovative and influential band, helping to give rise to punk rock as a subgenre of rock and roll.
Why they might not: They just don't have the name recognition. They're not well-known enough to stand out above some of the other names. Also, with Kraftwerk having been made an Early Influence inductee, how much more so the MC5? The ballot fatigue makes it look like this will happen.
Whom they'd pave the way for: There are some punk or hardcore punk acts that could get nominated, like Black Flag, or nominated again, like Bad Brains.
Biggest threats: The New York Dolls, Judas Priest, Pat Benatar, and Rage Against The Machine are the most like the MC5 in terms of sound.
In the end: At this point, y'all know how much I abhor the redefinition so they can jury-rig a solution without addressing the main problem of only allowing voters to vote for five and only inducting five to seven Performer inductees. Drum beaten, horse dead. Yadda yadda yadda. In the current reality that makes me roll my eyes, it's been declared inevitable by those hip to the Rock Hall Ruse that this group will be called an "Early Influence." Abandon all hope of a Performer induction. Odds of induction: 10%
And with that, we have sown the seeds, but not sewn up the discussion. My predictions run pretty much the same as Nick Bambach's, which shouldn't be too surprising, since I believe both of us nailed all six Performer inductees last year. Anyway, this is just a prediction and not a preference. I'd honestly be just as happy to be wrong as I would to be right, happier in fact. Sadly, with a White rapper on the ballot, I think that may allow the Rock Hall voters to represent music predominantly made by African-American artists without actually voting for any African-American artists. It's a thready, tenuous trend I've been noticing, and one that I can only articulate very clumsily, so I won't try to expound on it. But the result is, I'm predicting no People Of Color to get in this year as a Performer.
As for the other categories, the Non-Performer category is anyone's guess, but if used, it'll be someone with their hooks in the Hall in some way, shape, form, or fashion. Years ago, Roger Friedman at Fox News claimed to have uncovered a collusion of sorts to induct one person one year (I think it was David Geffen in 2010), and then Doug Morris the next year. The first one he predicted did get in, but Doug Morris still hasn't. It wouldn't be a surprise if he did at some point, especially after Clarence Avant got in. But as for the other two categories, we could see them used to remove a few more names off this year's ballot that don't get the votes As mentioned above, I think there's a strong possibility for the MC5 and New York Dolls to get the Early Influence treatment. I really hope not, but at this point, it feels like holding back the tide with a broom. And in the Award For Musical Excellence category, there's a good chance we could see Dolly Parton inducted there, after all the hubbub and confusion her attempt to withdraw caused. And as mentioned before, I also think it's possible for Fela Kuti to get in this way this year as a half-hearted and half-assed peace offering to the nation of Nigeria after last year's disappointment, which honestly is little more than a failure to communicate the reality as opposed to what they believed. And to bring up a name that we quickly noticed wasn't nominated, agreed would get an Award For Musical Excellence induction this time, and stopped talking about for the past three months, I also suspect we will see Chaka Khan inducted this year in this category. Pat Benatar is the one name from the list of inductee hopefuls that I created back in 2004 who is on the ballot this year, but if Chaka gets in, her name was on that list as well, so hopefully one of those two will extend my streak. We'll know soon enough.
