But in the end: Seeds for 2025

 And now the post that I'm dreading.  Making the predictions is agonizing for me, but it's part of the game.  How many of the fourteen nominees will be Performer inductees?  I have a feeling it'll be seven, exactly half of the ballot.  Last year they did the bare majority, but I think with an even number, they'll keep it at half.  I could be wrong about that; it wouldn't be the first time.  So, this is not about who I want to make it, but who will make it, in my opinion.  Also, odds are completely arbitrary:  the math will almost certainly not math like math should math.  The math is irrelevant.  Time to cut the stalling and make predictions for the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame's Class Of 2025, in the Performer category. 

1. BILLY IDOL

Rock and pop soloist from the 1980s, previously in the band Generation X.  First-time nominee.

Why he might make it:  He's got a rock and roll image, with the leather, the sneer, and the hair, and a pretty reliable catalog of traditional-sounding rock music.  Additionally, he seems to be pretty beloved among fellow people in the music industry.  Just a huge upswing in reputation overall.

Why he might not:  Not a particularly lengthy run at the top.  Decimated by grunge, and he may be considered too crossover to maintain the punk cred he had from Generation X.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  I could see him kicking down the door for some actual punk from the '80s like the Dead Kennedys, but also for some other rockers with mainstream success like Bryan Adams or INXS.  And possibly even the Runaways, or if Tommy James is part of the induction ceremony, maybe Tommy James And The Shondells.

Biggest threats:  Cyndi Lauper is a fellow highly visible figure of the MTV formative years that is also on the ballot.  In terms of pure rockers, I think Joe Cocker is a competing soloist, while the Black Crowes and Bad Company are fellow meat-and-potatoes rockers.  I'd also call Joy Division / New Order a threat with the synthy sensibilities.

In the end:  It's easy to forget that the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame is an industry award, and with whom you have unburnt bridges sometimes means more than actual accomplishments.  Idol has just enough of both of those to be the top seed.  Odds of induction:  90%

2. OUTKAST

Hip-hop duo from the '90s and '00s.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  The lane for hip-hop is cleared for them.  Also, they made hip-hop that was accessible to White people over the age of 30.  A lot of hits, well-known.  Well-respected.

Why they might not:  Because despite its defeat, the purist sentiment that hip-hop is not rock and roll still simmers and slides among some official voters.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Outkast is a pressing, urgent insistence by fans and music lovers in general.  Once they're in, I see the NomComm going back and finally going after De La Soul, Queen Latifah, and Salt-N-Pepa.

Biggest threats:  Marian Carey is really the only other act on the ballot that has any hip-hop cred.

In the end:  I just about had them as the #1 seed.  I really don't see them failing.  They're in.  Odds of induction:  85%

3. BAD COMPANY

Classic, arena, post-British Invasion rock guitar band.  First-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  Classic rock is a safe bet for induction.  The bands from that era tend to sail right into the Hall.  Also, Paul Rodgers is such a noted and respected figure, honoring him in some capacity is virtually an end unto itself.

Why they might not:  The classic rock bands still not in are generally considered at least a full tier below the acts that got in twenty to thirty years ago.  The worthiness of these acts is a little more questionable.  

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Styx, Kansas, Boston, Jethro Tull, Bryan Adams, to name a few.

Biggest threats:  Joe Cocker can be considered classic rock, the Black Crowes are a band influenced by those kinds of bands and could snare some votes.  Same for the White Stripes.  And if Bad Company is considered a good live act, Phish could pull votes away.

In the end:  The appetite for "classic rock" will never be satiated until every act that played on a classic rock station during the '90s and '00s is inducted, all the way down to Malo and the Pat Travers Band.  The only way there is saturation of "rock bands" on a ballot is if there are more nominated than can be voted for.  Odds of induction:  80%

4. CYNDI LAUPER

Pop songstress from the 1980s.  Second nomination, seeded #10 in 2023.

Why she might make it:  Her songs are super catchy, memorable, and enduring.  Her image is unmistakable, and her reputation has only risen in the past few years.

Why she might not:  Another act that lost mainstream clout by the early '90s, she didn't have the kind of longevity that conquered adversity.  Also, she was often compared to Madonna at the time, and may be seen to pale in comparison.

Whom she'd pave the way for:  She could possibly open doors for other pop acts that were big on MTV during the '80s, such as Huey Lewis And The News or even Paula Abdul.

Biggest threats:  Mariah Carey is the other female superstar, Billy Idol is another MTV staple with an iconic style that grunge demolished when Nirvana broke big, Joy Division/New Order could gnaw away from her dance club cache, and Chubby Checker is another festive artist who appeals to the poptimists.  

In the end:  The lane's not completely clear for her, but I do think she has something for everyone, which will make her a popular choice to vote for.  She's so unusual, in a good way.  Odds of induction:  75%

5. JOE COCKER

British solo artist known for his interpretations.  First-time nominee.

Why he might make it:  He's got the Paul McCartney seal of approval, as well as the Billy Joel approval.  Plus, he was at Woodstock.  And nearly everyone likes his version better than Ringo's.

Why he might not:  He was a song interpreter, and originality tends to be more highly valued.  Plus, his output was kinda sporadic, and his two biggest hits were schmaltzy ballads.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  Michael Bolton?  Okay, probably not.  But maybe they'll revisit Warren Zevon for people respected by fellow musicians, or maybe a soul singer from the '70s like Teddy Pendergrass.

Biggest threats:  Chubby Checker is the other nominee who had hits in the '60.  Bad Company is a fellow classic rock act.  Oasis sounded like the Beatles, and Joe covered the Beatles, so there's a lateral connection there.

In the end:  Again, classic rock is a safe bet, and Cocker's music embraces and embodies a spirit or a vibe of an era, and voters will have no issue enshrining it.  But I'm not as confident here.  Odds of induction:  60%

6. SOUNDGARDEN

Grunge pioneer band.  Third nomination, seeded #9 for 2020 and #12 in 2023.

Why they might make it:  The Hall reveres the name and legacy of Chris Cornell.  Plus, they're a highly innovative band, near the start of the grunge revolution.

Why they might not:   They didn't have a ton of crossover appeal, and this being their third nomination, it's getting harder for them to cross the line.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Alice In Chains would be the last of the Big Four of grunge, but other bands like Smashing Pumpkins and Stone Temple Pilots seem to be intentionally held up until this band gets in.

Biggest threats:  The White Stripes and the Black Crowes are the two '90s bands with the edgy guitar sounds, and in terms of alternative cred, Phish could be a disruptive influence.

In the end:  Being the band with the most nominations as well as a pioneer in a subgenre, I'm betting the impetus to get them in is a little heavier than with some of the other bands.  Odds of induction:  55%

7. CHUBBY CHECKER

Solo artist credited with helping kick off the dance craze in the early 1960s.  First-time nominee.

Why he might make it:  Arguably has the most name recognition of any of the nominees.  He's a pre-Beatles rock and roller who was a catalyst for a major, yet short-lived movement with a song that everybody knows, and any inductee from the first ten to fifteen years who is still with us and has a ballot will not hesitate to check his name.

Why he might not:  In addition to arguments some make about him being an unoriginal one-trick pony, he also has a reputation for being off-putting to even fans who aren't completely sycophantic.  Basically, the opposite of Billy Idol.  That, and his contentious relationship with the Hall that I previously referred to as "thirsty," they may be hesitant to reward that with their vote.  Lastly, being from the early '60s, some may figure they'll just induct him in a side category and not waste their vote on him.

Whom he'd pave the way for:  Hard to say, as the Oldies acts that are viable candidates to be nominated is shrinking.  But we thought the same thing about him, so... the Marvelettes could get another nomination, the Monkees could finally make the ballot, or possibly Tommy James And The Shondells or Paul Revere And The Raiders.  Other soloists from that era, such as Freddy Cannon or Gary U.S. Bonds could also benefit.

Biggest threats:  Joe Cocker is the only other one that might get played on Oldies radio, and Bad Company is a nostalgia act too.  Mariah Carey is the only one whose name recognition rivals his.

In the end:  Even the pundit community is split on this one.  Some saying it's obvious, others saying not a chance, and one or two think it'll be a side category.  As I type this, the episode of "Rock In Retrospect" where Nick and I discuss Chubby Checker just dropped.  Nick strongly believes that the surprise of Chubby not being in the Hall already will carry him in immediately.  I'm cautiously optimistic.  With trepidation...  Odds of induction:  50%

8. PHISH

Jam band from the '90s, first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They're running away with the fan ballot, and with the Hall's lack of transparency and the induction ceremony being such a huge fundraising event for the Foundation, they could be that surprise eighth inductee needed to sell tickets and pack the venue.  Additionally, they have pretty high name recognition.

Why they might not:  If this is supposed to be about the music, they're in trouble.  They're a band you know the name of but can't name a song of theirs.  And when it comes to the music, even the fans can get dismissive of the studio albums, which can be a deterrent to newcomers from getting into them, as the studio albums were the traditional gate from being a casual listener to a fan.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  With the Dave Matthews Band already in, Phish is really the only other jam band that the Hall may deem pertinent: I don't seem them going for Moe, for example.  I think this will simply see them turn towards other '90s bands such as No Doubt.

Biggest threats:  The White Stripes, the Black Crowes, and Soundgarden would all be considered as possibly crowding the lane for Phish.  Sonically, Oasis and Mana are the closest to Phish.

In the end:  It really all depends on how much the tail wags the dog.  There are other bands that could be the headliner for the ceremony, but none of them are as sure a bet to show up and be willing to perform as Phish would be.  If Meg White had said she'd show up and play, or if Oasis were a little less stiff in their upper lip about accepting American accolades, I'd say no way.  As it is, I think they might still miss, but if there's an eighth inductee again, I'd bet on them to nab the final seat on the bus.  Odds of induction:  49%

9. THE WHITE STRIPES

Garage-rock duo, most popular in the '00s.  Second nomination, seeded #7 for 2023

Why they might make it:  They're a newer rock band whose brand resonates with the old guard, and they're the "rock" nominee on the ballot that has the most recent cultural relevance.

Why they might not:  There hasn't been nearly as much buzz surrounding their nomination this time around as there has been for other nominees or for their last nomination, even.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  It seems Coldplay's nomination is contingent upon the White Stripes getting in, but it could also be a prelude for eventual nominations of acts from the new millennium, like My Bloody Valentine.

Biggest threats:  The Black Crowes, Oasis, and Soundgarden are probably the closest alternatives.

In the end:  The buzz around the White Stripes this time has been pretty low to non-existent.  That said, never rule out the quiet ones.  This could be a good sign.  Good enough to place them as the "If 8 upset special."  But I think the Hall is on a current kick of playing catch-up, and the White Stripes are the most recent act on the ballot.  Odds of induction:  45%

10. OASIS

Britpop band fronted by the Gallagher brothers.  Second nomination, seeded #11 in 2024

Why they might make it:  They were the biggest Britpop band, at least here in America, and with influences that draw so heavily from the Beatles, their sound is one that will go over well with older voters.  Plus, with the reunion in the works right now, this could be a heavily anticipated event to cap off with an induction.

Why they might not:  Even with the reunion in the works, it's still no guarantee that Liam and Noel will still be on speaking terms by the boreal autumn, and even if they are, that's still no guarantee that they'll care enough about the Hall to show up for their induction.  And even as the biggest Britpop act in the States, they still didn't have a ton of crossover to mainstream success.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  Blur, maybe. and other acts from England that were bigger there than here.  For some reason, Muse comes to mind.

Biggest threats:  Phish is similarly melodic.  The Black Crowes and White Stripes could steal votes.  And let's include Mana, because why not.

In the end:  It's rare to say this about the guitar band contingency, as it is a lane that does not crowd easily, but the lane is crowded for Oasis this year.  They could pull off an upset, but I think they're left out for the second year in a row.  Odds of induction:  40%

11. JOY DIVISION / NEW ORDER

Post-punk band that evolved into a dance music band.  Second nomination, seeded #11 in 2023

Why they might make it:  They're a highly innovative and influential outfit, where both incarnations have been highly influential and innovative.

Why they might not:   Post-punk and the different styles that it spawned have not had an easy time getting enshrined into the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame.  And a lot of people are not hearing a natural evolution from one era to the other, and thus aren't onboard with this joint nomination.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  I think an induction here would help open the door for revisiting the Smiths or the Replacements, or maybe dance acts such as the Pet Shop Boys.

Biggest threats:  Billy Idol and Cyndi Lauper are the sonically closest to Joy Division / New Order, and Soundgarden and Phish have similar underground cred.

In the end:  The Smiths failed twice, the Replacements missed once.  This is a part of the rock and roll diaspora that has a very tough time getting in.  The Cure did it, but the Cure had more hits than New Order.  They have a sneaky chance, but I don't have a lot of hope on this one.  Odds of induction:  35%

12. MARIAH CAREY

R&B-pop songstress and songwriter.  Second nomination, seeded #9 in 2024

Why she might make it:  She's the single-most commercially successful artist on the ballot.  She's a name everyone knows with a multiple songs that they know.  A true superstar, and additionally, she's received an iHeart award recently, which is a connection to chairman John Sykes.  Plus, with fewer women on the ballot this year, it seems like there's an effort to clear the lane for her.

Why she might not:  So. Much. Industry. Hate.  Even this cycle, in chatting with people, I had someone telling me they could never vote for her because of what she did to Tommy Mottola, that she only dated him so she could use him and advance her career, and because she dumped him, it must be that she didn't love him and was only using him--completely ignoring the possibilities that he also used her, or that maybe the relationship simply ran its course and was genuine, or any number of other plausible realities.  People hate her for this.  There's also the conspiracy theory that during the '90s, her sales were inflated by her record company buying up large amounts of the releases to artificially increase her numbers and make her chart higher than she deserved.  Additionally, any member of the general public who has worked in retail during the holiday season hates her for "All I Want For Christmas Is You."

Whom she'd pave the way for:  I think it's very plausible they held up a Pink nomination to get Mariah in first; there's also a slim to middling chance that Britney Spears or Christina Aguilera could eventually follow through after Mariah.

Biggest threats:  Chubby Checker is a huge name as well.  Cyndi Lauper is the other female star on the ballot, and Outkast has a versatile style that includes R&B and hip-hop.

In the end:  By all appearances, the Hall is trying to clear the path for Mariah to get in.  But there were also a couple ballots where they tried to do that for LL Cool J, and look what ended up happening.  Still, getting nominated twice in a row isn't all bad news.  If she can make it three in a row next year, her odds will improve immensely.  This year, however... Odds of induction:  30%

13. THE BLACK CROWES

Rock band from the '90s.  First nomination.

Why they might make it:  They're a traditional rock band in the mold and tradition of a lot of classic rock bands, to the point where Jimmy Page has performed with them.  That's some respect from the old guard.

Why they might not:  Being in a similar mold and tradition is sometimes a polite way of calling a band "unoriginal."  Also, they didn't maintain mainstream popularity for terribly long, having only a handful of songs that the general populace remembers.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  It sounds like a joke, but I could see the Black Crowes opening the door for Counting Crows.  The Jayhawks are on the Previously Considered list, and could be next.  Knowing who nominated them at the Feast Of The Hoagie, though, I'll also include Television and possibly X.

Biggest threats:  Bad Company is the classic rock band that spawned acts like the Black Crowes, Phish is the '90s band in the lead in the fan vote, and the White Stripes and Soundgarden are other rock bands that some might consider more original and thereby more interesting.

In the end:  When they were first announced as nominees, I was unimpressed.  I have respect for their ability to continue to put out music and just rock out, but it's just not for me.  And I think enough voters think they can wait for their turn.  A long time for their turn.  Odds of induction:  20%

14. MANÁ

Rock en Espannol heavyweights, first-time nominee.

Why they might make it:  They represent something new and interesting.  Their nomination shows a cultural awareness and a broadening of horizons that is easily spun as showcasing the worldwide effects of what is arguably the United States Of America's greatest export.

Why they might not:  Most of the voting body is not fluent in Spanish and does not know their songs  Many of them have never even heard of this band.

Whom they'd pave the way for:  This was such a huge leap, they'd have to backpedal to get to some of the links along the way, including Los Lobos, Selena, and Gloria Estefan And The Miami Sound Machine.

Biggest threats:  Their own obscurity in America (I was literally chatting tonight with a half-Hispanic friend who lives in SoCal, and he'd never heard of them).  If we're looking for competitors on the ballot, Phish has a good time feel, as does Cyndi Lauper, Chubby Checker, and Oasis.

In the end:  Lol, no.  It's symbolic of the kind of vision the Hall needs to embrace more.  The Foundation to some degree thinks so, at least when they nominate acts like this one and Fela Kuti.  The Museum seems to embrace that vision, too.  But the voting body clearly does not.  Odds of induction:  1%

So there are my seeds.  My predictions.  My fate that I cast to the wind.  How well will I have done?  We will know soon.  As a piece of housekeeping, I don't know if I'll be able to get a ballot reaction post up when the news comes out.  I've got some personal matters to attend to that will require a lot of my time, energy, and concentration.  If I do post a reaction, it'll be very pell-mell, hastily edited, and maybe not very coherent.  Just a heads-up to you, my readers, that there are other forces in my life coming, converging on these next couple months.  See you on the other side.